Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[dlk9s]

I don't know, guys. I really wish that Melvin had a 100% hit rate on his moves.

[zzzmanwitz]

And I'd argue it's foresight and scouting...not luck. Just a bit of foresight.

 

Bargain priced bullpen level talent over the course of 60-90 innings is going to be more effected by luck than foresight and scouting.

[shelmark]

zzmanwitz,

 

Seriously, Cruz would still be our 4th outfielder? Corey Hart is barely breathing these days, and Cruz was an all-star.

[zzzmanwitz]

Corey Hart has had one bad month and was an all star last season. Yes, Cruz would still be our 4th OF.

 

OPS+

April - 133

May - 68

June - 108

July - 92

 

Cruz has also had one bad month.

April - 102

May - 125

June - 54

July - 134

They have had two very similar season so far.

[endaround]

Hart over the last month .286/.390/.357. Is that great? No, but is avergeg given its so OBP dominant. Turn a few doubles into home runs and it would be great.

[zzzmanwitz]

Here's the other thing...

 

I much prefer a team that is in contention to win every year, even if they never have the best team in the league. I'd much rather watch a team that I know has a chance to win every day, than a team like the Marlins who put it together for a couple years, then suck for 7 or 8. I think the way this team is built puts focus on both the present and future. While this may bring some high expectations from fans, the overall enjoyment level will be greater.

[sgtcluels]

I don't understand WAR necessarily. But you are telling me that money spent on Suppan, Cameron, Hall, Hoffman, Kendall, Looper, Riske is money better spent than their potential replacements (Halladay, Cain, Irribarren, Coffey, Rivera, Vazquez?, Smith)? Not only do we save money, the rotation looks awesome while giving up very little at the plate with longer term solutions.

WAR is fairly simple. It's calculating the average player (Replacement Level) and giving them league min. Then you see how players perform compared to the replacement level, the value of the player is calculated by each marginal win they gain and what each marginal win is worth in the open market. It's kind of like VORP, but with fancy money.

[lcbj68c]

Bargain priced bullpen level talent over the course of 60-90 innings is going to be more effected by luck than foresight and scouting.

So, having the foresight to spend cheaply on the bullpen and have it not work out is better than the foresight for spending oodles of money on the bullpen and have it not work out? (ie..Gagne)...but yet if it does work out...how lucky!

[MJLiverock]

The problem with the Hall signing at the time was why the rush. The team had Hardy Weeks and Braun for the left side of the infield at a cheap rate. Hall was coming off a year in which he did better than anything he had ever shown at any level before and was still under team control. Why rush to lock him up knowing he had to either change positions to the OF or may have just had a career year? The scounting department had to know he has a big hole in his swing. Why the rush to sign vs. trade while the value was high if he was perceived as a good SS. They knew they had Hardy Weeks and Braun.

 

When Suppan was signed there wasn't much on the market but running out to get a mediocre pitcher at Ben Sheet's salary for those years was a bad move. Pitchers of that talent level become available for much less, just ask the Cardinals and their pick up sticks version of a staff.

 

Melvin wanted Nix from Texas so Cruz had to be included or vice versa but then Nix was barely used and then dumped by Milwaukee who then went looking for a LH hitting outfielder for the bench.

 

The Gwynn for Gerut looked like a decent move but could come back to bite them if the team is looking for a CF next year if Cam is gone and Gerut is dumped similarly to Nix. Melvin has to have some say with Macha about playing time to at least see if Gerut has any value or the team will be forced to pay a lot for Cam or seek a stop gap CFer until Cain proves he's ready.

 

The dearth of pitching in the system is handcuffing the team but there doesn't seem to be any urgency over the past few years to really address it beyond stop gap solutions which tend to cost more money than their worth. The team has hitters and knows that ML pitching is hard to come by so one criticism should have been trying to get some talented minor leaguers a few years ago that would be on the cusp of or in the ML now. Sure its hindsight but the team knew its weaknesses and strengths. ML pitching talent is always expnesive and making mistakes on mediocre ML pitchers is really expensive on multi year deals.

 

A team needs difference makers not just all average guys. Difference makers are what put a team over the top and right now the Brewers staff has about 3/4's of one in Gallardo. He may well be one someday but at this point being as young as he is and still trying to get strong enough to pitch 200 innings in a year he isn't there yet. Stetter's a good LOOGY+ but those guys are a dime a dozen, Hoffman is still very good but I dont' think he is a lockdown closer anymore.

[sgtcluels]

There is a lot of good will for DM around the Brewer fan base because we made it into the playoffs. I'll remember our birth for a long long time, it's special to me, but when trying to evaluate players/managers/coaches we need to try to separate our good/bad will from discussion and try to keep it as objective as possible.

 

DM has done some great moves, but I personally think his magic is done. I've grown tired of watching the waiver wire for anyone who remotely had a connection with Texas, soon as you see a Waiver you know they'll be a Brewer. That and now it appears to be a former aging Cardinal.

 

I'm not sure how to create a metric for GMs, but to me, DM is stuck in the idea that we are a larger market then we are. The Suppan FA acquisition was grossly over paid for, yes the market was very high, but that doesn't mean we have to participate in it. The question is, who has the higher % of win share for the management? Was it Jack Z and his draft/scouting, or is it DM for trades/FA Acquisition? To me, it seems since most of our stars are home grown, it's hard for me to give the props to DM for it.

[cwolf2012]

If we don't resign Cam for next year, Gerut damn well better be on the team. He is a lot better than he's been hitting in his short tenure in Milwaukee.

[Never Outhustled]

I think Melvin is a good GM, but for some reason he just doesn't win. In the cycle of things, this years club should be dominant. Its hurt us that Melvin has repeatedly given out contract extensions to players who had no business getting them, leaving us stuck with there poor production instead of just moving on to better options. Melvin just doesn't seem to understand pitching.

[zzzmanwitz]

but for some reason he just doesn't win.

 

Did I imagine going to my first brewer playoff game ever? I thought that was a few months ago... it must have been a dream.

[logan82]

Nobody thinks Attanasio may have had a hand in the Hall contract? Hall had a great year in Attanasio's first year as owner.

 

I think DM has been ok with the free agents he has signed, with the exception of Suppan. Cameron was a great signing in my opinion. Just compare his contract and performance to what Hunter got in the same offseason.

[dlk9s]

but for some reason he just doesn't win.

 

Did I imagine going to my first brewer playoff game ever? I thought that was a few months ago... it must have been a dream.

Doug Melvin put you under a hypnotic spell.

[pitchleague]

correct me if I'm wrong, but I am pretty sure that Scott Kazmir was not drafted by the Rays but rather was picked up in a (stupid) trade with the Mets for Victor Zambrano.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think Melvin is a good GM, but for some reason he just doesn't win

 

Considering this is the second really terrible team he took over and took to the playoffs I think that is more than a little over stated.

 

Melvin took over a horrible Rangers organization then proceeded to get the Rangers to the postseason three times - the only times the franchise has done so in its 48-year history.

Now he took an equally horrible Brewers team to it's first playoff since 82 and has it in the playoff hunt once again.

when judging a GM I think you have to look at how well he did under the circumstances he is working under. I think the Cubs GM did a horrible job of building that team yet they won the division the last two years. Melvin has done just what he said he could do here. He has a team that has been in contention for a playoff spot for a three years now and looking forward should be so several years to come. any team in contention for the post seaosn is in contention for a WS title which is all we can ask for.

As far as making mistakes and handing out some bad contracts and making/not making trades I think any GM who is aggressive will do that.

I am not one who thinks GM's should trade their players only when they have the highest value because that means you are trading them when they can help you the most. Nor do I advocate trading when their value is low because the relative value in return probably will give you less than the player could if he plays better than his current low value would get. Though sometimes change of scenery changes are good. I think trades should be done when a player is no longer in the long term plans regardless of their current value. Hardy should be traded this off season because he is no longer in the long term plans and will bring more in return than his short term production would. Hart should not because he is.

To clarify I am defining long term as more than a year.

[sgtcluels]

correct me if I'm wrong, but I am pretty sure that Scott Kazmir was not drafted by the Rays but rather was picked up in a (stupid) trade with the Mets for Victor Zambrano.

Correct.

 

And BUC, are we in the hunt because we have a well built team, or is it because the division is painfully bad where 4 teams are with in 2 games of first?

[RightFieldCoder]

It is also hard to judge without hindsight when a player's peak is high or low. It now looks like Hall's high was in 06, but he was being bounced around in the lineup and between positions. It was possible he would become a better hitter (or at least flatline) for several years if he was put into a single lineup spot and position in the field. Using this logic, DM should have traded Braun and Prince after they had those great 07 seasons.

[MJLiverock]

Robin both Prince and Braun were expected to do have great seasons because they have been great players at every level of baseball. Bill Hall came out of nowhere and put up better numbers than he was ever expected to and much better than he ever had. I don't think anyone should be shocked that he fell back to earth just as I would be surprised if Braun suddenly started hitting .210 with no power for a couple seasons.

[cwolf2012]

"Using this logic, DM should have traded Braun and Prince after they had those great 07 seasons. "

 

There's a large difference between Braun/Fielder and Hall. Hall was a .600 OPS player in the minors, and had shown no indicators that he would be a great player before that. Braun and Fielder both tore up the minors, and had clearly shown that they were legitimate hitters.

[DougJones43]

Hall was a .600 OPS player in the minors, and had shown no indicators that he would be a great player before that...

 

Well, Hall also posted a .837 OPS in 500+ plate appearances in 2005 -- so the 2006 monster season wasn't exactly out of nowhere. I've never really faulted Melvin for the deal he gave Hall. At the time, it really did seem like a smart move. I do, however, fault him for continuing to let Hall's contract dictate infield roster moves (see: Branyan, Russell) when Hall has been brutal for 3 seasons now.

[joepepsi]

It's a sound financial strategy for a small/medium market GM to tie up his best young players long term. I don't think I was around here when Hall signed his contract, but I'd be curious to know the reaction at the time. Everyone here championed Braun's lengthy contract after only season of major league experience. Strike me down for even mentioning it, but it's possible he develops chronic back issues or some such similar thing that makes him a mediocre player halfway through the term. Will that be Melvin's fault too?

 

I never fully bought the Bando regime spin about Hall being a True Talent. On the other hand, he had 3 seasons in his early-mid 20's when he showed marked improvement each year in every aspect of his game. He was heading to arbitration as a starting ss who'd just posted an .899 OPS with 35 home runs. Not quite Hanley Ramirez territory, but close. Melvin saved money over what Hall would have cost through arbitration in 2007 and 2008. Of course going forward it's a terrible deal. But amortized as $6 million a year over 4 years is not that bad of a deal given Hall's two seasons leading up to the contract.

[davego]

Contenders in 07, Playoffs in 08 and still in the mix in 09...

[zzzmanwitz]

I don't think I was around here when Hall signed his contract, but I'd be curious to know the reaction at the time.

 

This was the earliest Bill Hall opinion thread I could find. http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=9614?page=1