Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[bobskube]

Like you mentioned Yo & Parra have some upside, along with Narveson. For relievers, Coffey, Hawkins, Villy, Stetter (as a LOOGY), & even Hoffman are solid. Really your beef is with Davis & Soup, which apparently comprises the entire pitching staff.

Parra has a brain the size of a koala bear. I really don't think he will amount to anything...but I think this team is still pretty good. It is soooo early.

 

I, for one, think Brewers will be in contention on Sept 1st if Hart and Suppan's appearances are kept to a minimum.

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

His brain the size of a koala bear? Surely it couldn't be that he was overhyped and is an average at best pitcher

[Fatter than Joey]

Parra has a brain the size of a koala bear.

 

Just to be clear, is Parra's brain the size of a Koala Bear, or a Koala Bear's brain?

[DougJones43]

Like you mentioned Yo & Parra have some upside, along with Narveson.

2 out of those 3 pitchers aren't even in the rotation though. Their upside is negated right now as miscast LOOGYs. And soon, if they continue to be used the way they are, neither will be stretched out enough to be a viable option for the starting rotation.

 

Blame this situation on Macha if you will, but Melvin must be okay with it. In fact, I'd say it's likely that Melvin was part of the decision making process that landed Suppan back in the rotation -- which is the main reason 2 of our pitchers with the most potential are being used sporadically out of the pen.

[bobskube]

Parra has a brain the size of a koala bear.

 

Just to be clear, is Parra's brain the size of a Koala Bear, or a Koala Bear's brain?

Thanks Joey. Yes, Parra's brain is the size of a Koala Bear's brain.

 

A koala brain is generally the size of a walnut.

[HiAndTight]

His brain the size of a koala bear? Surely it couldn't be that he was overhyped and is an average at best pitcher

No. Not really. He was a dominating minor league pitcher, and a left hander with frontline stuff.

 

In his professional baseball career he's been dominating for his entire minor league career, came up and was pretty damn good in his first full year in the big league and then had ONE bad year.

 

Surely it could be that he is a power lefty who's got very good stuff and actually struggled for a year in the big leagues.

 

 

 

 

 

[HiAndTight]

Like you mentioned Yo & Parra have some upside, along with Narveson. For relievers, Coffey, Hawkins, Villy, Stetter (as a LOOGY), & even Hoffman are solid. Really your beef is with Davis & Soup, which apparently comprises the entire pitching staff.

Parra has a brain the size of a koala bear. I really don't think he will amount to anything...but I think this team is still pretty good. It is soooo early.

 

I, for one, think Brewers will be in contention on Sept 1st if Hart and Suppan's appearances are kept to a minimum.

 

I'm curious, exactly what has Manny Parra done to show you he's not a very smart human being?

Not throwing a strike does not make someone stupid. Often times it just makes them a late bloomer.

I recall how stupid DLR was called once upon a time.

 

As for Hart, I don't see this team being in contention with Edmonds and Gerut playing full time or getting the majority of the starts. This team needs Corey Hart to play well in my mind to have any chance.

 

I must confess I always find it a bit irratating when we call players stupid simply because they've yet to fulfill their potential.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks Joey. Yes, Parra's brain is the size of a Koala Bear's brain.

 

A koala brain is generally the size of a walnut.

This seems completely unnecessary

[greeg35]

I am not in favor of firing Melvin. I think he's done an above average job overall. I do hope that he starts relying on our farm system to plug holes and provide roster depth rather than signing expensive veterans that may or may not be crappy. That's one of the advantages of having a deep system and we have not taken advantage of it.

[Ennder]

MilwaukeeCounsell]His brain the size of a koala bear? Surely it couldn't be that he was overhyped and is an average at best pitcher

I'd say it is much more likely that the multiple injuries he has had have gotten in the way of him reaching the potential that he was hyped.

 

As for the comments about him being mentally weak, those really have no basis and are something people latched onto last year for some reason. They have no real proof backing it up and they aren't going to change their minds so it isn't really worth arguing over but I can never help myself I guess. If Parra has one problem it seems to be an inability to pitch with a runner on 1B. He was actually better last year with RISP than with bases empty, doesn't sound like a mentally weak guy to me. He was pretty terrible every time there was a runner on 1B in a SB situation though. He is a guy who just has problems throwing strikes, most likely because of the injuries.

[bobskube]

Thanks Joey. Yes, Parra's brain is the size of a Koala Bear's brain.

 

A koala brain is generally the size of a walnut.

This seems completely unnecessary

It is an IGT so I was just trying to make a strong message about Parra. I probably should have referred to his baseball IQ instead of painting with such a broad brush. He may be an intelligent guy off the field. I really don't know.

 

If he was any good though, it is hard to imagine why he cannot crack this rotation. I see his stuff so I know he could succeed. But from what everyone has told me, he just has some sort of mental block. I wish him the best but I am not nearly as optimistic as the vast majority of people on BrewerFan about him.

[bobskube]

Oops, excuse me, this is not an IGT. It is about Melvin.

 

Melvin has earned his right to stay in my opinion at this point. I think he has done a pretty good job and if he would have had more help in the minors pitching-wise, this team would be in an excellent spot.

[Thurston Fluff]

MilwaukeeCounsell]

I am waiting for Macha to get fired.

So we can replace him with another manager that fans will complain about? There are few managers that fans are overly pleased with. And their overall impact on the game gets blown out of proportion sometimes.

Two posts in and you're already my favorite.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I was a much bigger fan of Yost than I am of Macha but still think this team would go as far as it's talent will take it regardless of who is managing it. If the manager does a few things like make their players acountable work ethic wise and not blow out their pitchers by overuse how they manage a game is largely irrelevant to the overall record.

I think sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side. Thinking so usually gets you another manager, sometimes worse, somethimes better, but rarely closer to solving the real problem.

[Flood Pants]

If the manager does a few things like make their players acountable work ethic wise and not blow out their pitchers by overuse how they manage a game is largely irrelevant to the overall record.

I think sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side. Thinking so usually gets you another manager, sometimes worse, somethimes better, but rarely closer to solving the real problem.

Yes and no... If you're talking about a team like the Yankees who can put a great player at every position, then this is true. But Milwaukee relies a lot on role-players, guys who perform extremely well in certain situations but not extremely well all the time. On the current roster, Jim Edmonds, Craig Counsell, Mitch Stetter, Jody Gerut are really good examples of such players. They're cheap because they aren't capable of playing every day, but can put up allstar-esque splits against opposite handed pitchers and hitters. Read the stat lines right and put these players in the right match-ups, and you'll get a huge return on their relatively small salaries. Gerut or Counsell against a good right-handed reliever could mean getting the run that wins the game. Corey Hart against that same reliever likely means getting a ground ball double play. Melvin has always done a great job of filling his rosters with such players, but has failed to employ managers who are willing to use them properly. So I would argue that both Yost and Macha have cost this team games that they could have otherwise won.

 

Melvin is great at finding talent, but not great at finding managers. This makes him a good GM, but not a great one.

[Thurston Fluff]

Some very good points Flood Pants. I agree to an extent that mid level teams need managers to make better choices overall than large market teams do. I disagree that those moves make all that much difference. Most managers, including Yost and Macha do play their guys to match ups to a large extent unless there is some sort of reason not to. Playing Hart against a tough righty might seem silly unless Hart is in one of his hot modes. Then it really doesn't matter. In substitutions it's really a crap shoot. Is Counsell a better option cold off the bench to replace Hart against a righty? Statistically yes but on a given day maybe not. How good was his BP? Who's swinging the bat with confidence at the moment? Is the a minor lingering injury or illness?

While all those things seem trivial it is as big a deal to the outcome of a particular instance as long term numbers IMHO. So, yes, Counsell should be in for the most part against a righty but at times Hart may give you as good or better a chance.

[BrewCrewForever]

I still wonder why they fired Frank Kremblas from AAA, he seemed to be the best choice to become manager after Yost was fired. Was there ever any real explanation whey Frank was canned?

[Crew2323]

If he [Parra] was any good though, it is hard to imagine why he cannot crack this rotation. I see his stuff so I know he could succeed. But from what everyone has told me, he just has some sort of mental block. I wish him the best but I am not nearly as optimistic as the vast majority of people on BrewerFan about him.

I'll surmise two reasons why he cannot crack the rotation: Ken Macha & Jeff Suppan's salary. After the handling of Gamel last season I have very little reason to believe that Macha will play youngsters unless his hand is forced: see Escobar, Alcides. In addition, the Brewers are going to try to get as much out of their investment into Suppan as they possibly can, even if he isn't the best pitcher out of the two, or three if you include Narveson.

 

That is why I fear the day when Braddock called up. It's not that I don't want to see him on the team, I simply have no confidence that Macha will use him and use him properly.

 

As far as Melvin is concerned, I have no problem with his signing of Wolf this off-season. But I don't understand why he would spend 7 million on Hawkins when the bullpen wasn't the problem last year. Sure the bullpen fell apart late in the season, but it was only because the starting pitching couldn't go deep into games, thus you have a taxed bullpen. I would have rather seen him spend more money on another starting pitcher, ala Sheets, and let a young guy like Braddock or Axford etc., work in the bullpen. It'd likely cost the same as what we're paying right now, but you'd likely get even better production than we will out of Davis + Hawkins.

[logan82]

Why focus on Hawkins and his relatively small contract. Hoffman is getting the same money only over one year instead of 2. No I don't think Hoffman is done or bad, I just think they jumped on that contract to fast and overpaid.

[Postseason2006]

Regardless of how bad the pitching staff has been, two days vs the East bottom feeders and we have 3 runs scored. Just pathetic. Why does Melvin get zero blame?

[Flood Pants]

Why focus on Hawkins and his relatively small contract. Hoffman is getting the same money only over one year instead of 2. No I don't think Hoffman is done or bad, I just think they jumped on that contract to fast and overpaid.

I would agree, but they risked losing him otherwise. San Diego only let him go because their owner was going through a divorce and needed to cut payroll. With that whole thing settled, I imagine they feared San Diego would want him back and he would want to go back. They made sure that didn't happen.

[TheCrew07]

This team isn't nearly as bad as they've played over the last week. However I do hope that maybe some of the concepts that a small core of us having been arguing against are becoming more clear, or perhaps easier to understand. Things like signing relievers to big money contracts, signing players in their mid 30s or older, and generally why trying to build a rotation through Free Agency doesn't work.

 

If the players that are signed or acquired are averagish and aging, then that's all the team can be... those players are not going to experience an upswing in their careers, it fact it's much more plausible that their production will decline over the course of the contract. How many teams in baseball history have out performed their rotation significantly? While it could happen this year, it seems highly unlikely to me that players so far past their prime will perform in a best case scenario. 1 of those players in the rotation or bullpen might, but to get all 4 or 5, the odds just aren't high.

 

I've said it many times,but I want to say it again, I think Melvin did a fantastic job helping to turn around what had been a putrid franchise. I just do not believe that he can continue to operate like he has and get this team reach that next level. I thought this team was slightly above average, 82-83 wins... but it could easily end up below .500 as well, in which case this would have been consecutive years that the team spent near 90 mil to finish under .500... 5 years ago who would have guessed that Melvin would have ever had that much money to spend?

 

Cameron 8.4 WAR, 15 Million

Sabathia 7.5 WAR, 6 Million

Hall .7 WAR, 24 Million

Riske -.6 WAR, 13 Million

Suppan 1.5 WAR, 44 Million (includes the buyout for 2011)

Gagne -1.1 WAR, 10 Million

Hoffman 1.5 WAR, 6 Million (only including 2009)

Looper -.9 WAR, 5.5 Million (includes the buyout for 2010)

Kendell 2.7 WAR, 9.25 Million (I was shocked Kendell had positive WAR, the positional adjustment saved him as he had negative value at the plate)

 

The totals for all FA acquisitions.

12.2 total WAR for $132.75 Million so Melvin paid $10.88 Million per Win.

 

The totals for FA acquisitions without Cameron whom many were willing to part with.

3.8.1 total WAR for $117.75 Million so Melvin paid $30.97 Million per Win

 

The totals for all players acquired

19.7 WAR for $129.5 Million which is Melvin's best $7.03 Million per Win.

 

The league average has never been as high as 7.03 mil per win, it was over 5 at it's peak and this year I believe I read it was something like 3.86? It should be pretty clear that Melvin has done horribly overall in Free Agency. Who would have guessed that outside of Cameron, Kendell was the best FA signing that Melvin had made?

 

I've never tried to take away Sabathia's contribution and/or how much that playoff appearance meant to many Brewers fans, including the overwhelming majority of fans on this site. My point has always been that acquiring Sabathia cost the Brewers an unquantifiable number of future wins, and led to spending more money for very little return trying to plug the gaping hole left in the rotation when Sheets and Sabathia left. From where I'm sitting the best way to build a rotation is to aggressively trade for young pitching with little or no MLB experience. TB did exactly that and vaulted to the top of the toughest division in baseball, which is why I've referenced that organization so often. We just couldn't sit on all our hitters and then settle for Bush type high floor/low ceiling starting pitchers or relievers when we did make a trade. Simply put there are so few opportunities to acquire meaningful talent that Melvin couldn't afford to settle for quantity MLB piece deals once Milwaukee turned the corner towards respectability. In addition Melvin certainly hasn't gone out of his way to acquire significant talent for the rotation, the one recent move he made was only ever going to be a temporary solution, and it simply hasn't been enough.

 

I don't believe my opinions on Melvin's tenure have brought unwarranted or undeserved criticism. On the contrary I know how much time and research I've put in to form what I believe are extremely well thought out and deep analysis of what's he done to this point, and what the team needs to do to be able to compete with the big boys year in and year out. I'm not, nor have I ever been interested in a window that would close with Fielder/Weeks departure from the team. Even if this was to be the 1 window, then why wouldn't Doug work harder to acquire better starting pitching? Is there even an organizational plan or philosophy regarding team building? Or is he just flying by the seat of his pants trying to max out the team potential year to year?

[trwi7]

I would agree, but they risked losing him otherwise. San Diego only let him go because their owner was going through a divorce and needed to cut payroll. With that whole thing settled, I imagine they feared San Diego would want him back and he would want to go back. They made sure that didn't happen.

Who cares if San Diego wanted him back? Offer him arbitration and if he leaves, you get picks. Worst that happens is he accepts arbitration and you're paying him about what you are now.

 

 

[The Truth]

Is there even an organizational plan or philosophy regarding team building? Or is he just flying by the seat of his pants trying to max out the team potential year to year?

It seems he is just flying by the seat of his pants and trying to fill holes. I often wonder how much of this is due to Mark A meddling in things. The Suppan signing certainly seemed like a Mark A thing. A "go out and get us a free agent pitcher". The Brewers seem to be run right now like a money manager would run them: maximize the potential to break even financially (at least) by keeping the fans excited. Thus the relectance to sell high on Hardy. Maximizing the potential to break even, working so hard just to achieve a winning record (which also focuses on fan reaction and attendance) is much much different than trying to build a playoff team

 

There seems to be an aversion to trading away players for prospects because the fans will say "same old Brewers" and that will affect attendance. This type of short-term thinking really leads to mediocrity and a .500 record

 

The Carlos Lee trade to Texas was awful imho. We didn't need Cordero or Mench. We needed pitching prospects. That team wasn't going to the playoffs in '06 or '07. Was that trade focused on increasing attendance as fans got excited about the Brewers achieving a winning record? I think it was, and it didn't help the Brewers in the long run, at all

[bobskube]

Cameron 8.4 WAR, 15 Million

Sabathia 7.5 WAR, 6 Million

Hall .7 WAR, 24 Million

Riske -.6 WAR, 13 Million

Suppan 1.5 WAR, 44 Million (includes the buyout for 2011)

Gagne -1.1 WAR, 10 Million

Hoffman 1.5 WAR, 6 Million (only including 2009)

Looper -.9 WAR, 5.5 Million (includes the buyout for 2010)

Kendell 2.7 WAR, 9.25 Million (I was shocked Kendell had positive WAR, the positional adjustment saved him as he had negative value at the plate)

I hate WAR. How bout a little PEACE? Perfect Equation-Another Crappy Endpoint for the lovely WAR stat. I respectfully don't think highly of it. I think it is the one Saber stat that we argue about most on this site for reasons that have been quoted many times. Don't want to start that war.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm racking my brain for any shrewd moves that he's made outside of the McGahee claim, and the Sabathia deal

 

Todd Coffey's another one