Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[bklynbrewcrew]

How about a guy like Brandon Morrow as an example of the type of young arm that Melvin could have had but didnt make happen. He was traded from Seattle to Toronto for a reliever (Brandon League) and an OF prospect.

The reason he was had for such a good price is that many/most don't think he can be a starter, due to his diabetes & BB problems

Maybe he wont make it as a starter but he is exactly the type of high upside starter that this team should have taken a chance on instead of signing the low ceiling Doug Davis. Its not like Toronto gave up much for a guy who throws in the high 90s and is still very young. I would not fault Melvin if we acquired Morrow and he didnt pan out because at least the potential for greatness is there which you cannot say about anyone in our rotation besides Gallardo.

 

 

[Ennder]

A lot of people think Toronto lost that deal because of how good League is, I think you are downplaying what it would take to get Morrow a bit here. I'd personally rather just throw Parra in the rotation all year and see if he sticks than trade for Morrow. They both have upside and both could be disasters.

[Teatoe993]

It's not like Melvin hasn't acquired young high upside pitching in the past. After the Sexon deal it took De La Rosa five years and three organizations for De La Rosa to show results. Capuano didn't have a ton of velocity but he did make an all star game and became a serviceable middle of the rotation starter until he got hurt. In the Kolb deal, Capellan was a flame throwing starting prospect for the Braves. He didn't do very much in the bullpen in the couple years he was here. Now he's pitching in Korea. In the Overbay deal we picked up Bush and Zach Jackson. Bush has turned into a decent bottom of the rotation starter. Jackson was packaged in the Sabathia deal and is now up and down between AAA and the big club in Cleveland.

We've had a few home grown prospects that flamed out when they made the big club. Hendrickson was awful. Eveland was bad too. But he is still in the big leagues starting for Toronto.

Right now we have Parra who is the prototypical high upside guy like Morrow who people wanted us to trade for. Why don't we just see how Manny does instead of giving up some pieces to acquire the same kind of guy who has just as much a chance of failing as Parra.

[PeaveyFury]

It's not like Melvin hasn't acquired young high upside pitching in the past.

 

Exactly. While there is some understandable concern that they haven't traded for De la Rosa-types in recent years, the shift away from acquiring that sort of talent has correlated directly with the state of the team. Taking chances on guys like Capellan, de la Rosa, Jackson, etc made a bunch of sense for the 2002-2006 Brewers with where the team was at that point, but since then the Brewers have clearly felt that they haven't had the luxury of throwing guys like de la Rosa out there to see if they stick and have instead shifted to supplementing their rotation with proven veterans. I think it's fair to wonder if the Brewers figured that Gallardo, Parra, and to a lesser extent Villanueva (who showed promise as a starter early on in his Major League career) would be the young pitching they'd rely on and turned their acquisitions to veterans to offset the uncertainty that the younger guys had/have while developing. Obviously, Parra's struggles have hurt the team in a major way.... I truly feel that if Parra had worked out as we expected last year, that our pitching issues the last two seasons could have been almost completely avoided.

 

Whether putting the team's faith in our internal youth was a mistake is debatable, but I think the motives behind the moves the team has made in the last couple of years with the pitching staff aren't hard to rationalize.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Bottom line is Melvin has rarely ever had high upside young pitching on his teams. In his days in Texas and with the Brewers he has relied way too heavily on soft tossing average at best veterans like Davis, Suppan, and Burkett. Teams dont win championships on the arms of Doug Davis and Suppan. I dont blame Doug for Jorge De La Rosa developing years after we dealt him away but most of Melvin's pitching acquistions have been soft tossers without big upsides. Capuano and Jackson were both soft tossers and neither had ace potential and that is what we have been missing. I read somewhere recently that the Brewers current rotation has the lowest average velocity of any rotation in baseball and the results clearly bare that out.

 

Doug has clearly relied heavily on pitchability vs velocity and it has cost this team dearly. Instead of signing veterans like Davis and Wolf we should be targeting guys like Morrow who may possibly flame out but have top of the rotation stuff that has the chance to be harnessed. Melvin instead has taken the easy way out acquiring veterans who are average and as a result we are basically a .500 team.

[Teatoe993]

Teams dont win championships on the arms of Doug Davis and Suppan.

 

To be honest the 2006 NL Champion St. Louis Cardinals might disagree.

[PeaveyFury]

Teams dont win championships on the arms of Doug Davis and Suppan.

 

No, not typically, but they usually fill in rotations with guys like that. Unless you're the Yankees, you're going to find almost every team with a 4.5 ERA guy in the 4-5 spot in the rotation. You're talking about getting guys like Davis and expecting them to be one of the top pitchers on the staff, which clearly wasn't the expectation heading into this season. He was brought in to supplement what we already have, and that IS what contending teams typically do.

[The Truth]

Yes every team has a 4.50 ERA guy in the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation but not every team spends $10 million a year on a veteran 4.50 ERA guy like Suppan and puts him as the # 2 or #3 spot in the rotation, especially a small market team

 

Bottom line is the money spent on Suppan, Gagne, and Hall could have been much more wisely spent (like on Ben Sheets!) and that along with hiring Ken Macha is plenty enough reason to fire Melvin. Throw in giving away Nelson Cruz in a trade that made little sense, misjudging Nelson Cruz vs Corey Hart, selling low on Hall, Hardy, De La Rosa and others, and the reasons start piling up

[Teatoe993]

Sheets was on the DL in 2005 and twice in 2006. He missed the last month+ in 2007 due to injury. Sheets was on the DL twice in 2008. Sheets missed all of 2009 due to injury. Sheets in 2010 is pitching with a 5.00 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 14 K, 14 BB. That's not including the 6 ER in 3 innings today. This is the guy we should have locked up?

This thread would still exist if Sheets was on our roster.

[Ennder]

Throw in giving away Nelson Cruz in a trade that made little sense, misjudging Nelson Cruz vs Corey Hart, selling low on Hall, Hardy, De La Rosa and others, and the reasons start piling up

 

This sounds like a pretty large case of hindsight being 20/20 here. Cruz took until his age 27 season to do anything and the major part of the deal which was Lee for Cordero did make sense, De La Rosa took multiple years and multiple organizations to do anything. Hardy hasn't really shown that we sold low on him yet, he is being every bit as bad as last year. Same with Hall who has been terrible since we got rid of him.

 

The Suppan and Gagne deals were clearly bad though, I'll give you that much.

[TheCrew07]

JDLR was a high upside pitcher no doubt, but he had significant control issues and was nearly out of options in addition to being stalled in AAA. He is not someone I would have championed if that situation came back around today, I'm a much more educated fan today. He remains the only high upside pitcher Melvin has acquired via trade, and that was in first off season as the GM of the Brewers. Can we stop pretending that he's acquired anyone with top of the rotation talent since then?

 

Capuano is/was a finesse pitcher.

Bush is a finesse pitcher.

Jackson is a finesse pitcher.

Villy is a finesse pitcher.

Cody is a finesse pitcher.

Davis is a finesse pitcher (wire claim).

Ohka was a finesse pitcher.

Vargas is a finesse pitcher.

Cappelan - who knows what the organization saw here, his velocity was never close to what he was advertised as. He topped out at 93 as a reliever.

Butler- The most projectable of all the pitchers acquired since JDLR, but looks to be a back of the rotation starter at best.

 

Yes every team has to fill out it's rotation, but that's not really the point people are making. It's same argument that was continually made for Suppan... it doesn't matter if he's league average for a 5th starter, that wasn't the role he was acquired to fill. Sure some of those guys had nice seasons at various times, but they got bye solely on pitchability. Those pitchers also have so little margin for error that you tend to get significant swings in their results from year to year.

 

What has Melvin done for the starting pitching since 2007 when the team looked to be on the verge? Where are the other top of the rotation starting pitchers this team so desperately needed to go with it's core of positional talent, especially once Sheets had trouble staying healthy? We had Yo in the pipeline, that was it at the time. Braddock, Rogers, Parra, and Jones were hurt... where was the pitching going to come from if not acquired via trade? Even Melvin's FA acquisitions have been the same type of finesse pitchers in Suppan and Wolf.

 

We can maybe get to the post season with Yo, Wolf, and 3 other guys but we don't match up with any team rotation wise in the post season. We didn't even match up in 2008 with Sabathia as a rental. This isn't about clawing our way into the playoffs, it's about truly being competitive once we get there. Our rotation is currently Yo, Wolf, Davis, Bush, and Narveson but with 2 different moves along the way it could have been like Yo, Buchholz/Jackson/Niemann, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson/Parra. Which rotation would you rather have? Which is the most cost effective? Which would be the most productive?

 

I'm just throwing names out there of guys there were on the block, available, or traded for by other teams. Yea Buchholz wasn't available last season, but he was prior, just like Niemann was available in 2008 but not in 2009. I was never high on Matt Cain but I was wrong about him, he's become a very solid pitcher despite a lower K rate, he was another pitcher on the block prior to 2009.

 

Melvin wasn't limited to the current rotation, he just doesn't trade for upside pitching after getting burned by JDLR and Justin Thompson, he pursues pitchers and players with high floors because they carry less risk. In fact he got lucky that Parra and Rogers have come back to be starting pitchers at all. I completely and totally reject the notion that Melvin did the best he could with the starting rotation, he took by far the most conservative course he could once the team became truly competitive and that includes acquiring Sabathia. What could be more safe than trading 4 players the organization wouldn't miss for a former CY winner? Even if the trade hadn't worked out many fans still would have been fine with the deal because he "went for it". There was absolutely no short term downside with that move at all, and many people refuse to see the 2009 as even partial fallout of the Sabathia deal, which it clearly was as we burned our most expendable assets for a 4 month solution and didn't have much left besides Hardy to deal with following the trade.

 

As a point of curiosity, google the Juan Gonzalez trade some time and look at how many of those players were ultimately signed by the Brewer organization.

[PeaveyFury]

We didn't even match up in 2008 with Sabathia as a rental.

 

Only because Sheets got hurt. I'd have put a short rotation of Sabathia/Sheets/Parra/Bush against anyone that offseason which was back before Parra and Bush imploded for whatever reasons.

 

In fact he got lucky that Parra and Rogers have come back to be starting pitchers at all.

 

Since neither of them have proven to be EFFECTIVE starters, I'm not sure how lucky he really got here.

 

he just doesn't trade for upside pitching after getting burned by JDLR and Justin Thompson, he pursues pitchers and players with high floors because they carry less risk.

 

I'm just not convinced that there's any shred of evidence to support this idea instead of the idea that they simply wanted veteran pitching to fill out the rotation as they became contenders. The shift in their type of acquisitions is directly in line with the shift in the team's competitiveness, which is probably a more logical conclusion than a fear of acquiring a type of player just because De la Rosa was a bust.

[The Truth]

Sheets was on the DL in 2005 and twice in 2006. He missed the last month+ in 2007 due to injury. Sheets was on the DL twice in 2008. Sheets missed all of 2009 due to injury. Sheets in 2010 is pitching with a 5.00 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 14 K, 14 BB. That's not including the 6 ER in 3 innings today. This is the guy we should have locked up?

I apologize, I haven't been up on Sheets' most recent games. We're talking about a very small sample here, he was a good solid pitcher in his first 4 starts, including giving up just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs the Yankees, and the game before that where he gave up 0 earned runs in 6 innings vs the Orioles... gives me reason to believe that the possibilities of Ben Sheets pitching like the old all-star pitcher he was, are still high. He'll turn 32 in July

 

But anyways, yes I'd have much rathered they gave Suppan and Gagne and Hall's money to Ben Sheets. Or Prince Fielder. The point being, those were horrendous signing that coupled with selling low on Hardy and Hall have handcuffed this organization for a few seasons and wasted much of the Prince Fielder window

 

I do give Melvin credit for the Ryan Braun signing, that was arguably his greatest move as a Brewers GM

[Postseason2006]

I am beginning to wonder how Mark A got his money. If the Brewers continue to lose, he's going to see losses at the gate because fans want a winner. The Bucks are a perfect example. You would think with him being around baseball his whole life, he would can Melvin/Macha and find a winning combo.

[Postseason2006]

3 shut outs in 4 days.

[TheCrew07]

I'm just not convinced that there's any shred of evidence to support this idea instead of the idea that they simply wanted veteran pitching to fill out the rotation as they became contenders. The shift in their type of acquisitions is directly in line with the shift in the team's competitiveness, which is probably a more logical conclusion than a fear of acquiring a type of player just because De la Rosa was a bust.

To address the first point which I didn't quote, you're right that Rogers hasn't done anything yet and to make mattersdock, Parra, and Jones are all in the pen. All the more reason he should have moved to acquire someone of #2 quality or better.

 

Getting back to the part I quoted, apparently it's just convenient to ignore the Justin Thompson deal being a miserable failure just prior to him getting canned in Texas, and every starting pitcher that Melvin has acquired since? Even in the Sexson deal he covered his bets with Cappy. Furthermore he's hasn't even traded for a MLB pitcher since the team became competitive so where is this shift in philosophy towards low ceiling players? I'd agree that he shifted his focus to rental deals and the deals for Linebrink and Lopez were completely unnecessary, but he's been acquiring the same type of pitcher since his first deal in Milwaukee. The list is only a few posts up... the names are all right there.

 

You've always defended Melvin, that's fine, you're certainly welcome to do whatever you want to do, but you've hardly been objective about his philosophy either. I was once like you, in Melvin I trusted... then I started looking at the state of the pitching, noticed what other teams were doing with their pitching, started reading more about pitching, started focusing on trends and value, and I've become progressively more frustrated with Melvin's lack of action since. Ultimately the proof will be in the results... when the team is only able to muster a single playoff appearance with Braun and Fielder together in the lineup then maybe you'll change your tune. I don't know.

 

I know this though, he's had plenty of assets since 2006 to burn on a young #2 type pitcher, someone with stuff around Yo's level, and we haven't acquired a single pitcher of that caliber via trade. I'm not talking about players that run it up there 95+, I'm talking about players who know how to pitch and work in the low 90s. How many of those pitchers Melvin acquired can even break 90 MPH on their best day? That's all I've been trying to point out.

[Ennder]

I know this though, he's had plenty of assets since 2006 to burn on a young #2 type pitcher, someone with stuff around Yo's level, and we haven't acquired a single pitcher of that caliber via trade

 

The assests in the Sabathia trade might have got this done, nobody else we traded could have though. These types of players aren't easy to find in trade and we are still at the point where every prospect we have has a spot on the roster. LaPorta was really the 1st redundant prospect we've had unless you want to count Cruz. To trade for a Gallardo type prospect you have to give up a ton of value. We could have picked up someone like Edwin Jackson probably but then look at how that is going this year, the guy is a 4.25 ERA talent pitcher not a #2.

 

If you look around the league most teams built their pitching from their own prospects, not via trades. If Melvin has been a failure at anything it has been in developing pitching from within.

[Omar Little]

TheCrew07 wrote:

I know this though, he's had plenty of assets since 2006 to burn on a young #2 type pitcher, someone with stuff around Yo's level, and we haven't acquired a single pitcher of that caliber via trade. I'm not talking about players that run it up there 95+, I'm talking about players who know how to pitch and work in the low 90s. How many of those pitchers Melvin acquired can even break 90 MPH on their best day? That's all I've been trying to point out.

I couldn't agree more with everything you said in your last post Crew07 but I especially like what you said above! DM has had plenty of assets to use to aquire a young pitcher but he hasn't done it...we don't even need to get started on him and Jack Z's poor track record in drafting pitchers during his tenure! At least it seemed like Bruce Seid(sp?) to get it when it comes to drafting pitchers.

 

My biggest concern with DM is having him in charge of working out the trade for Fielder! He's had a TON more misses than hits with the trades he's made and I don't trust him to get the most return for Prince in the trade market.

 

[PeaveyFury]

All the more reason he should have moved to acquire someone of #2 quality or better.

 

As I said before, the major problem with the rotation is that they went into last season assuming/counting on Parra to fill that role, as he had shown promise in 2008.

 

apparently it's just convenient to ignore the Justin Thompson deal being a miserable failure just prior to him getting canned in Texas

 

I didn't mention the Thompson deal because the de la Rosa deal happened after it- considering the pitching moves he made early in his Milwaukee tenure, how did the Thompson deal keep him from acquiring pitchers like de la Rosa and Capellan? Or are you claiming that the combination of the two was enough to put him off of those types of moves forever? Nothing "convenient" about it, just not following the logic or seeing how that's easier to prove than following the shift of what the team's developmental state went to.

 

Furthermore he's hasn't even traded for a MLB pitcher since the team became competitive so where is this shift in philosophy towards low ceiling players?

 

Where was the discussion restricted to only pitchers acquired by trade? People have been discussing Davis, Suppan, etc as part of this discussion. I'm discussing the whole picture, not limiting it to trades.

You've always defended Melvin, that's fine, you're certainly welcome to do whatever you want to do, but you've hardly been objective about his philosophy either.

 

Because I don't really disagree with the philosophy conceptually. Plugging veteran pitching into a rotation to supplement Gallardo and the young offense makes sense on paper. Obviously, the results aren't there and Suppan wasn't the right piece of the puzzle, but it's not hard to see the rationale or logic behind the overall idea. You've made it quite clear that you disagree with taking that approach, which is fine obviously, but you have to at least be willing to acknowledge that the way that you would prefer them to do this is not the one and only valid way to approach it.

 

Ultimately the proof will be in the results... when the team is only able to muster a single playoff appearance with Braun and Fielder together in the lineup

 

I remember having a lengthy debate with you at the trade deadline last year about the Brewers "window" being centered around Fielder's departure where you claimed that the Brewers' window was much longer than that... am I to read from your statement here that your opinion has changed?

[DougJones43]

Plugging veteran pitching into a rotation to supplement Gallardo and the young offense makes sense

If these veterans comprise 4/5ths of the starting rotation then it is not a supplement -- it is the main component. I really don't think anybody would have a problem if we had 3 talented pitchers with some upside, and then had guys like Wolf and Bush to fill out the other spots.

 

The reality is, entering this season we had four soft-tossers (ages 35, 34, 33, and 30) in the rotation. There is little to no upside there. And again, that's not a "supplement" but rather almost the entire rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really don't think anybody would have a problem if we had 3 talented pitchers with some upside, and then had guys like Wolf and Bush to fill out the other spots.

 

Add Narveson & Parra in, & we basically do. Narveson has worked his way into the rotation, but it looks like Manny will have to wait until someone gets injured to get his shot.

[DougJones43]

I really don't think anybody would have a problem if we had 3 talented pitchers with some upside, and then had guys like Wolf and Bush to fill out the other spots.

 

Add Narveson & Parra in, & we basically do. Narveson has worked his way into the rotation, but it looks like Manny will have to wait until someone gets injured to get his shot.

I think it might be a bit of a reach to include Narveson in the "talented pitcher with upside" group at this point, although I do suppose he could turn into the next Chris Capuano and he definitely has more upside than Davis or Suppan.

 

I agree with you on Parra, but in my view it's ultimately Melvin's fault (and appears to be in line with Melvin's philosophy on pitching and building a team) that a guy like Parra is stuck in the bullpen with his growth being stunted. Melvin blocked and buried him by signing Doug Davis and refusing to cut ties with Jeff Suppan this offseason.

 

If this team is going to make any noise, it's going to have to sink or swim with a guy like Manny Parra. The way this club is being handled under Melvin is a way that reeks of grasping for that 81st win every year, in my opinion.

[crewcrazy]

3 shut outs in 4 days.

I'm not sure what this post has to do with Melvin. This isn't a vent thread, and the reason why this thread has stayed open so long is because there's still quite a few posts that have clearly been well thought out. Let's keep it that way instead of posting one-liners that are likely to be hidden in the future.

[Teatoe993]

Bush was a fairly young guy when he was acquired as well. He had less than 2 years MLB experience under his belt when we got him.

[Postseason2006]

I am just curious as to why anyone thinks Melvin is a decent GM? He has not had a single trade we can honestly look back on that he's hit on to put the team over the top to be a winner. In fact, the Leinbrink trade is starting to possibly look like it was a bad one especially if Inman continues to pitch like he is.

 

He sold Hardy at his lowest point even though he had more than an ample opportunity to have moved him the year before to get some legitimate pitching possibly from Boston. To get pitching, you have to give up something to get. And Hardy offered teams a shortstop with some pop and good defense.

 

And this argument about Melvin taking us out of the depths of losing is nothing more than a myth. Ulice Payne taking over the team from Wendy was the start. Doug happened to be in the right place at the right time even though Dean Taylor started the improvement by stressing on player development which was lacking when back in the Bando era.

 

It was too bad Yost took the fall in 2008. It actually reminded me of Mike Sherman canning Donnatel trying to cover up for the team's biggest problem. In fact, Melvin then completely pulled a Sherman and had a complete buddy hire in Macha.