Elias Rankings (as of 7-29)

[nate82]

Why are you all caught up on the $1m part? It is an imaginary figure I have no idea why everyone in this forum takes everything so literally where every word is suppose to be something the Brewers would or should do or is something that is being proposed. The $1m was just an example there is a clue in the sentence that shows this and that clue word could and that should have given it away that it was just an example of what the Brewers "could" offer Kendall.

[monty57]

Nate, I think the hang-up is that you asserted that the Brewers could offer Kendall a small figure, which he would reject, and the Brewers would get a pick for him. That's not how the system works. The Brewers have to decide by a certain date whether or not they are going to offer arbitration to their free-agent-to-be players (no value given). The players then have to decide whether to reject arbitration and become a free agent or accept arbitration, which means they either come up with a contract or go into arbitration. If the player accepts arbitration, then both sides submit a blind offer (neither side knows what the other side offers until after both offers are made), and the offers are submitted to an arbitor (judge). Both sides present their case and the arbitor decides which of the two bids is more fair. Whatever the arbitor decides is binding on both sides.

 

I would guess the fact that the Brewers have played Kendall almost every day would work in his favor. It would be hard to argue that someone's not worth a pay raise when you have played him every day for two years. To FTJ's point, if the Brewers made a low-ball offer, the judge is almost certain to side with the player, no matter what their bid.

 

I would also guess that if the Brewers offered Kendall arbitration, he would almost certainly accept it. He makes $4.6MM this season, so even if the Brewers won the arby case, he'd be likely to make $4MM or so. If they wanted him back next year, it would be much safer for them to simply not offer arbitration and sign him as a free agent.

[endaround]

Players almost never get salary reductions in arbitration. It can happen but because of the way arbitration is handled it just doesn't happen.

[logan82]

To FTJ's point, if the Brewers made a low-ball offer, the judge is almost certain to side with the player, no matter what their bid.

 

That happened vrey recently with the Phillies and Howard. Players rarely get less in an arbitration hearing than their previous year's contract.

 

I believe you cannot submit an arby number that is less than 20% of the player's salary the previous year.

 

The club's salary offer to a player under its control (pre-free agency players) may not be less than 80% of the player's salary and performance bonuses the previous year or less than 70% of his salary and performance bonuses from 2 years earlier. (Exception: If a player won an arbitration award the previous year increasing his salary 50% or more, the 80% requirement does not apply.) The 80% rule does not apply to free agents who are offered arbitration. Link

[mothershipconnection]

Correct, you don't have to offer 80% of current salary to a guy in Kendall's situation. So, nate is correct that the Brewers can offer him whatever they want. However, they cannot just offer him next to nothing, and then he doesn't accept and they get a draft pick. If that were the case, EVERY SINGLE type A and B FA would be offered arbitration, as the team would take on zero risk - they just make a tiny arbitration offer and walk away when the player says no. Instead, once they say "yes", you're at the mercy of the results of an arbitration hearing if you can't reach a compromise before then. So there is a serious risk here that Kendall accepts and then is owed way more than he's worth to us.

 

The contract would not be guaranteed, though, so you technically can release the player before opening day with 30-45 days severance/termination pay. In Kendall's case, that could be $600K or so. You'd better be pretty sure you wanna keep him before he's offered arbitration.

[monty57]

Well, my best guesstimate with a roster of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Gamel, Salome/Lucroy, Braun, Gerut, Hart and a bench of Hall, Rivera, McGehee, Util IF (Iribarren?), OF, a starting rotation of Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, ? and bullpen of Coffey, Villy, Stetter, Swindle, Riske, DiFelice, ? would come to somewhere around $64-65MM.

 

Players almost never get salary reductions in arbitration. It can happen but because of the way arbitration is handled it just doesn't happen.

 

You're probably right, and with that in mind, here are the current salaries: Hoffman $6.0MM, Cameron $10.0MM, Lopez $1.5MM, Kendall $4.6MM Looper's option is for $6.0MM

 

A lot hinges on whether we're going to trade salary (Hardy, Hart, Fielder) or if we can find a sucker, I mean someone to take on Hall's contract. As it stands, it looks like we'll have around $15MM to cover a starting pitcher, a backup OF and some bullpen help. Looking at that, it may be too risky to offer Cam arby unless we know he won't accept. I think he's worth the money he's making, but we may not be able to afford it. If he accepts and we can't trade Hardy for a SP, we'd end up with someone like Burns as our 5th starter next year.

[Tbadder]

I think you hit it on the head. The real problem is Cameron--he's just too expensive. The lack of competitiveness this year is gonna hurt the Brewers next year (that, and a crappy economy of course). The Crew have to let Cam and Kendall and Looper walk--maybe Hoffman too. If they sign any of these guys they're virtually assured of losing money next year. Now, if Brewer fans respond at the gate next year even though we probably won't be competitive, and then Hall's contract comes off the board, I can see them making a big push the following year. Lopez and Hoffman are they only ones that make slam-dunk sense to offer arby to, and even then I want no part of Hoffman on a 75 to 85 win team.

[kramnoj]

Lopez and Hoffman are they only ones that make slam-dunk senseto offer arby to

 

Why is Lopez a slam dunk, and Cameron is too expensive? The Brewers don't really need Lopez next year, as they have at least two players in Weeks and Casey that can play 2B. The Brewers don't have anyone that can be expected to be even average next year in CF.

[Tbadder]

Because it's my belief that

 

a) Brewer attendance will be down a lot next year and money will be very tight, and

b) Lopez isn't going to accept arby and we'll net the 2nd rounder for sure, and

c) Hoffman while too expensive for a 75 to 85 win team in a bad economy, is still very tradeable once the season starts, or he signs with someone else and we get a sandwich and a second

 

Now, if one believes that the Brewers are close to winning 90 to 95 wins next year, and season ticket holders step up next year, then by all means go for the gold and resign Cameron, Hoffman, whoever strikes your fancy.

 

P.S. We've got Corey Patterson to replace Cameron with!!!!!!! Thee Corey Patterson, mighty Corey, the Corey-nator. Oh yeah, feels soooo good.

[kramnoj]

b) Lopez isn't going to accept arby and we'll net the 2nd rounder for sure, and

 

That doesn't qualify as a slum dunk for me. That's a pricey gamble.

[Monty]

As of 8/29, Lopez is a Type A free agent.

 

Link

[mothershipconnection]

As of 8/29, Lopez is a Type A free agent.

 

That sucks, because it makes him way less likely to turn down arbitration knowing that teams are gonna shy way away from him knowing that he'll cost a pick. The only teams that'd be after him then will be teams that have already signed higher ranked players and forfeited a higher pick or two.

[crewcrazy]

It would be nice to get two comp picks for Lopez, but unless he signs with a bottom 15 team, I don't see it happening. Lopez likely just got Tony Graffanino'd. Perhaps the Brewers could trade him if he accepts arby...IIRC, the Padres did something similar a few years ago when Todd Walker was unexpectedly a Type A.

[Never Outhustled]

Lopez is a couple of years younger than Orlando Hudson, and just as good. The Dodgers signed Hudson last year as a type A FA. Someone will want Lopez. He'd be a really good fit for the White Sox and Twins or the Dodgers again, as Hudson was only on a 1 year deal.

 

If Lopez actually accepted arby, we could just play him in a corner OF spot, and have great insurance for Weeks.

[endaround]

Until he pouts about not getting a huge multi year contract and plays how he did in Washington

[PeaveyFury]

Until he pouts about not getting a huge multi year contract and plays how he did in Washington

 

Or like he did in Arizona and Milwaukee this year?

[endaround]

The point is that Lopez has had a very good 1.5 seasons lately and a good season in 2005. Trying to predict if that Lopez shows up or the Lopez that played every other point in time is a gamble.

[Never Outhustled]

Trying to predict if that Lopez shows up or the Lopez that played every other point in time is a gamble.

A very cheap gamble. Lopez isa only making $3.5 million this year. What kind of raise do you think an arbitrator would give him in the odd case of him accepting arby to be Weeks backup?

[Fatter than Joey]

What kind of raise do you think an arbitrator would give him in the odd case of him accepting arby to be Weeks backup?

 

That's really hard to say, since the arbitrator picks one of the 2 salaries presented to him by the player and the team.

 

I would say Lopez is probably assured of a raise if he goes to Arby. I bet he will get over $5M -- he's performed pretty well.

 

If Lopez actually accepted arby, we could just play him in a corner OF spot, and have great insurance for Weeks.

 

The problem is -- is that if you put Lopez in a corner OF spot -- he can't be insurance for Weeks, as if you move him to 2nd you have a hole in the OF.

 

I guess, the bottom line to me, is that I don't want to see the Brewers pay $5M-$6M for a guy they don't have a starting job for.

 

Or like he did in Arizona and Milwaukee this year?

 

Since getting dumped by the Nats, Lopez has put up good numbers in STL, AZ and MIL -- yet still, 2 of those teams have dumped him. Lopez has his warts.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Lopez is a couple of years younger than Orlando Hudson, and just as good. The Dodgers signed Hudson last year as a type A FA.

 

But it should be noted that it was a pretty late signing (Feb 20), and only for one year...it was very surprising how little market there was for Hudson. Lopez has been a similar hitter but he has a lot less defensive value. Of course he's also a bit younger...some of the concern with Hudson was that he might be losing a step. I think Lopez has played well enough to secure a multiyear deal, draft picks notwithstanding, but the guy does have some issues, and there's still some uncertainty as to how the economy will affect payrolls.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think Lopez has played well enough to secure a multiyear deal, draft picks notwithstanding, but the guy does have some issues, and there's still some uncertainty as to how the economy will affect payrolls.

 

...and I think he has burned some bridges with former employers -- which could drive up his demand.

[dadofandrew]

As weak as 3B is in the bigs, I can't see Lopez not signing a deal to start at either 2B or 3B.

 

If he would accept arby, he's tradeable on a 1y/$5M deal, if there's no spot for him.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Did Lopez burn bridges in StL? I thought he was never viewed as anything other than a stopgap there, and that he was planning to test free agency no matter what...isn't Boras his agent? Arizona cashed in a vet with an expiring contract in a season going nowhere...I didn't hear any stories suggesting they hated the guy.

[Fatter than Joey]

Arizona cashed in a vet with an expiring contract in a season going nowhere...I didn't hear any stories suggesting they hated the guy.

 

There have been posts in other threads from AZ blogs and messageboards, that indicate that the D-backs couldn't get rid of Lopez fast enough. I don't think AZ will be in line to sign him.

 

Did Lopez burn bridges in StL?

 

I am not sure -- they didn't offer him Arby's

 

I really did not word my other post well at all. I think Lopez's "warts" will reduce his potential suitors.

[trwi7]

New rankings

Lopez is still type A.