Attendance Figures/Impact of Brewer decisions over next 28.75 hours

[molitor fan]

Looking at the most current data http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance the Brewers are 8th in the league overall and 5th when figuring in stadium capacity - just 11 thousand short of 2 million at the moment and looking at 3 million as again a very realistic possibility.

 

With this is mind, I am wondering what, if any, effect there would be for next years numbers if the Brewers were sellers/buyers, or holders. My view is that the fanbase is heavily influenced by the vibe of the team in regard to the perception of its committment to winning. I think that even the slightest inclination that the team is not doing it fullest to win will result in the Brewer fanbase to shrink back in its ticket buying levels.

 

For this reason, I could see the Brewers being buyers in the next 48 hours, even if this does not seem to be a sound move based upon talent levels - us vs. Cards and Cubs, and the cost of the pitching and other elements it so sorely needs. My view is that the Brewers ownership does not want to steer the attendance momentum away, even for a moment, and could make a push that would cost prospects to this end.

 

I am interested in other viewpoints as it related to the short and long term moves the club is making.

[owbc]

I don't see them doing anything and it shouldn't change attendance numbers much. They already sold 2.7-2.8 million tickets this year so the only way they miss 3 million will be if they completely fall out of the race.

 

I don't see why we would rush a deal now when there will be free agents available to sign in the off-season and several months of trade possibilities. The offense should be fine for next year, so the average fan will probably make their decision based on the pitching staff that we acquire. There will automatically be a drop-off since we will probably miss the playoffs, but I think most fans are smart enough to realize that you can't make the postseason every year and trading prospects now does not make any sense.

[patrickgpe]

i think being a "buyer" is OK, depending on what we give up. Giving up on the future to add a pitcher like Washburn makes no sense unless we get an additional prospect back too. Adding an average starter at a price of someone like Iribarren, Heether, or Katin, i'd be fine with it. NO matter who they add, unless players like Hart and Hardy start contributing, and the rest of the rotation starts giving 6 or 7 inning starts, its not going to matter if they add Halladay even.

[naivin]

I believe this is the reason they won't sell, and will make every effort to make a deal that at least has the appearance of buying (even if in reality they won't really be buying anything), and I commend them for that. As I have said many times, the Attanasio Brewers are extremely sensitive, appreciative and respectful of their customers and make every effort to do right by them. The realize that the attendance numbers they see are not normal for a market like this and they have the ability to keep them up if they do the right things.

 

Conveniently, the Brewers are in SD tomorrow, so its a safe bet you will see/hear Mark A. in the TV/radio booths explaining what they did or did not do.

 

BTW, its the next 24...well 29 hours.

[fondybrewfan]

No matter what the Crew does this year I won't be changing by ticket plans for next year at all. I would hope that most fans realize we can't win every year and will continue to support the team but I guess you never know.

 

No matter what the Brewers do the rest of the year I can't really see attendace falling below 2,500,000 next year. Maybe after a couple years of mediocrity it will start to fall substantially but not just one. The Brewers are too much of a hot item right now to completely fall off of the map in a years time.

[Thurston Fluff]

Normal circumstances I would think it would make a difference. The Brewers bucked the norm last year in the sense they saw a huge gain in attendance the year they went to the playoff vs the usual year after effect. That indicates to me the fans follow the team as it is vs what it was the year before. I think the team needs to address it's pitching going into next year more than it needs to make a nominal move now to prevent a backslide next year.

Even if the team totally collapses this season if the Brewers find a couple legitimate pitchers for the rotation in the winter the fans will be back.

[hawing]

I think the economy might make more of a difference than the Brewers' decisions this week. When season ticket holders were being asked to make 2008 postseason ticket commitments last August, the recession wasn't yet news. If you've already made a 50-75% deposit on next year's tickets, it's that much easier to commit for the rest in November or December or whenever.

 

There have to be plenty of fans who could make the 2009 commitment in fall 2008, but may not be financially able to commit to 2010 (or may have to reduce their purchases). That plus the Brewers' recent on-field woes could shape up to be a double whammy for 2010 ticket sales. I'll hope for better, but if I were the Brewers I'd want to keep that in mind.

 

I don't know how late the Brewers have to be "in the race" to trigger 2009 postseason preparations, requests for deposits, etc. The postseason mailings went out in mid-August each of the last two years.

 

To steer this back more toward the original topic, I think molitorfan has a point. The Brewers have finally cultivated a level of "fan goodwill" (for lack of a better phrase) that they haven't had for a while, and I doubt they want to lose it. One question it raises for me is how do you make a move that the whole fanbase can get behind? The Brewerfan part of the fan base thinks ahead and realizes the potential long-term value of (for example) trading J.J. for pitching that might stay more than two months. The more casual part of the fan base might say, "but we love J.J.! How can you trade such an integral part of the team? Hmph!" and turn to the Packers.

 

The future is important, no doubt; but putting a presentable product on the field now through September (even if it's not in a postseason berth winning effort) also matters to many fans. It is a difficult balance to strike. I'd hope (as fondybrewfan states) that the Brewers shouldn't completely fall off the map in a year's time, but given the attention spans of Americans nowadays - and the economy - I'm only hopeful, not confident.

[ClubLevel]

The Brewers have enough "fan friendly" guys coming back next year - Braun, Fielder (most likely), Gallardo, etc... that I don't think not making a deal will hurt ticket sales for next year at all. Most fans, even the ones who only started coming to games last year, know that the team should contend for a playoff spot next year as well.

 

There will be some who were spoiled by last year and thought that it was going to be like that every year - trade for a superstar, make the playoffs, etc... but hopefully those are few enough that they won't make a dent in the overall attendance numbers if they stop coming as often.

 

Like hawing said, the economic situation will play a bigger role than what the team does, either on or off the field this season.

[naivin]

Great points hawing...I was just about to mention the economy as well. The Brewers have to feel extremely fortunate for the year they are having, but at the same time have to be somewhat apprehensive about next year. They find themselves in a difficult balancing act (again, caused by the inability to assemble proper pitching talent and depth this past off season). I do think they need to find a way to hang around for the better part of the rest of the season, or it becomes very easy for folks to say CC and the Miracles were a one hit wonder, and the hit didn't even reach the top of the charts.

[pitchleague]

I think Macha and the Brewers need to do this to get this club going.

 

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/9111554098d9a9c1ef488a2cd53f4553e50f91f.jpg

 

Then, put one up in the concourses, too, for the fans to marvel at. It's a win-win situation.

 

 

Seriously, I can't get to any more games so my ticket buying is a non-issue. However, I would think that a lot more of the casual fan might get turned off to going to games once school starts up again (assuming things have not improved, that is.) Regardless of how many fans are actually in the ballpark, though, the Brewers will still end up with around 3 million fans in attendance, which is great.

 

The Brewers will likely be standing-pat on the trade front and I don't think that will make much of a difference. It's the play of the team for the next 4 weeks or so that will.

[Tbadder]

If they buy it will be a serious crimp in their future. Even if they got Halladay and Washburn it wouldn't be enough. Sit tight Crew or sell, sell, sell. Start gearing up for a two or three year run. (hopefully)

[AJAY]

I don't think attendance should influence whether we become buyers or sellers. I can understand the pressure the front office feels, but they ultimately need to do what is best for the franchise based on an honest assessment of the situation on the field. Most fans are smart and understanding. If the front office makes correct decisions and shows they are committed to improving the team, they will continue to draw good attendance for years to come.

[naivin]

I don't think attendance should influence whether we become buyers or sellers...If the front office makes correct decisions and shows they are committed to improving the team, they will continue to draw good attendance for years to come.

Attendance is the only thing that should influence what they do. Not just for this season, but as you state for years to come.

[Invader3K]

I think they will sit tight not because of attendance or fan opinion, but simply due to the fact that there aren't any real moves to make, or ones Melvin is willing to take the risk to make.

[bani1717]

I think the economy has less to do with things than the fact that the team performed well last year. Even for the season ticket holders who put their money down for '08 postseason tickets, I believe you could have gotten that money refunded if you wanted (though I don't know for sure since my tickets are actually in my buddy's name....). Plus, factor in the fact that we have had something like 24 sellouts or so this year so far. Season ticket-holders alone won't sell out a game, except for maybe Opening Day. Even then, tickets weren't sold out until season ticket holders bought extras, etc. So, attendance is up more due to more smaller purchases (single games, 9-packs, etc.) than because enough people put money down last year. (not saying that isn't a factor, just saying that on-field performance has prompted people to buy tickets in spite of the economy)

 

If you want to talk about the resale market, then yes, ticket sales are way down (they are probably up in number of sales but down in amount sold). There were TONS of Cubs tickets available on stubhub this year, many even below marquee prices at the ticket windows - buyers were willing to spend less for tickets (decreased demand) and more people were putting tickets for sale to make some of their money back (increased supply). That's the area of ticket sales that's been hurt. But even there, I think enough tickets have been sold on the secondary market that even if some people stop buying from the Brewers, the people who used to buy on stubhub or ebay may turn to buying from the Brewers.

 

If the Brewers continue putting a winning or at least competitive product on the field, I think people will still come to see them play. Just my two cents.