Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[TheCrew07]

I think he's done alright, but he's not overly creative as a problem solver. Under his watch the team has done a great job mining nuggets out of nowhere and spinning them for more value. The Sexson trade is still his single best move and continues to reap benefits for the organization. He recognized talent in Z, overhauled some glaring problems within the organization, and generally has done a good job getting the correct people in the correct jobs. I like that he's into sabermetric evaluation of MLB players, I like that prefers a good mix of analysis and scouting when it comes to prospects.

 

Some things that annoy me about him...

 

1. His obsession with previous talent, like the retreads from the Texas organization we keep getting. I wonder if some day he'll be recycling Brewer talent through his next organization?

 

2. In my opinion he spends too much money on the bullpen

 

3. Bad contracts to players like Suppan, Hall, Clark, and Helms.

 

4. Knowing he didn't have enough pitching in the system and not aggressively pursuing it. People around here will say there weren't any deals available because nothing was done... we don't know that's factually correct, and why did we have to wait until this last off-season to make a deal? Last year TB had Kazmir, Garza, and Jackson in the rotation, and none of those players were developed by TB. Melvin prefers to make safe moves like the Sabathia trade, where he's trading surplus talent the team won't miss for the best proven talent MLB that's available. It's pretty much the same thing he did in both Lee deals as well. He's acquired pitching talent, but it's been pitching talent with a limited ceiling in Cappy, Bush, Vargas... players that can be effective MLB pitchers, but don't have the talent to be top of the rotation starters. The one player he did acquire with that kind of stuff in JDLR always had command issues and just recently turned his career around.

 

5. I thought Yost was a decent choice as a manager for team trying to build something, but if Macha proves to be reluctant to play prospects then he's hired the wrong manager. We're going to have to break in a prospect or two every season to remain competitive, I'm concerned with what Macha has done this year in regard to Yo and Gamel. I don't have a warm and fuzzy in regards Macha effectively being able to help develop young talent, and it appears he's more likely to Dusty Baker young arms than Yost was.

 

Overall I view him as an effective but conservative GM, and I like what he's done on the whole, I just wish he'd be more aggressive signing the correct players to long-term deals at the opportune moments in addition to being on "johnny on the spot" when deals for young pitchers are available. Sieze the opportunities when they present themselves... I like him signing Braun, I hope to see Yo locked up "health permitting" prior to next season and Gamel locked up prior to 2011.

[zzzmanwitz]

I think almost everyone on the board agrees that signing Suppan was a mistake. That is ONE move. Can we expect Melvin to make the right move every time? No. I will say this though... Suppan for the most part has been what he was brought here for, to be a stable presence in the rotation.

 

In 2007, he made $6.3 Million, and had a value of $10.9.

In 2008, he made 8.3, and had a value of -$0.4.

So far in 2009, he has had a -$1.3 value.

 

Yes, Suppan has been bad, but given that bad decision, he's done very well.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I have a hard time advocating the firing of Doug Melvin. Building a consistantly competitive team in Milwaukee is not easy. We are 2 games out of first right now, we are not the Nationals. We have two bad contacts. I will give him a pass on Riske. I think he works for an owner who is less patient than his public personna indicates. I think that the a lot of people get frustrated by the way Cubs spend $ every off-season and we don't. We can't do that. We are going to hit and miss by looking for second-tier hidden value. We have done much better in recent years than Billy Beane's A's. I think that our organizational weakness has been drafting/developing pitching. We haven't had the pitching prospects that the Twins have had and haven't been able to make a Santana trade. Because of this we have had to gamble on Suppan, Looper, Gagne, etc...

[DougJones43]

Oh yeah, and he let Russell Branyan go...TWICE.

 

Branyan would have the second highest OPS on the team right now. 3TO hit a GW homerun last night as well, his 24th of the year. But, we needed to keep playing time available for Bill Hall for his third straight year of suckitude...

[Invader3K]

Personally I would hate to see us turn into the Cubs. Lots of big contracts for just above average and rapidly aging players. Plus a horrible stadium to boot (I'll admit I've never been to Wrigley, but by all accounts I think I would hate it).

[zzzmanwitz]

Melvin wanted to resign Branyan. Branyan didn't want to stay because he knew he wouldn't be a starter here. There sure was a lot of support for Bill hall back in 2007, the year he signed his contract... http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=9614?page=1

[DougJones43]

Melvin wanted to resign Branyan. Branyan didn't want to stay because he knew he wouldn't be a starter here.

I'm not sure that's true. The story I remember is that Branyan contacted Melvin, Melvin said he wasn't interested but put him in contact with Jack Z.

 

And again, who's fault is it anyway that Melvin chose Hall to start over Branyan entering the season? Most of the excuses I keep hearing lead directly back to DM's doorstep.

[JJHardy7]

3. Bad contracts to players like Suppan, Hall, Clark, and Helms.

 

Again TheCrew07...how are the Clark and Helms contracts bad? Clark signed a two-year $7 million deal and Helms signed a two-year $4.5 million deal. If those are among the top four bad contracts, Melvin is the best GM in baseball. I think we need to get over those 'bad' contracts (along with Turnbow's). Suppan and Hall's deals were/are bad, but what about Riske? Suppan makes what Clark and Helms got in a year or more during his contract...let's get the facts straight.

[Invader3K]

I have a hard time criticizing the Riske signing. No one could have foreseen a devastating injury that has taken him out for basically the whole length of his contract.

[lcbj68c]

think that the a lot of people get frustrated by the way Cubs spend $ every off-season and we don't. We can't do that. We are going to hit and miss by looking for second-tier hidden value. ~~AKA augie

 

That's the problem. It's not about increasing the budget. It's about spending it wisely. Nobody is here whining about the payroll, just how stupidly it's been allocated. If you have needs and fail to purchase for your needs effectively and your family/business suffer as a result, that's poor management in my opinion. When you have the hitting depth you have at AAA, there isn't a need to spend.....

 

Suppan 12.5 Million

Cameron 10M (750,000 buyout)

Hall 6.8M

Hoffman 6M (50,000 for allstar 200,000 for games finished escalator)

Kendall 5M

Looper 4.75M

Riske 4.25 M

 

That's 49.55 million dollars. While the counterparts may have costed a total of 7M?, without figuring on two starting pitchers. One stud, one #3.

 

You can't make free agents come here, but I highly doubt that is the problem. The Brewers have the facilities to recruit them, the money to recruit them (if budgeted correctly), but something else is going on besides..."It's Milwaukee". I believe that something else is management. There are plenty of great arguments as to what Doug Melvin has and has not done correctly. Again, he has done wonderful things for this franchise to getting it to the playoffs. However, it's because of what he fails to do year in and year out in the free agent market and what he does give away in ridiculous contracts to mediocre players is the reason I would like to see the Brewers go in a different direction in getting this team to even the next level.

[zzzmanwitz]

Suppan 12.5 Million (-$1.3)

Cameron 10M (750,000 buyout) ($12.4)

Hall 6.8M ($0.9)

Hoffman 6M (50,000 for allstar 200,000 for games finished escalator) ($4.3)

Kendall 5M ($1.9)

Looper 4.75M (-$1.6)

Riske 4.25 M ($0)

 

The dollar amount in parenthesis are the value based on WAR over the season so far (a little over a half).

 

Cameron and Hoffman has been great values. Suppan and Hall, not so much. Looper hasn't done well, but his performance hasn't hurt us (we win more games that he loses). Kendall is just a hair below his salary. Riske gets a pass for me for an injury.

[JJHardy7]

I have a hard time criticizing the Riske signing. No one could have foreseen a devastating injury that has taken him out for basically the whole length of his contract.

 

Well my point is if you're going to knock some cheap contracts you're better off knocking on deals that were worth a lot more $$$. His stats also indicated he may have been having a 'fluke' year IIRC. Or at least some here were posting that.

[cwolf2012]

Anyone who blames DM for lack of pitching depth in the organization should NOT be someone who is giving all the credit to Jack Z for the hitting depth we do have. A lot of people on this board like to give Jack Z credit for the influx of hitting talent we've had in the last 5 years, but if you do that, then you also have to give Jack Z credit for drafting a lot of high risk pitching prospects that didn't work out.

 

Secondly, Hall's contract, when inked, was not a bad deal. He had two very good seasons with the bat and had shown that he had a lot of versatility in the field as well. While I may not have done it anyway since he was so spectacularly bad in the minors, I can't blame Melvin for locking him up through his arby years for cheaper than he would have been if he continued hitting like he did in 05 and 06.

 

The only truly awful move I can see so far has been Suppan, and the Brewers were desperate for an arm that year. Kendall was pretty bad too, but he'll be gone next year (I hope). He may have given up a bit too much for Linebrink, but we ended up with 2 draft picks and none of the players he traded has panned out at all so far.

[lcbj68c]

I don't understand WAR neccessarily. But you are telling me that money spent on Suppan, Cameron, Hall, Hoffman, Kendall, Looper, Riske is money better spent than their potential replacements (Halladay, Cain, Irribarren, Coffey, Rivera, Vazquez?, Smith)? Not only do we save money, the rotation looks awesome while giving up very little at the plate with longer term solutions.

[TheCrew07]

JJ,

You are hung up on length of contract... and there aren't really facts, just opinions. I actually liked Clark as player, in fact I've said it many times around here, I just wouldn't have paid to keep him around. Gagne was a bad signing, although it was only 1 year, that wasn't money well spent. Riske was another bad signing, one that I didn't care for at the time. Shortening the contract length mitigates the risk, but doesn't mean the money was spent wisely. Risk and value are 2 separate ideas... value wise the signings weren't even horrible until you get to Suppan, Riske, Gagne, and Hall, but those players all had significant warts. If we could have signed Weeks and Hardy to Braun type deals instead of spending the money where we did that would have been money spent more wisely. We'd have greater flexibility roster wise today with our most talented players.

 

For example, having Hardy for more 2 years through 2012 would make Escobar expendable, or greatly increase Hardy's trade value. I would have much rather extended Hardy than Hall... or extended Hardy instead of paying Riske, Turnbow, Helms, etc. I want DM to spend money on the truly talented players. And for the record, I'm not into paying for mediocrity... ever. Spend the money on the true talent, do the best you can with the rest. This team has way too much dead money invested in players that aren't performing.

[joepepsi]

He's an excellent GM who juggles the fan base's need for a competitive team with a limited budget. He is trying to win in the short term with the young core of hitters. Except for Braun and Prince the rest of those young hitters have not progressed as projected 2-3 years ago.

 

Using redundant minor league talent to land CC was remarkable.

 

One can criticize signing Suppan, but they would not have competed for a playoff spot the last two years without him. In '07 he led the team in starts and innings pitched. Last year he faded badly, but he's made 75 starts for the Brewers with roughly league average results. Given the difficulty signing a free agent pitcher last winter, as well as the struggles to replace Bush in the current rotation, you can't assume there was a cheaper, more productive pitcher available for these last 2-1/2 seasons. It's true the Brewers had to overpay somewhat for Suppan, but they also needed to send a message to the fans and other players in MLB they were serious about winning now. Without him we'd be looking at 75 extra starts by Claudio Vargas and Mike Burns types.

[zzzmanwitz]

I want DM to spend money on the truly talented players.

 

ummm, yeah?

 

If this is how we are going to critisize GMs, there isn't one in the league that deserves to keep their job. Every GM has spent money on a bad player.

[chuckiehacks]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is Attanasio's involvement in some of these deals. Personally, I think Mark was driving the bus on the Suppan signing (hosting him for dinner, etc.). and the CC deal. I also think he's pushing for a Halladay deal more than Melvin.

 

You can argue that Attanasio's influence on transactions has been both good (getting CC, firing Yost) and bad (Suppan). In any case, that's not going to change with a new GM. If anything, Attanasio will have more influence since he'll be hiring his own GM.

[lcbj68c]

He's an excellent GM who juggles the fan base's need for a competitive team with a limited budget. ~~ Joe Pepsi

 

I realize the budget is limited when compared to the Yankees...but seriously..calling the budget limited is ridiculous. Budget is not Melvin's problem..it's how he spends his money. The Tampa Rays spend 17 million dollars less than we do (37 million less in 2008 when both teams made the playoffs). They have a DH that gets expensive that we don't even have to buy one of those. They play in the toughest division in baseball in terms of competing payroll (Boston, New York) and yet they spend wisely on pitching outside the organization and let the homegrown talent on the hitting side work their way up....and gasp: 13 games over .500 in the toughest division.

 

Their situation is similiar to the Brewers, except the stadium is crappier, the players facilities therefore crappier, they draw far less fans with no natural rivals to increase a particular series. They were horrible for a long time and started to rise about the same time as Milwaukee. What's the difference? The attention paid to the starting pitching and the deficiencies on the team and not trying to bandaid them. No new scoreboards, no new ribbon boards, no suite makeovers. Just attention paid to the team on the field and filling bad players with good players. It's just sad that the fan base hasn't fully appreciated what a great job their baseball ops people have done. I'm guessing Andrew Friedman would love the 37 million more dollars Doug Melvin got to use and probably would have used it more efficiently.

[JJHardy7]

You are hung up on length of contract... and there aren't really facts, just opinions. I actually liked Clark as player, in fact I've said it many times around here, I just wouldn't have paid to keep him around.

 

I'm not hung up on the length...the total money was pretty small IMO. If we signed guys to those deals now, nobody would care. Because the payroll was low and we gave a guy $3.5 million on average for two years (Clark) and one $2.25 million for two years on average (Helms) doesn't make those terrible deals. The payroll total was terrible. I have a hard time knocking DM for those two deals. It's not like we could've used that money differently and made the playoffs. I just don't see how those deals were 'bad'. Just because it meant they were two of the higher paid players on bad teams doesn't make any difference to me. They were low risk moves in my opinion. The Suppan and Hall deals were very high risk moves. I just can't compare the two.

[cwolf2012]

How do you propose he uses the money that he does have on prospects? That 37 million HAS to go to filling holes because Jack Z was terrible at drafting pitchers, and as such, DM has to spend money on overpaid veteran pitchers.

 

Either way, Tampa Bay is clearly the exception here. Friedman has done a terrific job turning that team around (and it didn't hurt to have a bunch of #1 picks in a row). And they are going to have to spend a lot more money in the next 4 years to keep the people they have together. On top of that, their entire rotation is homegrown, and their bullpen is scrap parts that happened to pan out. How have they spent money outside the organization at all for pitching? Pretty much the entire team is homegrown with a few notable exceptions.

[joepepsi]

Tampa Bay did it with a great homegrown pitching rotation, plus a good trade to get Garza. It took them a long time to develop all that young talent. I think there has been an expectation since the arrival of Hardy, Weeks, Prince, Hart, and Braun, that the Brewers will make a push to win that core intact. Like Tampa Bay trading Delmon Young, I guess you can argue Weeks, Hardy, or Hart should have been traded pre-arbitration for young pitching talent.

[lcbj68c]

How do you propose he uses the money that he does have on prospects? That 37 million HAS to go to filling holes because Jack Z was terrible at drafting pitchers, and as such, DM has to spend money on overpaid veteran pitchers.

 

JZ was terribly at drafting pitching, but the answer is not overpaying for veterans. I think it's foolish to believe that was Melvin's lone option.

 

Either way, Tampa Bay is clearly the exception here. Friedman has done a terrific job turning that team around (and it didn't hurt to have a bunch of #1 picks in a row). And they are going to have to spend a lot more money in the next 4 years to keep the people they have together. On top of that, their entire rotation is homegrown, and their bullpen is scrap parts that happened to pan out. How have they spent money outside the organization at all for pitching? Pretty much the entire team is homegrown with a few notable exceptions.

 

Tampa (No Bay) has been the exception. That was the point..to show that it can be done. Enough with the excuses for the people that want to complain that it can't be done. It can be done..with tons of less money. The entire rotation is not homegrown. The bullpen should be scrap parts that pan out. Why are we paying 8 figures for a bullpen and a closer to pitch 60 innings instead of 200+? If the bullpen doesn't pan out then spend some money mid-season on relief. It's cheaper. If your team is out of the game by the time the bullpen comes around, what's the point? Starting pitching wins you games.

Here's how they've spent money on pitching for guys they no longer controlled or from other teams.

Kazmir drafted in 2002 controlled through 2012 now at same price as Suppan (injured but more talented)

Pervical as a free agent, though I'd argue this was a bad contract. (outside the organization)

Chad Bradford 3M/per (outside the organization)

Dan Wheeler 3M/per (outside the organization)

David Price (inside the organization, but signed very economical 6 years for 8.5 Million (what a great option at #5 starter)

James Shields (4 years/11.5 Million, also inside the organization)

Brian Shouse (outside the organization 1.5M)

Grant Balfour (outside the organization 1.4M)

Jeff Niemann (inside the organization, but again very economical at 5 years/5 million (what a great option at #4 starter)

Isringhausen (outside the organization, very cheap as a closer option though was horrible, but again 750,000..not a big deal)

Cormier (outside the organization 675,000)

Garza (outside the organization, controlled long term)

Sonnastine (inside the organization , controlled long term)

Lets not forget, they spun Edwin Jackson away as well.

So in recapping, it CAN be done and not everything has to be homegrown.

[zzzmanwitz]

Tampa (No Bay)

 

Its the Tampa Bay Rays

 

The Rays have been lucky that their bullpen has panned out. Some "cheap" options work and some don't.

[lcbj68c]

Tampa (No Bay)

 

Its the Tampa Bay Rays

 

The Rays have been lucky that their bullpen has panned out. Some "cheap" options work and some don't.

Somebody referred to the city has being named Tampa Bay, it's not. And I'd argue it's foresight and scouting...not luck. Just a bit of foresight.