Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Riske was a good signing at the time. I said that then and I still agree with it. He and the Brewers ran into bad luck.

Is it really smart for a small market team to spend so much money on middle relievers like Riske and Hawkins. One of Melvin's biggest issues is that he spends way too much money on the bullpen. Sure Riske might have pitched ok if he was healthy but we still shouldnt be spending good money on middle relievers. Add that to paying Hoffman 8 mil per season and the absolute waste of 10 million on Gagne and you can see a pattern on overpaying for relievers.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

This past winter the pitching strapped Washington Nationals non-tendered 25 year old Scott Olsen following an injury plagued 2009 where he posted a 6.03 ERA, then went out an re-signed him for around $1 million plus incentives.

 

Also this past winter, the pitching strapped Brewers tendered and ultimately gave a raise to $4.215 million to 30 year old Dave Bush following an injury plagued year where he posted a 6.38 ERA.

 

I think you have to look at where the teams were in terms of their overall goals. The Brewers needed to put together a competitive team where the Nats are just looking to move from bottom feeder status. If they non tendered Oslen and he moved on not big deal in the big. They weren't expected to win this season. If the Brewers non tendered Bush and he moved on we would have to have gone out and got another pitcher or suffer through more Suppan in the rotation while trying to compete for a playoff spot.

 

 

Is it really smart for a small market team to spend so much money on middle relievers like Riske and Hawkins. One of Melvin's biggest issues is that he spends way too much money on the bullpen. Sure Riske might have pitched ok if he was healthy but we still shouldnt be spending good money on middle relievers. Add that to paying Hoffman 8 mil per season and the absolute waste of 10 million on Gagne and you can see a pattern on overpaying for relievers.

 

Since it was the weakness he could address I would rather he spend it there than pocket it. If you have a weak area fix it. The only one of those deals that hamper the team long term was the safest one he signed for a reasonable price. Riske was the lowest risk of the group. It just so happened the odds didn't play out for us. The rest were short term deals. I don't really have a problem with high risk high reward deals if they are short term gambles.

[Beast Light]

Wow, one bad game and suddenly we are turning on the only pitcher who has been pretty consistent to this point. I would take one really bad game out of 4 from every pitcher if they pitched like Bush has in the rest of the games. I can understand not being happy about the rotation but I think Bush falls into the "not a problem" category.

 

You make it sound as if yesterday was unusual for Bush. And he gave up 3 runs to the Cards in less than 6, junked the Cubs and then got hit pretty hard by the Pirates, followed by yesterday. About the only thing different about yesterday was that he bent over rather than doing his trademark squat when guys were beating him like Joe Pesci in Casino. How many times have we seen the Dave Bush squat?

 

If there was a word that could probably get a high rate of agreement on to describe him, inconsistent is the word. Nobody is turning on Dave Bush because of one bad game. And yesterday was awful.

I agree 100%. Dave Bush has had an ERA over 5.00 in 2 of the past 3 seasons, last year it was over 6.00. Ironically enough, his ERA over the past 3 seasons is higher than Jeff Suppan's (5.06 compared to 4.92 according to my calculations).

 

Now I understand the frustration with Suppan as he is both horrible and horribly overpaid but why does Dave Bush continue to get a free pass from so many people? Is it because he only makes $5MM?

 

This team has a good starting pitcher in Gallardo, a good to decent starting pitcher in Wolf and a whole lot of nothing in the rotation past that. If we want a team that can flirt with .500, this works. If we want a team that can have a shot to win a pennant, this absolutely will not work.

 

I would also like to add that if your minor league system is not capable of produing a starting pitcher that can maintain an ERA of under 4.5 at least once every two years, it is failing. Since Melvin has been in town, Gallardo is the only viable starting pitcher that the farm system has produced. To me, this trend is becoming unacceptable.

 

[Baldkin]

Because for a full seasons worth of starts, between him getting jerked around by Ned Yost and getting hit in his pitching arm by a line drive he put up an ERA of under 4.00.

 

May 27, 2008 to Sep 27, 2008 (22 games) W-L:8-5 IP: 138.1 ERA: 3.38 WHIP: 1.03, this doesn't include the only playoff win for a Milwaukee team in 25 years.

Apr 7, 2009 to May 30, 2009 (11 games) W-L:3-1 IP: 63.2 ERA: 4.38 WHIP: 1.19

-----

 

So, maybe to you, Dave Bush is the epitome of all things that are evil, but I see a guy with #2 starter potential, who, when he is the #4 guy in your rotation is well above average for that spot.

[Beast Light]

Because for a full seasons worth of starts, between him getting jerked around by Ned Yost and getting hit in his pitching arm by a line drive he put up an ERA of under 4.00.

 

May 27, 2008 to Sep 27, 2008 (22 games) W-L:8-5 IP: 138.1 ERA: 3.38 WHIP: 1.03, this doesn't include the only playoff win for a Milwaukee team in 25 years.

Apr 7, 2009 to May 30, 2009 (11 games) W-L:3-1 IP: 63.2 ERA: 4.38 WHIP: 1.19

-----

 

So, maybe to you, Dave Bush is the epitome of all things that are evil, but I see a guy with #2 starter potential, who, when he is the #4 guy in your rotation is well above average for that spot.

So when he pitches well for stretches he gets credit, as he should. When he pitches poorly, it is either due to injury or being jerked around? I'm sorry but it seems as if people have been saying he has the making of a #2 pitcher for the past 4 years now. The fact is that he is now 30 and the notion of him becoming a #2 pitcher seems far from every coming to fruition. Again, his ERA over the past 3 seasons is over 5.

 

So who in this rotation needs to be ugraded then? Davis has historically been better than Bush and Narveson is just a #5, so we really shouldn't expect much from him. Since Bush is not one of the problems, I guess our rotation is all set then.

At some point people need to realize that this staff is not cutting it and upgrades are needed. We need a better 3rd and 4th starter. We also need to get in the habit of using the 5th spot in the rotation to break young talent into the league although since we haven't produced any, that really hasn't been an issue.

 

[Baldkin]

The fact is, 3 of our starters have pitched well thus far, 2 have been terrible, and the bullpen has been a train wreck (the one thing, heading into this season I would've said I was most confident in, between SP, BP, and the offense).

Go look at what other teams have for #4 starters.

 

Come on. Let's go see: (3 yr 07-09 ERA)

Cubs: Carlos Silva (5.44)

Astros: Bud Norris (4.53 -- 55 IP)

Reds: Homer Bailey (5.45 -- 195 IP)

Pirates: Charlie Morton (6.03 - 185 IP)

 

How about the playoff favorites:

Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa (4.96)

Phillies: Jamie Moyer (4.54)

 

You're greatly overrating your expectations of the #4 spot in the rotation, let alone what value durability (as we witnessed last year when the entire staff got hurt at the same time) has for a team.

Once again, I'll say, Dave Bush making $5M isn't the problem, it's the other two guys making $22M combined who've pitched nearly twice as bad that are.

[Beast Light]

The fact is, 3 of our starters have pitched well thus far, 2 have been terrible, and the bullpen has been a train wreck (the one thing, heading into this season I would've said I was most confident in, between SP, BP, and the offense).

Go look at what other teams have for #4 starters.

 

Come on. Let's go see: (3 yr 07-09 ERA)

Cubs: Carlos Silva (5.44)

Astros: Bud Norris (4.53 -- 55 IP)

Reds: Homer Bailey (5.45 -- 195 IP)

Pirates: Charlie Morton (6.03 - 185 IP)

 

How about the playoff favorites:

Rockies: Jorge De La Rosa (4.96)

Phillies: Jamie Moyer (4.54)

 

You're greatly overrating your expectations of the #4 spot in the rotation, let alone what value durability (as we witnessed last year when the entire staff got hurt at the same time) has for a team.

Once again, I'll say, Dave Bush making $5M isn't the problem, it's the other two guys making $22M combined who've pitched nearly twice as bad that are.

So are you content with this year's starting rotation? Do you think it has the looks of a playoff rotation? If not, who should be upgraded?

 

The problem is that we have Gallardo (#1-2), Wolf (#2-3), Davis (#4), Bush (#5) and no one else that realistically belongs in a big league rotation. We can nitpick all we want but the fact of the matter is that our starting rotation is very weak and the numbers reflect that. Upgrades are required and you start with the weakest links.

 

I'm sorry but taking one of the worst starting rotations in the history of baseball and adding Wolf and Davis does not spell great improvement to me. Again though, this all goes back to Melvin's lack of an ability to develop good pitching.

 

[razzzorsharp]

Riske was a good signing at the time. I said that then and I still agree with it. He and the Brewers ran into bad luck.

Is it really smart for a small market team to spend so much money on middle relievers like Riske and Hawkins. One of Melvin's biggest issues is that he spends way too much money on the bullpen. Sure Riske might have pitched ok if he was healthy but we still shouldnt be spending good money on middle relievers. Add that to paying Hoffman 8 mil per season and the absolute waste of 10 million on Gagne and you can see a pattern on overpaying for relievers.

To be fair, if Riske works out, I think he is the closer. I always got the sense that he was going to replace Gagne the following year if everything went ok.

[Invader3K]

To be fair, if Riske works out, I think he is the closer. I always got the sense that he was going to replace Gagne the following year if everything went ok.

Or if Torres hadn't retired out of the blue after having a pretty nice season.

[adambr2]

It's not "one of the worst rotations in the history of baseball." Come ON. That's a major exaggeration. It's better than last years, which yes was one of the lesser ones in franchise history.

 

Gallardo, Wolf, and Davis are yes probably all a bit below average as #1/#2/#3's, respectively. Bush is an average #4 when healthy. Let's not make a ton out of yesterday, as bad as it was.

 

We still don't know what we're going to get for our #5. Narveson could be anywhere from a solid #4 to a weak #5. Parra could be anywhere from a solid #2 to solely a reliever.

 

Add it all up and it's probably a bit below average right now overall, with the potential to be decently above average.

 

In 2001, our best ERA in the rotation was 4.76, and our "ace" was Jamey Wright, with an 11-12 record, 4.90 ERA, and 1.53 WHIP. If you want to call THAT rotation one of the worst in baseball history, I'm with ya.

[RockCoCougars]

All that I have to say is that Ben Sheets would look nice in a Brewers uniform now. I don't want to see any sabermetrics saying he's been 'lucky' to this point either. On another note, someone mentioned David Riske as a closer. The only thing David Riske may be closing now is on a mansion bought with the salary that he's stealing from the Brewers. Outside of Doug Jones and Trevor Hoffman, most closers can break 90 mph at least, not the 87 that Riske maxes out on.

[razzzorsharp]

All that I have to say is that Ben Sheets would look nice in a Brewers uniform now. I don't want to see any sabermetrics saying he's been 'lucky' to this point either. On another note, someone mentioned David Riske as a closer. The only thing David Riske may be closing now is on a mansion bought with the salary that he's stealing from the Brewers. Outside of Doug Jones and Trevor Hoffman, most closers can break 90 mph at least, not the 87 that Riske maxes out on.

Then there is no real point in going into a discussion about it. Also, as long as they are effective, anyone could be a closer and if you look Riske was effective for a number of years prior to becoming a Brewer.

[Beast Light]

It's not "one of the worst rotations in the history of baseball." Come ON. That's a major exaggeration. It's better than last years, which yes was one of the lesser ones in franchise history.

 

In 2001, our best ERA in the rotation was 4.76, and our "ace" was Jamey Wright, with an 11-12 record, 4.90 ERA, and 1.53 WHIP. If you want to call THAT rotation one of the worst in baseball history, I'm with ya.

I was referring to last year's starting pitching (Pitcher/ERA)

 

Gallardo: 3.73

Looper: 5.22

Suppan: 5.29

Parra: 6.36

Bush: 6.38

 

Also, that 2001 staff had a better ERA than the 2009 version of the Brewers. That is how bad our pitching was last year.

[logan82]

I would also like to add that if your minor league system is not capable of produing a starting pitcher that can maintain an ERA of under 4.5 at least once every two years, it is failing.

 

Almost no team does that. A guy with an ERA that low is league average or better. We have done a poor job of producing starters but I think your expectations are to high.

 

The rotation would have improved without adding Wolf or Davis simply because Bush and Parra are not as bad as their results from last year. Bush got hit by a line drive and was never the same. I doubt Parra outs up an ERA that high again unless he gets hurt.

[Postseason2006]

We could also throw in the fact that the Brewers have played the worst hitting team in the majors this year 4 times. I am too lazy to look up the numbers right now but our ERA would really be inflated without the Pirate games.

[zzzmanwitz]

We could also throw in the fact that the Brewers have played the worst hitting team in the majors this year 4 times. I am too lazy to look up the numbers right now but our ERA would really be inflated without the Pirate games.

 

NL Runs scored ranks

Colorado - 6th

Chicago - 7th

Washington - 8th

St. Louis - 12th

Pittsburgh - 15th

 

So we haven't played the worst offenses in the league either. Our schedule has been pretty average at this point.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Melvin currently has almost $30 million in the bullpen either not

pitching or posting an ERA above 7.00. Add in the Hall contract, and

that's approximately $40 million of a payroll that sits between $86 and

$90 million. Doug Melvin's moves are making him look really really bad... Just saying...

[Postseason2006]

30 million in the bullpen. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[MJLiverock]

We could also throw in the fact that the Brewers have played the worst hitting team in the majors this year 4 times. I am too lazy to look up the numbers right now but our ERA would really be inflated without the Pirate games.

 

NL Runs scored ranks

Colorado - 6th

Chicago - 7th

Washington - 8th

St. Louis - 12th

Pittsburgh - 15th

 

So we haven't played the worst offenses in the league either. Our schedule has been pretty average at this point.

Are those this year's ranks or last year's? If it is this year it would stand to reason that all of these teams have inflated their offense (except for Pittsburgh) by feasting on bad Brewer pitching, epecially the Cubs who have 6 games vs. the Brewers.

 

 

[zzzmanwitz]

They are this year's ranks. Its not worth it to look at last year's ranks. Teams change so much from year to year, it doesn't make much sense to compare them.

[TooLiveBrew]

Because it is Melvin's job and he has been on it for about 8 years now.

If it's Melvin's job, and you're not willing to provide alternatives, then leave it as Melvin's job. If you want to complain, find some alternatives. It really doesn't take much homework.

[owbc]

The 2001 team wasn't that bad. They stayed in contention until the sweep suits incident at the end of June.

[Beast Light]

Because it is Melvin's job and he has been on it for about 8 years now.

If it's Melvin's job, and you're not willing to provide alternatives, then leave it as Melvin's job. If you want to complain, find some alternatives. It really doesn't take much homework.

With all due respect, I do not think this is how the real world works. In the workplace, people are judged based on results. The bottom line is that after 8 years and a payroll that has increased annually, the results are not there. To be honest, I don't care who plays on this team. I want to watch a winner.

 

If we want to be a monday morning quarterback and second-guess specific moves, all we have to do is re-read this entire thread (Suppan, Hall, Gagne, Cruz, maybe Hoffman) ..all the blunders are called out but again, that is not that point. The results are the point and the results are all that matters.

 

 

 

 

 

[BrewCrewRising]

Melvin currently has almost $30 million in the bullpen either not

pitching or posting an ERA above 7.00. Add in the Hall contract, and

that's approximately $40 million of a payroll that sits between $86 and

$90 million. Doug Melvin's moves are making him look really really bad... Just saying...

Are you counting the fact that Suppan is in the bullpen? That seems to be a separate issue, and I think the way you phrase that is misleading. It's not like Melvin went out and sought that $30M for the bullpen and that's what we got. I think Attanasio was a driving force behind that stupid contract. If that was DM, then that's a knock against him but Suppan didn't go to Melvin's house for dinner and get wooed.

 

Riske is about $4.5M of that. Nobody (or close to nobody) on this board or anywhere in the media thought that was that bad of a signing. It didn't work out. Injuries to pitchers happen, and in truth, that's one of the reasons Melvin is a bit shy to sign big deals to pitchers. That he didn't inherit a great farm system worth of pitchers, and that he can't afford to spend the big dollars on free agent pitchers isn't his fault. Show me a GM who consistently goes out and signs cheap to reasonable FA bullpen pitching talent. There might be some, but there aren't many.

 

If I'm going to rail on his construction of the pitching staff it's going to be that he's uncreative in his trades, and is too wary of trading for pitching talent (long term). That he sticks with garbage too long (Yost and something tells me Macha) is another knock against him.

[rluzinski]

$80 mil salary and Melvin hasn't put up a perennially contending team? Unbelievable.

 

Look, Melvin makes plenty of moves I don't like. Some I hate. But there are enough TERRIBLE GM's that find employment in the majors that I can't advocate dumping Melvin without knowing what the alternatives are.