Colome up, Swindle DFA'd/Claimed by Rays -- Latest: Indians Claim Swindle from Tampa

[DHonks]

yogallardo43, there's a difference between Cabrera and Swindle. Cabrera has 2 plus pitches, Swindle none. As I said, Swindle is comparable to a guy like Shane Nance. Good enough for AAA, but no out pitch for the big leagues

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

This was a guy whom some had high hopes on based on stats generated in semi pro Northwoods leagues and a very tiny sample of anything above A ball levels.

Some pitching statistics actually do stabilize over very small samples. Swindle faced enough batters in AA and AAA last year for his strikeout rate (which was well over 10 per 9 IP and translated into an MLE just north of 9 K/9) to be considered reliable. His GB/FB distribution should also have been considered reliable based on last year's numbers, though there isn't anything unusually good or bad about it.

 

Add in this year's Nashville line and you've almost got enough TBF to say his walk rate is reliable. That has also been excellent in the high minors, translating to an MLE of 2.34 BB/9. It's basically impossible to be a below average RP striking out that many and walking that few.

 

Swindle was released because of a .455 BABIP and a 39.1% strand rate in the majors. It is also basically impossible to have worse luck than that in these, the most luck-driven of all pitching statistics. The same thing could have just as easily happened to Stetter or DiFelice (in fact, it almost did happen to DiFelice) in their first few big league IP and we would never have seen those guys again either, unless some other smarter team decided to give them a shot, all because of unquestioning worship at the unholy altar of the radar gun.

 

Tampa is as smart an organization as there is in MLB at the moment, and it's likely that they'll wind up with him in their system as bullpen depth, and off the 40 man and out of the way. Good for them. I really hope he gets another shot to pitch in the big leagues someday.

[mletto157]

Well said Brawndo. Very well said.

 

Plus, who couldn't love watching that 55 MPH curveball! I for one, loved every second of it.

He really shouldn't be allowed to throw more than 15-20% fastballs though.

[MJLiverock]

So it was all just bad luck for Swindle? He had bad luck in the majors with the Phillies, he had bad luck in two stints in the majors with the Brewers. I could buy it if it was once, maybe twice, but all three times he has been called up? Not only just during call ups, but every single game he has appeared in? When do you stop blaming it on luck and start believing in results and talent levels. His BABIP may well have been high because he was grooving meatballs to ML hitters. The guy has gotten 34 outs in the Majors, and given up 21 hits +6 walks to get those 34 outs. I don't see how walking guys is bad luck either. He has yieled 27 baserunner to get 34 guys out. He has given up 5 HR's in that span. That's not luck that's just getting rocked, lefty righty, both have shelled him.

 

This is why linear projections based on minor league numbers don't work that well for everyone. The talent level shifts up in majors to a new plane and Swindle's BP type pitches didn't cut it. His only hope was to catch on as LOOGY and even then I have doubts since he isn't going to sneak that "fastball" past many major league hitters. Now he has been DFA'd for the third time. When does the unquestioning worship of projecting minor league stats fall to actual results and observation of a player's ability? Not every guy picked off the scrap heap is going to go on and become a good or even servicable ML'er, in fact, that is rare and heading back to the scrap heap is the most likely destination for these guys because they were put there for a reason.

[Baldkin]

Over the course of his last 37 outs, Yovani Gallardo has given up 11 ER, 2 HR, 16 hits and 6 BB.

 

The sample size is so small for Swindle, you can't judge very much on his results.

 

He's been bad for 12 innings. I was sad to see him go, I really thought he could be the second lefty in the pen. Plus, watching guys swing and miss at his loopy curve ball was awesome.

[MJLiverock]

Baldkin wrote:Plus, watching guys swing and miss at his loopy curve ball was awesome.

Too bad they didn't miss very often.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[mletto157]

MJ - did you see that interview with him right around the AAA All-Star game? He talked about his time in the big leagues and how most teams only view him as a LOOGY, which really hurts him and his style because he's not a good one-batter pitcher. He said a lot of times he walks the first batter, or something like that, but then easily gets out of it. The problem with this is as a LOOGY he only gets one batter most of the time - so when he comes in and doesn't get that one guy out he looks bad. But he could have predicted that himself. He is not good at coming in for one batter. He likes having at least one whole inning, and probably more.

[MJLiverock]

MJ - did you see that interview with him right around the AAA All-Star game? He talked about his time in the big leagues and how most teams only view him as a LOOGY, which really hurts him and his style because he's not a good one-batter pitcher. He said a lot of times he walks the first batter, or something like that, but then easily gets out of it. The problem with this is as a LOOGY he only gets one batter most of the time - so when he comes in and doesn't get that one guy out he looks bad. But he could have predicted that himself. He is not good at coming in for one batter. He likes having at least one whole inning, and probably more.

He walks the first guy then easily gets out of it? Apparently the major league hitters didn't get that memo from him and his liking a whole inning may be his preference and the hitter's preference too. He gave up runs in every single game he pitched an inning in, it wasn't an isolated bad inning, or bad game, or bad week, or bad luck on a single call up. It was every time he came in a game. I've got nothing against the guy, I just don't see any reason to be surprised he was DFA'd or any reason to be upset about it, he was a fringe major leaguer who was given multiple opporutunities to show he could get major league hitters out and each and every time he failed.

 

The comparison's to Gallardo rough spot were ridiculous at best and more of a straw man than anything. Gallardo has a record of success vs. major league hitters, Swindle has none. It further illustrates the willingness to cling to straightlining minor league numbers without consideration of the jump in talent represented by the major league over minor league, even AAA players. You may not like scouting because it is hard to quanitfy but it has value and the eyes that were skeptical of Swindle's ability to get major leaguers out have been proven correct by his actual results. How long do you distrust scouts and results before letting a guy go? Do you really need or can you afford to give a guy 100 innings of getting shelled before moving on to the next reclamation project?

[Mass Haas]

Swindle claimed by the Indians, optioned to AAA, so he's still on a 40-man roster. Talk about flexibility, only 34 players on Cleveland's 40-man.

 

Interestingly, Cleveland bypassed on Swindle when the Brewers waived him, but not when the Rays did.

[Baldkin]

It was 6 innings with a catcher he'd never really worked with and the guy throws 5 pitches.

I can only imagine there would be issues.

 

Especially when Kendall was calling for way more fastballs than he normally threw.

 

I would've given the guy a shot in the pen the rest of the year to see how he did. I'd imagine that's what Cleveland would do. I trust scouts to some extent, but I've learned that when it comes to pitchers who don't throw 95, they tend to be wrong quite a bit.

 

When his results are that good at AAA, I think he deserves more than a token glance in MLB.