Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[Thurston Fluff]

And BUC, are we in the hunt because we have a well built team, or is it because the division is painfully bad where 4 teams are with in 2 games of first?

 

I don't know if it's painfully bad. It's the only division that has 4 teams above .500 and the worst team in the division would be 4th in either of the other two NL divisions. I think sometimes it's easy to equate bad with parity. The division has parity thus no team will run away with it. Of course no team pads it's record on Cellar dwellers like the Nationals and Padres either. Last year the Dodgers won their division but would have been in 5th place in the central. Does that mean they were not contenders last year? All in all I think any team above .500 and in contention for a division title regardless of division strength can legitimately be considered a contender.

[nate82]

The NL Central is not the weakest division in the NL or in MLB it is probably one of the strongest behind the AL East. I would rank the strength of divisions like this AL East, NL Central, AL West, NL West, AL Central, NL East. The NL East has definitely been the weakest division this year they are like the NL West of last year. This is all in terms of competition and not looking at the talent levels though.

 

The NL Central is the strongest division in the NL. With 4 teams in the race for the division plus all of them also in the race for the wild card I don't see that as a weak division only two teams you could consider weak in the NL Central with one being a moderately good team in the Reds.

 

I don't see why Melvin should be fired. He made a mistake with Suppan sure but that could also be contributed to Mark A. also wanting a big free agent signing. As much as everyone praises Jack Z on his picks he sure did miss a lot with his pitching picks though. He did a great job with the positional player picks but not so great with the pitching picks. No one is perfect though so looking at Melvin and Jack Z both have their warts and I believe both are equaly talented as GM's and neither one would be a huge upgrade over each other.

[MJLiverock]

It's a sound financial strategy for a small/medium market GM to tie up his best young players long term. I don't think I was around here when Hall signed his contract, but I'd be curious to know the reaction at the time. Everyone here championed Braun's lengthy contract after only season of major league experience. Strike me down for even mentioning it, but it's possible he develops chronic back issues or some such similar thing that makes him a mediocre player halfway through the term. Will that be Melvin's fault too?

 

I never fully bought the Bando regime spin about Hall being a True Talent. On the other hand, he had 3 seasons in his early-mid 20's when he showed marked improvement each year in every aspect of his game. He was heading to arbitration as a starting ss who'd just posted an .899 OPS with 35 home runs. Not quite Hanley Ramirez territory, but close. Melvin saved money over what Hall would have cost through arbitration in 2007 and 2008. Of course going forward it's a terrible deal. But amortized as $6 million a year over 4 years is not that bad of a deal given Hall's two seasons leading up to the contract.

I think my line of thought on locking up Hall had to do with knowing that Hardy, Braun, and Weeks were expected to man SS, 3B, and 2B so why lock up a guy with no position, who despite having a good year and a half really wasn't touted as much of a can't miss guy, unless of course Melvin thought he could lock him up and trade him but that doesn't seem to be his M.O. nor did we hear much about trading Hall for pitching while he was hot. This is a great example of trying to deal from a strength to improve the team, Hall probably had some value to someone coming off that season and playing SS (he had enough to Melvin to lock him up), the team had Hardy waitiing, and Escobar would have been in the low A or rookie ball system around then as well. They may have actually been able to get a decent starting pitching prospect for him then. It wasn't like the Brewers have been awash in pitching depth at any time and frankly a team can never have too much pitching because trading away pitching is easy in comparison to aquiring it. Trading a spare ML SS for a couple AA pitchers may have been a much better route.

 

 

I am not saying he should be fired over it, but as some have said the lack of foresight or imagination in trying to improve the team for more than just quick fillers seems to be hurting the team by getting them in binds. He had Cruz, traded for Nix, then scrambled to find a 4th OFer. Traded Gwynn for a guy who never gets to play to see if he can be a solution (not necessarily his fault but at some point he has to want to see if Gerut can still play). Branyan was on the team but run off because Bill Hall was still around and the team has constantly searched for LH power for the bench or everyday lineup. It looks as though there is lack of a bigger plan sometimes and the team is reacting to whatever brush fire pops up.

[nate82]

The only time I believe Hall was brought up in trade talks was last off season or the beginning of the season last year along with Capuano. I believe the trade was Hall and Capuano for Rolen and something else I can't remember if that was true or not.

 

If the Brewers would have pulled off that trade it would have been very interesting to say the least. Of course Cappy was injured and Hall was somewhat ineffective last year his splits against lefties was rather good last year and there was a perfect platoon with Hall and Branyan last year.

 

Also didn't Hardy get injured in 2006 where he hurt his ankle. I believe that had to be in the back of Melvin's head also what if Hardy didn't fully recover from that injury and you just traded your only other MLB SS on your roster then what? It is easy to say right now what Melvin should or shouldn't have done but since there isn't a time machine where you can go into the future or back in time you can't really fault Melvin for signing Hall to that deal which really isn't a bad deal that everyone makes it out to be. It was definitely a below market contract when it was done and the Brewers are only on the hook for one more year with Hall and then a buyout of 500k in '11. That is nowhere near as bad as some of the other contracts like Wells, Matthews Jr., and the deal the Dodgers gave Jones and Pierre.

[TheCrew07]

I want DM to spend money on the truly talented players.

 

ummm, yeah?

 

If this is how we are going to critisize GMs, there isn't one in the league that deserves to keep their job. Every GM has spent money on a bad player.

Is it possible that this entire topic touched a nerve and you're just glossing over posts?

 

Let me try to explain this a different way...

 

I want a GM to identify a "core" set of players. I'm not interested in retaining our best players for a measly 6 years, I want years of FA bought out, I want to control those guys 7,8,9 years. No one in this first wave of players was extended because Melvin just plugged holes and spent money, but didn't necessarily spend it wisely. There aren't any crippling contracts besides Hall. Yes I know I've hated on Hall since he first came up, he's just not my guy. Suppan is at least a decent back of the rotation starter, Hall isn't anything. Instead of extending the core and extending the window with them, he went year to year in arbitration. Would Fielder have signed a Braun deal in that first season? I have no idea, but I think the chances were better when he was a rookie than were last season or this off-season.

 

I realize those contracts include a great deal of risk in the event of injury or poor performance, but it was clear from the start that players like Braun and Fielder would be special offensive players. I want those guys extended out as long as they are willing to sign. That's all I'm saying. I would like some of the pitchers extended to contracts like James Shields signed in TB, what a wonderful deal that is. The thing is, DM can't sit on his hands waiting for them to prove their value for multiple years, you have to get them early when they are making league minimum. As the big payday approaches players are less inclined to sign that type of deal.

 

The longer you extend your core, the easier roster management becomes, and the more value your players have. When have players signed to reasonable long-term deals you can make decisions based mostly on talent. If you have a prospect who's ready but blocked, you can move him to a different position, trade him, or trade the exisiting MLB player based purely on talent and who's the best fit for the team. Melvin's approach taking it one year at time limits a player's service time in Milwaukee and makes the financial concerns as important as the talent. I hope I'm explaining what I mean so people can understand me.

 

I want money spent on the core of the team first, our talent, then fill in the rest of the holes as best as you can. Paying Suppan 12+ bothers me only because he's the highest paid player on the team and he's a 5th starter. It's a fair market deal, but I want no part of paying pitchers fair market value because the only pitchers we can afford the way the team is operates is league average type guys, and as I already have stated numerous times I do not like paying for mediocrity.

 

As an aside. Kazmir, Garza, and Jackson weren't homegrown players for the Rays, but all of them have top of the rotation stuff. Melvin did a great job building an average pitching staff, he acquired numerous capable MLB pitchers, but he didn't acquire anyone of significant talent. Jack Z got one shot to draft a kid, and then DM has numerous opportunities to trade or fill in the gaps left by the drafting. When Jones and then Rogers got hurt, the team should have been looking to make moves then, not trying to plug holes now. I've taken Z to task for his drafting of pitchers in the past, but I think they are both responsible for the derth of high ceiling pitching talent in the organization. DM had his chances to aggressively fix the situation along the way and hasn't. He seems to prefer dealing for proven MLB players, and I truly hate to keep pointing at the Rays, but they built that pitching staff exactly the way I've wanted DM to build ours. The have a team that has money being spent in the correct places, a team ripe with talent, and a very economical team to boot. Yes drafting at the top didn't hurt, but that's how the Brewers acquring Weeks, Fielder, and Braun... we've been in a similar place in the past. The amount of pitching talent they've stockpiled is truly impressive.

 

It's not about spending 90 million because that's the budget, it's about spending 90 million in the best way possible. It drive me nuts when people take the Packers to task for being under the salary cap. Who made a rule that you have to spend the money because it's available? Just because many people operate that way with their personal finances doesn't make it sound financial planning. In the same I don't want DM making moves and spending money for the sake of doing it. Have a long-term plan, lock up our key assets early, create flexibility and value, simplify roster management, and extend the competitive window as long as possible.

[lcbj68c]

TheCrew07...have you taken over my brain? Somebody give this guy an honorary degree in sports management.

[joepepsi]

I want a GM to identify a "core" set of players. I'm not interested in retaining our best players for a measly 6 years, I want years of FA bought out, I want to control those guys 7,8,9 years. No one in this first wave of players was extended because Melvin just plugged holes and spent money, but didn't necessarily spend it wisely. There aren't any crippling contracts besides Hall. Yes I know I've hated on Hall since he first came up, he's just not my guy. Suppan is at least a decent back of the rotation starter, Hall isn't anything. Instead of extending the core and extending the window with them, he went year to year in arbitration. Would Fielder have signed a Braun deal in that first season? ...

 

I realize those contracts include a great deal of risk in the event of injury or poor performance, but it was clear from the start that players like Braun and Fielder would be special offensive players. I want those guys extended out as long as they are willing to sign. ...

 

The longer you extend your core, the easier roster management becomes, and the more value your players have. When have players signed to reasonable long-term deals you can make decisions based mostly on talent....

 

I want money spent on the core of the team first, our talent, then fill in the rest of the holes as best as you can....

I think Melvin has done or tried to do many of the things you want. He identified Hall as part of the core set of players and offered him a longer term contract. Hall was blocked at ss by a healthy, better fielding Hardy, so he was moved to a different position, CF. He didn't wait on Braun; he signed him long to a long term deal after one season. Reportedly Prince was offered a 5 year deal that same Spring, but he turned it down.

 

I'm not sure though, that extending all your "core" young players buys you payroll and roster flexibility. Hall has hampered flexibility. What if Hardy had been signed long term sometime in the previous two seasons. What would everybody be saying about Melvin now? What if Hart was signed long term?

 

I think it's very dangerous to sign young pitchers long term in their first year or two. The injury/ineffectiveness risk is way too high. If Yo finishes this season in fine form, then a 3-4 year deal should be put on the table. But I'd hold off on Parra for a while, although I think he will turn out to be a fine pitcher.

 

I think it's very easy to evaluate a GM looking back, but a very difficult job to do in the present. There is a tremendous amount of risk to calculate in the front, a lot of luck to hope for in the present, and pretty easy to quantify looking back.

[lcbj68c]

Look at the contracts of Neimann and Price. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

 

Edited..was listening to the Rays postgame on the radio and mind over mattered the names

[JJHardy7]

It's not about spending 90 million because that's the budget, it's about spending 90 million in the best way possible. It drive me nuts when people take the Packers to task for being under the salary cap. Who made a rule that you have to spend the money because it's available? Just because many people operate that way with their personal finances doesn't make it sound financial planning. In the same I don't want DM making moves and spending money for the sake of doing it. Have a long-term plan, lock up our key assets early, create flexibility and value, simplify roster management, and extend the competitive window as long as possible.

 

That's really not a fair comparison...with a cap and revenue sharing most NFL teams have the cash to easily exceed the cap. Baseball unfortunately doesn't work that way. The more money you can spend the more talent you can bring in....if you know what you're doing.

 

You are right about using the Brewers money the best way a big contracts. You can't afford too many misses on long-term deals. You can have some short-term deals that don't work as long as those players aren't crucial pieces to a team that is contending.

[CWSOmaha]

TheCrew07...

Nice job at expaining your position. I totally agree about both DM and JZ being responsible for the derth of top P prospects. I never thought about DM and the year to year thing but now realize it and it makes sense.

[zzzmanwitz]

Is it possible that this entire topic touched a nerve and you're just glossing over posts?

 

This topic has definitely struck a nerve with me, but it doesn't mean I just gloss over posts.

 

What bothers me the most are a few major points...

 

A) Jack Z is responsible for all of our success, but Melvin is to blame for our lack of pitching.

 

Why is there a double standard here? If you want to give JZ the credit for our great hitters, then give him the blame for no young pitching depth.

 

B) Bad Contracts to Cameron/Riske/Hall

 

Cameron is a great deal at 10 Million, I find it hard to believe people still don't get that. Riske got hurt, we maybe paid a little much for him, but when he was signed, he was viewed as a candidate for the closer's job for 2-3 years. Hall had two great seasons and was a top 3 SS in the majors. He has actually saved money over the course of Bill Hall's arbitration years than if he had not signed him. (I don't like Bill Hall, but I understand why the deal was made).

 

C) He traded Nelson Cruz... LOOK AT HIM NOW!!! Tony Gwynn Jr. is doing awesome and Gerut is doing nothing!

 

Cruz never showed the ability to perform at the major league level when he was with the Brewers. Yes, he had skills, and he his showing them now, but he had his chance with the Crew and it didn't work. We got Laynce Nix out of the deal who is now a regular contributor to the Reds, and he's done damage to the Brewers this year.

 

TGJ had a hot month and is coming back to earth. He's a singles hitter that plays average Corner OF defense and below average CF defense. Gerut has shown he can OPS over .800 for a season. I'll take him 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

 

D) He didn't fire Yost soon enough.

 

Managers MAYBE account for a win or two a year. They just don't have that big of an impact.

 

I think Melvin has made mistakes, but he's made WAY more good moves. Where would we be without McGehee or Todd Coffey? He picked them up off of Waivers. Dan Kolb came from no where. We got Jose Capellan for him, who netted us Chris Cody, who is one of our highest level good pitching prospects. He picked up Doug Davis from the abyss. The Richie Sexson trade??? It seems like one or two bad moves make Melvin the root of all evil and make him expendable in some brewer fan's eyes.

[joepepsi]

Look at the contracts of Shields and Sonnastine. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

Shields is signed 4 years/$11.25 million, with some pretty hefty option years after that. But I agree, that's a nice contract for the Rays with minimal risk. Sonnastine is making $430,000 this year, unless the Cott's website is wrong.

 

It's not really fair to pick and choose contracts. Kazmir is signed to a 3 year/ $28.5 million deal with a 4th year option that pays an additional $13.5 million if they pick it up. He's a great pitcher, but he's not doing so well this year.

[MJLiverock]

Melvin was the GM you take the lumps with the praise so I include him with Jack Z in the pitching problems. But now without Jack Z what is Melvin & Co. going to do with their picks - - not saying they will fail just that w/ Jack Z. they had a lot of success in drafting hitters.

 

I dont' think Cameron was a bad contract, it has basically been year to year filling a position where there hasn't been anyone in the organization with the ability to do it consistently. It is a good use of money that is available from cheap younger players at other positions. Which is why the Hall signing is so bad - - they had cheap options with loads of talent that were expected to be good at Hall's positions - - no need to lock him up after a surprisingly good season. He was still under team control and could have been traded to help a glaring weakness elsewhere like CF, C, Pitching rather than try to change his position or hope he wasn't a flash in the pan. The Hall situation also lead to the driving out of Branyan when the team needed a LH bat in the lineup besides Prince.

 

The trading of Cruz for Nix wasn't horrible, two former top prospects who hadn't made it yet. But as you said Nix is now a decent bench player for the Reds while the Brewers scrambled around looking for a 4th outfielder and LH'd bats for the bench which Nix could have been. Gwynn may not be a superstar but he can play CF which if Cam leaves is going to open a hole. I thought Gerut was a nice additon, he has proven some success at the ML level and Gwynn wasn' t a high price but Gerut never plays so I can't be sure one way or the other on him. If Melvin cuts and runs on Gerut like Cruz, like Nix, like Nelson, it was just a wasted trade of a trade piece.

 

The Yost situation was confusing to say the least but Attanasio had to finally step in and force the move, otherwise he would probably still be here. I think this plays into the lack of creativity or plan argument, he doesn't seem to want to rock the boat much and is content with picking up the scraps of other teams to try an plug leaks in the ship. He scours the bottom and picks up a ton of guys, some of whom pan out, some don't. Nothing wrong with that but it is pretty hard to build a championsip team that way, especially when the pitching staff is made up of those types of players. Filling in a few spots of the 12 or 13 pitchers is fine, but when most of the staff and AAA is filled that way... well we are reaping those results now with one of the worst pitching staffs in the NL.

[lcbj68c]

Cameron is a great deal at 10 Million

 

Indeed he is, but wouldn't you rather have a Matt Garza type ($400,000), Lorenzo Cain/Gwynn Jr (400,000), and then the remaining 9.2M on say a great free agent...

Matsuzaka, Haren...are between 8-9 million as an example. Give me those 3 players over 1 CF.

[lcbj68c]

Look at the contracts of Shields and Sonnastine. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

Shields is signed 4 years/$11.25 million, with some pretty hefty option years after that. But I agree, that's a nice contract for the Rays with minimal risk. Sonnastine is making $430,000 this year, unless the Cott's website is wrong.

 

It's not really fair to pick and choose contracts. Kazmir is signed to a 3 year/ $28.5 million deal with a 4th year option that pays an additional $13.5 million if they pick it up. He's a great pitcher, but he's not doing so well this year.

 

Look at the contracts of Neimann and Price. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

 

Edited..was listening to the Rays postgame on the radio and mind over mattered the names

[Paulus88]

Only if your sure that the Cain/Gwynn duo can equal Cameron's production. Oh yeah and we wouldn't have Gamel because we would have traded him to get Garza.

 

But I think the bigger worry is what happens in two years to this ballclub. All of the young guy's salary increase through arbitration yet you still have major money tied up Matsuzaka/ Haren.

[zzzmanwitz]

How would you have gotten Matt Garza? He was traded for a former #1 draft pick with problems? What could the brewers have offered to get him?

 

Matsuzaka wouldn't sign with Milwaukee, and he costs more than 8-9 Million, he was 50 million just to talk to him.

 

Haren would be great. I'm sure Melvin tried to sign him. He's making 44 million over 4 years and maybe liked the weather in Arizona better than Milwaukee.

 

Would I rather have Garza + Haren + TGJ over Cameron + Looper + Parra? Yes. But how do you get it done? Its not magic.

[zzzmanwitz]

I doubt Gamel netted Garza.

[Paulus88]

I doubt Gamel netted Garza.

I think for arguments sake we can replace Gamel's name with #1 can't miss type prospect (despite the fact that Young is sort of missing)

 

[MJLiverock]

Would I rather have Garza + Haren + TGJ over Cameron + Looper + Parra? Yes. But how do you get it done? Its not magic.

I agree its not magic but substitute some of those names with other similar players if you are thinking 2 and 3 moves ahead. This is my criticism of Melvin, his move seem predicated on filling whatever immediate hole he sees rather than looking out longer term or making moves to address multiple needs or willingness to reduce one area if he can improve other areas by a greater degree. I think this what makes the true genius GM and why I don't think Melvin is there or is a top 5 GM as some have said. He is OK, probably middle of the pack, no atrocious mistakes like trading a Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano but nothing really spectacular either. I'll give him some credit with the draft of hitters but Jack Z also gets some and both also share the blame of horrible pitching talent in the upper levels.

[Paulus88]

Look at the contracts of Neimann and Price. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

 

Edited..was listening to the Rays postgame on the radio and mind over mattered the name

So you think the Brewers should draft better pitchers (since both of those players are on their original contracts). I don't think you'll get much argument there

[lcbj68c]

Only if your sure that the Cain/Gwynn duo can equal Cameron's production. Oh yeah and we wouldn't have Gamel because we would have traded him to get Garza.

 

But I think the bigger worry is what happens in two years to this ballclub. All of the young guy's salary increase through arbitration yet you still have major money tied up Matsuzaka/ Haren.

As opposed to major money in Suppan types? I prefer this method. Even if Cain/Gwynn don't pan out, what did he cost 400,000?

 

Zack, I'm done with the excuses, seriously. We can play what if all day, as there are 30,000+ combinations of ballplayers given all the teams and leagues. I don't have the short answer as to what he could have done, all I know is that he didn't do it. That's the only evidence I have, short of conversations overheard in the front offices. In addition, I said, Garza-type, not Garza himself.

[joepepsi]

Look at the contracts of Neimann and Price. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

 

Edited..was listening to the Rays postgame on the radio and mind over mattered the names

Both Neimann and Price are under the contracts they signed when drafted! If the Brewers had the top draft pick in 2007, I'm sure they would have picked Price and signed him to a similar contract.

 

The Brewers had the next pick in 2004 after Neimann was chosen. They drafted Mark Rogers and gave him a $2.2 million bonus, but fortunately didn't sign him to the 5 year major league deal Neimann got.

[lcbj68c]

Look at the contracts of Neimann and Price. What risk? 5 million over 5 years?

 

Edited..was listening to the Rays postgame on the radio and mind over mattered the name

So you think the Brewers should draft better pitchers (since both of those players are on their original contracts). I don't think you'll get much argument there

Correct...in addition to filling the ace's with free agency...it's a package deal. Be good at both and spend wisely.

[zzzmanwitz]

Zack, I'm done with the excuses, seriously. We can play what if all day, as there are 30,000+ combinations of ballplayers given all the teams and leagues. I don't have the short answer as to what he could have done, all I know is that he didn't do it. That's the only evidence I have, short of conversations overheard in the front offices. In addition, I said, Garza-type, not Garza himself.

 

Its pretty clear that you and I will never agree on this, but like has been said before, its easy to judge after seeing results. Trades like Delmon Young for Matt Garza are not very common. The Rays were able to do it because of the large amount of talent they had from drafting in the top 10 for 11 straight years. It would have been the equivalent us trading Ryan Braun for Clayton Kershaw a couple of years ago. Teams hold onto their top home grown guys, you may disagree with that method, but it's pretty common practice throughout the league. I'm not too sure what else to say to that.