Where will pitching come from? Latest -- Journal-Sentinel

[jakesdaddio]

I love Jack Z, and was sorry to see him go. But, he absolutely left the cupboard bare when it came to pitching. There are no good, young pitchers on our horizon, which really worries me. That means to get one, we have to hope this years draft will provide some, or we have to trade some of our offensive studs to get one or two. Fielder, Hart, Hardy, Cameron...all may have to go just because of our inablitily to draft and develop pitchers. I think that will be the singular reason that the Brewers will not make it over the top, and get farther in the playoffs anytime soon. In fact, I wouldn't be suprised if this is it for this current crop of Brewers. What do all of you think? Talk me down. How do we get to the point where we can develop and draft pitching? Is there a chance that the next 2 years will bring the Brewers any closer to some sort of championship??

[bamberger]

Some trades are made or they get a free agent or two.

 

They'd best trade guys they have positional replacements for on the horizon like Hardy, try to get some near-ML-ready pitchers, and wait for the 2011-12 wave that should be coming.

[paul253]

The cupboard may be bare now, especially at the upper levels of the system. But I think there is a good crop of pitchers at the lower levels that have some promise. Arnett, Odorizzi, Anundson, Peralta, Scarpetta as starters, plus Braddock and Wooten in the pen. Throw in wild cards such as Rogers, Jeffress, and Jones. Obviously only time will tell, but I feel better now than I did 2 years ago. Impending trades of Hardy and Fielder and possibly Hart in the next few years, and that should help bring in some upper level prospects. The key to all of this, in my opinion is resigning Gallardo and Parra to long term deals.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Not to mention Frederickson and newly aquired Heckathon. I'm still pretty high on Periard as well. This team could have some nice young pitching come 2011 and 2012.

[colbyjack]

I agree with the original point 100%. People have brought up good points, as there are plenty of good arms to be excited about, but the Brewers don't have the greatest track record procuring pitchers from within, and that for me means that until they do so I will remain skeptical. Plus, this has been a common topic for the past several years, in which we all wonder where the pitching will come from yet are cautiously optimistic about the number of arms in the lower levels.

 

Just take a peak at the top prospect lists the past several years. Using BA's, since it's the most recognizable, they had one pitching prospect in the top 10 this year (Jeffress). Two in 2008 (Parra, Jeffress). Five in 2007 (Gallardo, Inman, Jeffress, Capellan and Hammond). Five in 2006 (Rogers, Gallardo, Eveland, Capellan, Zach Jackson). Three in 2005 (Capellan, Rogers, Hendrickson).

 

Gallardo of course appears to be the real deal, and I know a lot of people have soured on Parra, but he remains a big part of the team's future. While there's nothing to sneeze at two out of five starters being developed within, there isn't much else past that. Tim Dillard hasn't been able to stick in the few opportunities he has had, and Mitch Stetter is the only other pitcher on the team that has been originally procured by the Brewers, and there really haven't been any other candidates that are close to contributing.

 

Another problem with the big-league team this year in relation to recent years is that Melvin hasn't hit on a Capuano, Davis, Bush, Villanueva or even a Rick Hellling or Tomo Ohka type of pitcher in quite some time, and if the team isn't developing pitchers from within, they really need to discover some diamonds in the rough elsewhere.

[pogokat]

todd coffey, while brought in last year, does pretty much fit your billing Colby---

 

watch Jesus Colome closely in AAA as well...

 

I also suspect the team was hoping for more from Nick Green and Chase Wright

[TheCrew07]

I also suspect the team was hoping for more from Nick Green and Chase Wright

I still say Bah and Bah to those 2 moves. Relievers don't really help us solve our main organizational issue, a lack of top of the rotation pitching beyond Gallardo and Parra.

[JohnBriggs12]

The problem is not just in drafting pitchers where they've been abysmal, but in development (Reid Nichols et al). Most teams will have the occasional guy drafted lower than the top 6-8 rounds who develops into a solid major league pitcher. It seems the Brewers always have a bunch of guys in A ball that appear to have potential but top out at AA.

 

Frankly, I think the Brewers are too cautious and they'd be better served by challenging guys more. Rob Wooten was a 4 year college pitcher at the highest level of college baseball who was nearly 23 when he was drafted. Starting him in the Pioneer league where most hitters were 2-3 years younger and 90% of the them were less accomplished that what he saw in college made no sense. I would have started him at Brevard where he would be challenged by hitters his age. Sure he's been able to post dazzling stats, but how does facing inexperienced hitters help him learn to get out major league hitters?

[Never Outhustled]

I also suspect the team was hoping for more from Nick Green and Chase Wright

Imagine that, Melvin has been disappointed in a couple of soft tossers he acquired. Do we see a pattern here?

 

I will him credit for Josh Butler, who was obviously someone Jack Z's department recommended, as they wanted to draft him, and he is no soft tosser. He hasn't been brought up yet, but he is the next pitching prospect who'll start in the majors. It stinks he had that oblique strain, hopefully he's back soon. He might have pitched his way into starting contention this year if not for the injury. Many think he's too old to be considered a serious prospect, but he younger than Clay Buchholz.

[colbyjack]

I agree that Coffey fits the mold of the diamonds in the rough that Melvin has discovered, but like TheCrew07, I was focusing more on the starters.

 

And I can't really get bent too out of shape that they're being too conservative because Rob Wooten should have began his professional career a level or two higher. While I agree with that, two things pop to my mind: While Wooten's success has been great, there's a reason he wasn't a higher draft pick coming out of college after an impressive college career (mediocre at best stuff), and the second being, can you think of another instance in which the Brewers have been conservative? If so, is it a move that has hampered the big-league team?

 

I'm sure development plays some part of this, but it's the acquisition of talent, and finding the right talent that is really lacking IMO. For a while the team was too fascinated in power arms that didn't know how to pitch, spending premium first-round picks on Mike Jones, Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress. Amazingly Jones and Rogers could still pitch there way to the big-leagues while Jeffress of course needs to get his head on straight. However, they need to look at teams that have a strong track record of developing pitchers from within (the Giants maybe?) and see what sets them apart, starting with the initial evaluation of talent through the player development cycle.

 

Imagine that, Melvin has been disappointed in a couple of soft tossers he acquired. Do we see a pattern here?

 

We've also seen that you have to give up a lot more for a power, or at least gifted, arm. That's why he jumped on the chance to acquire Butler, a move everyone blasted Melvin for last season. That's why Jorge de la Rosa was a big part of the Richie Sexson trade and he has been given so many chances before finally succeeding consistently over the past month or two this year (unfortunately with the Royals). Green was let go by the Angels, and the Yankees parted with Wright for Eric Fryer, and from what I can tell, neither one of those guys were counted on anything more than to be emergency depth.

[YoungGeezy]

The problem is not just in drafting pitchers where they've been abysmal, but in development (Reid Nichols et al). Most teams will have the occasional guy drafted lower than the top 6-8 rounds who develops into a solid major league pitcher. It seems the Brewers always have a bunch of guys in A ball that appear to have potential but top out at AA.

 

Frankly, I think the Brewers are too cautious and they'd be better served by challenging guys more. Rob Wooten was a 4 year college pitcher at the highest level of college baseball who was nearly 23 when he was drafted. Starting him in the Pioneer league where most hitters were 2-3 years younger and 90% of the them were less accomplished that what he saw in college made no sense. I would have started him at Brevard where he would be challenged by hitters his age. Sure he's been able to post dazzling stats, but how does facing inexperienced hitters help him learn to get out major league hitters?

Yes, agree totally. That is by far my biggest knock on the Brewers farm system. They take it so slow with almost every except a top flight players like Braun or Gallardo. The one player that has really made me upset that they havent't gave him a chance (absolutely great all year except for his last start)is Anundsen. I fail to see how it has been helpful for him to just dominate opposing hitter all season and the Brewers be not willing to challenge him. It's not like the Huntsville rotation couldn't use him. Then you have a guy like Fiers who is what, 25? Of course he is going to dominate all the 18-19 year olds in rookie ball, move him up. The Brewers have had many bad breaks when it comes to pitchers but do we really need to baby all of them? Our AAA pitching staff is just ugly, and AA isn't that great so why not make some promotions are test your athletes. As a football coach I'm smarter than to put my star defensive lineman up against the most undersized not that good lineman because it doesn't help my star get any better. Instead you have him battling the other better players so he has to push himself. I know baseball is a completely different thing but still if you go out and dominate every game, it isn't challenging you. Athletes need to be challenged and whats the worse that can happen, you get shelled or don't hit and get sent back down.

 

Side note, does anone know why Odorizzi hasn't pitched since July 16th? Or any news on when Butler will be back?

[mls4]

That's why Jorge de la Rosa was a big part of the Richie Sexson trade and he has been given so many chances before finally succeeding consistently over the past month or two this year (unfortunately with the Royals).

I think you already know that De la Rosa is with the Rockies. 6 years later and he finally seems to be figuring it out. Even the Royals gave up on him. Congrats to the Rockies for being so patient.

[twobrewers]

After watching the trade deadline come and go - I realize how valuable #3 or #4 starters in AAA can be.

 

No one trades potential aces, but with everyone looking for starting pitching - a cheap player who can actually post a 4.00 ERA can be flipped for a much better player.

 

I am starting to believe the key to success is to draft high ceiling pitchers (Jeffress) and trade them before they flame out. Imagine the number of deadline deals we could have partaked in if we had parted with Jeffress or Rogers at their peak values.

[Godspeed]

I am starting to believe the key to success is to draft high ceiling pitchers (Jeffress) and trade them before they flame out. Imagine the number of deadline deals we could have partaked in if we had parted with Jeffress or Rogers at their peak values.

 

For me, the deadline this year continues to illustrate the importance of pitching over-all, not just as trade bait. There's a flipside to the peak value theory, too. Imagine where they'd be now had they traded Gallardo+ back in '06 for a free agent to be such as Jason Schmidt. I say keep waiting it out and hope the pitchers' peak values are when they've left the minors for good. Too bad we can't just predict injuries or behavioral recidivism (all accounts had Jeffress moving beyond his problems, and his value was somewhat deflated after the first suspension).

 

Last year the Brewers were able to get Sabathia without giving up a top pitching prospect, and might have been able to do more of the same this year by doing the same. Those trades, like all youth for age trades, are band-aids that typically don't lead to the end goal of sustainable success.

[Diskono]

Green was let go by the Angels, and the Yankees parted with Wright for Eric Fryer, and from what I can tell, neither one of those guys were counted on anything more than to be emergency depth.

I do agree on Wright, but Green is still only 24 and can get a few strikeouts. I still have some hope for him, though he's probably not much more than depth right now.

[logan82]

That's why he jumped on the chance to acquire Butler, a move everyone blasted Melvin for last season.

 

I will be honest. If Butler pans out, the trade will be good long term, but I will never believe it didn't hurt us last year or this year.

[DHonks]

To answer this thread's question, I believe we will get pitching from the 2008 draft. We draft a ton of young pitching that should really start contributing next year with Wooten. Last year's high school arms could really put the system's pitching on the map beginning this offseason.

 

Still, it would be nice to have Rogers, Jones, and Anundsen each at a higher level to test them. We're at the point where--in the past--the Brewers would promote a player to give them a taste of the higher level.

 

I see next year's bullpen possibly having contributions from Axford, Jones, Wooten, and Braddock.

[GoMocs]

I see next year's bullpen possibly having contributions from Axford, Jones, Wooten, and Braddock.

Are you talking about the MAJOR league bullpen next year? Have you seen the guys you mention pitch this season IN PERSON? I have with respect to three of them. Two of them maybe down the road, one of them I just don't see ever making it and the fourth I haven't seen in person.

[brewpitch]

If you can't look at the 2008 draft class and see where the pitching will come from then I don't know what to say. From reading this board, it seems that if a pitcher wasn't drafted in the top three rounds, there is no hope. I don't get it. What if the 20th pick got more than the 4th pick? Does that make the 20th pick the better prospect? Also, everybody that has already marked off Jeffress is crazy.

[logan82]

Also, everybody that has already marked off Jeffress is crazy.

 

Why is that? Even before being caught using a drug of abuse and being suspended for a 2nd time, he still showed a lack of control and was being talked about as more of a reliever than a starter.

[DHonks]

GoMocs, I haven't seen them pitch. I may have seen Jones years ago (like 6 years ago), but I can't remember. I made my statement based on how many organizations view pitchers having success in AA as being close to MLB ready, especially for bullpen guys who only have to come in showing 1 or 2 pitches and are on the attack. So to me, by Braddock and Wooten thriving in AA, Axford thriving in AAA, and Jones holding his own (take out the 2 outings before the stomach issue), I view them as viable relievers. I am no fan of Seth McClung. He had a few good starts last year and one outstanding relief outing, but he's not a good pitcher. Villanueva may be better as a starter because then he can work off his offspeed pitches better. Hoffman may be here one year. Riske is a sunk cost. Smith isn't a great option. I'd rather give these guys a chance than go out and sign more David Riske's. Tayor, Bando, and Melvin were great at assembling cheap pens until recently. Our bullpens haven't been good in a few years. But we used to cheaply acquire guys like Fetters, DeJean, Leskanic, Fox, Jones, Wickman, Lloyd, Shouse, Coffey, etc. As someone said in another thread, we haven't hit on many of those guys lately (just Coffey). I'd rather try to piece together a pen with these AA/AAA pitchers with velocity (or command, with Wooten). They're cheap and replaceable, whereas Riske is only the latter

[brewpitch]

Also, everybody that has already marked off Jeffress is crazy.

 

Why is that? Even before being caught using a drug of abuse and being suspended for a 2nd time, he still showed a lack of control and was being talked about as more of a reliever than a starter.

 

Because he's 21 and he tops out at 98. His control hasn't always been a problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the 40-man next year.

[logan82]

Just my opinion, but a guy walking 5.8 batters per 9 over his career and over 10 per 9 in 2009 shows a lack of control. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the 40-man because I believe they have to put him on or expose him to the rule 5 draft(I think).

[Bnowell4evr]

Im starting to get really excited about some of the lesser touted highschool draft picks in the 2008 draft. Nic Bucci and Damon Krestalude are pitching great in Helena. They've been putting up nice start after nice start it seems like lately with each one of them eating up a huge chunk of innings. I cant wait till next year to go see those two in the same rotation as Arnett, Odorizzi and Heckathorn.

 

I still have alot of hope for Seth Lintz, Maverick Lasker, Stosh Wawrzasek and Blake Billings as well. Laskers command has been outstanding especially after his arm troubles he had a year ago.

 

The college guys need alittle recognition as well even after Frederickson and Adams struggles. Theres still alot to be excited about with Wooten, Michael Bowman and Lucas Luetge. Everyone knows Wooten but Luetges been flying under the radar alittle bit but seems like a potential loogy in the future.

 

I never hear much talk about Michael Bowman on these forums. He's had some decent success so far in the minors so I was wondering if he has any MLB potential? I realize he doesnt miss alot of bats but he seems like a decent arm aside from that.

[TheCrew07]

I thought Lasker had back trouble last season?