Where will pitching come from? Latest -- Journal-Sentinel

[kramnoj]

I thought the deal with Jeffress was that he would be needed to be put on the 40 man next year because then he wouldn't be tested for drugs of abuse. IIRC, that would be one year early, but it would prevent him from getting the death penalty.

 

DeFelice has to be mentioned as a good, cheap bullpen find.

[Bnowell4evr]

I thought Lasker had back trouble last season?

 

I couldnt remember what was wrong with him so you're probably right. I just knew he missed the year with some injury.

[brewpitch]

I thought the deal with Jeffress was that he would be needed to be put on the 40 man next year because then he wouldn't be tested for drugs of abuse.

 

Correct

[logan82]

I thought the deal with Jeffress was that he would be needed to be put on the 40 man next year because then he wouldn't be tested for drugs of abuse.

Honestly, if that is the case forget putting him on the 40-man roster. Get him the proper help for his problem. Don't be an enabler.

[trwi7]

Honestly, if that is the case forget putting him on the 40-man roster. Get him the proper help for his problem. Don't be an enabler.

What makes you think they won't do both? Obviously they're going to help him with rehab and whatever, but they're also going to protect their asset. If that's as simple as putting him on the 40 man roster, they would be pretty stupid not to do it.

[brewpitch]

I thought the deal with Jeffress was that he would be needed to be put on the 40 man next year because then he wouldn't be tested for drugs of abuse.

Honestly, if that is the case forget putting him on the 40-man roster. Get him the proper help for his problem. Don't be an enabler.

 

Do you think the MLB is one big Maybury?

[Roderick]

I love Jack Z, and was sorry to see him go. But, he absolutely left the cupboard bare when it came to pitching.

I haven't read alot of the minor league board, so this has likely been covered. Did Melvin/Jack Z ever say they drafted hitting more than pitching, feeling that hitting had less of a bust %? If that was the case, then it would be on Melvin's shoulders to flip hitting for pitching somewhere in the timeline before the lack of pitching reached crisis levels at the major league level (which was about seven weeks ago)

 

Has anyone done a study on how many positional versus pitching prospects become a starter in the majors from the first few rounds of the draft?

[DHonks]

Roderick, I've never heard that. There's the old Branch Rickey quote about needing a ton of pitching prospects just to produce one big league pitcher. In 2008 the Brewers took a ton of arms (and signed more than in any other recent draft). In 2009 they took quite a few, too. So adding those two together, there are a lot of good arms between R, R+, A, and A+. Hopefully by the end of next year we can get a few to AA so they're a short trip from the big leagues.

[logan82]

trwi7 wrote:

What makes you think they won't do both? Obviously they're going to help him with rehab and whatever, but they're also going to protect their asset. If that's as simple as putting him on the 40 man roster, they would be pretty stupid not to do it.

I am not sure how tight the 40-man roster will be. I know it was pretty full and we even had to leave off a good player or two this year. If it comes down to Jeffress who doesn't have to be put on the 40-man and a player who does, then what?

[trwi7]

I am not sure how tight the 40-man roster will be. I know it was pretty full and we even had to leave off a good player or two this year. If it comes down to Jeffress who doesn't have to be put on the 40-man and a player who does, then what?

It depends on who the player is. If it's a top prospect who's performing well, you obviously put him on, if it's a middling prospect struggling in A+ or AA, then you put Jeffress on.

[Bnowell4evr]

With all the talk about the 2008 Draft I was wondering if anyone heard anything about Josh Romanski?

[trwi7]

With all the talk about the 2008 Draft I was wondering if anyone heard anything about Josh Romanski?

I believe he had Tommy John surgery.

[804Sox]

I never hear much talk about Michael Bowman on these forums. He's had some decent success so far in the minors so I was wondering if he has any MLB potential? I realize he doesnt miss alot of bats but he seems like a decent arm aside from that.

I like Bowman, but he has a lot to prove before he can be talked about as a top prospect. While his results have been good at every stop, he's always been a bit old for his level and, as some have mentioned, isn't the type of "power pitcher" that will generate a lot of swings and misses.

 

Every report I've read regards him as having pretty good control, so I'm quite surprised that he's walked so many batters since his promotion to Brevard county, even if the high total has been heavily influenced by a few bad outings. He got roughed up in a couple starts early on, so my best guess is that he's simply trying to be too fine/is afraid to throw strikes after giving up a couple HRs. If he improves on this and starts trusting his stuff more (he spots his FB pretty well and has some good movement), while continuing to have good results, then next year he definitely enters the discussion of pitchers on the horizon, but if his peripherals remain the same - even if his ERA stays in the neighborhood of 3.50 - I think he remains in the group of fringy prospects.

[TheCrew07]

I'm probably the only poster on this forum who's on the Bowman and Rivas bandwagons... Mike is way too up and down yet for me to start pimping him like I have been Rivas, and like Rivas he gives up too many HRs, at least in my opinion.

[804Sox]

I'm probably the only poster on this forum who's on the Bowman and Rivas bandwagons... Mike is way too up and down yet for me to start pimping him like I have been Rivas, and like Rivas he gives up too many HRs, at least in my opinion.

I'm tentatively on board, I'm just worried about his A+ peripherals considering his age for the level. He is at best age appropriate for A+, even a bit on the old side, and is really going to have to rely on precise command as he works his way up the levels. Keeping the fingers crossed, but we'll see.

[DHonks]

TheCrew, I've been on their bandwagons since...well I didn't know we had a bandwagon. Rivas' velocity and groundball nature was fun to follow starting last year, and Bowman is from that pitching rich '08 draft that has me excited.

[sfl2hnq17]

i think that one of the bigggest problems with the brewers pitching lack of pitching depth at the high levels is the result of 2 things. 1. drafting players with more upside than drafting guys with more polish in the earlier rounds. examples, i didnt follow the draft in 2008 nearly enough as this year to be able to say who was polished and who wasnt; frederickson, lintz just to name 2. im not saying we have to draft 24 year olds in rounds 1-5; however in 2008 when we had 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, i thought we could have drafted one more estabalished college pitcher, junior or senior, who was extremely polished, had the control taken care of, maybe a guy like mike leake this year. 2. i do not think the brewers are doing enough to challenge their pitchers, granted some of the more high end prospects have control issues, such as scarpetta and this will be a little controversial but i still have high hopes for frederickson. but guys like bucci, peralta, anundsen, rivas, odorizzi and even krestalude. i have been following helena a lot lately, so so i am high on all three guys i listed from helena, the only with a high walk rate is krestalude (but he pitched well in a few appearances in brevard county).

[TheCrew07]

Those pitchers you talk of with polish... they don't have upside... so you think we would have solve our pitching problems by drafting more low ceiling players? More 4/5 types? The problem in my opinion was an issue of quantity of high ceiling pitchers. We only had a couple, and when they got hurt we were left with nothing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't think a change of philosophy is needed in drafting or player development for the Brewers. I think they've just had some bad luck with injuries and that will turn around once the 2011 season comes around because we have too many good arms to not at least have a couple of them be ready to perform every 5 days in Milwaukee in 2 years. We could have a sick rotation come 2012.

 

2010 candidates in the minor league system:

 

Opening Day:

 

Josh Butler - if he has a strong spring.

Mike Jones - ditto, but probably a long shot

Chris Cody - only has #4-5 type upside but could eat innings

Dillard - Probably a reliever though.

 

Midseason:

 

Periard - If he stays healthy and dominates AAA

Donovan Hand - If the Brewers get killed by injuries and AAA performance is strong.

 

We could see something like this although trades might change the picture:

 

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

Suppan

Butler/Jones/Cody

 

2011 candidates:

 

Opening Day

 

Periard - Should arrive by then.

Rogers - If he pitches 100 innings plus in 2010.

Anundsen - If he keeps doing what he's doing

Rivas - If he keeps getting minor league hitters out

Braddock - long shot. he'll probably be a reliever.

Jeffress - If he can stay off the riefer.

Frederickson - Probably won't pass up the top 5.

 

Midseason

 

Scarpetta - If he learns some control

Peralta - If he keeps lighting it up

 

2011 could look something like this:

 

Gallardo

Parra

Butler

Jones

Jeffress/Anundsen/Periard

 

 

I could go on to 2012, but I think you guys are seeing what is going on here. We have a finite amount of spots in the rotation opening up and a surplus of pitchers that are probably going to be ready. All we need is to hit it big on a few of these guys and then we can start complaining about how thin we are with our hitting prospects in 2 years. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[LouisEly]

Sure there are lots of arms in A & rookie ball, however I don't get excited about anyone until they have some success at AA or above. Right now that includes only four starters on the Power 50 (Butler, Cody, Dillard, Hand), and of those Dillard projects as a reliever, and Hand and Cody project as #4/5 starters at best with Cody starting to get figured out in AAA which does not bode well for future success. Maybe Braddock can be stretched back out to a starter, maybe he can't.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that Brevard tends to suppress hitters numbers a bit, which means they artificially help pitchers numbers a bit, thus the other reason why I need to see success at AA or above. We'll see how well Anundsen/Rogers/Periard/Rivas fare in Huntsville next year. Hopefully they will have the success Butler has had, but I have questions about all four (Rogers - health; others - lack of impressive numbers anywhere but Brevard).

 

I think 2011 is a bit optimistic for anyone but Butler, Cody, Hand, and Jones, and I'm not sold on the last three being any better than a #5 (welcome back Braden Looper in 2010). 2012 is a more likely timeline for the mass of pitching to arrive.

[Mass Haas]

Link while active, text follows:

 

Brewers: Minor leagues haven't been pitching in much help

By DENNIS PUNZEL

The Capital Times

 

In the Milwaukee Brewers' master plan, they would be the envy of the baseball world.

 

While other teams engage in the annual scramble for pitching, the Brewers would be sitting pretty with a home-grown starting rotation built around the likes of Nick Neugebauer, Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra. Waiting in the wings would be flame-throwing phenom Jeremy Jeffress.

 

"You take those guys and you have quite a rotation," said a wistful Bruce Seid, the Brewers' first-year director of amateur scouting.

 

Of course, the dream rotation never materialized, derailed by a series of debilitating injuries to one top prospect after another. The most visible casualty was Neugebauer, who suffered a torn rotator cuff while pitching for the Brewers in 2002 at the age of 21, an injury that eventually ended his career.

 

That scourge has left the Brewers with a shortage of pitching not only at the major league level but at the top two levels of their farm system, as well. The shortcomings became painfully obvious when openings occurred in their already-thin starting rotation due to injuries to Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan and the early ineffectiveness of Parra.

 

Rather than fill those spots with rising prospects, they've had to turn to relief pitchers Seth McClung and Carlos Villanueva and journeyman minor leaguer Mike Burns to patch together a rotation. The results have been disastrous and have contributed to the Brewers' downward spiral. Those three have managed just one quality start in 10 opportunities, compiling a 2-6 record with a 7.28 ERA.

 

The Brewers have had similar problems plugging holes in their bullpen, with veteran minor leaguers Chris Smith, R.J. Swindle, Chris Narveson and Tim Dillard providing little help when called upon.

 

The pitching shortage impacted the team in another way, making it more difficult for general manager Doug Melvin to trade for immediate help because other teams were looking for young pitchers in return. He had none to offer.

 

Pitching gap

 

This development didn't catch anyone in the organization by surprise.

 

"We knew we were going to have a gap in the system," said Reid Nichols, director of player development/training. "We have a lot of free agent guys playing at Triple A and Double A. We've had major setbacks from the high school guys we've gotten in the first round.

 

"I don't think we're unique in this problem. The history of high school pitchers taken with first-round picks shows that the success rate isn't very good. It's such a roll of the dice."

 

While former scouting director Jack Zduriencik has been credited for bringing in the nucleus of the lineup that put the Brewers in the playoffs last year, his track record on pitchers has not been as good. In his nine years with the Brewers before leaving to become general manager of the Seattle Mariners, Zduriencik selected three pitchers in the first round - Jones with the 12th overall pick in 2001, Rogers with the fifth pick in '04 and Jeffress with the 16th pick in '06.

 

All three were highly regarded, hard-throwing high school pitchers. But none has yet to pitch a game above Class AA. Jones and Rogers have had their careers sidetracked by shoulder surgeries, while Jeffress is serving a 100-game suspension after testing positive for marijuana.

 

"There's three guys there that we could be talking about at the major league level right now," Nichols said.

 

Instead, all three are battling the odds to make it to the Brewers. At the same time - and this might be the biggest indictment of the team's pitching shortage - they are regarded as the top three prospects to provide help in Milwaukee in the next couple of years.

 

"Jack Z. did a very solid job drafting for them," said J.J. Cooper, managing editor of Baseball America, the sport's bible of player scouting and development. "But when it comes to pitching, they've not had near the success they've had with hitters.''

 

Battling back

 

Entering his senior season at Thunderbird High School in Phoenix, Jones was considered a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2001 draft. But minor arm issues caused him to fall to the Brewers at No. 12.

 

Shortstop J.J. Hardy, the Brewers' second-round pick that year out of Tucson, remembers Jones as an overpowering pitcher and empathizes with his struggles to fulfill his potential.

 

"He was a high school guy who was throwing 98, 99, 100 miles per hour,'' Hardy said. "And he was a very good center fielder, too, just a great all-around athlete.

 

"I think everyone who's been around him is pulling for him and wants him to just stay healthy and be as good as he can be. If he can stay healthy there's no doubt in my mind that he can make it."

 

Jones appeared to be on the fast track to the big leagues when he compiled a 7-2 record with a 2.40 ERA at Class AA Huntsville in 2003 at the age of 20. He returned to Huntsville the following season but was sidelined by shoulder problems that required surgery after the season.

 

His pitching coach back then was Stan Kyles, now the Brewers' bullpen coach. He sees Jones as a cautionary tale of what can happen when a young pitcher is pushed too quickly.

 

"He was a young kid and he had to go out and attempt to get out much more experienced hitters," Kyles said. "It takes a toll when you have to be on top of your game. Hitters at that level weren't helping him a whole lot. He was a mature kid for his age and he wasn't a guy who would overthrow. He had a pretty quiet delivery even though there were some issues then.

 

"We just felt that we'd be able to get him through some things, but it didn't work out and he took a lot of steps back because of it.''

 

Five years later, Jones is back in Huntsville after starting the season at High Class A Brevard County. He has a combined 7-3 record with a 4.23 ERA, and over his last five starts he is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA. But at age 26, the clock is ticking on his career.

 

A tougher path

 

If anything, Rogers has had an even tougher path than Jones. In 2004, the Brewers made Rogers the highest draft choice ever from the state of Maine after watching him light up radar guns, selecting him over a more ballyhooed pitcher from Texas, Homer Bailey.

 

Rogers showed a high-90s fastball but struggled with his control during his first three minor league seasons, posting a 3-14 record with a 4.99 ERA. In 200 innings he struck out 245 batters but walked 139.

 

Then, he missed the 2005 and '06 seasons after undergoing two shoulder surgeries.

 

Gallardo, the Brewers' second-round pick that year, was Rogers' teammate those first three seasons.

 

"He had very good stuff," said Gallardo, the Brewers' ace at age 23, one month younger than Rogers. "He threw very hard and had a good slider and a good curveball. ... I can't imagine what it was like for him to not be able to pitch for two years. But I talked to him at spring training and he seemed pretty confident that he was going to be able to come back."

 

Rogers is displaying his old fastball at Brevard County. Working with a limited pitch count, he has an 0-3 record with a 2.12 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 46 innings.

 

"He's pitching in the mid-90s consistently," Nichols said. "His arm strength is back and we just need to get him some time on the mound.

He's having flashes of brilliance, but he's still lacking experience and needs to get some innings logged. He's going to pitch in the fall league and he could be knocking at the door at the end of next year with a good year in Double-A."

 

Is it just bad luck?

The Brewers' track record with young pitchers raises the obvious question: Is it just the result of bad luck or can the problems be attributed to their scouting and development program?

 

"If you take our team at the big league level, we match up against anybody when it comes to producing players," Nichols said. "Obviously, we've been better with position players than with pitchers.

 

"You always hear that if you have seven prospects who are pitchers, you hope that two of them make it just because of the injuries. I'm not satisfied with that ratio. I don't like having injuries and we can always examine what we do. But the throwing motion is an unnatural act for the human body."

 

A sign that the Brewers have adjusted their approach to developing pitchers was the hiring of Lee Tunnell, a former major league pitcher, to coordinate their minor league pitching program.

 

"Anytime there's a change of people there's a change of philosophy," Nichols said. "I'm very confident and comfortable with Lee. He knows his stuff and has a good relationship with the pitching coaches.

 

"We continually re-evaluate, assess and adjust the program. We had a medical symposium with our surgeons and pitching coaches where we reviewed everything we were doing. We've made some adjustments at lower levels with younger pitchers to lighten the workload. We try to keep everybody under 150 innings, except for some of the older guys who have clean deliveries."

 

Still, the most important element might be patience, something that can be hard to maintain as the demand for pitching grows.

 

As point of reference, the previous Brewers regime took a lot of criticism for its handling of Neugebauer, who was scouted and signed by Seid. Plagued by injuries since being drafted out of high school in 1998, he nevertheless was pitching at the major league level by age 20 in 2001, his third full pro season.

 

Neugebauer raised hopes by striking out nine batters in five innings in his major league debut but then struggled to a 1-7 mark during the team's 106-loss season of 2002 before succumbing to injury. Compounding matters, he was trotted out for five September appearances after taking off three months in an attempt to rest his arm.

 

After surgery in 2003, an attempted comeback fizzled the following year, and he retired soon afterward.

 

"Throughout baseball there's a sense of urgency to develop pitching," said Gord Ash, the Brewers' assistant general manager. "But it's not an avenue you can rush. There are no shortcuts.''

 

Looking ahead

 

Whatever help the Brewers get for their pitching staff in the next year or so will have to come from outside the organization. Beyond that, the front office is cautiously hopeful that some help is on the way internally.

 

"We don't have a lot of guys at the Triple-A and Double-A levels that we can count on next year," Ash said. "But in the next two- to three-year period there seems to be a good number of pitchers who are promising. But you can't count on those guys at this point; you have to see how they develop."

 

One shift in philosophy is the Brewers have come to believe that bigger is better when it comes to pitchers. It's more than coincidental that their top two pitchers in this year's draft, Eric Arnett and Kyle Heckathorn, are both 6-foot-6, as is last year's first-round supplemental pick, Evan Fredrickson.

 

"There's a clear philosophy that bigger, stronger should be healthier,'' Ash said. "There are certainly exceptions, but over the last couple years we've made a distinct effort to get bigger."

 

Of course, it will be several years before that theory will be borne out. But those three have quickly assumed a place among the team's top prospects, even as they get their feet wet in pro baseball.

 

Baseball America's Cooper anticipates that when his publication compiles its annual list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, the Brewers will have two players on it - shortstop Alcides Escobar and second baseman Brett Lawrie.

 

"I don't see any pitchers that are going to make it among the top 100 prospects," he said.

 

ARMS OF THE FUTURE?

 

A quick read on some of the Brewers' long-range pitching prospects:

 

Zach Braddock, 21, 2-1, 0.79 ERA at Brevard County and Huntsville: Braddock is in many ways a typical Brewers prospect, possessing overpowering stuff and a history of arm issues. He has been almost unhittable this year, allowing just 21 hits in 34 innings while striking out 53 and walking seven. But he's also been shut down since early July because of elbow tenderness.

 

Evan Anundsen, 21, 8-7, 2.94 ERA at Brevard County: Anundsen grabbed the spotlight by throwing a no-hitter earlier this season. He also has posted some impressive peripheral numbers, allowing just 83 hits in 107 innings and striking out 102. But the power numbers belie a finesse approach built around a heavy sinker.

 

Evan Fredrickson, 22, 3-7, 4.92 ERA at Wisconsin: Command is the missing element of Fredrickson's game, as evidenced by his 58 walks in 75 innings this season.

 

Wily Peralta, 20, 3-3, 3.54 ERA at Wisconsin: Peralta fits right in with the Brewers, having missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery. But he is back at full strength this year and has been the Timber Rattlers' top pitcher, with 99 strikeouts in 84 innings.

 

Jake Odorizzi, 19, 1-2, 3.71 ERA at Helena: A multi-sport athlete from Highland, Ill., Odorizzi is an example of the newfound emphasis on going slow with pitchers as he has pitched just 26 innings.

 

Nick Bucci, 19, 6-0, 2.94 ERA at Helena: An 18th-round draft pick last year out of Canada, Bucci has quickly become a favorite of Brewers' execs with his aggressive style of pitching. His control has allowed him to pitch deeper into games than most pitchers his age and he's allowed only 36 hits in 52 innings, striking out 47 and walking 14.

[colbyjack]

That's a nice story by Dennis Punzel, and a few times it was emphasized the importance of being patient with young arms, contrary to a few people suggesting the Brewers needed to be more aggressive with the way some of the current prospects were being handled.

 

It's also nice to see Nick Bucci on that final list, as that once again confirms that the organization believe he truly is a legit prospect.

[Godspeed]

Great story. The quotes from Hardy & Gallardo regarding Jones & Rogers were the highlight for me. Just outstanding work.

[hawing]

The Madison newspapers cut back their Brewers coverage after last season, which makes stories like this both all too rare and much appreciated. Thanks, Dennis, if you're looking.

[TheCrew07]

That's a nice story by Dennis Punzel, and a few times it was emphasized the importance of being patient with young arms, contrary to a few people suggesting the Brewers needed to be more aggressive with the way some of the current prospects were being handled

I'm not sure you fully understand what I was getting at. I was under the impression that regardless of what happens we only had control of a drafted player for 6 years in the minors. I have since been corrected and understand that it's 6 full season, plus the 3 option years. I'm all for slowly bringing along pitchers, I've posted as such so many times in different threads on the MLB forum.

 

However, as Rogers used his first option this season, I still believe that they have to push him out 100 IP this season... then he can go 130 next season, 160 the following year and be ready to fill in for injury. If we don't get him to 160 by 2011 he's either going to have to pitch out of the pen or we've spent all this time developing him for a different organization as he'll be out of options. Losing 2 full years of pitching and protecting him from the rule 5 draft has brought us to a point where they are going to have to challenge him a bit to get him ready. I'm not talking anything outrageous, I think 100, 130, 160 is still a pretty conservative plan.

 

As I was driving around for work thinking about the minor league pitching situation the last couple of weeks I've decided that Braddock is a non prospect until he proves he can stay healthy. I'm not saying I've written him off, I'm simply saying he's not an option for the organization if he's unable to stay healthy. Braddock has never reached the 100 IP plateau in his career, I did think he'd be alright this season considering his most recent surgery relatively minor, but he once again has forearm/elbow pain. My worst fears would be that they havevn't correctly diagnosed him yet again or that his body just isn't going to hold up regardless what they do with him. I'll continue to hope for the best, but I don't feel anywhere near as good about him now as I did in June.