Where will pitching come from? Latest -- Journal-Sentinel

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Very nice read, Mass. I got a chance to talk to Mike Jones at spring training and he was in good spirits and looked very focused. Boy would it be nice to see him in Milwaukee next year. Although the dream rotation of Jeffress, Gallardo, Parra, Jones, and Rogers didn't turn out, I believe another dream rotation is coming towards 2012.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that Brevard tends to suppress hitters numbers a bit, which means they artificially help pitchers numbers a bit, thus the other reason why I need to see success at AA or above.

 

I agree with this, but I am confident that most of the pitchers will succeed next year in AA. I can understand your skepticism because some people want to see the proof of success at a higher level. Next year will be and exciting and very critical year for the Brewers farm system and we will all have a close eye on the Hunstville Stars if the Brewers do indeed remain there.

 

 

EDIT: Not sure why the font is so goofy, but that will be the last time I use Google Chrome to post on bf.net.

[Never Outhustled]

However, as Rogers used his first option this season, I still believe that they have to push him out 100 IP this season... then he can go 130 next season, 160 the following year and be ready to fill in for injury. If we don't get him to 160 by 2011 he's either going to have to pitch out of the pen or we've spent all this time developing him for a different organization as he'll be out of options.

I think your way to committed to this idea that a pitcher can only increase his workload by 30 innings a season. A you really suggesting that, even if Rogers pitchers well enough to be in the big league rotation, you wouldn't let him pitch in the bigs if hasn't had a 160 inning minor league season? So much to the point you'd expose him to waivers knowing he'd be claimed? Why wouldn't you just let him pitch and take the chance he won't get injured like tons of others haven't? Gil Meche went from pitching 50 minor league innings to making 32 MLB starts the very next season. Sure, some pitchers have been injured when they've increased their innings, but some pitchers have had injuries without any high risk use.

 

 

I've decided that Braddock is a non prospect until he proves he can stay healthy

He's still a prospect, he's just not a starting prospect, and that limits his value

[Godspeed]

If we can only increase innings by 30 or so, the Brewers are in a heck of a lot of trouble with Rogers this year seeing that he's near 50 now and headed to AFL after 2 years of inactivity. Obviously it's not set in stone.

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure you fully understand what I was getting at. I was under the impression that regardless of what happens we only had control of a drafted player for 6 years in the minors.

 

Actually TheCrew07, your comments weren't the ones I was referring to.

 

However, given your comments about that and about future innings pitched, I'm not a big fan of that approach. It's really hard to mold someone to do something in the future, as you really have to take their development one step at a time. If the team deems that Rogers can only pitch 60-70 innings per appearance (or whatever the number is), and that means he only pitches 60-65 innings this year (which he is projected to do, minus any other duty after the season), then so be it. I'm with you that I prefer to see him only increase his innings total by 25-35 per year, but as others have already pointed out, that would have capped him at 25-35 innings this year since he didn't pitch at all last year, much less the year before.

 

You just don't know what is going to happen in between that projected time to try and control the overall outcome that much.

 

I had this conversation offline with someone else earlier today, and one point we agreed upon was that if this next pitching wave doesn't pan out, and we're going to have to wait quite a few years to find that out since there's really nothing above Brevard County right now, the organization really is going to have to take a good look at themselves because clearly there would be something wrong that they are or aren't doing. Unfortunately I already feel that is the case.

 

One point I didn't like in the story above was the point about the team drafting bigger pitchers because they supposedly hold up better. Pitchers comes in all shapes and sizes, and some just happen to be more brittle than others, regardless if they're 6'6" or 6'0".

[Never Outhustled]

One point I didn't like in the story above was the point about the team drafting bigger pitchers because they supposedly hold up better. Pitchers comes in all shapes and sizes, and some just happen to be more brittle than others, regardless if they're 6'6" or 6'0".

Yeah, I thought that was odd too. Have they not noticed the size of the pitchers who have been injured? Neugebauer, Gold, Jones, Rogers all are big dudes.

 

My main concern isn't that they can't draft and develop pitchers from rounds 1-2, they just haven't drafted many. My concern is the teams inability to find pitching in rounds 3-10. It seems Melvins mantra of finding groundball guys has really left the team with a bunch of soft tossers who can niether miss bats nor throw strikes.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Unfortunately I already feel that is the case

 

If you want to take the pessimistic approach, feel free, but I think the next wave is going to salvage the reputation of the Brewer Scouting department on pitching and bring on big things to our Big League pitching staff in 2011 and 2012. There's too much potential/velocity/stuff from these pitchers that at least some of them will pan out. Even if 50% of our top 10 prospects end up in our rotation at some point, that would be a major success. Can you not see that in this group?

 

Peralta

Rogers

Arnett

Frederickson

Scarpetta

Jeffress

Braddock

Butler

Jones

Periard

 

 

I might have even forgotten some because I came up with that list off the top of my head, but I'd say it's a safe bet that 5+ of these pitchers end up in our rotation and at least 1 or 2 of them turn into an ace.

[Postseason2006]

The biggest problem that Melvin has is evaluating talent within. Since the Brewers are lacking in arms and have a top SS, you trade your starting All Star SS before a season starts for pitching.

 

When you have an Allstar LF and he is not going to sign, you trade him for pitching not underperforming players and junk (See Carlos Lee Trade.)

 

The same could've been said for Sexson at the time. Sure we got Capuano and De La Rosa but Chris already had one TJ surgery and De La Rosa was all over the chart.

 

Getting junk in deals for All Stars is something Melvin has a hard time laying off.

[tratfan]

you can add bucci to the list. Nice job

[LouisEly]

One point I didn't like in the story above was the point about the team drafting bigger pitchers because they supposedly hold up better. Pitchers comes in all shapes and sizes, and some just happen to be more brittle than others, regardless if they're 6'6" or 6'0".

 

Just taking a look at ERA leaders (for simplicity sake) and what they are listed at:

1) Tim Lincecum (5'11", 170)

2) Chris Carpenter (6'6", 230)

3) Zach Grienke (6'2", 190)

4) Matt Cain (6'3", 245)

5) Wandy Rodriguez (5'11", 160)

6) Dan Haren (6'5", 215)

7) Felix Hernandez (6'3", 225)

8) Roy Halladay (6'6", 230)

9) Adam Wainwright (6'7", 230)

10) Clayton Kershaw (6'3", 225)

11) J. A. Happ (6'6", 200)

12) Edwin Jackson (6'3", 210)

13) Cliff Lee (6'3", 190)

14) Javier Vasquez (6'2", 210)

15) Josh Johnson (6'7", 250)

16) Johann Santana (6'0", 210)

17) Jair Jurrjens (6'1", 200)

18) Josh Beckett (6'5", 220)

19) Jarrod Washburn (6'1", 195)

20) Joel Piniero (6'1", 200)

21) Justin Verlander (6'5", 225)

22) Carlos Zambrano (6'5", 255)

 

Noticeably absent from the list is CC Sabathia; others in the top 50 6'4" or taller include Millwood, Jimenez, Lannan, Doug Davis, Burnett, and Weaver. Lincecum and Rodriguez appear to be the exception much more than the rule, and most of the smaller guys (Rodriguez, Lee, Santana, Washburn) are lefties.

[colbyjack]

If you want to take the pessimistic approach, feel free, but I think the next wave is going to salvage the reputation of the Brewer Scouting department on pitching and bring on big things to our Big League pitching staff in 2011 and 2012. There's too much potential/velocity/stuff from these pitchers that at least some of them will pan out. Even if 50% of our top 10 prospects end up in our rotation at some point, that would be a major success. Can you not see that in this group?

 

I'm not so sure it's a pessimistic approach, and I never said I'm counting on the individual pitching prospects to fail. I did point out much earlier in this thread that being hopeful about the arms in the lower levels is nothing new. I've already dreamed about the likes of Jon Seitz & Ryan Poe, among other more notable prospects that have come and gone. Look no further than the P50 archives to get a reminder of these names.

 

I hope you're right, but even if I am being pessimistic, it's unrealistic to expect half of the guys you listed to contribute at the MLB level, much less two or more becoming legit aces.

 

Noticeably absent from the list is CC Sabathia; others in the top 50 6'4" or taller include Millwood, Jimenez, Lannan, Doug Davis, Burnett, and Weaver. Lincecum and Rodriguez appear to be the exception much more than the rule, and most of the smaller guys (Rodriguez, Lee, Santana, Washburn) are lefties.

 

Missing are also guys like Roy Oswalt, Chad Billingsley & Jake Peavy, not to mention Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson. But I'm not trying to make an argument for or against any "type" of pitcher, as you can find enough exceptions for any generalization. As I believe X already pointed out, Melvin for a while was on a groundball kick. I once sat in a room where Jack Zduriencik praised Mike Jones for his smooth delivery (implying that he was more likely to avoid arm troubles). Remember when we were told that Mark Rogers was so appealing because he pitched in a colder climate & that his arm was relatively fresh (as compared to Homer Bailey)?

 

Instead of falling prey to new generalizations, I would rather just hear that the team is focused on drafting & developing the best pitchers (& players overall) that they can get their hands on.

[LouisEly]

Missing are also guys like Roy Oswalt, Chad Billingsley & Jake Peavy, not to mention Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson.

 

While Billingsley doesn't have the height, he goes 240. Nolan Ryan is 6'2". Tom Seaver goes 6'1", 210, and is a lefty; as mentioned, lefties seem to make up a bulk of the exceptions. Also missing from the list is Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, John Lackey, Roger Clemens, and had Dusty Baker not blown out their arms you might have been able to throw Kerry Wood and Mark Prior into the mix.

 

Arguments can be made both ways. But the majority are 6'3" or taller.

[Mass Haas]

Tom Seaver goes 6'1", 210, and is a lefty

As an "oldster" here, I'll have to disagree...

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure if you're not getting or simply ignoring my point, but making a separate set of exceptions for lefties (incliding those that are not left-handed) is exactly what I hope the Brewers scouting deparent doesn't do. I agree that more pitchers are taller, but again, if you choose to ignore a certain amount of the population due to a pre-determined generalization/preference, you're going to miss out on some pretty talented players. Since the Brewers haven't been good at developing arms, you would think they would stop trying to be cute trying to figure out what type of player physically is the answer to their problems.

[markedman5]

Tom Seaver did a pretty good impression of a hard throwing right hander for a lefty.........................

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

it's unrealistic to expect half of the guys you listed to contribute at the MLB level, much less two or more becoming legit aces.

When it becomes real in 3 years can I bring back this thread? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

Just thought I'd put it here for anyone who missed it, Melvin told Bill and Brian during the game thursday that he was in attendance for Arnett's last game. he said Arnett was consistently 93-95 with his fastball, but threw very few breaking balls. I'm guessing thats at the direction, to protect his arm after a heavey workload this year.

Also, the Brewers have signed just 4 players from the draft so far that are 6"4" or taller, so it doesn't look like they're being overly rigid with scouting pitchers. Top 10 picks Hiram Borgos and Jon Pokorney are just 6' and 6'2", respectively. We drafted pitchers of most shapes, sizes, and experience levels.

[TheCrew07]

I was just thinking about '10, and I'm going to make this short because I have to get up north for football practice, but the pitching is going to get pretty fun to follow.

 

AA - Huntsville

Rogers

Anundsen

Rivas

Bowman

Merk

 

A+ - Brevard County

Scarpetta

Peralta

Frederickson

Seidel

Periard?

 

A - Wisconsin

Arnett

Heckathorn

Odorizzi

Howell

Bucci

Krestalude

Burgos

Rosario

 

Wisconsin will have enough pitchers to piggy back 4 spots in the rotation if they wanted, I'm not sure that makes given the college arms but they did do it with Frederickson this year. Does Meadows go back to relieving? Where does Periard slot, AA or A+ to start? If AA which pitcher returns to A+? What about Jeffress when he comes back? It seems that Butler will be in AAA just based on a pure numbers game, along with Cody, Hand, and Jones.

 

Obviously I was only looking at pitchers whom I expect to remain in the rotations.

[Never Outhustled]

2 pitchers returned from TJ surgery, Brae Wright and Josh Romanski, could factor in too.

 

I'm guessing Hand stays in AA as a 6th starter for depth, and to make more room for minor FA reclamation projects in AAA.

 

What TheCrew is showing us is an organization improvement in pitching prospects.

 

What about Jeffress when he comes back?

At this point I'd like to see him developed as a reliever, and rushed to the big leagues. The sooner he's on the 40 man roster, the better, but make him earn it.

[TheCrew07]

Wright... no offense intended but I don't see him having a future as a SP. Romanski could start in Appleton, but Helena is probably his likely destination without any game action as a pitcher since he was drafted. Off the top of my head that seems to be what they've done.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think any of Rogers, Anundsen, Rivas or Bowman become legit call up candidates in 2nd half of 2010 if they are successful at Huntsville next year. Big key is if Rogers can get up to 5-6 innings per start. Ideally, none of those guys would see Milwaukee until 2011, but Brewer pitching situation is far from ideal.

[Invader3K]

2011 could be a big year for MLB pitching again if some of these guys can keep making progress.

[paul253]

I didn't want to start another thread on this. Don't look now, but we have some pitching prospects! I was looking at how the rotations are going to line up next season.

 

Nashville will be a little thin. Hopefully Mike Jones returns.

 

Nashville:

Mike Jones

Chris Cody

Josh Butler

 

Huntsville:

Evan Anundsen

Mark Rogers

Amaury Rivas

Zach Braddock (ideally)

Alex Periard

 

Brevard County:

Cody Scarpetta

Wily Peralta

 

Wisconsin:

Eric Arnett

Kyle Heckathorn

Jacob Odorizzi

Niccolas Bucci

 

Invader is right...2011 could be a real good year for pitching with guys like Butler and Jones ready to compete for a starting spot and Anundsen, Rogers Rivas, and Braddock close to being ready to get a look. I never really thought about the pitching depth we had in the minors until i separate the prospects like that.

[brosto1]

Does anyone else like Watten? It may have only been one game, but against Cedar Rapids earlier this year I really liked what I saw that day.

[TheCrew07]

Watten hasn't been able to string together a successful season. He's got a very nice sinker, but it appears if he doesn't have his sinker he's going to be ineffective. I haven't seen him struggle either... I did forget Adams in my list, but I've just about written him off, his velocity is very average and his location stinks. If he could get his FB even into the 92-93 consistently I'd feel better about him. When I saw him pitch he topped out at 92, not the 96 that was reported pre draft.

[LouisEly]

You might be able to add Lasker to the list at Wisconsin, as he has pitched well enough and been going deep enough into games to probably jump Helena. Thielbar and Costello, while not as highly thought of, could/should jump Helena being college guys, and the 'Stosh could factor into the equation also.

 

Hopefully a couple of these guys are flipped and/or packaged with Hardy for someone who is ML ready and can help the next two years until the reinforcements arrive.