Why is Ken Macha getting a free pass?

[CheezWizHed]

Counsell is having a great year. For Counsell. Problem is, he wasn't hitting better than Gamel, when Gamel was sitting. Now, he isn't hitting better than McGehee, but McGehee is sitting. His 10 game hitting streak has caught him up to about where Lopez is on the season:

 

McGehee: .319 .372 .524 .896

Counsell: .296 .363 .426 .789

Lopez: .309 .369 .417 .786

 

Now, if Counsell were starting at SS...

[Invader3K]

I think McGehee's injury issue is what is causing him to sit more often, not a lack of production or the production of anyone else.

[fleehaw]

I agree there was no way you Put soup back in there in the 6th, he has upset me but with almost everyone struggling what is he to do. and look what he has to work with in the Pitching Dept.

I didn't like the move at the time, but I understand his explanation for it. At the start of the game, Ken Macha knows which relievers are available and which ones aren't. If he didn't think he had enough arms to get through 4 innings, fair enough. I probably would have sent out Stetter or DiFelice to try to get out of the 5th, and then hoped that Swindle can give me 2 or more innings later, but I think most managers would see that situation as similar to using your closer to get out of a jam in the 7th inning vs saving him for a hypothetical situation.

And IMO his explanation is a load of bunk. The Brewers could have easily made another move swapping out pitchers from AAA to make sure the bullpen doesn't get too overworked after last nights game. Burns, Dillard, Swindle, Green, and Wright are all on the 40-man, this years option has already been burned with them. While none of them are world beaters, they certainly could've been counted on to give a few innings of relief in the next few days.

 

The Brewers are at that point in the season where you can't let winnable games slip away, especially against bad teams.

[Diskono]

I think McGehee's injury issue is what is causing him to sit more often, not a lack of production or the production of anyone else.

Yep, that and defense (which is at least partially related to the injury, but Counsell is still probably better than a healthy McGehee).

 

And IMO his explanation is a load of bunk. The Brewers could have easily made another move swapping out pitchers from AAA to make sure the bullpen doesn't get too overworked after last nights game. Burns, Dillard, Swindle, Green, and Wright are all on the 40-man, this years option has already been burned with them. While none of them are world beaters, they certainly could've been counted on to give a few innings of relief in the next few days.

Not really. Burns can't be called back up unless there is an injury, Green has been terrible, Swindle just pitched two innings last night, and Wright is only on two days rest.

[brewcrew779]

I don't quite get what you're saying - ERA is very often misleading for relievers, mostly due to the smaller number of innings pitched. His strikeouts are up, walks are about the same as they've always been. He's just giving up a few more hits than normal, and his FIP is actually lower than his career averages.

How can 30 earned runs in 43 innings pitched be misleading? Coffey has allowed 14 runs in 50 innings, is that misleading? 2-7 with a 6.18 ERA is garbage. Villy is not the best option to be starting right now. Like someone else said, Dillard is already stretched out and Villanueva isnt. Why not give Dillard a chance? Can he really do any worse that Suppan last night, 5 1/3 and 10 earned runs?

[Diskono]

Because 43 innings isn't very many innings.

 

And what about the rest of the season? We're not just talking about a one-off spot start here. Villanueva may not be stretched out, but if he's going to go into the rotation permanently, we need to get him there. He has better peripherals in the majors than Dillard has in AAA, so I don't see any reason to believe that Dillard will be better long-term.

[Ennder]

You need at least 400 IP for ERA to really be a meaningful stat and even then it is shaky, probably why people think 43 innings can be misleading.

[bklynbrewcrew]

As far as Im concerned they cant fire this clown soon enough. He has done a terrible job and his aloof personality doesnt help either. Here are my reasons why I cant stand Macha:

1 Kendall still plays too much- when is this organization gonna realize that the guy is flat out terrible. He is arguably the worst everyday offensive player in the game and his defense has been below average as well this year. I dont want to hear anyone about how well Kendall handles a staff; if he is so good why is our pitching so bad. Top flight cathers like Mauer dont even start every game yet Kendall as awful as he is plays practically every game.

2 Macha just doesnt like young players- I dont think this can be disputed at this point; his comments about Melvin putting him in a "zim zam" and being flummoxed about how to handle Gamel tells me he is clueless and just doesnt like young players. He also stated Suppan opening day because he was worried that our ace Gallardo couldnt handle the opening day assignment. This tells me that Macha will choose the veteran over the young guy whenever possible.

3 His handling of Gallardo- Yo pitched 24 innings last year and is so ever important to the future of this franchise yet Macha has abused him; how many times will gallardo be asked to pitch that extra inning when his pitch count is over 100. This shows that Macha has little to no regard for the future of this franchise.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I can't blame him. Doug's given him a crap sundae and Macha's trying to make it look appetizing. The pitching staff stinks for the most part. The hitting is bipolar.

 

Last night was a prime example. He needed 6 innings, they were still in the game. I don't blame him at all for thinking Suppan could get 3 more outs. There are decisions I've disagreed with, just as I did with Nedly. But I've realized now the manager doesn't make a difference when the players aren't very good.

 

The funny thing is, most of this talk would go away if he'd pull a Piniella and blow his top.

[topper09er]

He is getting a pass because our pitching staff is absolutely terrible. We have the 3rd highest ERA in the NL. It is very difficult to contend with terrible pitching, we have 1 good pitcher on our team, I cant blame Macha for that. And yes I agree Suppan was obviously done with nothing left in the tank after the 5th, but what were our options? Some combination of Swindle and Chris Smith. Unlikely the Nats would have been shut out the rest of the game anyways.

 

I can pick on some small things like Kendall leading off, hall facing RHP, Gamel sitting, Hardy playing....but Im not sure these things cost us that much. If we had respectable major league pitching this thread would not exist.

[bjkrautk]

You need at least 400 IP for ERA to really be a meaningful stat and even then it is shaky, probably why people think 43 innings can be misleading.

Statistically significant =/= meaningful.

 

CV's ERA does not hold predictive value, as you wouldn't project his ERA to be over 6 in 2010 based on those 43 innings. That's quite a bit different from saying that they're meaningless. His giving up earned runs in 4 of his last 5 relief appearances (he threw all of 2 pitches in the other appearance) is also not a basis for meaningful prediction, but does allow for the assumption that he is not pitching well right now.

 

If I thought I would be getting the average attempt based on the 320 major league IP that makes up CV's career....I might understand the decision. Expectations adjusted for recent trends, I'd rather see the guy who hasn't been struggling of-late.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

His giving up earned runs in 4 of his last 5 relief appearances (he threw all of 2 pitches in the other appearance) is also not a basis for meaningful prediction, but does allow for the assumption that he is not pitching well right now.

 

If I thought I would be getting the average attempt based on the 320 major league IP that makes up CV's career....I might understand the decision. Expectations adjusted for recent trends, I'd rather see the guy who hasn't been struggling of-late.

Adjusting your expectations for recent trends is attempting to make a meaningful prediction, which in the first paragraph above you assert should not be done. When you say, "he is not pitching well right now," all you really know is "he has not pitched well in the recent past." In shifting this statement into the present tense, what you imply is that "he will continue to not pitch well in the immediate future," which is clearly a prediction.

 

Try as they might, analysts have been unable to demonstrate that you can gain any predictive advantage by chasing hot and cold streaks over the short run. They are easy to identify in hindsight, but that's it.

[Eileen Wright]

6. Macha's choices in coaching staff.

 

This got me extremely angry before the season even started. If the point of Macha was to come in and get our team to the next level, then why did he choose his hitting coach who was last season's interim manager and has been in various coaching roles in our organization at the Major League level for the past three years and his pitching coach to be a person who has been a coach in the organization at the Major League level for the last 17 years?! The first base coach has been in the same position for two years prior and his bullpen coach has been in the organization for the past eight years. Where is the real change here to take our team to the next level? In actuality, these coaches have been promoted from where they were (not counting Svuem's one month as interim manager). At least his bench coach was someone new.

Do others here think that the same old coaching staff plays a decent part in why there has been little to no progression from our team and many of its key players?

[topper09er]

The reason we are worse than last year:

2008: 3.87 ERA, T2nd in NL

2009: 4.69 ERA, 14th in NL

 

Not because of our coaches, it is because our pitchers are horrible and almost none of them have anything close to resembling a major league out pitch they can throw when they are behind in the count.

[logan82]

Do others here think that the same old coaching staff plays a decent part in why there has been little to no progression from our team and many of its key players?

 

None whatsoever. The coaches are fine. The players have played poorly and I don't think that is a reflection of the coaches at all. Time and again we have fired coaches without showing any change in the players. Timely hitting and cutting down on strikeouts has been stressed for several years now. Things may change when players change.

 

Counsell is also benefiting from playing in favorable match ups. Almost any MLB player will perform better with a favorable match up.

[Diskono]

Favorable matchups have helped the bullpen quite a bit too. Hoffman, Stetter, DiFelice, Coffey, and even Chris Smith (to some extent) have all performed above expectations, and I think the manager deserves some credit for using them at the right times. I don't think are too many things that the manager of a team has a ton of control over, but that is definitely one of them.

[bjkrautk]

Adjusting your expectations for recent trends is attempting to make a meaningful prediction, which in the first paragraph above you assert should not be done. When you say, "he is not pitching well right now," all you really know is "he has not pitched well in the recent past." In shifting this statement into the present tense, what you imply is that "he will continue to not pitch well in the immediate future," which is clearly a prediction.

 

Try as they might, analysts have been unable to demonstrate that you can gain any predictive advantage by chasing hot and cold streaks over the short run. They are easy to identify in hindsight, but that's it.

Yet that is exactly what we ask Managers to do on a daily basis, weigh the relative value of small samples (batter v. pitcher matchups, week/month/season-to-date stats v. career numbers, etc.) and make the decision which they feel to be in the best interest of the team.

 

Relative to the CV move, my underlying expectation/assumption is that there is some underlying cause for his downturn (mechanical, lack of confidence, hidden injury, etc.) that would be - at best - a ripple in a statistically significant sample. None of these causes severely affects my long-term expectations or consideration for CV (who I've always felt is better as a reliever than a starter), but does have an effect on his usefulness in the short term. Were I to assume the opposite, that individual innings pitched are independent events, with no carry-over or causal relationships, I would agree with your views on trend analysis.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Relative to the CV move, my underlying expectation/assumption is that there is some underlying cause for his downturn (mechanical, lack of confidence, hidden injury, etc.) that would be - at best - a ripple in a statistically significant sample. None of these causes severely affects my long-term expectations or consideration for CV (who I've always felt is better as a reliever than a starter), but does have an effect on his usefulness in the short term. Were I to assume the opposite, that individual innings pitched are independent events, with no carry-over or causal relationships, I would agree with your views on trend analysis.

And I guess all I'm saying is that while it probably isn't actually true that "individual IP are independent events with no carry-over or causal relationships", there isn't any evidence that we can gain anything by using the kinds of data you're talking about (batter vs. pitcher, recent performance, etc.) to help make decisions about who should play and who should sit.

 

As a consequence, it is my belief that unless a manager is aware of one of those things you mention (mechanical problem, confidence issue, non-hidden injury, etc.), the best thing he can do is completely ignore all the small sample size detritus that most of the other managers are using to justify dumb player usage decisions, and thereby gain a small competetive advantage.

 

As fans, it is highly unlikely any of us would ever be in a better position than the manager to assess whether a short-term performance spike upwards or downwards has a specific identifiable cause, so we are much better off just assuming that such fluctuations are just dumb variance. The majority of the time (perhaps the vast majority of the time), that is all they are.

[JJHardy7]

I wouldn't be surprised if Macha doesn't return for next year. I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets an extension. Changing managers for next year isn't going to make us better, just like it more than likely didn't make us better for this year.

I agree with the fact that it won't make a huge difference. I would though want to see the right manager for this team so that over time it allows players the chance to develop. Macha's quotes are almost Yost like...CV starts because he has starting experience, etc. That type of reasoning just isn't logical. I also worry about a guy like Escobar on the team when Macha said something along the lines that he had a lot to learn or something like that. What is he going to do next year if he's on the team? Not play him?

[bigredrobbo]

As a former so-called "Yost Apologist" take my comments how you will. For me, leaving all the other dubious (and in some cases, ridiculous) Macha decisions aside, one comment stands out. To bring up Dillard, then rip on him (and I'm paraphrasing) for not having enough pitches to get Major League hitters out is outrageous. Hmmm, let's see, the next time Dillard pitches is he thinking "I deserve to be here" or is he thinking "even my manager doesn't think I can do this"?

 

Yost might have been a lightning rod to many, but for the most part, he had his guy's backs. Macha already sounds like a man looking to deflect blame, be it to Melvin for not giving him the bullets, or the players for letting him down.

[bucks2281]

I was pleased with his bullpen management early in the season, but some of his recent decisions have been head-scratchers. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for the mean-time, even though his affinity for veterans over young players has been annoying. I couldn't really care less if Ken returns next year. I think somebody else alluded to this, but as long as our GM continues to hire "baseball men" for the managerial job, not much is going to change. The same archaic philosophies and questionable decision-making continues, no matter who has the job.

 

It's a little too early to compare Macha to Ned, IMO. Ken's been on the job since November. Yost presided over three mega, post-ASB meltdowns. I can cut Macha some slack for now, but color me unimpressed.

[fleehaw]

fleehaw wrote:

---

And IMO his explanation is a load of bunk. The Brewers could have easily made another move swapping out pitchers from AAA to make sure the bullpen doesn't get too overworked after last nights game. Burns, Dillard, Swindle, Green, and Wright are all on the 40-man, this years option has already been burned with them. While none of them are world beaters, they certainly could've been counted on to give a few innings of relief in the next few days.

Not really. Burns can't be called back up unless there is an injury, Green has been terrible, Swindle just pitched two innings last night, and Wright is only on two days rest.

Perhaps I didn't clarify what I truly meant. After 5 innings of yesterday's game, Macha had a plethora of pitcher options. The game was winnable at that point and IMO, the Brewers can't afford to let winnable games slip away, especially against bad teams. There's little sense worrying about tomorrow when you're blowing it today. All of the bullpen pitchers were options at that point. Smith, Burns, and DiFelice pitched on Sunday and Coffey (0.2IP) and Stetter (1IP) pitched Saturday.

 

If Villanueva was the choice to start on Tuesday, a solid option would be to have Dillard piggyback him. That would still leave you at least 3 pitchers that wouldn't have pitched on Monday. On top of that, Dillard or Swindle could be sent back down after Tuesday's game in favor of another pitcher on the 40-man (granted none of them are all that good) and that pitcher could become the garbage guy in the pen for the near future. It's an additional option that the Brewers could use if bullpen usage is really that much of a concern.

 

I just don't buy Macha's explanation of not wanting to overwork the bullpen. Not that I can't see that point of view, I just disagree with it 100% given this set of circumstances.

[Eileen Wright]

Yes, Ken Macha does not hit, pitch, or field the ball, but it is his responsibility to put our ballclub in the best possible position to win every ballgame. He did not do it last night by keeping Suppan in for so long, and he did not do it tonight by starting Villy over Dillard. A good friend also brought up to me that Macha said that Villy was only going to go three innings tonight, so why did he put him in the fourth in the first place?

[Diskono]

he did not do it tonight by starting Villy over Dillard.

Still think this is true? At least Villanueva threw strikes.

[DHonks]

At this point I'm a believer that Macha can't return next year and may not finish August. My beef with him:

 

1) We're 7 games behind last year's pace entering today (56 vs 49 wins). Our team is nearly identical to last year. The personnel are basically the same. Consider the rotation:

-About the equivalence of 10 games ago, we acquired Sabathia.

-Sheets was the All-star starter; this year Yo would have been an allstar if he hadn't started the last game

-Parra was sent to the minors for being awful; last year Bush was sent to the minors for being awful

-Bush was good but got hurt and had a bad fill-in; last year McClung was okay but Villy was awful before him

-Suppan has been the same

 

the offense:

-same lineup, only we're better at 2b and 3b with Lopez/Counsell/McGehee/Weeks than just Weeks and Gamel/McGehee/Counsell than Hall/Counsell (Branyan was brought up around early July last year, I think).

 

2) Macha continues to run the organizations top young arms (Parra and Gallardo) out there for extra innings/batters, running their pitch counts well into the 110's.

 

3) Macha has no emotion, energy, or fire. I have friends that hated Yost that are now calling me saying they miss how Yost would go out to the mound and tongue-lash some of his pitchers.

 

4) he doesn't bunt unless it's a pitcher at the plate; then he always bunts. Macha had at least two games in June when he allowed a groundball hitter to slap into a double play in the 9th inning (and down 1 run or tied) instead of bunting him to scoring position

 

5) he doesn't start runners to avoid double plays

 

6) he likes to push his starters to get extra innings despite bad pitch counts. Yost was ridiculed for pushing starters to get an extra inning and they usually were in great shape, pitch-count wise. Why the double-standard?

 

7) he likes to bring in too many relievers. An instance I'm thinking of is that several times Villanueva was in the game and threw a solid 6th/7th inning in a game that had already been decided. Yost would have left Villanueva in to finish the game, accepting that 1 member of his pen would be unavailable the next day. Macha instead likes to parade relievers into the games when some relievers could easily go an extra inning to save a pen-mate

 

Really, there are two differences with this team over last year. We have a new manager and a new pitching coach. Perhaps we have too many cooks in the kitchen, and we need to can Macha and let either Randolph or Sveum lead this team.