Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[RockCoCougars]

The Sexson trade pretty much made Melvin bulletproof for a while. He cemented that by pulling guys like Pods, Davis, and Kolb from the scrap heep. More recently, I'm racking my brain for any shrewd moves that he's made outside of the McGahee claim, and the Sabathia deal, but that was kind of a no-brainer at the time, although if Brantley and LaPorta ever do anything, that may turn into a debatable wash as well. The Lee and Davis trades were brutal as were the signings of Suppan, Riske and Hall. If Wolf is bad this season and Hardy makes the Gomez deal look bad, Doug could be in a little bit of trouble. That said, I have a difficult time criticizing Melvin after enduring a few seasons of Dean Taylor.

[derflotr]

I'd call Shouse shrewd

[Weeks4MVP]

The guy is a genius at picking people everyone else has given up in. However, you can count the number of solid trades and free agent acquisitions on one hand....and don't even get me started with the bad deals. I agree with many others than Melvin did a wonderful job turning this team from an embarrassment to a contender, I just don't think he has what it takes to take this team over the top.

[Ennder]

The Carlos Lee trade to Texas was awful imho. We didn't need Cordero or Mench. We needed pitching prospects. That team wasn't going to the playoffs in '06 or '07

 

You are way overvaluing Carlos Lee here, he was not bringing back any good pitching prospect for 1/3 year of service. The only problem with this deal was that we gave up Cruz in it, Cordero for Lee was a win for us. Lee falls into that good but not star level player range and those guys don't bring back big prospects for partial seasons. Also I question whether we needed pitching prospects then, this big hole in our pitching depth didn't appear until 2008. In 2007 we had a rotation of Suppan, Bush, Sheets, Capuano, Vargas and Villanueva with Parra and Gallardo knocking on the doorstep as well and it looked like we had some other young pitching that might pan out.

 

Pretty much the same thing with the Doug Davis deal, we gave up basically no real talent with no upside and we got back what ended up being no talent but at least had some upside, if that is the biggest strike against Melvin he is going to look good. People still fail to look at the fact that Estrada was hitting before his injury and Vargas was pitching well before his with a 4.30 ERA and peripherals that supported it going into August when he suffered through back problems. This deal had a chance to be a win for him, it just wasn't because guys got hurt.

 

The Suppan deal has been his biggest mistake by far and I'm one of those that believe Mark A. had something to do with it. The Hall deal was one I didn't like but it shouldn't have been as bad as it turned out either, there was just no way to know he would completely fall apart instead of sliding back to mediocrity. Looper was probably more pitching through an injury than anything, the expectations should have been a high 4 ERA pitcher and the pay was about right, maybe a tad high but at that point we were a bit desperate, but that does agree with your fact that paying for older mediocre guys can be pretty bad. The whole Gagne thing was just weird all around.

 

I think the biggest problem we have faced is missing on too many pitchers in the system. When you look around the league over the past 10 years it is hard to find a team that has brought up fewer successful starters than the Brewers have. Buying mediocre free agent pitching isn't a choice Melvin made because he wanted to, it is because we have completely failed to develop our own pitching which is absolutely essential for everyone but the big market teams.

[Baldkin]

The Carlos Lee trade to Texas was awful imho. We didn't need Cordero or Mench. We needed pitching prospects. That team wasn't going to the playoffs in '06 or '07.

They finished 1 game, one Aramis Ramirez home run from winning the division in 2007. Cordero was a huge part of that. Mench was what he was, a lefty mashing corner OFer, the perfect guy to split time with Gross & Jenkins. Sadly, we had a dolt of a manager who gave him 200 ABs against RHP that year. You can give the kid the best toys, but he might still try to flush them down the toilet.

[jackalope02ca]

If every move Melvin made turned to Gold he wouldn't be a GM. The fact is he's been the best GM this team has had in a generation now. Does everything he try work? No but name a GM in baseball that's been more consistent with a mediocre payroll? It's not like we are the Yankees and Red Sox and can throw whatever it takes at the wall to sign a player. I don't think there is a better GM in baseball at pulling players off the scrap heap that everyone else has given up on. He's hired well, look around the big leagues and you see quite a few ex-Brewer management types in prominent roles in other organzations as they got hired away and promoted. That's as good a sign of a great organization as on field results sometimes. The only real flaw that I see is the pitcher development. In my mind Melvin has failed to get the right people in place to develop pitchers. No one is perfect. But if we replace him I think it would be a downgrade.

[Flood Pants]

Melvin seems to pull at least one shrewd move per season. I looked at every roster during Melvin's tenure to put together this list. These are players acquired off of waivers, minor league free agency, or in a trade for low value. Of course, jury's still out on this season, but let's look at this year and work backwards

 

This year: Edmonds (maybe, we'll see)

2009: McGehee, Narveson

2008 (playoff year): Torres, Coffey, Kapler, Branyan, DiFeice, Butler (hated this move at the time, but it's looking like a winner)

2007: Dillon, Balfour (flipped for McClung)

2006: Shouse

2005: Helling, Cirillo, Turnbow (regardless of how his career ended, he was a huge part of that team)

2004: Grieve (perhaps the weakest of the bunch, but provided some offense)

2003: Clark, Podsednik, Davis, Kolb, Villanueva (from the low-profile Wayne Franklin trade), Enruque Cruz (valuable because he was flipped for Brian Shouse)

 

 

Check out that playoff year. It wasn't all big prospects and CC. I think this list puts into perspective just how valuable Melvin is to this club. These are all players acquired for the baseball equivalent of free who made big contributions to their rosters. And I'm sure I even missed some.

[endaround]

You missed Branyan in 2004.

[Flood Pants]

You missed Branyan in 2004.

You're right. Though Branyan of 2004 <<< Branyan of 2008

[PeaveyFury]

If every move Melvin made turned to Gold he wouldn't be a GM.

 

Or at least he wouldn't be the GM of the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Because we follow the Brewers, we are all aware of the moves that turn out well. But virtually every team makes moves each year that turn out well. So to point out that Melvin is special in this regard requires a little more research and comparison. For instance, I think the Cardinals signing Ryan Ludwick in December of 2006 for virtually minimum salary trumps a lot of moves Melvin made. There's also plenty of moves that didn't work out.

 

The 2 best moves he's made in this regard were Podsednik and McGehee, but those were 6 years apart so might fall into the "blind squirrel finding acorns" category.

 

Picking up Turnbow was a good move, but it has to be balanced out with the fact that because Melvin gave him a multi-year deal, it took longer to pull the plug on the guy who was awful from the midway point of 2006 until he was released early in 2008. Giving Hall a multi-year deal was also a major blunder.

[zzzmanwitz]

But virtually every team makes moves each year that turn out well.

 

And every team makes moves each year that turn out poorly.

[MJLiverock]

So in the end we are back to the results on the field are what matters. Not projections, not under or over performers, or excuses but wins and losses. For some being around .500 every years is good enough, for others reaching the playoffs more often than once a decade or more is expected. Just speaking for me, being a perennial middle of the pack team isn't good enough, I'd take a few last place finnishes if it also meant a few 1st place finishes.

[NievesNoNO]

I would agree that every team has a few under that radar moves that turn out well each year. I'm not saying that Melvin doesn't deserve to be critisized and critiqued, but the 'new girl isn't always so hot once you get to know her' (sorry, I just hate the grass is always greener one). I guess I think you have to be somewhat realistic of what to expect given the situation. Melvin has done a great job getting this franchise back to respectablility and I'm willing to give him a few more years to get us over the top. The process of building a good baseball franchise is a long process, not the same as a football or basketball team which can be done in a few years.

 

I think the next year or two will define Melvin's time here. He's kind of at a crossroads now with the first wave of supposed/actual talent. Those players are(going to get) more expensive and decisions will have to be made on them. Hardy was the first domino, which IMO, was a solid move. Will he be willing to take one or two steps back, (remaining competitive) to take 3-4 steps forward? If we're not poised to make a run at the deadline this year I'd like to see a fire sale of sorts. Fielder, Hart (if someone will take him), Edmonds, maybe Weeks, any of the bullpen, up for grabs. Let's really see what we might have with Gamel and LuCroy or Salome, maybe Lawrie and some of our young pitchers that might be ready. What I don't want to see is a situation where we bring in pricey free agents each year to just try and be competitive only to finish around .500 ala the Baltimore Orioles of a few years back or the Astros.

 

Right now, IMO, there are basically two models for small/mid market teams to follow, the Twins or Marlins. The Marlins complete dump and reload has won a couple championships. The Twins are always playing to make the play-offs it seems, but have not invested in any pricey free agents and basically refuse to gut their system for a one year shot at winning it. Personally, I prefer the Twins philosophy. I'd rather see meaningful games each year all year and make a few playoff runs. Eventually I think they'll get to the World Series if they keep their current plan. I'm not sure about Tampa yet. We'll see what they do the next couple years with regard to their impending FAs and arbitration guys. I can't argue with what they've accomplished, but I'm interested to see what direction they take now. They're kind of in the same boat as the Brewers except much with a much better team, but it's also taken them basically 10 years to build that franchise from ground up.

[JohnBriggs12]

This past winter the pitching strapped Washington Nationals non-tendered 25 year old Scott Olsen following an injury plagued 2009 where he posted a 6.03 ERA, then went out an re-signed him for around $1 million plus incentives.

 

Also this past winter, the pitching strapped Brewers tendered and ultimately gave a raise to $4.215 million to 30 year old Dave Bush following an injury plagued year where he posted a 6.38 ERA.

 

Both pitched today.

 

Olsen vs. hot hitting Dodgers: 7 IP, 6 hits, 0 runs, 8 K's.

 

Bush vs. Cubs: 3 2/3 IP, 10 hits, 9 Runs, 7 ER, 4HR, 2 BB. 2 K.

 

 

Now of course one game doesn't prove that Olsen is measurably better than Bush. Olsen had struggled in a couple of his earlier starts and Bush had a good one against a AAA level Pirate lineup. But I do believe the Nats showed a much shrewder grasp of how to manage payroll in this instance than Melvin did with Bush. Even if the Brewers were convinced Bush's troubles last year were entirely injury related, they still could have likely parlayed his poor 09 numbers into a much lower contract than he eventually signed and thus if he were to run into continued problems this year, it would be much easier to jettison him.

 

Partially because the Nats saved money on Olsen, they could afford to overpay (according to most experts) to sign a 38 year old future hall of fame catcher while the Brewers overpaid for a 39 year old catcher who's never been more than a journeyman. Did I mention that as I post this, Pudge is hitting .411 to Zaun's .157?

 

 

[Beast Light]

How many years in a row are we going to continue trotting Dave Bush out to the mound? Simply, the man needs to be replaced in rotation. I have been saying this for years but everyone continues to point towards his peripherals. At what point does not getting the job done become grounds for an upgrade?

 

Also, it is not fair to respond with "well WHO is out there to replace him with?". I am not a GM and getting paid the big bucks to figure that out. The Brewers pitching is atrocious and in Melvin's entire tenure, he has only managed to add one long-term talent to the rotation in Yovani Gallardo. You could make the case for Doug Davis in his first go-round with the team but he was then traded for Johnny "First Pitch" Estrada.

[Baldkin]

Also, it is not fair to respond with "well WHO is out there to replace him with?"

Why not? If you're going to play "I know better than Melvin" you can't come without ammunition.

At least Briggs brought something. Although, once again, Dave Bush isn't the problem. Suppan and Davis have been so far.

[TooLiveBrew]

Olsen had struggled in a couple of his earlier starts and Bush had a good one against a AAA level Pirate lineup.

And a good one against the Cubs, and a so-so one against the Cardinals in his first start of the season. You're getting too caught up in small sample stats with Bush/Olsen & Pudge/Zaun.

Did I mention that as I post this' date=' Pudge is hitting .411 to Zaun's .157?[/quote']

Zaun has outhit Pudge in each of the past three seasons, while Zaun was in the toughest division in baseball. Pudge didn't suddenly improve at age 38.

 

I have been saying this for years but everyone continues to point towards his peripherals. At what point does not getting the job done become grounds for an upgrade?

He was better than league average in 2008, and looked well on his way to a second consecutive season of the sort before getting nailed on the pitching elbow by a line drive in '09. At what point does BF.net stop overreacting to the small sample?

[logan82]

Wow, one bad game and suddenly we are turning on the only pitcher who has been pretty consistent to this point. I would take one really bad game out of 4 from every pitcher if they pitched like Bush has in the rest of the games. I can understand not being happy about the rotation but I think Bush falls into the "not a problem" category.

[Invader3K]

Wow, one bad game and suddenly we are turning on the only pitcher who has been pretty consistent to this point. I would take one really bad game out of 4 from every pitcher if they pitched like Bush has in the rest of the games. I can understand not being happy about the rotation but I think Bush falls into the "not a problem" category.

Yeah, I agree. It seems like after every bad pitching start, we're all ready to crucify whoever happened to have the latest turn in the rotation, regardless of past results. This team has a lot of problems right now, but Dave Bush is not really one of them.

[Beast Light]

Also, it is not fair to respond with "well WHO is out there to replace him with?"

Why not? If you're going to play "I know better than Melvin" you can't come without ammunition.

At least Briggs brought something. Although, once again, Dave Bush isn't the problem. Suppan and Davis have been so far.

Because it is Melvin's job and he has been on it for about 8 years now. Our pitching situation is not something that developed overnight. I understand that there weren't a whole lot of FA pitchers available this offseason but our starting pitching never should have reached the state it was in last year.

 

Again, in 8 years, he has managed to obtain just one good starting pitcher that fit into the long term mix (Gallardo). There is an issue here.

[Postseason2006]

Amazingly, the Jeff Suppan experiment is in year 4 and we still continually have to watch that horrific signing still haunt the Brewers.

[pete]

Wow, one bad game and suddenly we are turning on the only pitcher who has been pretty consistent to this point. I would take one really bad game out of 4 from every pitcher if they pitched like Bush has in the rest of the games. I can understand not being happy about the rotation but I think Bush falls into the "not a problem" category.

 

You make it sound as if yesterday was unusual for Bush. And he gave up 3 runs to the Cards in less than 6, junked the Cubs and then got hit pretty hard by the Pirates, followed by yesterday. About the only thing different about yesterday was that he bent over rather than doing his trademark squat when guys were beating him like Joe Pesci in Casino. How many times have we seen the Dave Bush squat?

 

If there was a word that could probably get a high rate of agreement on to describe him, inconsistent is the word. Nobody is turning on Dave Bush because of one bad game. And yesterday was awful.

[adambr2]

Why do I want Melvin fired?

 

Well, let me start with the $25M+ almost 1/3rd of the dead weight on our team -- Suppan, Hall, Riske.

 

Add in him refusing to even LISTEN to trade offers for Prince this offseason, a critical error for a small market team. If he doesn't get a fair offer, fine. But covering your ears, you're not giving your team the best chance to improve.

 

Trading low on Hardy, trading low on Hall, trading low on Davis, not trading high on Hart....if Melvin were a stockbroker, he'd be awful. He won't let go of his valuable trading chips until they lose significant value. Sure, there are some exceptions -- Podsednik and Overbay. But those are few and far between.

 

Frankly, I think some are really not looking at the big picture when they count the CC trade as a big W for Melvin and the 1 playoff win it got us. It was a rental that did get us into the playoffs, but weakened the farm system and left us in dire pitching trouble in '09 and beyond (by not going for a trade with someone who was going to be remaining in town).

 

Sure, he had some good pickups, every team does. Kapler, Edmonds, McGehee, Turnbow, were all nice pickups, but let's not pretend that every team doesn't run into a handful of those over the years. Obviously Nelson Cruz was the one who got away. I don't expect him to get every one right, but that one sure does hurt, especially when the trade wasn't necessary, and a bit confusing that they attempted to trade Lee for proven MLB players rather than young talent that could be helping us now.

 

I think Jack Z did most of Melvin's dirty work through the draft, and if the best we can say about Melvin is that he was able to sign some of these guys to long term deals like Braun and Gallardo (which he couldn't unless there was a mutual interest anyway), then that's not saying a lot. I used to be a big Melvin fan. But now that I look back at his overall body of work as a GM, I'm not particularly impressed. For us to be able to put together a $90M payroll and yet struggle to reach .500 tells me there's been a lot of money spent foolishly.

[razzzorsharp]

Riske was a good signing at the time. I said that then and I still agree with it. He and the Brewers ran into bad luck.