Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

What are the "great FA acquisitions" made by Friedman? Pat Burrell? What are the great trades aside from the fluky Garza-for-Young deal (great move by Freidman & Co., but I don't really give him much credit for Steve Phillips handing him Scott Kazmir either -- not sure if Friedman was GM at the time, either).

Right you are, it was the ignominious Chuck Lamar. Might be the only trade he ever won. In concert with the acquisition of a post-injury Kris Benson at a cost that was, essentially, the entire Mets' farm system, it sparked this thread over at BTF (which might still have been baseballprimer at the time, I can't quite remember when the name changed...).

 

However, somewhat shockingly, the Mets' GM at the time was not Steve Phillips, it was Jim Duquette. Which you need to know to fully appreciate the relevant Transaction Oracle post, which is also quite funny, unless you absolutely cannot laugh at mildly foul language. Still, half a decade later, one out of two ain't bad, TLB.

[Ennder]

Why is no one mentioning the fact that Dougie-boy has built a team that, for the 3rd year in a row, has played terribly come June and July, taking themselves out of contention.

 

Brewers were 32-21 in June/July last year and 20-7 in August.

They were 28-27 in June/July in 2007, hardly terrible.

[shelmark]

Z,

 

While I am not arguing with you on Melvin, I will respectfully disagree once again that Cruz would be our 4th outfielder. I don't look at seasons by months, as you do. The OPS difference is dramatic for the season and over the past year and a half it isn't even close. Just stating that he would be the 4th outfielder doesn't make it fact. While Cruz is improving his numbers Harts are declining.

[JJHardy7]

I didnt not assert 8-9million per year. I only asserted the types of pitchers who are making 8-9 million THIS YEAR, similiar to what Cameron is making THIS YEAR.

 

I'm with TLB. We signed Cameron...that's a big difference. It's not even a comparison to anything really. You can bring up more cases of this, but you either draft these guys or trade for them if you're Milwaukee. You can't just pick guys who have nice contracts and compare them to free agents on the team. Yovani makes a lot less than Cam...what's the point?

[PeaveyFury]

Why is no one mentioning the fact that Dougie-boy has built a team that, for the 3rd year in a row, has played terribly come June and July, taking themselves out of contention.

 

They still made the playoffs last year, so they WERE in contention last year. And it wasn't a terribly June and July that caused them to fade, it was a terrible September. In 2007, it was a brutal July and August that caused them to tailspin.

[brewblue1]

Brewers were 32-21 in June/July last year and 20-7 in August.

They were 28-27 in June/July in 2007, hardly terrible.

 

And 16-27 this year. My point being more to the fact that the Brewers have blown sizeable leads in the division all three years in June/July, leads they never got back and, with one overrated exception, kept them out of the playoffs.

 

I just don't think this team is that good. If the Brewers were in any other division in baseball, aside from the AL Central, they would be between 6 and 11 games out at this point and looking to be out of the playoff race. The NL Central is NOT a strong division, especially with it's best team, the Cubs, playing well below expectations.

 

I also believe that DM's foul up with Suppan is not just some small mistake for the Brewers. His contract has not only hamstrung this team to a point that he HAS to pitch to justify the amount of money he's receiving, but also has severely limited the flexibility with which the team has to make other free agent signings or trades. The Brewers can't just eat a mistake like that the way the Yanks or Sox can. Suppans contract (as well as some other overpaid mediocrity) has really, IMO, hurt this team. Looper was the only pitcher the Brewers could afford this past offseason because of the absurd amount of money going to Suppan, Hall, Cameron and others. Might (yes, only might) have been different if the payroll was more flexible without those contracts.

 

I'm probably not gaining much a fan base here at BF.net with my seemingly anti-Brewer or anti-Doug stance. But other than Yo, Prince and Ryan, I don't see what there is to get excited about on the 2009 Brewers. And I don't see much of a future with DM in charge.

 

I really, really, do hope I'm wrong. Honestly.

[ELCABALLO45]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

Scott Podsednik -- Podsednik was traded a year to late -- Podsednik really is a good example of what irks me. We got a great return, but the instant Pods got 2nd in the ROY we should have flipped him

 

Dan Kolb -- traded a year too late as well

We got a all star LF for Pods. I don't know what more we could of got for him by trading him the year before.

 

We got the Braves number one pitching prospect for Kolb. Yes, the braves number one pitching prospect for Dan freakin Kolb. Not much more you could ask for there.

[Fatter than Joey]

They still made the playoffs last year, so they WERE in contention last year.

 

The Brewers benefited also from back to back historically epic meltdowns by the Mets.

 

There is no doubt that we are some sort of contender though-- I just don't think we are close to the inside pony.

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers benefited also from back to back historically epic meltdowns by the Mets.

 

True, in making the playoffs. But they were certainly in contention after June/July contrary to his claim.

[Fatter than Joey]

But they were certainly in contention after June/July contrary to his claim.

 

Agreed. In both those years, we probably had the inside track before the AS break, and then at some point the trolley went off the track.

 

DM has presided over a couple of big meltdowns though...

[kramnoj]

Melvin looked into trading Cameron for Melky. Reports were that the Yankees wanted the Brewers to pay part of the contract, or possibly take on Igawa's contract, without giving up the extra good pitcher that many here were expecting. Even if the Melvin had made a straight up trade of Cameron for Melky, what would have been gained? The Brewers heading into this season really didn't have glaring holes, other than hitting at C. They had a fair amount of positions that could have been league averagish, but they didn't have any Jeff Francouers. It's much easier to improve a team that has huge holes than averagish players.

 

I thought Melvin did a great job of spending the dollars he had this season. That probably just means that my idea of building a team matches his, but I wouldn't have done anything different than he did this offseason, given what we know.

 

Regarding drafting strategy, did Melvin regularly pass on obvious pitching prospects to draft hitters? I freely admit to not being a draftnik, but if most other teams focus on pitching, it stands to reason that a strategy of BPA will lead to hitters being more available.

 

I used to think Melvin was a top 5 GM. I don't think I could support that, but I think he's at worse average, and I personally believe he's better than average. He has also presided over a remarkable resurgence of strengthening the fanbase of the Brewers. It's easy to look at individual moves and say that he hasn't done well. But overall his tenure has been very good for the Brewers franchise in attendance and in viewership. I believe Melvin's goal has been to continually build a contending team while making moves to go for it when reasonable. I personally think he's done a very good job of that.

[DHonks]

My issue with Macha is a number of things. I feel as though there are always games that a team should win, but loses. And games a team should lose, but wins. Under Yost the last few years we had an uncanny ability to snatch lots of wins from opponents while handing away a few games. This year we've seen several things that Yost wouldn't have done that possibly cost us. Some that come to mind:

 

-The three games in May/June when Macha had a runner on 1st with no outs late in the game. Instead of bunting the runner to scoring position, he allowed hitters to swing away, and each time it seemed the result was a double play.

-Macha's bullpen usage. For instance, before the break he had Villanueva enter the game lacking confidence. He pitched a shutout inning, and the Brewers added to their lead. Instead of letting Villy finish the game for a 3 inning save (something Yost used to love to do to save the bullpen), Macha brought in a series of relievers.

 

I know that's being picky, but I felt that Yost was a better than average manager. I was excited by the Macha hiring, but he's really been unimpressive thus far. I thought he'd stray from Yost's desire to have Kendall catch 140+ games, but the reality is that Macha's doing virtually the same thing. I don't think Rivera is anything more than a backup, but I think Kendall could produce more if given more days of rest.

[giffted1]

And 16-27 this year. My point being more to the fact that the Brewers have blown sizeable leads in the division all three years in June/July, leads they never got back and, with one overrated exception, kept them out of the playoffs.

Not sure what years you're counting. If you're counting 06, they never had a lead to blow and counting this year as a lead they never got back is some extreme pessimism.

I also believe that DM's foul up with Suppan is not just some small mistake for the Brewers.

Attanasio had a big hand in Suppan's contract.

His contract has not only hamstrung this team to a point that he HAS to pitch to justify the amount of money he's receiving, but also has severely limited the flexibility with which the team has to make other free agent signings or trades.

Yes, Suppan is overpaid, but he's certainly been a solid back of the rotation starter. Without him we have another hole to fill. Is that extra 12 million a year gonna adequately fill two holes in the rotation? I doubt it.

The Brewers can't just eat a mistake like that the way the Yanks or Sox can. Suppans contract (as well as some other overpaid mediocrity) has really, IMO, hurt this team. Looper was the only pitcher the Brewers could afford this past offseason because of the absurd amount of money going to Suppan, Hall, Cameron and others. Might (yes, only might) have been different if the payroll was more flexible without those contracts.

Why on earth would you throw Cameron into the mix here? If anything he's been underpaid.

I'm probably not gaining much a fan base here at BF.net with my seemingly anti-Brewer or anti-Doug stance. But other than Yo, Prince and Ryan, I don't see what there is to get excited about on the 2009 Brewers. And I don't see much of a future with DM in charge.

Just take a look at some of the other managers in baseball and the future will look a little brighter with DM.

[PeaveyFury]

DM has presided over a couple of big meltdowns though...

 

Agreed. But in both 07 and 08, he made significant moves in July to try and improve the team.

[Ennder]

And 16-27 this year. My point being more to the fact that the Brewers have blown sizeable leads in the division all three years in June/July, leads they never got back and, with one overrated exception, kept them out of the playoffs.

 

As the numbers I posted suggest your point was completely wrong, the Brewers built their playoff last year in June/July and August, they faded in Sept. I don't like calling people down like this but what you posted is 100% completely wrong.

[brewblue1]

Not sure what years you're counting. If you're counting 06, they never had a lead to blow and counting this year as a lead they never got back is some extreme pessimism.

 

I'm counting 07, 08 and 09. All years in which the Brewers started hot, then had meltdowns that made making the playoffs questionable (despite remaining "in contention"). And yes, I don't see them getting the lead back this year either.

 

Attanasio had a big hand in Suppan's contract.

 

So what. Isn't it Melvin's job to be the knowledgeable baseball guy and maybe explain that that signing was a bad idea. Maybe he did try and MA pulled rank, if so, fine. His recent signings of Gagne, Mota, Kendall, Riske, Looper, Julio and Duffy (among others) have not been all that reassuring. I will say the DM's trade activity has been decent and has not hurt the team the way his FA signings have.

 

Yes, Suppan is overpaid, but he's certainly been a solid back of the rotation starter. Without him we have another hole to fill. Is that extra 12 million a year gonna adequately fill two holes in the rotation? I doubt it

 

Solid is not the word I would used to describe Suppan. He has been a poor starter for the Brewers every year of his contract. ERA's of 4.62, 4.96 and 4.71, WHIP's of 1.5, 1.54 and 1.65, and BAA of .298, .298 and .302 are NOT solid. Bottom line, Suppan has not given the Brewers many chances to win games over the last 2.5 seasons and $42 million is a lot to pay for poor pitching.

 

Why on earth would you throw Cameron into the mix here? If anything he's been underpaid.

 

What has he done to be underpaid? I think $10million is a bit much for a .251/.348/.472/.820(over his season and a half) player. Not bad numbers, but not worthy of that much money. Oh wait, I forgot, he's a great clubhouse guy. Is that what he's being paid for though?

 

Just take a look at some of the other managers in baseball and the future will look a little brighter with DM.

 

Fine. Explain it to me then. Apparently I'm missing something about the past moves and past performance of this team that warrant optimism. Seriously, someone explain to me why I should believe in DM. I'm open minded, I'd love to hear more positive opinions. I would love to see him and the Brewers succeed.

[rousieboy]

3) Dealt Cameron for Melky (saving 8-9 million) if that was needed to get a better/more expensive starter

 

Yes Igawa was coming along in this trade too...

 

Without Cameron do we get Hoffman???? JK talked to him a lot, but I thought Mike's calls were the critical mass in the decision making process...

Something to think about.

[brewblue1]

As the numbers I posted suggest your point was completely wrong, the Brewers built their playoff last year in June/July and August, they faded in Sept. I don't like calling people down like this but what you posted is 100% completely wrong.

 

Sigh. Ok, fine. I didn't take the time to look over the entire schedule to verify when leads were lost and they placed the making the playoffs in jeopardy. But my point is valid. The Crew has had a pattern of melting down, at some point, in the last 3 seasons and that is an indictment of the players and the GM who has collected them.

 

 

But seriously folks, I really do want to hear some positive feedback. Help me change my mind. I don't want to be so skeptical.

[JJHardy7]

Agreed. But in both 07 and 08, he made significant moves in July to try and improve the team.

Linebrink is not and was not a significant trade. The Brewers just gave up significant prospects in the eyes of some (Inman had his own warts). CC obviously was, but I'm not throwing Linebrink in the same category. It's hard to trade for a relief pitcher and be significant IMO unless maybe it's a top closer. Just my opinion though. If you think Linebrink was a significant trade, than we've made one in '09.

[TheCrew07]

As far as the deals Melvin should have made, that's really an impossible question to answer because we don't know what was available. I made my point on that but maybe it got lost. It's very difficult to acquire top of the rotation MLB pitching once they are in MLB, and it's clear that Melvin isn't into trading for prospects when he makes deals, he want's MLB players back. Making those trades he's only got to get serviceable starters, not top of the rotation talent. I have no issues with Bush, Cappy, Vargas, Ohka, and not really even Suppan, we went from an atrocious rotation to a respectable rotation.

 

The problem is getting to the next level...We didn't have much pitching top of the rotation pitching depth in the entire organization, and then 2 of our 1st round pitchers get hurt, it would stand to reason that maybe he should have been looking to acquire pitchers to replace that talent. The problem is, he doesn't deal for prospects, he deals for MLB players... Is there always going to be a deal available? No way... which is why I said he needs to opportunistic and jump at the opportunities when they present themselves. What if people are right about Braddock and Peralta being relievers? Where are we then? It chaps my rear when DM brings up Jones and Rogers when talking about the pitching depth, because he must have known who was available and had opportunities to address the issue but didn't. Z clearly didn't get enough high ceiling talent into the organization till the end of his stay, but DM certain had his chances to address the situation and no moves were made.

 

As a site we tend to lean towards the hitters, and most people prefer to fills holes 1 at a time and through FA the way the more publicized teams do. I know I'm going against the flow here, but I think that's that the worst possible way to build a team. The way I see it, every move DM has made has shortened the window with the first wave, and the moves many posters want to make will shorten the window even further. I've probably heavily influenced by my father who always believed that good pitching beats good hitting, but that's what I see when I watch games, the pitcher always has the initiative if he'll take it. My primary concern is figuring out a way to build the best rotation in the division, we still have plenty of hitters on the way... with Adams and Jeffress suspended, Braddock back on the DL, and people who's opinion's I really respect suggesting Peralta is a reliever, I don't feel anywhere near as good about the young pitching as I did 2 weeks ago.

 

My posts get long enough so I tend to skip past some ideas that I think are pretty obvious, but the reason extending players early creates flexibility is because it increases their trade value if they are moved mid contract, provides cost certainty, and extends their service time in Milwaukee out as far as the player is willing to go. On that type of deal we're also typically underpaying for their services, they come much cheaper during the best years of their career. Let the larger markets overpay them and regret the big contracts later. It sort of irks me that I'm always trying to juggle production vs cost trying to come up with relative value. When that value is already defined for the life of a contract, it truly can make decisions about talent as opposed to a combination of talent and cost. There will certainly be situations where a team might want to go with the cheaper prospect, just because he's cheaper, but I think having the costs accurately defined make those decisions much easier. Hardy/Escobar is an excellent example, is Hardy a 5 mil, 8 mil, 10 mil, 12 mil, 18 mil player? We can guess, but we really don't know what his fair market would be in FA, so it makes the entire debate that much more cloudy from the start.

 

I hope this makes sense, most of the time I know exactly what I'm trying to say, but then when you all read what I wrote my posts tend to get taken a different direction than I intended because I don't express myself very well.

[giffted1]

I'm counting 07, 08 and 09. All years in which the Brewers started hot, then had meltdowns that made making the playoffs questionable (despite remaining "in contention"). And yes, I don't see them getting the lead back this year either.

Would you have felt better if they started cold and ended hot? Every team in baseball goes through hot streaks and cold streaks.

 

So what. Isn't it Melvin's job to be the knowledgeable baseball guy and maybe explain that that signing was a bad idea. Maybe he did try and MA pulled rank, if so, fine. His recent signings of Gagne, Mota, Kendall, Riske, Looper, Julio and Duffy (among others) have not been all that reassuring. I will say the DM's trade activity has been decent and has not hurt the team the way his FA signings have.

The only bad contracts in that bunch are Gagne and Riske (a contract that many liked initially).

 

Solid is not the word I would used to describe Suppan. He has been a poor starter for the Brewers every year of his contract. ERA's of 4.62, 4.96 and 4.71, WHIP's of 1.5, 1.54 and 1.65, and BAA of .298, .298 and .302 are NOT solid. Bottom line, Suppan has not given the Brewers many chances to win games over the last 2.5 seasons and $42 million is a lot to pay for poor pitching.

No. The bottom line is that while overpaid, Suppan is fine for a back of the rotation starter.

 

What has he done to be underpaid? I think $10million is a bit much for a .251/.348/.472/.820(over his season and a half) player. Not bad numbers, but not worthy of that much money. Oh wait, I forgot, he's a great clubhouse guy. Is that what he's being paid for though?

Fangraphs put Cameron's value at $18 million last. Center fielders with those offensive numbers and solid defense are worth that much. Cameron's contract is a feather in Melvin's cap.

Fine. Explain it to me then. Apparently I'm missing something about the past moves and past performance of this team that warrant optimism. Seriously, someone explain to me why I should believe in DM. I'm open minded, I'd love to hear more positive opinions. I would love to see him and the Brewers succeed.

Compare Melvin's work to that of other managers, and you'll see that he's one of the better ones. Maybe seeing that even a highly regard GM like Theo Epstein traded away Hanley Ramirez will make you feel better about Melvin.

[bucks2281]

I'm counting 07, 08 and 09. All years in which the Brewers started hot, then had meltdowns that made making the playoffs questionable (despite remaining "in contention"). And yes, I don't see them getting the lead back this year either.

 

The Brewers were 80-56 on the morning of September 1. They, far and away, held the 2nd best record in the NL. Yes, they collapsed for three weeks, but you're failing to recognize the way they came through in the clutch during the final 7 games. Teams go on hot and cold streaks. Keep in mind that the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals lost 10 or 11 games in a row in late September -- I think that's true, although I can't say for certain. Contenders have "meltdowns" all the time -- that's part of the game. Plus, in 2007, the Cubs were playing like the best team in baseball for 2-3 months -- they were on quite the hot stretch from early June through August.

 

Edit: And, props to Crew07. Well said.

[endaround]

The fact that you say Melvin didn't bring in any prospects doesn't make it true. He did. He got Jorge De La Rosa, Zach Jackson, Jose Capellan, and Carlos Villaneuva. Capuano had all of 33 innings in Arizona before becoming a Brewers.

[Invader3K]

"And why are we so happy that the Brewers made the playoffs, only to embarrass themselves and prove, emphatically, that they did not belong there. Dougie's wonder pitching staff performed oh so well in the playoff series, didn't they."

 

They did belong there because they made it in. The Cubs had an outstanding season last year (I believe they lead the NL in wins, right?), but got swept. Did they "not belong", too? At least the Brewers won a playoff game, which I attended. I wouldn't give back the experience of watching on the last day of the season, seeing the Brewers clinch, and then seeing that winning game against the Phillies for anything.

 

This team had to get the monkey off it's back...not making the playoffs for over 25 years was making a mockery of the organization. We never have to hear about "since '82" again, and for that I'm very glad.

 

Sometimes it's also about business...to the casual fans, and many who renewed their tickets for this year, finally making the playoffs was a huge boon. I'll never understand how some on this site, of all places, can diminish that. After all, what's the point of being an MLB team if you never ever make the playoffs? I don't think one playoff appearance every 25 years is really demanding too much.

[PeaveyFury]

Linebrink is not and was not a significant trade.

 

You're correct that it was not on the level of CC. But that team's major weakness was a catastrophic bullpen, and Melvin went out and got the best RP on the market that July to try and address the issue. That's basically my point- the last two seasons the team has performed poorly in the 2nd half, but in each season Melvin made acquisitions to help the team. If they slump after the deadline, it's not because he sat there twiddling his thumbs in July.