Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[The Truth]

I do think Melvin should be fired but I don't think the Brewers window in the Braun era is closed. Especially if they trade Prince for pitching sooner rather than later. And get rid of the contracts of Suppan, Cameron, Kendall over the next few years (i.e. all the overpaid vets) and trade Hart and Hardy

 

You regroup with a nucleus in 2011 of Braun, Gamel, Escobar, Lawrie, Cain, Gallardo, Parra and pitching attained through trades and you take your chances trying to win games by 3-2 or 4-3

[Invader3K]

This is going to be a very important off-season for the Brewers. I'm afraid that if Melvin is still at the helm, he isn't going to make the changes necessary to make this club turn the corner after a disappointing season. I'm afraid he'll be too conservative. The window of opportunity isn't closed yet, but it could be very soon if significant changes do not occur.

 

I'd like to see Mark Attanasio relieve Melvin of his duties and find someone who is going to be more aggressive, and show more of a desire to think outside the box...rather than stay with the players we have now and make only middling improvements to the rotation. I would also like to see Attanasio commit to being equally aggressive, and make a strong push to make the playoffs again within the next couple seasons. This is partly a separate issue, but then again, they are intertwined. It would also determine the fate of Ken Macha, and ultimately, who the next GM will be.

 

Melvin has had a solid tenure as GM...he's been here for 7 years and taken the team from abysmal to respectable. He will easily land on his feet with a different organization. He has even admitted that his strengths lie in rebuilding bottom barrel clubs. The Brewers are no longer bottom barrel. I think it's time for someone new to take the team to the next level, though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin's downfall started after the 2006 season. That season they fell out of the race in large part to injuries to Sheets and Tomo Ohka. As many will recall, they cycled through a series of replacements, none of whom did the job until (ironically given his struggles this year) Villanueva gave them some quality starts late in the year.

 

They (Melvin and Attanasio) incorrectly pinpointed the problem as a durability issue on the major league staff instead of a depth/quality issue in their minor league system. Their solution was to go out and pay a durable but thoroughly average at best pitcher (Suppan). They should have demanded accountability from Jack Z and Reid Nichols for the dearth of pitching talent being produced internally. They even ignored pitching with their first pick in 2007 opting for a redundant Matt LaPorta in a year when as I recall they had no 2nd round pick.

[brewizard]

The Brewers are no longer bottom barrel.

 

The Brewers are no longer that respectable either. The way the pitching looks, and given Macha's total inability to motivate his players, I'd say the Brewers end up the bottom of the barrel again.

 

Unless Suppan and Bush return as monsters...

 

Wait.

 

Jeff Suppan in AAA:

 

3.2 innings pitched, 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 5 BBs, 0 SO, 3 HR, ERA 12.27

 

Here comes ten more years trying to finish .500

[Invader3K]

brewizard, I was speaking more in terms of the overall franchise (attendance, ratings, merchandise sales, general awareness in the state and media, etc), not just the team on the field. It's readily apparent they are playing very poorly right now, but that doesn't mean the overall health of the franchise is bad. The team has made tremendous leaps and bounds in those areas I cited.

 

Also, I feel you are being blindly pessimistic right now...I don't think Jeff Suppan's performance will determine that the team will be sub-.500 for the next ten years. We only have him under contract for one more season (then a buyout, I believe). He can't hurt us after that.

[giffted1]

The Brewers are no longer that respectable either. The way the pitching looks, and given Macha's total inability to motivate his players, I'd say the Brewers end up the bottom of the barrel again.

I'm no Macha fan, but if they players actually need to be motivated to win, the problem is the players.

Unless Suppan and Bush return as monsters...

 

Wait.

 

Jeff Suppan in AAA:

 

3.2 innings pitched, 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 5 BBs, 0 SO, 3 HR, ERA 12.27

So a rough outing in AAA means Suppan's career is pretty much over. Come on.

Here comes ten more years trying to finish .500

You predict 10 years of trying to finish .500, I predict a collection of repetitive pessimistic posts.

[brewizard]

Suppan's rough outing in AAA doesn't mean his career is over. Did I say that? However, it is unlikely he'll give the staff much relief this year or next if/when he returns.

 

Macha seems to have been less effective than Yost. Perhaps if he drank more coffee...

 

I don't see the team -as currently constituted- coming anywhere close to the playoffs before Prince/Braun are gone - ESPECIALLY if Melvin is fired.

 

I'm no Macha fan, but if they players actually need to be motivated to win, the problem is the players.

 

But this is a thread about the management. The problem IS the players - or the lack of certain quality players. That is due to the combined weight of years of upper-management decisions.

 

I predict a collection of repetitive pessimistic posts.

 

You are right again. That's what happens when the team is driven straight off a cliff.

[jeffy]

Macha seems to have been less effective than Yost. Perhaps if he drank more coffee...

Well he has Coffey http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif, what he needs is a CC and a healthy Ben Sheets.

[Tbadder]

I don't think Melvin should be fired. I think he's the best that we can hope to get given we are a small market franchise--what really astute potential GM would want a small market club? More importantly I think the organization as a whole is moving in the right direction, especially concerning pitching, but as some have pointed out it may be too late for the Fielder/Braun team to make a serious run. I have no problem with that. We weren't going to have a long term relationship with Fielder anyways, and we still might with Braun given his proclivities.

Finding a hard hitting lefthanded 1st baseman--I'm not worried about that. Melvin's not perfect; you've got trade when player values are high, but for Milwaukee, I think he's the amswer right now.

[The Truth]

If Doug Melvin understands that the #1 priority in building a World Series contender is pitching, then he has failed, miserably. If Doug Melvin does not fully understand that the #1 priority in building a World Series contender is pitching, then he has no business being a MLB GM. Either way he should be fired, thanked whole-heartedly for building the Brewers from the worst team in baseball to a .500 team, but still fired. Give someone else a chance to take the Brewers to the next level.

[giffted1]

Suppan's rough outing in AAA doesn't mean his career is over. Did I say that? However, it is unlikely he'll give the staff much relief this year or next if/when he returns.

So one start in AAA is enough to make you doubt that Suppan will continue to be an adequate back of the rotation starter? (Yes, I know Suppan's numbers look horrible, but I think its fair to assume he was hurting his last couple of starts).

I don't see the team -as currently constituted- coming anywhere close to the playoffs before Prince/Braun are gone

I don't think anyone does, including Melvin. If Doug is content with the current pitching staff he deserves to be fired, but I don't think there's any doubt he's going to try and get pitching this off season.

[Ennder]

I don't think anyone does, including Melvin. If Doug is content with the current pitching staff he deserves to be fired, but I don't think there's any doubt he's going to try and get pitching this off season.

 

Melvin can not like his staff, try to get pitching and still not get any though. That is what happened this past off season as well.

 

Look at the teams in the playoff race.

 

 

Yankees/Boston - combination of young home grown guys and expensive vets that the Brewers couldn't afford

Tampa - mostly home grown

Detroit - 3 of 5 starters home grown

Angles - almost all home grown

Phillies - Happ/Hamels home grown, Lee rental

Braves - homegrowns+vazquez

Cardinals - don't know how this rotation is any good but they are defying the odds.

Dodgers - studs are home grown

Rockies - studs are home grown

Giants - studs are home grown

 

Very few teams can build a good rotation without at least 2 top end home grown starters and many have 3. You have to develop pitching, you can't just sign guys or trade for them in most cases. Sometimes you luck into something like the Cardinals have but in general you have to develop at least 2 solid guys and then sign/trade for a 3rd. We have developed 2 starting pitchers in the past 7 years(Sheets/Gallardo), that isn't going to cut it. The best he can really hope for is that we trade a Hardy for a AA guy who grows into something in our system. I think people are expecting too much if they think we will walk into next season with a rotation that looks like a playoff one on paper.

[brewblue1]

So one start in AAA is enough to make you doubt that Suppan will continue to be an adequate back of the rotation starter?

 

The thing is, though, that Suppan hasn't been relied upon to be a back of the rotation starter. M&M have been pitching him as a front ender. He started on Opening Day for cripes sakes!

 

Unless something changes quickly, Suppan will again be relied upon to be a #2 or #3 next year and he's is NOT an acceptable pitcher in those spots, IMHO.

 

I'm gonna back off my calls to fire Melvin until after this coming offseason. I'm not sure there is much he can do to improve the pathetic pitching on this club given the lack of any future pitching prospects in the minors and the sudden lack of trade bait on the offense, but maybe he can work some magic this winter anyway.

 

I still doubt, very seriously, DM's ability to build this team into a REAL contender given the corner he has backed himself into.

 

Seriously, best of luck Doug.

[Baldkin]

So, I want to recap, to make sure I have the "Fire Doug Melvin" side of the equation correct...

 

All credit for the young guys who are good goes to Jack Z.

All credit for the lack of young pitching goes to Doug Melvin

Every guy who underproduces, gets hurt, or otherwise doesn't live up to his contract: Doug Melvin's fault, and the guy should've been traded sooner.

Every guy who has a great year for the team and over produces his contract was pure luck

 

That about right?

[logan82]

Suppan is probably relied upon to be a #4 for us at best. I really doubt anybody thinks he is better than Parra or Bush.

[PeaveyFury]

That about right?

 

Well played, sir.

[trwi7]

Braves - homegrowns+vazquez

Who are the homegrowns?

 

Vazquez = trade

Kawakami = free agent

Lowe = free agent

Hanson = homegrown

Jurrjens = trade

[brewizard]

That about right?

 

Not really. Both Jack Z and Doug M did some things absolutely right. But look where the team is right now. This team - even with Braun and Fielder - would have a real hard time beating the 2006 Brewers. Let's just say it is nobody's fault. I can hear Attanasio talking to the ownership group now: "Don't worry. It is nobody's fault the team has regressed so severely. Perhaps next year..."

[Ennder]

Ahh sorry, I thought Jurrrjens was home grown. Their #6 is also Medlen who is home grown. Jurrjens was traded before he was a household name though which speaks to my point. It is rare a team has a rotation that looks like a playoff calibre one on paper unless they have brought up 2-3 guys out of their own farm system and broken them in at the major league level. It just isn't that likely that we are going to trade for a rotation that looks great on paper. If that is what people expect they will likely be disappointed.

 

Jurrjens is exactly the type of guy I'd target with the Hardy trade though. Someone you can break in for 2010 and hopefully rely on in 2011. Gallardo, 'the next jurrjens' and one of our own up and comers can form the start of a decent rotation that you can build around with FA/trades pretty easily. You just need to have 2-3 younger guys to build around and we don't really have that unless Parra does a 180 next year.

[snyttri]

Look at the teams in the playoff race.

 

The White Sox traded for all their starters or signed them as FA's except Buehrle.

 

Danks, Floyd, Contreras, Colon, Garcia, Peavy soon. They have used a spot starter from their system, traded one for Peavy and hope to have one in next year's rotation.

[Ennder]

Look at the teams in the playoff race.

 

The White Sox traded for all their starters or signed them as FA's except Buehrle.

 

Danks, Floyd, Contreras, Colon, Garcia, Peavy soon. They have used a spot starter from their system, traded one for Peavy and hope to have one in next year's rotation.

Danks and Floyd were both traded for when they were not established though which is exactly my point. In 2008 people looked at the White Sox rotation and counted them out because they just didn't have enough and then these two gave them a real staff. I am not saying we can't trade for some soon to maybe be good SP, I just don't think there is any chance we walk into next season with what you would call a stable rotation. You need to either trade for unproven guys and hope they hold up or develop your own guys. They may technically be an exception but they still illustrate the point.

 

If people think we will walk into 2010 with a rotation that screams 'this is a playoff team' they are going to be disappointed. That just is not going to happen and not because Melvin is the GM but because it just isn't realistic.

[kramnoj]

If Doug Melvin does not fully understand that the #1 priority in building a World Series contender is pitching, then he has no business being a MLB GM.

 

Why should he have that understanding? The Braves won WS with their pitching staff.

 

Having good pitching really helps, but it's not the only way. The best way to build a team is to assemble the best talent that the budget will allow. It also helps to be lucky. The Brewers were winning with the team that Melvin assembled this year. Injuries to Bush and Suppan derailed the season. That's a fault with depth, which is certainly Melvin's responsibility, but seasons are lost in baseball because of injuries, it happens.

[snyttri]

If people think we will walk into 2010 with a rotation that screams 'this is a playoff team' they are going to be disappointed. That just is not going to happen and not because Melvin is the GM but because it just isn't realistic.

 

It is because Melvin is the GM. Danks, Floyd and others were available on the trade market and as FA's. It takes a GM with imagination to acquire soon to be good pitchers for declining assets. Williams has had a weak farm system to use as trade bait but has made the most of it. He has signed fewer bad contracts. Williams has had more money to work with but Melvin might be given more money if ownership had more confidence it would not be misspent. After seven years Melvin is responsible for his results, good and bad.

 

Melvin has had enough success compared to Brewers history to be given another year. But just as Jack Z and Mike Maddux seemed to be the best at their jobs in the Brewers organization in the past, Mark A. might be the Brewers most talented executive now. For Mark A. to make the most of his ability he would have to hire his own GM.

[TheCrew07]

So, I want to recap, to make sure I have the "Fire Doug Melvin" side of the equation correct...

 

All credit for the young guys who are good goes to Jack Z.

Wrong, Melvin came in and recognized scouting talent, and keep the dept intact and provided consistent direction, there is no shame in that. I've taken Z to task numerous times regarding the lack of pitching in the organization.

 

All credit for the lack of young pitching goes to Doug Melvin

See previous. Ultimately Melvin was in a position to address the issue, we've been down this road literally 100s of times in this thread. He's had his opportunities to address the situation and hasn't done anything long term of significance since 2003.

 

Every guy who underproduces, gets hurt, or otherwise doesn't live up to his contract: Doug Melvin's fault, and the guy should've been traded sooner.

Err what? My opinion that Hardy should have been moved isn't revisionist history, I argued for it all winter. His suckitude this season has nothing to do with it. Furthermore, I never liked Hall and didn't want him extended either. I was very new to posting around here at the time, had just gotten stomped for asking why everyone loved that scrub Ginter so much, I wasn't going to stick my neck out again and go against the flow, regrettably so now. However every post I've ever made about Hall says pretty much the same thing. I would have traded Hall for the same reason I would trade McGehee if a team is interested, and I've explained those ideas at length in various other posts.

 

I listed a bunch of players Melvin could have moved for pitching if he was willing, in addition to acquiring very average talent in the Overbay trade. I'm not talking about trading them today, I'm was talking about identifying pieces that could have been somewhat easily replaced and moving them for pitching. Fielder is a special hitter, Braun is a special talent, all of the rest of the guys could have been moved without significantly weakening the team, regardless of when they were moved. It's simply much easier to get affordable production out of position players in FA than it is pitching.

Every guy who has a great year for the team and over produces his contract was pure luck

Who even suggested that in this thread? Maybe I skimmed past it catching up on posts. Who are we even talking about? McGehee? Over performed their contract by what measure? Fangraphs' contract value? When fangraphs' value matches fair market value (what that player would command on the open market) then you might have a case. I don't want to get into the whole sliding economic scale thing in this post, but relative value between what the Brewers can play a player and the Yankees can pay a player should make my case for me.

 

That about right?

Nope, not even close to what's being said. Melvin, as the GM is ultimately responsible for the state of the MLB ball club. Z definitely didn't have enough high ceiling, or even MLB caliber arms in the system, but DM had his chances along the way to remedy the situation. Even 1 more quality starter acquired prior to 2008 may have made a drastic difference in the current make up of the team today, maybe we'd be in the same position, but I doubt it. He acquired Wright, Green, and Looper this off season (scrub, scrub, old stop gap), did he even inquire about Jackson or Niemann from TB knowing they had too many pitchers for 5 rotation spots? Many of us pointed out at the time that Wright and Green weren't better depth than what we already had in AAA, and at the time I posted "why not Niemann?"

 

This isn't rocket science, I argued against acquiring Sabathia for this very scenario... a major hole in the rotation, 2 more holes on the way in Bush and Suppan leaving, and this first wave approaching FA. We couldn't dump all of the prospects in the system with all of the holes coming up, and every prospect Melvin dumps on a position player is an asset wasted. He's had a finite number of assets to trade and DM hasn't acquired a single starting pitcher (the biggest hole in the entire organization) of significant talent since JDLR. I have hard time understanding why this idea isn't supremely clear. If we don't have any pitching in the system, don't trade for the pitching, and aren't able to afford FA pitching, where is the pitching going to come from? Every prospect Melvin dumps on a position player is an asset wasted, the Lopez move was completely unnecessary, I would have much rather moved Gillespie and Mercedes as part of a package for pitching.

 

As Peavey previously pointed out, I've been a critic of every single move Melvin has made in the last 3 years... I've pissed on every deal because he's never addressed the fundamental problem with the team or the organization, the starting pitching. All these line up tweaks, bull pen acquisitions, and so on have been trying to cure the symptom instead of the disease. When he finally acquires a starting pitcher with significant talent that we can control for 2-3 years I'll give DM his props. Until then I'll fire away on every single meaningless acquisition like Lopez and stop gap move like Looper. Fix the root cause Doug, and everything else will fall in line for you.

[homer]

The Angels have pretty bad pitching this year but they lead the league in runs so they are in first place. We'll see how that works out for them in a short series but so far so good.