Link Report for Friday 7/31 -- Dramatic Win in Nashville

[Mass Haas]

Final: Montgomery (Rays) 4, Huntsville 3, ten innings

Huntsville Site Game Summary

 

Biscuits Win in Last At-Bat, Again

Missed Opportunities Hurt Huntsville in Defeat

By Brett Pollock / Huntsville Stars

 

Pedro Powell singled in the game-winning run with one out in the bottom of the tenth inning to carry Montgomery to a 4-3 walk-off win over Huntsville Friday night in the last of a five-game set at Riverwalk Stadium. The Biscuits took the last four games of the set to raise their record to 16-19 in the second half and 49-56 overall, while the Stars slipped to 14-21 in the second half and 52-52 overall.

 

Rob Wooten retired all six batters he faced, fanning the side in the ninth, and gave way to Juan Sandoval to open the tenth. Cody Cipriano lined his first pitch into center field for a hit, moved to second base on a Matt Spring sacrifice bunt and scored when Powell singled into left field and Drew Anderson's throw home sailed high and wide of catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Sandoval suffered the loss to fall to 3-3, while Eddie Morlan earned the win to improve to 5-4. Morlan struck out Lucroy and got Taylor Green to fly out with the bases loaded and one out in the ninth and induced Michael Garciaparra to ground into an inning-ending double play in the top of the tenth with two runners on. The Stars stranded a dozen base runners over the last eight innings to lose in walk-off fashion for a second straight night.

 

Lucroy's leadoff long ball in the second inning gave the Stars a 1-0 lead and marked the second straight night they had scored first after the Biscuits had tallied first in the first three games of the series. It was only the sixth home run allowed by Biscuits' starter Brandon Mann in 88 innings. Chris Nowak led off the bottom half of the frame with his second home run since rejoining the Biscuits to tie the game at one.

 

Lucroy and Green singled to open the fourth and advanced on a Lorenzo Cain sacrifice bunt that was fielded by the catcher Spring, which left home plate vacated. Lucroy dashed in from third to score, as Mann was breaking toward the plate and unable to corral a throw from first baseman Matt Fields, which also allowed Green to advance to third base. Kevin Melillo followed with a sacrifice fly to plate Green to make it 3-1 Stars.

 

Rashad Eldridge led off the home sixth with a double, moved to third base on a Brandon Chaves single and scored to trim the visitors' lead to 3-2 when Fernando Cortez grounded into a double play. Stars' starter David Welch was then lifted after 5 2/3 frames, giving up seven hits and striking out two and was followed to the hill by Mike McClendon, who gave up a single to Nowak, who then stole second and scored to tie the game on a base hit by Cody Strait.

 

Mann was lifted in the seventh with two runners on and one out and replaced by Ryan Reid, who got Shane Justis to bounce into a force play at second base and struck out Anderson to end the threat. Mann left with a no-decision after yielding six hits, walking two and striking out three. The Stars put runners at the corners with one out in the eighth but failed to score, as Reid fanned Melillo and Chuck Caufield to end the inning.

 

Huntsville opens a five-game series in Jacksonville on Saturday night with right-hander Mike Jones taking the hill against Suns' right-hander Nic Ungs. Coverage of the game begins at 5:50 PM central time and can be heard through the internet at www.huntsvillestars.com.

 

Huntsville Box Score

My fellow staffer pogokat compared Jonathan Lucroy to Jason Kendall this week -- I'm very comfortable with Lucroy's .758 OPS, 27 extra-base hits, including the seven HR's, and 61 walks vs. 50 K's...

 

Huntsville Game Log

[Mass Haas]

Final: Nashville 7, New Orleans (Marlins) 6

Nashville Site Game Summary:

Link for Joe Koshansky photo, text follows --

 

Sounds Come From Behind To Beat Zephyrs, 7-6

 

NASHVILLE - The Nashville Sounds came from behind to score four runs in the final two innings to top the New Orleans Zephyrs, 7-6, on Friday night in front of 9,462 fans, the largest crowd at historic Greer Stadium this season.

 

Jesus Colome (1-0) and Matt Ginter combined to hold the Zephyrs scoreless over the final four frames while allowing just one hit and one walk in the process.

 

Joe Koshansky was a double short of the cycle, going 4-for-4 with three RBIs and two runs scored.

 

The win gave the Sounds a series split and was the fifth victory of the season when trailing in the eighth inning or later.

 

The Sounds took an early 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning on Bill Hall's Triple-A debut for 2009. Outfielder Jason Bourgeois walked on four straight pitches to begin the game, with Hall later singling to right field and to score Bourgeois for a 1-0 lead.

 

Dave Matranga's two-out double in the next frame plated catcher Neil Wilson from first base to tie the game at one.

 

Koshansky then gave the Sounds a 2-1 lead in the second inning with his 17th home run of the season, a solo shot to right field that landed on Chestnut Street. Koshansky's home run was the first recorded by a Sounds player in the last 11 games.

 

New Orleans went ahead in the next frame on John Lindsey's 18th home run of the season, a three-run shot to left field that put the Zephyrs in front at 4-2. Dave Matranga later added his sixth homer and extended the New Orleans lead to 5-2 in the next inning.

 

Nashville cut the lead to 5-3 in the next frame after Adam Heether walked to begin the inning. Koshansky hit another bomb off the outfield wall in right-center to score Heether with a triple, and was thrown out by the third baseman trying to score from third.

 

The Zephyrs went back up by three in the next inning on another home run. Michael Ryan hit a deep shot down the right field line that landed on Chestnut Street, his 14th of the year.

 

The Sounds got another one back in the bottom of the seventh after Koshansky and Patrick Arlis singled to reach base. Bourgeois followed with an RBI-single to score Koshansky and cut the lead to 6-4. Later in the inning, Hall came up to bat with the bases juiced with two outs and hit an infield single to third that plated Arlis, bringing the Sounds within one.

 

Koshansky tied the game at six in the bottom of the eighth with his fourth hit and third RBI of the game, singling to right field. Arlis then hit the game-winning base hit to right field that scored Koshansky and put the Sounds ahead for good at 7-6.

 

AUDIO: Patrick Arlis' Game Winning Single

 

Brett Sinkbeil (2-7) took the loss after allowing two runs on two hits in the eighth inning for New Orleans.

 

Sounds starter Nick Green gave up six runs on eight hits including three home runs in five innings of work.

 

Bourgeois extended his hitting streak to nine games, while Arlis' hitting streak moved to seven contests in the victory.

 

The Sounds welcome the Albuquerque Isotopes to historic Greer stadium for the opener of a four-game series at 6:00 PM CT on Saturday night, their last visit to Music City this season. Southpaw Chris Cody (4-6, 4.20) makes the start for Nashville against Albuquerque left-hander Eric Stults (4-1, 4.00)

 

Nashville Box Score

Fun contest; where's Angel? Yes, we know -- banged up, understandable but discouraging...

 

Nashville Game Log

[jjfanec]

My fellow staffer pogokat compared Jonathan Lucroy to Jason Kendall this week -- I'm very comfortable with Lucroy's .758 OPS, 27 extra-base hits, including the seven HR's, and 61 walks vs. 50 K's...

Not to mention Lucroy has had an OPS over .800 the last two months. His BABip in play is starting to creep back toward .300 (still around .280 from what I can find). His career low for BABip in play is .330. With a little more luck (I guess with a little less lack of luck) he would be hitting about .280 and with his power coming back the last two months I think it is hard to compare him to Kendall.

[dadofandrew]

Lucroy's 23, in AA, and has mle's of .207/.304/.310...needless to say, a comparison to any starting MLB catcher is very optimistic at this point. He still profiles as a backup at best, and since I haven't heard he's Blanco-like defensively, that might be close to his ceiling.

 

Compare his AA numbers to a younger Salome last year...scary.

[TheCrew07]

It was also Angel's 4th full MiLB season, this is Lucroy's 2nd, and in my opinion the MLE argument is the most hollow argument out there. It doesn't take development into account and no one is saying that Lucroy is Milwaukee's best option at C this season or he'll be Braun. Taylor Green's MLE's have him at at a .612 OPS so I guess he has no value either. Braddock's FIP MLE is 5.12... he must suck. Maybe Gindl's .624 MLE OPS makes him less of a prospect? Lawrie is our worst position prospect because his MLE OPS is only .514 and Chris Dennis has a .604 MLE OPS?

[Mike]

Please educate me. For what does MLE stand?

[Mike]

Schafer's walk rate remains weak, but shines compared to Lee Haydel's

I would like to start a friendly debate about Maas' above comment, namely what is an acceptable walk to K ratio? Clearly Haylel's is too low, but Schafer's is OK. Especially when you add in a players OPS. Through yesterdays games, I have listed below their respective BB/K/ratio sorted by best to worst. Please peruse and let the debate begin.

Player	BB	K	Ratio
Kendall	33	35	0.943
Kemp	50	56	0.893
Prince	73	90	0.811
Farris	36	46	0.783
Gindl	50	75	0.667
Lawrie	37	58	0.638
Cam	57	92	0.620
Schafer	23	40	0.575
Braun	40	77	0.519
Hart	35	82	0.427
Wilson	34	88	0.386
Haydel	14	81	0.173

You could argue that though Kendall's is the best ratio, it does not matter as much because his OPS is so low. Look how valuable Fielder's is? 2nd in ratio and proabably the best OPS? Schafer's K's are 2nd lowest behind Kendall, but carries an .816 OPS.

 

Gindl's ratio is low but his OPS is north of .830! And what about Braun? Nobody is complaining of his low BB/K ratio and that is because his OPS is high.

 

My point is sometimes a walk that is not taken is turned into an extra base hit which raises OPS. Clearly, K's in and of themselves are bad especially when they could have been a BB, but we have no way of determining that. I think a BB/K ratio above .600 is great as long as the K's are less than 0.5 per game played.

[jjfanec]

Lucroy's 23, in AA, and has mle's of .207/.304/.310...needless to say, a comparison to any starting MLB catcher is very optimistic at this point. He still profiles as a backup at best, and since I haven't heard he's Blanco-like defensively, that might be close to his ceiling.

 

Compare his AA numbers to a younger Salome last year...scary.

No one is say Lucroy should be playing in the majors right now so MLE's do not make much sense. I am much more concerned with what his MLE's are when he is in AAA next year. Most catchers do not come in at as young of age as other position prospects, they take a little longer to develop. Lucroy just turned 23 so he will also be 23 at the start of next year, this is his second full year of pro-ball so it is not like he is old.

You are underrating Lucroy so much. He actually had a better OPS than Salome A+. Lucroy is having a down year offensively, but he still has a better OPS than Salome does. AA was Salome's only really good year since low A ball.

[dadofandrew]

Gindl and Lawrie are what, 19 or 20? They are far from ready for the show, and the numbers show it. Lucroy is several years older, and only at AA, and looks like he'll have to repeat it, based on his struggles. Many of the guys mentioned, Dennis and the like, are fringe prospects, at best.

 

MLE is major league equivalent, they translate team and league to MLB. Most players are not very impressive...which makes sense, because most minor leaguers never see the bigs.

 

Salome has finally hit a bit of a wall at AAA, but has done better as the season progressed, exactly what you hope to see from a youngster, especially one as young as Salome is for his level. Actually, if you remove his April, he's done about as expected. Not sure if he may have still had back issues, had trouble seeing guys able to throw breaking stuff for a strike, or what, but he's right back on target to be an above average offensive MLB C...if his defense allows him to catch at that level.

 

For example, minus April, he's .300/.377, with April, Salome is .286/.340...the standard for catchers is so low, 677 OPS is not far below average, and he's improving.

[Mike]

Dad,

 

Where is this statistic located or is there some algorithm to derive it?

[dadofandrew]

Link

 

I assume it is some math nerd equation, using past history, park factors, and such. The one criticism of it is there should probably be some sort of age adjustment, as a guy like Vinny Rottino may have better stats than a guy like Salome, because of his AAA experience, but not fare any better in the bigs. However, it is not really designed to be used for projections, but rather as a tool to compare players in different ballparks, levels, and the like.

[jjfanec]

Salome has finally hit a bit of a wall at AAA, but has done better as the season progressed,

Cant you say the same thing for Lucroy? He has an OPS over .800 the last two months. I do not think the age difference is much of an issue on the two either. They are 5 days apart in age, however Salome has 3 more years in pro-ball compared to Lucroy. That is three more years with wood bats so I would say they are about equal age wise.

 

I just do not see why Salome is an above average offensive catcher yet Lucroy is at best a backup. In down years for both of them Lucroy is putting up slightly better numbers. Salome only has only one year above rookie ball better than Lucroy's seasons. Salome's BABip last year of .400 probably has a lot to do with why his numbers were so crazy last year. This year even with a high BABip (.332) he still has a poor OPS. I think Salome's insane year last year has made people look at him as a little better hitter than he really is, that combined with his poor defense makes him hard to project. Lucroy has solid defense, not great, but outside of the first two months of this year he has been a consistent above 800 OPS guy which is solid for a catching prospect.

 

One thing about Lucroy that is interesting to me is his terrible home numbers compared to on the road. He is just amazingly unlucky at home (a BABip of .198...that is almost unfathomable). His OPS on the road is .909 and at home it is .570.

[TheCrew07]

MLEs are worthless unless you're trying to project Escobar vs trading Hardy this season, and even then I think the MLEs are too low as they based on averages and obviously your more talented players are going to be better than average.

 

As far as the walk rate thing goes... generally I think a good walk rate is 1 per 10 PAs. Obviously every player isn't going to have the opportunity to take a walk. For example, no one is pitching around Hardy this season, but they are pitching around Fielder, so I would expect Fielder to have more walks than Hardy.

 

Ratio wise, obviously I'd like it to be as close 1 as possible, I'm not into worrying about the double play, I want balls in play. Reducing the strike outs gives a batter a better chance to get on base. I'm not so concerned about the ratio though, generally the ratio defines the type of a hitter a player is.