Elias Rankings (as of 7-29)

[patrickgpe]

found this very interesting, we could be in line for a few sandwich picks next draft.

from mlbtraderumors.com

Kendall B

Lopez B

Looper B

Hoffman A

At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through July 29th, 2009. The rankings will obviously change over the next few months.

Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league. A few quick hits: Jack Wilson falls short of Type B status in the AL, and Cliff Lee remains a Type A in the NL (though his 2010 option is a lock).

rankings

(offset quoted material --1992)

[sargennm]

It requires the Brewers to offer arby to Kendall and looper to get those picks and I don't see that happening. I also don't see any team parting with their first rounder to sign Hoffman.

[JoeHova]

It requires the Brewers to offer arby to Kendall and looper to get those picks and I don't see that happening. I also don't see any team parting with their first rounder to sign Hoffman.

Agreed. Having Hoffman as an A probably hurts the Brewers, it would be better if he was a B. I think (hope?) that there is no chance that the Brewers offer Looper or Kendall arbitration. (After all, why would they want to offer Kendall arbitration when they apparently plan on giving him a lifetime contract to catch here? Seriously though, Melvin has to have realized by now that Kendall is awful and would jump at a chance to accept arbitration.)

 

I think the team will offer arbitration to Lopez and Cameron, but I could be wrong. I think they could happily live with either of those guys on a 1 year deal.

[jjfanec]

Hoffman being a Type A could be great for us getting him next year. We may be the only team willing to sign him since we would not lose a pick.

 

Lopper is probably worth what he would get in arbitration isn't he? He is only making 4.75 million and would probably get a little less in arbitration if I am not mistaken, but I do not know how the process really works.

 

No way they offer Kendall arbitration. So Kendall nets a pick and Cameron does not. That makes no sense to me.

[patrickgpe]

So Kendall nets a pick and Cameron does not. That makes no sense to me.

 

I left Cam off the list, he is a type B free agent.

[pogokat]

Hoffman works out fine, because if no one wants him, we get him back. I suspect the brewers will offer him arby because he won't get a huge raise and they likely want him back

 

i think felipe will get at least a 2 year offer from someone...last year was weird...and now felipe's sample of good work is over 600 plate appearances...he's a lot better free agent than he was at this time last year...the fact that he's a type ba should make it much more likely that he signs somewhere

 

if the brewers offer kendall arbitration i will vomit blood

 

Cams a tough call because he will easily find a new home (if not here) but he probably won't get the 10 million he'd get if he just accepted arby

[endaround]

Looper likely won't bring a pick because of his option. Its changed but it used to be if you decline an option you forgo being able to offer arby and outright the player. Looper is replacement level and is nowhere near worth what he'd get in arby even if the Brewers could offer it to him.

 

I guess I'm less worried about Kendall coming back than most. The Brewers dumped Damian Miller despite being cheaper when he had his really bad last season.

[jjfanec]

Cams a tough call because he will easily find a new home (if not here) but he probably won't get the 10 million he'd get if he just accepted arby

Who do we have that can replace Cameron next year? Cain getting hurt set him back. Gerut has not really been given a chance and has not shown much in his limited playing time. I am not sure who is a FA this off-season, and I would rather not trade for a CF with Shaefer and Cain down in the minors and hopefully ready in a year. Our trades need to be for pitching. I think we offer Cameron arbitration. He has the 6th best OPS of all CF'ers and plays very good defense. I know it is a lot of money to spend for Cameron but I just do not see what better options are out there.

[Roderick]

So Kendall nets a pick

There is no way the Brewers offer Kendall arbitration.

[brains and braun]

As someone ignorant of how arbitration works, why would offering Kendall arby be so bad? What kind of salary would he be likely to get?

Also, I'd gladly take another year of Cam, Lopez, and Hoffman.

[Roderick]

As someone ignorant of how arbitration works, why would offering Kendall arby be so bad? What kind of salary would he be likely to get?

Also, I'd gladly take another year of Cam, Lopez, and Hoffman.

Why would it be bad to offer arby to Kendall? Because he would accept it and get a lot more money from the arbitrator (assuming Kendall didn't put in some ludicrous amount for himself), using their comparables and rules, then he would get as a free agent.

 

My guess is that if Kendall put down $4M an arbitrator would favor him over any lesser Brewer offer. Whereas if the Brewers let him go, they could resign him for less as a free agent (if they really want him back).

 

Maybe I am wrong on the arbitration history, if that is the case someone should correct me. But after the Brewers lost quite a bit of money on Claudio Vargas (after going to arby and then releasing him after finding no takers), I doubt Melvin goes down that road again.

 

I can't believe there would be any team in baseball that would pursue Kendall too hard and I (and so should Melvin) would be willing to bet on that.

[DHonks]

I'd offer arbitration to all. Cameron will seek a 2 year deal or stay. Lopez will seek a 2 year deal. Hoffman may very well go back to SD or stay in Milwaukee. Looper is having a bit of a down year, but he's usually rock solid. He hasn't been the problem, he just hasn't been a solution

[DougJones43]

Seriously though, Melvin has to have realized by now that Kendall is awful...

I don't know. Kendall still plays almost every single day, so I'm not sure anyone in the organization realizes it. The front office and coaching staff seem convinced that his veteran leadership and game-calling abilities make him valuable, no matter how bad he hits or how few baserunners he throws out -- that mindset being the case, I wouldn't be surprised to see him back again next year.

[nate82]

The Brewers can offer arbitration to Kendall and it can be for whatever amount they want it to be because Kendall will be a free agent. I'm not sure if that is true with Looper if there is a mutual option involved though.

 

The Brewers could offer Kendall $1m in arbitration to Kendall which he would reject and any team that would pick him up would net us a sandwich pick. If no one picks him up it doesn't really matter since Kendall would reject a low ball arbitration figure. I believe the Brewers will offer Cameron arbitration if he doesn't accept a one year contract and if Cameron doesn't accept the one year contract it is more than likely that he will be heading to the Yankees.

 

The Brewers should also take the same route with Hoffman. If he rejects a one year deal then offer arbitration and see if you can get some picks out of Hoffman at least.

[monty57]

I think the only way Looper could be offered arby is if the Brewers execute their option and Looper does not. The only reason he would not execute his option would be if he's looking for a better deal than the $6MM or so his option is worth, which he wouldn't receive in arbitration. It will be interesting to see how they handle the Looper situation. $6MM isn't a terrible price for him, but it is the only opening in the Brewers' staff if they are looking for an upgrade, as Yo, Parra, Bush and Suppan will all be back. If I were a betting man, I'd say they execute their option, and Looper declines his option, looking for a multi-year deal. Then the Brewers offer him arbitration, which he would also decline. I hope Melvin has more knowledge than I, so he won't be betting when he makes his call.

 

I agree with most of you that it would be a big mistake to offer arby to Kendall.

 

I agree with jjfanec regarding Hoffman. Being Type A is perfect for us. If he is able to find a suitor, we get early draft picks. If not, we get Hoffman back at a reasonable price next year.

 

Unless we see Gerut as our starting CF next year (which is a possibility), we will likely offer arby to Cameron. IIRC, we could offer up to 20% off this year's salary, so we could have him for 1 year/$8MM if the arbitor rules in our favor. I'd guess that if he's not a Type A, some other team will offer him a multi-year contract, so he probably wouldn't accept arby, and will play elsewhere next year, netting us a draft pick.

 

When we traded for Lopez, I believe Melvin commented on the draft picks, so I'm pretty sure he'll be offered arby. This has been discussed elsewhere, so I won't go into any greater detail on it here.

[joepepsi]

I'm confident Cameron would get a raise if he accepted arbitration. He's had two solid seasons here, so will probably be looking for a 2 year deal with an option and will probably get it.

 

Looper should be able to get a 2 year deal from someone. I hope it's not Milwaukee, but I wouldn't mind if the mutual option was picked up for another year.

 

I'm pretty scared Kendall will be back simply because Salome failed to assert himself in AAA.

 

Definitely offer Hoffman arbitration!

[Fatter than Joey]

The Brewers could offer Kendall $1m in arbitration to Kendall which he would reject and any team that would pick him up would net us a sandwich pick. If no one picks him up it doesn't really matter since Kendall would reject a low ball arbitration figure.

 

This is NOT how Arby's works...

 

Both Kendall and the Brewers submit a figure -- and the arbitrator picks one side or the other.

 

If the Brewers offered $1M, the arbitrator would almost assuredly award Kendall the salary he submitted -- which could be in the $4-8M range.

 

EDIT: When a player "rejects Arbys" -- they are not rejecting an actual monetary offer, they are rejecting the opportunity for an arbitrator to hear their case.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

The Brewers could offer Kendall $1m in arbitration to Kendall which he would reject and any team that would pick him up would net us a sandwich pick. If no one picks him up it doesn't really matter since Kendall would reject a low ball arbitration figure.

That is a terrible idea. If he goes to arbitration, the arbitrator picks between just two choices -- the salary the team is offering and the salary the player proposes. If the team lowballs an arbitration offer, that's a great way to wind up paying the player whatever he wants to make. If I'm Kendall and they offer me $1 mil, I'm jumping for joy, because that's a guaranteed win for me in my arbitration case even if I ask for something pretty unreasonable like $7 mil (maybe more?). The only question becomes, "just how high can I push this before my request looks even crazier than their offer?"

 

This is going to be a very strange offseason. A number of veteran FAs took pay cuts or crappy one year deals last offseason, and it's not like the economy has turned around in the interim. I think that if teams are as loosy-goosy with arbitration offers as they have been in the past, a huge majority of the marginal veteran FAs are going to accept arbitration, because the free market is no longer likely to produce a better result for them. But I think the teams sorta know this and will probably anticipate it, and they'll get ahead of the game by simply not offering arbitration to anybody unless they're certain he wouldn't come out of his arbitration hearing massively underpaid.

 

I am virtually certain that it will not go down like it has in the past, i.e. everybody is offered arbitration, and only half a dozen or so guys accept because everybody figures they can do at least as well (and probably a lot better) on the open market as they can with the arbitrator.

 

Edit: I owe FTJ a coke. Curse my long-windedness.

[Fatter than Joey]

I am virtually certain that it will not go down like it has in the past, i.e. everybody is offered arbitration, and only half a dozen or so guys accept because everybody figures they can do at least as well (and probably a lot better) on the open market as they can with the arbitrator.

 

Agreed -- I think winter 2009, will be much like winter 2008 for FAs.

 

I owe FTJ a coke

 

Agreed.

[Never Outhustled]

Offering Hoffman is a no brainer. In years past, type A FAs like Linebrink were signed by teams that were picking 1-15 in the draft, so they only had to give up a 2nd round pick. I'll gladly take a sandwich pick and a 2nd round pick, or I'll gladly take Hoffman back at a similar salary.

[endaround]

Looper has stunk this year. He could very well be done as a starter after losing even more velocity on his fastball. He's been replacement level and a big reason why the Brewers have underperformed. His option should not be picked up.

[monkeyman343434]

I believe you cannot submit an arby number that is less than 20% of the player's salary the previous year. So say Kendall is making $5.00 million this year, the Brewers couldn't submit an offer less than $4.00 million in an arbitration case this coming offseason

[nate82]

I believe you cannot submit an arby number that is less than 20% of the player's salary the previous year. So say Kendall is making $5.00 million this year, the Brewers couldn't submit an offer less than $4.00 million in an arbitration case this coming offseason

You can offer whatever you want for a free agent to be in arbitration it is the players who are not free agents you have to offer an arby number like that. With the way Kendall has been hitting and if you look at his peers he is worth no more than $2m. So $1m is in the ballpark because Kendall is performing at a backup catcher type of numbers. No way Kendall gets anywhere near $4m in an arbitration case.

[Fatter than Joey]

No way Kendall gets anywhere near $4m in an arbitration case.

 

Sure there is....

 

If the Brewers offer $1M and Kendall Submits $4M -- Kendall will get $4M.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Offering Hoffman is a no brainer. In years past, type A FAs like Linebrink were signed by teams that were picking 1-15 in the draft, so they only had to give up a 2nd round pick. I'll gladly take a sandwich pick and a 2nd round pick, or I'll gladly take Hoffman back at a similar salary.

Even better, I would think Hoffman is less likely to get a multi-year deal (than Cordero and Linebrink) and will be more appealing to a team in a win now mode (15-30) as well as that team being far more attactive to Hoffman. Unfortunately said team may also be more likely to sign multiple FAs.