Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[MJLiverock]

Exactly trwi7, I see no reason to spend the extra $5MM+ for Looper when the team may well get the same 5+ ERA production from those young cheap guys. Looper may well be worth $5MM to some team but not a team stuck with 3 or 4 bottom of the rotation guys already. The Brewer will be much better off putting that money toward a much better pitcher or sitting on it in the bank because I don't think the incremental gain on Looper is worth it. I don't mind paying up for talented players but paying up for mediocrity just doesn't work on a limited budget.

 

Paying $5MM for prodution that can be matched by $1MM guys burns me more than paying $12MM for an $8MM guy because that $8MM guy is still pretty good and not likely to be matched by call ups and replacement level guys. The team needs that $5MM to help pay for a good player so we don't hear they can't trade for so and so because his salary is too high.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Melvin's on WSSP right now, said they will be pursuing starting pitching but also indicated there's a possibility the same group will be back.

 

Sounded generally supportive of (or at least willing to make excuses for) Macha... players are brand new to him, he's never managed NL-style before, not his fault Rickie got injured, etc.

 

Said he won't just give JJ away if he decides to trade him. Noted that Escobar/Gamel have options left. Thinks it will be hard to keep both Escobar and Hardy at the ML level and get maximum production from them.

 

Said people are currently scouting JJ; people will call to ask if he's playing that day.

[Invader3K]

He also said there wouldn't be any guaranteed rotation spots going into spring training, which is at least kind of nice to hear. Seemed to kind of hint that someone like Suppan or Looper could be moved to the bullpen.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Is Melvin gonna excuse the fact that Macha is aloof and the players dont like him? The guy has a major personality flaw and a year in the national league wont fix that.

 

You also have to question Melvin if he believes that Macha is the right man to handle young players. The guy just seems spooked at the thought of giving a young player the chance to play. If Melvin brings back this same staff he deserves his fate which will be another lackluster finish next year and a new GM. Dan O'Dowd is a free agent after the season and the owner would be smart to hire him away from Colorado.

[NievesNoNO]

MJLiverock[/b]]Looper may well be worth $5MM to some team but not a team stuck with 3 or 4 bottom of the rotation guys already.

I think that's a good point. I would still pick up the option though. Maybe I'm drinking the BrewCrew cool-aid and thinking they're going to aquire some legit top of the rotation arms. I guess I just don't see Looper's current potential contract option being a hinderance to aquiring better pitching. Maybe the issue of picking up the contract isn't so black and white. Depending on what else is in the works should have a bering on what happens. If it's an option of picking up Sheets for 6-7 mil. for a year or renewing Looper then by all means I'll take Sheets. I don't think there's a lot of options like that though.

[giffted1]

With some of our prospects ascending through the system, there's no need to pay $5.5M for Looper or any other pitcher as "depth." With Butler, Rivas, Rogers and hopefully Narveson, maybe Capuano as well being in AA or higher at the start of next season, if we need another starter I'd much rather use one of our young guys.

But out of that group Butler is the only one who will be a real addition to our rotational depth next year. Rivas, Rogers, and Capuano still have a way to go, and Narveson was already part of that group this year.

 

Paying $5MM for prodution that can be matched by $1MM guys burns me more than paying $12MM for an $8MM guy because that $8MM guy is still pretty good and not likely to be matched by call ups and replacement level guys. The team needs that $5MM to help pay for a good player so we don't hear they can't trade for so and so because his salary is too high.

But how likely is it that $5mil will be the difference between getting a good player or not? A good pitcher is going to command over $12 mil for multiple years. Heck, just this past off season the awful Oliver Perez got a contract giving him $12 million/year over 3 years. Looper's $5 mil is too insignificant to factor into a decision for a contract of that size.

[MJLiverock]

I'm not saying they will get a good differencing making pitcher for $5MM but that the $5MM can be put towards the $12MM/year a pitcher may cost. The Brewers have a budget to live within and that $5MM may make a difference next year when they are still paying Suppan and Hall.

 

I just don't want to hear the excuse that they didn't want pitcher xyz because they couldn't afford to pay him the $12MM he was due in 2010 because they have Looper and someone like Kendall eating up $7MM to $9MM of payroll. Knowing full well that in 2011 Suppan's $12MM drops off.

It's all about opportunity cost and looking at the alternatives for similar production with lower costs. Wasting money on mediocre players and then not having money to spend on truly above average players is a losing scenario.

 

Think back to the rumors of the Peavy trade or Halladay there was plenty of mention of how could the Brewers afford to take on more big salaries. Well the only way they can is to cut salary elsewhere and I'd start with guys like Looper and Kendall. Neither produces anything above average or irreplaceable and yet take up $9MM of payroll.

[Thurston Fluff]

He has proven time and time again in Texas as well as Milwaukee that he is incapable of putting together a top flight pitching staff.

 

They were one of the top pitching staffs in the league in 08 weren't they?

 

 

You also have to question Melvin if he believes that Macha is the right man to handle young players. The guy just seems spooked at the thought of giving a young player the chance to play.

 

Last year they fired a manager who was very good with young players. Now that they have a taskmaster who prefers veterans people are again unhappy. I think it says more about how impossible it is to makes some people happy than how good the GM is at finding competent managers.

 

Dan O'Dowd is a free agent after the season and the owner would be smart to hire him away from Colorado.

 

That would be the Dan O'Dowd who after this season will have managed to have 3 winning seasons out of 11. The guy who has a career record of 757-849 as of today. The guy who has less than half the post season appearances of Melvin run teams. The guy who acquired pitchers Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton to long-term contracts in an effort to build around them. I guess the grass is always greener…until you have to eat that grass.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it says more about how impossible it is to makes some people happy than how good the GM is at finding competent managers.

 

I actually think it speaks to how impossible it is to find a competent manager. Nearly every guy makes the same mistakes & spouts the same cliches.

[FVBrewerFan]

The more time goes by, the more I'm convinced Jack Z had more to do with the recent "success" of this team than Melvin. Not sure if that's fair or not, but Jack Z hand delivered Melvin a ton of talent. All Melvin's had to do is find a quality arm or two, and he hasn't been able to do it.

[TooLiveBrew]

So once again, it's to Zduriencik's credit that the Brewers have good hitters, and exclusively Melvin's fault there isn't enough good pitching. That seems fair.

 

I guess what I'd ask is for people to be able to provide tangible examples of all the other GMs out there that are successfully flipping their hitting prospects into top pitching prospects and/or top arms. It's really easy to see that the Brewers need pitching, but it's not quite as simple as 'Melvin has failed!' I feel like people are expecting moves from Melvin that just aren't that common or easy to pull off. And it's not that fans shouldn't expect and/or hope for moves like that -- it's that imo the criticism flies far too freely & easily.

 

I just don't think criticizing, without taking the context of the trade market into account, is constructive or fair. The kind of move or moves that people accuse Melvin of failing in so mightily just don't happen very much. That's not an excuse, that's just reality. And once again, I see nothing wrong in expressing frustration that 'move x' hasn't been made... I just think there's far too much criticism without any real context. Where are all these moves Melvin is supposed to be making? Is it really a problem with Melvin, or is it more a problem that any GM has a hard time swinging the kind of deal folks want to see?

[MNBrew]

So once again, it's to Zduriencik's credit that the Brewers have good hitters, and exclusively Melvin's fault there isn't enough good pitching. That seems fair.

 

I guess what I'd ask is for people to be able to provide tangible examples of all the other GMs out there that are successfully flipping their hitting prospects into top pitching prospects and/or top arms. It's really easy to see that the Brewers need pitching, but it's not quite as simple as 'Melvin has failed!' I feel like people are expecting moves from Melvin that just aren't that common or easy to pull off. And it's not that fans shouldn't expect and/or hope for moves like that -- it's that imo the criticism flies far too freely & easily.

 

I just don't think criticizing, without taking the context of the trade market into account, is constructive or fair. The kind of move or moves that people accuse Melvin of failing in so mightily just don't happen very much. That's not an excuse, that's just reality. And once again, I see nothing wrong in expressing frustration that 'move x' hasn't been made... I just think there's far too much criticism without any real context. Where are all these moves Melvin is supposed to be making? Is it really a problem with Melvin, or is it more a problem that any GM has a hard time swinging the kind of deal folks want to see?

Amen, TLB!!!!

 

I don't get how it's all Melvin's fault that the Brewers have no upper-level pitching prospects. Look, Jack Z. drafted lots of good hitting prospects, relatively speaking. But if folks are giving credit that way, apply the same standard: Jack Z. drafted lots of pitchers with poor durability, questionable mechanics/talent/heart, debatable ceilings, etc. That's not Melvin's fault.

 

Melvin has had trouble acquiring much good STARTING pitching. (His track record for the bullpen, overall, has been quite good.) And, since most of the good hitters we have are home grown, you could also say he's had trouble acquiring top offensive talent, too, that didn't have questions about character (Lopez), age/trending downward (Counsell, Cameron, Kendall), actual ceiling (McGehee), etc.

 

I don't care how folks "stat" it out, there just an unbelievable amount of the success rate that comes from fortunate timing and luck and the ability to sustain an East Coast payroll -- beyond all the skill & diligence that every team tries to start with. Certain things are fairly easy to control or predict. So much, however, is not.

 

Every GM blunders periodically. Not every team has the good fortune of a massive bankroll or the luck of a bad blunder coinciding with a wave of great prospects.

[Ennder]

Always keep in mind we had 2 major injuries and one drug rehab guy that should have all been in AAA this season. We drafted pitching it just completely did not work out for this small window of time. Melvin certainly should have traded for some depth before this season but if you go back to say 2006 our depth looked great, it is really the 2007/2008 time frame that has stunk.

[Baldkin]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-are-the-stars-being-acquired-starting-pitching/

 

Long story short, the top 30, by xFIP:

 

Javier Vazquez - trade

Tim Lincecum - draft

Dan Haren - trade

Roy Halladay - draft

Zack Greinke - draft

Jon Lester - draft

Josh Johnson - draft

Justin Verlander - draft

Ricky Nolasco - trade

Adam Wainwright - draft

Chris Carpenter - free agent

Felix Hernandez - amateur free agent

Josh Beckett - trade

Joel Pineiro - trade

Ubaldo Jimenez - amateur free agent

Cole Hamels - draft

Wandy Rodriguez - amateur free agent

Yovani Gallardo - drafted

Gavin Floyd - trade

Brett Anderson - trade

Jorge de la Rosa - trade

Jason Hammel - trade

CC Sabathia - free agent

Ryan Dempster - free agent

Roy Oswalt - draft

Aaron Harang - trade

Max Scherzer - draft

Chad Billingsley - draft

Joe Blanton - trade

Clayton Kershaw - draft

That works out to 11 pitchers acquired via trade, 13 in the draft, 3 as amateur free agents (read: intentional in this case), and 3 as actual free agents.

[lcbj68c]

Days like today are days that I remember why I'd like to have DM replaced as the GM of the Brewers. Mediocre replacements to fill real big problems (ie, Doug Davis, Greg Zaun). The alternatives have all been discussed to exhaustion. It's just when I look up and see guys that are other teams #5's starting as our #3 and a career backup catcher expected to go around 120 games this year, the frustration level sets right in again. Oh yeah, Jeff Suppan is going to start the third game of this series.

[Ennder]

Days like today are days that I remember why I'd like to have DM replaced as the GM of the Brewers. Mediocre replacements to fill real big problems (ie, Doug Davis, Greg Zaun). The alternatives have all been discussed to exhaustion. It's just when I look up and see guys that are other teams #5's starting as our #3 and a career backup catcher expected to go around 120 games this year, the frustration level sets right in again. Oh yeah, Jeff Suppan is going to start the third game of this series.

Almost no team in baseball would have Davis as the #5. Zaun was a starting C for 4 years before last year and he only became a backup because of a young up and coming guy in Weiters. Signing a long term solution at C would be silly given our depth at the position in the minors, C is not a big part of the problem with the team.

 

The fact the team hasn't really played well yet and has faced good teams to start the year and still is sitting around .500 is why I'd like to keep Melvin.

[Invader3K]

lcbj68c, that just seems really reactionary to me. The team clearly isn't quite "clicking" on all cylinders yet, but when they do, they will rack up a winning streak. I can feel it. We could win the next two games against the Cubs and suddenly everyone is going to be saying we're playoff bound.

 

I know it's incredibly cliche, but "It's a marathon, not a sprint."

[lcbj68c]

Meh. Not really reactionary, because I've been fearful all off-season about the mediocre acquistions. I want DM replaced because I don't want 5 years from now to be hampered by Suppan-esque contracts that he may give out this coming off-season. Atleast Davis and Zaun are mutual options for next season. I think it's more than just not clicking on all cylinders. There's nothing a pitcher/catcher combo can really do to click on all cylinders. You either have it, or you don't. And most of the time, this staff doesn't.

[Ennder]

You either have it, or you don't. And most of the time, this staff doesn't.

 

It has been 7 games...

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, but clearly that tells us everything we need to know

[TheCrew07]

We'll see how the season plays out. While I agree that it's too early to cast dispersions on the rotation, nor will Zaun go 0 for the season, many people legitimately questioned the moves made this off season and if the net effect would be positive for 2010. The only move where we got younger or more athletic was in CF, and it will be a huge step down in Offensive production. I for one was terribly disheartened by the last 2 off seasons, and my feelings on the matter aren't likely to change.

 

At the very least I'd hope that people would be willing to have a more open mindset about how to manage the roster rather than trying to solve problems through FA with established players. Making timely trades for key pieces would have made all the difference last season, and maybe this season as well, and I'm not talking about deadline deals, I'm not into short term solutions. I still believe Melvin needed to be more aggressive, I think true weakness of the MLB team continues to be ignored, and I still think trading Hardy for a bat at his lowest possible value is laughable. I'm not rooting for Gomez to fail, quite the opposite, it's just that DM has burned through a ton of expendable assets making deals in season and out of season without addressing the 1 true weakness of the organization, top of the rotation talent. We can win in the post season with average position players around a couple of starts, but we aren't going to win anything with an average rotation.

 

Lcbj6c's take isn't necessarily reactionary nor is it revisionist, he's shared many of the same concerns that I have and he's repeatedly voiced them over the last year, I took it as more of an "I told you so" type rant directed at Melvin, not anyone here on the site.

 

We need a GM who's going to look to set market trends, who will aggressively think outside the box with trades and acquisitions, not someone who's going to stick to a set formula because that's what he's always done, that's what baseball teams have traditionally done, or follow the swings in market trends like a sheep. We're the smallest market in baseball, we can't afford to operate like other teams regardless of how much money we have to spend. I remember people talking about "If we could only spend X we'd be so much better off" for years. We're way past all those numbers now, the team has already stretched every revenue stream as far as it can go, and yet we ended up with a below .500 season for a 90 million dollar payroll. It's not about spending money, it's about value on the dollar, and the only move Melvin has made that carried any significant value was signing a 4 WAR player in Cameron for far below market value.

 

Even with Sabathia and Cameron I wonder how much combined WAR all of Melvin's moves have generated vs the money that was spent. I'm guessing it would be positive over all, but the amount of money spent for so few wins will surprise people.

 

In the end I just can't get past the feeling that the moves DM made and didn't make cost the team multiple playoff appearances, I hope I'm wrong but there is a very real possibility that 2008 will be only the playoff appearance out of this first wave of talent. It would be a shame, but Melvin hasn't made a significant trade for a top of the rotation starter since JDLR, he's only acquired high floor/low ceiling type players since through both trades and FA. We aren't going to compete for the division having the 4th best rotation, it's just not realistic, it doesn't matter what the offense is or isn't if our pitching doesn't match up.

[Oldcity]

I don't think this should be considered reactionary. Many people didn't like the Davis signing, Gomez trade, etc. when they happened. I for one don't think this is a playoff team. They're trying to sell us that the moves they made will make them contend, but all they did is create new holes by filling old ones.

[DougJones43]

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1097/cruzu.jpg

 

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http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/8977/mench.jpg

[trwi7]

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1097/cruzu.jpg

 

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http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/8977/mench.jpg

This made me laugh and then cry and then drink.

 

[Postseason2006]

http://a.espncdn.com/i/headshots/mlb/players/65/5906.jpg

Jorge De La Rosa #29 SP

2010 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
0.00	1-0	9	0.29

2010 FANTASY STATS
% OWN	WK	AVG DRAFT
100.0%	0.0%	166.5

_______________________ Tony Graffanino He is currently not on any major league roster to start the 2010 season.