Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[RobertR]

Yeah, that's just arguing for arguments sake. Yeah, it's Cordero's fault for the 2007 collapse, the All Star closer with the very good ERA and save percentage. Not someone like Derek Turnbow. Or Yost, who even after he had a solid alternative like Linebrink didn't make optimal use of that alternative.

 

The Lee/Cordero deal was a fine trade. An All Star for an All Star at a position of need.

 

I'll add that the Torres trade for 2008 has to go into the books as a very big win for Melvin on the positive side of the ledger.

 

Robert

[DougJones43]

Melvin just doesn't seem to be a good judge of starting pitching talent. The free agents he's signed, and the prospects he's dealt for have almost without fail turned out to be disappointments. If even one above average starter had come from the crop of De la Rosa, Capellan, or Zack Jackson the team would be in much better shape. If Suppan and/or Looper weren't basically below replacement level, that would have helped a lot as well.

 

Other contending teams seem to sign stop-gap type starting pitchers like Suppan and Looper to fill out their rotation as well, but have better success and maybe get a good year or two out of a guy from time to time at least -- so it's not unheard of to at least get some decent production out of marginally talented pitchers. The only guy Melvin really had like that was Doug Davis, and that was several years ago and then he swapped him for bottom-feeder Claudio Vargas. It just seems like Melvin always makes moves that fail miserably (in recent years) with regards to starting pitching, so I have no faith in his ability to judge pitching at this point.

[joepepsi]

Other contending teams seem to sign stop-gap type starting pitchers like Suppan and Looper to fill out their rotation as well, but have better success and maybe get a good year or two out of a guy from time to time at least -- so it's not unheard of to at least get some decent production out of marginally talented pitchers. The only guy Melvin really had like that was Doug Davis, and that was several years ago and then he swapped him for bottom-feeder Claudio Vargas.

Capuano, Bush, Ohka. Santos spread 55 starts over two seasons with an ERA around 4.75. Vargas was a fine as a 5th starter.

 

Suppan's first season was exactly what anyone should have expected. His peripherals last year closely match his first year, his ERA is just higher. This year he was right where he was in '07 until his final two starts when he was probably injured.

 

Looper's season so far is similar to his first as a starter with the Cardinals. Last year is probably the outlier, but, as with Suppan, it could also be the product of the Cardinals having a superior pitching coach, and the manager using his players to their most effective.

 

Looper and Suppan are fine if you consider them as 4/5 starters. Despite their salaries, I am sure that's how Doug had the depth chart laid out in his mind, with Gallardo, Parra, and Bush being the most productive starters. McClung was the 6th starter.

 

These 6 healthy and pitching around their career norms was enough to make a run at the playoffs. Of course that didn't happen. I think it's fair to blame the organization and/or Melvin for the lack of starting pitching depth in the high minors.

[Never Outhustled]

The Lee/Cordero deal was a fine trade. An All Star for an All Star at a position of need.

I can agree with that, but you can't deny the Mench/Nelson Cruz deal was atrocious, both short term and long term. Hart was better than Mench back then, heck, Cruz was as good as Mench.

[DougJones43]

Capuano, Bush, Ohka. Santos spread 55 starts over two seasons with an ERA around 4.75. Vargas was a fine as a 5th starter.

Outside of Bush, the most recent any of these guys had a respectable season in a Brewers uniform was 2006. That's a long time ago. I'm not even sure I'd consider Vargas to have been a fine #5 starter, and we gave up a much better starter in Doug Davis as part of the deal to acquire him.

 

Citing a collection of barely passable #5 starters and guys from 3+ years ago isn't exactly changing my mind.

[joepepsi]

Capuano, Bush, Ohka. Santos spread 55 starts over two seasons with an ERA around 4.75. Vargas was a fine as a 5th starter.

Outside of Bush, the most recent any of these guys had a respectable season in a Brewers uniform was 2006. That's a long time ago. I'm not even sure I'd consider Vargas to have been a fine #5 starter, and we gave up a much better starter in Doug Davis as part of the deal to acquire him.

 

Citing a collection of barely passable #5 starters and guys from 3+ years ago isn't exactly changing my mind.

I didn't think I needed to cite Suppan and Looper since you used them as an example of marginal talent. Your premise was Melvin has never been able to get production from even marginal pitching talent. I cited several players. Last year's rotation was pretty talented, using the lack of marginal rotation talent in 2008 as a criticism is curious.

 

I'm not coming back to this topic. I should have know better! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tired.gif

[DougJones43]

Your premise was Melvin has never been able to get production from even marginal pitching talent.

That, and the fact that he hasn't hit on any of the pitching prospects he traded for -- not even close. And again, when I was referencing his inability to get any production out of his free agent signings, I was more referring to adding any production during this timeframe when we have gotten competetive (the last 2-3 years). The fact that we'd have to dig back that far to find any successful production from his signings/trades (without trading LaPorta, the club's best hitting prospect) for 3+ years just isn't a very good sign IMO.

[Ennder]

You can blame him for Suppan and that is about it. Looper was a case of just not having any money so having to go with some cheap guy. I'd rather have Looper than a guy like say Garland who got more money and isn't really any better.

 

In 2007 we actually had plenty of pitching depth so didn't need anyone. 2004/2005/2006 we traded for Bush/Capuano/Ohka and signed Davis which were all fine moves. 2008 we traded for Sabathia. The big issue in this entire time frame is the lack of internal options to add depth. We have had depth to add from the minors in only 1 year out of the past 5. When you aren't a big market team and you rarely have any pitchers come up from your own system you are just in a world of hurt in general. When you add a bad contract for a guy like Suppan and Sheets/Gallardo getting hurt for such long stretches it just makes things worse.

[Never Outhustled]

Looper was a case of just not having any money so having to go with some cheap guy. I'd rather have Looper than a guy like say Garland who got more money and isn't really any better.

We'd be dramtically different with Jason Marquis. Also, we could have just traded Hart for Edwin Jackson and scrubs for Josh Willingham. We'd then be good, and under budget.

 

Melvin is way too far into his tenue to be judged by the moves he makes. he needs to start being judged by his awful W/L record.

[DougJones43]

You can blame him for Suppan and that is about it.

You don't think Melvin deserves any blame for all of the noteworthy pitching prospects he obtained contributing absolutely nothing? Like I said, his big acquisitions were supposed to be De la Rosa, Capellan, and Zack Jackson. None even really came close to doing anything. That has to be seen as somewhat of a reflection on his ability to evaluate starting pitching. There's also something to be said for the neglect that comes with only making deals for 3 or so pitching prospects during a long tenure, with none of those deals occurring anytime recently.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin has never shown the ability to put together a top flight pitching staff. That was true in Texas and its true now. Like others have said Melvin could have traded Hart for Jackson but has he ever made that kind of move. Other than drafting Gallardo and Parra Melvin has done a poor job of acquiring real pitching talent through the draft or with trades. He has been a GM long enough now that its time to seriously question if Melvin is a good judge of pitching talent.

 

We have had opportunities Im sure over the last few offseasons to trade for the likes of Edwin Jackson, Jeff Nieman and jair Jurrjens. No doubt its difficult to acquire young pitchers via the trade route but there have been good arms dealt. It was obvious that Tampa was either gonna trade Jackson or Niemann and they were looking for a bat in return. If Matt Joyce was enough to get Jackson then surely Hart would have been as well. As much as I like Melvin and feel that he is a solid GM his inability to acquire young pitching as well as his inability to hire non dopes as manager make me feel like we should probably turn the page. Sadly Jack Z was hired away a year early or we would have had a great candidate to replace Melvin.

[Invader3K]

I have started to wonder somewhat if maybe Melvin is one of those GMs who can make a bad team good, but not make a good team great. Kind of like how Ned Yost was as a manager.

[Ennder]

You don't think Melvin deserves any blame for all of the noteworthy pitching prospects he obtained contributing absolutely nothing? Like I said, his big acquisitions were supposed to be De la Rosa, Capellan, and Zack Jackson

 

I just don't think you are being realistic with this comment. Kolb was not exactly a hot commodity when we traded him for Capellan. De La Rosa was part of a big deal and not the major part. Jackson again was a throw in type player. These are not noteworthy prospects, they are guys that we really gave up nothing to get.

Like others have said Melvin could have traded Hart for Jackson but has he ever made that kind of move.

 

Could have as in you have absolutely no clue if he could have or not. Joyce is probably comperable to Hart only younger, with more service time and from Tampa. I'm not so sure they would have taken Hart after his miserable finish to last season, the fact they didn't need a full time starter just yet and that he would be getting expensive and gone too early.

 

Other than drafting Gallardo and Parra Melvin has done a poor job of acquiring real pitching talent through the draft or with trades

 

So Melvin has nothing to do with the hitters we drafted but it his fault the pitchers didn't work out? While Melvin has input you have to blame Jack Z for the drafting more than anyone else. We did trade for Capuano and Bush who both had success at the major league level. He picked up Davis who had success.

[Jay Zahn]

You can blame him for Suppan and that is about it.

You don't think Melvin deserves any blame for all of the noteworthy pitching prospects he obtained contributing absolutely nothing? Like I said, his big acquisitions were supposed to be De la Rosa, Capellan, and Zack Jackson. None even really came close to doing anything. That has to be seen as somewhat of a reflection on his ability to evaluate starting pitching. There's also something to be said for the neglect that comes with only making deals for 3 or so pitching prospects during a long tenure, with none of those deals occurring anytime recently.

Very few GMs have a consistently good record in trades or free agent signings. I suppose the really poor ones could be consistently bad, but on the top end there just isn't anyone who is going to make a productive move every time.

 

Unless you're going to trade for somebody in the low minors your chance of getting an ace level pitcher is almost nil. When we traded Sexson to Arizona they were not going to give up Brandon Webb. We got Capuano, who actually produced fairly well for us, and de la Rosa, who'd had a good year in the minors in 2003 but who never developed while he was here. For Overbay we got Bush, who had some good years for us, and Jackson, who never developed. You are not going to get ace level talent in those sorts of trades.

 

Your primary source for good, young, pitching talent has to be the farm system. The Brewers have failed miserably in this regard for 20 years. Producing Sheets, followed by a big gap, then Gallardo and Parra, and another looming gap, is inadequete. You need more fertile periods. In the late 1970s they came up with Travers, Augustine, Haas, and Sorenson. In the late 1980s they came up with Higuera, Wegman, Bosio, Nieves, and Plesac. It can be done. Otherwise you're living off of castoffs and scraps.

[DougJones43]

These are not noteworthy prospects...

Well, they are the most noteworthy he's acquired in 7 years as GM -- which speaks volumes by itself, because it's not as though there hasn't been talent within the organization to shuffle.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin has always had good offensive teams, both with the Brewers and with Texas. He has though shown a complete inability to acquire or draft enough power arms. I think Melvin is overall a good GM but he has to take the blame for this pitching staff. Going into the season we were supposed to be contenders but were we really with the rotation we had. Counting on a guy who threw 30 or so innings last season as your ace and 4 question marks to roundout the rotation wasnt smart. Melvin talks about how losing Bush and Suppan hurt us but Bush is average and Suppan is below replacement level at this point.

 

This rotation was never good to begin and we had no depth whatsoever which shows that we were really never good enough to contend this season.

[Ennder]

Well, they are the most noteworthy he's acquired in 7 years as GM -- which speaks volumes by itself, because it's not as though there hasn't been talent within the organization to shuffle.

 

There really was no talent to shuffle until around 2005. The early Melvin years this organization was probably the worst in baseball form an overall talent standpoint. You could argue that they should have moved Hall after his big year since he actually created our first surplus at a position that we'd had in years but you could also argue his hands were a bit tied since both Weeks and Hardy got hurt that year so were questionable somewhat for the next season. The next surplus we had in any way was Hardy and Escobar this season and they have looked to move Hardy. Hardy having the terrible season has made this a lot harder.

 

Melvin's first year as GM here is the team he got handed.

 

Paul Bako

Richie Sexson - wisely traded for prospects

Eric Young

Jose Hernandez

Tyler Houston

Geoff Jenkins

Alex Sanchez

Jeffrey Hammonds

Ron Belliard

 

Glendon Rusch

Ben Sheets

Ruben Quevedo

Jamey Wright

Nick Neugebaur

Mike DeJean

Jose Cabrera

Luis Vizcaino

Ray King

Valero De Los Santos

 

 

We have slowly built up a respectable team but there was absolutely nothing to work with until the last few seasons and even then very little depth anywhere. We added some quality hitters at most positions from within but the only real pitchers of note that we developed over that entire stretch are Gallardo and Parra. When that is all you develop over a 7 year period your pitching is going to be a problem no matter who your GM is, especially when you have no depth at all to trade from.

 

The next wave of prospects are going to be incredibly important to the future of the franchise and us using money more wisely than we did with Suppan because one terrible contract like that can easily cripple a team like ours.

[Postseason2006]

Moeller and Counsell were hardly prospects. Sexson easily could've generated more in terms of players along with Lee. You trade All - Stars for more than what he has.

[Postseason2006]

An All Star for an All Star at a position of need.

No. Lee was an All Star. Cordero was having a below average season and was removed from his closer's role. Then maybe we could get Heath Bell for Hardy?

[crewcrazy]

An All Star for an All Star at a position of need.

No. Lee was an All Star. Cordero was having a below average season and was removed from his closer's role. Then maybe we could get Heath Bell for Hardy?

Both had been named All-Stars previously in their careers at the time of the trade. Granted, Cordero's appearance came in 2004 and Lee made appearances in 2005 and that 2006 season, but I think that's what Robert was getting at. As already noted, Cordero was really only bad during April that year, and was a very very good closer during his time in Milwaukee (2.60 ERA with 60 saves in 1.5 seasons).

 

Cordero-for-Lee was pretty even in itself. I think what most people have a problem with is the second part of the trade (Nelson Cruz for Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix). In retrospect it does look bad, but Cruz took awhile to even blossom for Texas and Mench was a disappointment compared to his career numbers at the point of the trade...he had an .818 career OPS (and an OPS+ of 107). He completely fell off a cliff upon leaving Texas, which is what makes the trade look bad.

[TheCrew07]

Melvin is a decent GM, but he does not take risks, and to acquire projectable starting pitching that's a necessity as young pitching is always risky.

 

Overbay - MLB ready talent in Bush, Former #1 draft picks in Jackson (soft tossing lefty), and Gross bypassing superior talent in the system who had been drafted lower Marcum, or a more projectable pitcher in McGowan.

 

Kolb - Capellan... seriously Kolb was a "hot commodity" (that's a stretch Ennder, he was a scrap heap reclamation project as a reliever) and we got swindled into Capellan? Our scouts must have been in the stands with radar guns and knew the truth...

 

Sexson - Cappy (MLB ready, prototypical crafty LHP) De La Rosa (the only pitcher DM has acquired with top of the rotation stuff) JDLR had all kinds of issues including never throwing enough strikes even at AAA.

 

Capellan - Cody (soft tossing LHP)

 

Franklin - Villy (soft tossing RHP)

 

Junior Spivey - Ohka (back of the rotation starter)

 

Davis and Eveland - Vargas and Estrada. While Vargas reaches the mid 90s, his control was suspect and he was a back of the rotation starter

 

Gross - Butler... Butler has some tools, he's probably a #3 best case, not a bad haul for Gross, but sort of a confusing trade for the reasons RobertR has mentioned.

 

For many of those deals he wasn't going to get top of the rotation pitching... Franklin, Kolb, Capellan, Spivey, Gross, Davis (selling low) and he used the Sexson deal to retool the organization, so I give him a pass there. The only deal he's made where he had a chance to acquire meaningful starting pitching was Overbay and the farther we get from that deal the worse it gets for me.

 

Other than Overbay, it's not the deals he's made that have been the problem but rather the fact that he hasn't acquired any pitcher with enough stuff to be a legit 1 or 2 other than Sabathia who was never going to be anything more than a rental. His inactivity addressing an obvious hole, not only at the MLB level, but throughout the entire organization is evidence enough. He built the team in Texas the same way, he's a conservative GM, he makes almost exclusively low risk moves. He's great a building a franchise quickly, his theory on "average" players is spot on, but you aren't going to win a championship with a league average rotation. So again I'm not sure if my personal goal of a championship meshes with what Melvin is actually trying to build towards, I really don't know, but if we aren't in it to win a championship, then what exactly is the point?

 

It's been the same argument 2 years in a row now out of the same people, "You don't know what Melvin was offered, etc". That's a garbage argument, other teams are out there making deals for pitching every year. It's the same as the "creating a hole" argument. It's so much easier to acquire a reasonably priced position player than a pitcher, look at the production difference between Cameron and Suppan... and Suppan is more expensive. You move a position player to fill greater position of need, it's not creating a hole, it's getting the best value out of any given situation and good business. It can be done, the Rays kind of ruined it for everyone being so aggresive acquiring pitching. Teams are now looking to mimic that success, yes it's much more difficult to acquire pitching now than it was a few years ago as the game has changed.

 

However deals are still made every off season... I missed the Jackson trade as well... I honestly thought Sonnanstine was going to be the odd man out, my exact comment about the Rays was "... when Jackson is your worst starter you have an awful good rotation". I wanted Niemann, he was ripe for the picking, he would have been better than Looper. Did Melvin even bid for Jackson knowing Tampa had to make room for Price and possibly Niemann? That's the root issue here, we needed to acquire ascending pitchers with enough talent to hold a top rotation spot, not overpaying for declining stop gaps hoping for one more good year in the sun out of them.

 

What if DM had acquired Marcum instead of Bush and Jackson? Can we say for sure that the dominos would have fallen the same way? Yost was pretty careful with young arms, would Marcum still have gotten hurt? Would Yo have been on the mound that fateful day at Wrigley to get hurt? What if we wouldn't have had to burn the LaPorta package on Sabathia but could have used it to target a different pitcher this off season to replace Sheets? Would Sabathia have been necessary with Sheets, Marcum, and Yo? The idea here should be about possibilities, those that are critical of Melvin's pitching moves are looking at what could have been, instead of what actually happened. The possibilities are pretty limitless if you allow your mind to open to the idea that more could have and probably should have been done instead of summarily dismissing it. The trends here are clearly defined, it's pretty obvious how Melvin is going to go about his business, it's reasonable to suggest he needs to change his approach if this team is going to get better. He's not been a trend setter, he's been more of a follower, looking to mimic what other organizations have been doing.

 

I'm no great seer, I had no idea when I was beating the trade Hardy drum all off season that he would be terrible in 2009. Why would I root for my favorite player to be terrible anyway, if we hung onto him I wanted type A compensation for him. I was making a value argument about replacing 1 player with 2 players above replacement level and it got spun way out of control as many people on the MLB forum don't adequately understand how to measure prospects or value, they want to apply sabermetric analysis to them, and the minors and evolving players are way to nebulous for that sort of analysis. There's no waiting for a prospect to be "ready" if you want to get the best possible value out of a deal, because once the whole baseball world knows the prospect is "ready" they also know you have to move one of the players which in the end lowers the trade value of both parties. In addition the MLB player's salary and contract length also need to be taken into consideration. Hardy was never going to be more valuable than he was last off season, even he hit as well in 2009 as he had in 2007 and 2008 because he's becoming expensive and approaching FA.

 

I'm not sure how many people on the MLB forum have a subscription to BA, but there's a couple of good articles from July that I've been sitting on. The one I like best is here. I admit it suits my philosophy to a "T" because I want to build around a rotation, but I thought it was interesting to see how multiple GMs value pitching, neither the Os or Nats are in a similar position talent wise to the Crew with their position players, nothing of value they are willing to move (Hall in 2006, Overbay, Hardy, whichever) so they've taken a different tact

 

BALTIMORE-Andy MacPhail, the Orioles' president of baseball operations, has a favorite expression that doubles as his philosophy toward rebuilding a franchise that's finished below .500 for the last 11 seasons and is again mired in last place.

 

"Grow the arms and buy the bats."

 

He didn't say anything about the growing pains that go along with it, but they wouldn't change his course of thinking.

"It's always been about your pitchers; it's always going to be about your pitchers. It's the hardest thing to get, and after you do that, everything else gets much easier. So, we've spent all our time and attention on finding young pitchers."

"We know that it's going to require very good pitching to get into the postseason," MacPhail said.

 

"That is a constant, particularly in our division. And the likelihood of obtaining it through major league free agency, which is expensive, and also the appeal for a pitcher to come into the AL East and compete against teams we do, make that path less attractive. So we know that we have to grow our own.

 

"We're pretty confident that we can get position players that we need to fill different holes. Pitching is something that's going to have to come through our system."

I thought this blurb was worth noting as well, because Hughes has been a regular target on the transaction forum.

 

"Tillman is wise beyond his years. He can pitch and he has good mound presence. It's different pitching in the AL East, but I think he should be able to handle it. You take a guy like Phil Hughes. If you put him in the AL West, he might be an 18-game winner. Pitching in New York and Boston is different. But the young guys in this system-Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz-seem like they'll be mentally and emotionally prepared for the Yankees and Red Sox and Tampa.

"The most important thing to remember is young pitchers, if they're successful, grow and grow and grow and become more and more expensive," Kasten said.

 

"In Atlanta, we started out with a very low payroll because we had young kids. But they all grew up together and they all became expensive together, and we kept them together because we were winning. And I can assure you, that's exactly what will happen here just as soon as we get this nucleus put together."

 

The Orioles and Nationals didn't invent the formula. They're just the latest organizations to use it as the game changes with the times.

[TooLiveBrew]

Kolb - Capellan... seriously Kolb was a "hot commodity" (that's a stretch Ennder, he was a scrap heap reclamation project as a reliever) and we got swindled into Capellan? Our scouts must have been in the stands with radar guns and knew the truth...

 

Actually, here is what Ennder said in #387: Kolb was not exactly a hot commodity when we traded him for Capellan.

[Ennder]

The problem with that post TheCrew07 is you have absolutely no clue what Melvin asked for, you might not like that 'excuse' but it is certainly the truth. How do you know he wasn't targetting Marcum and settled for Bush/Jackson(I don't honestly think they would have traded Marcum for Overbay since he was a much higher regarded prospect than Jackson). There is just absolutely no way to know those type of things. Maybe he offered up Hardy or Hart for Jackson and got turned down. The guy they eventually traded him for has just as much upside, is younger, has more service time left and was a Tampa native.

 

The end of your post seems to contradict the beginning. You grow young pitching, that is the key to success for everyone but the large market teams. We have failed to grow our pitching and that is ultimately the problem. Sure maybe we could have traded for some young guys and hoped but when we traded Sexson and Overbay the target was more just fielding a competitive team and grow the fan base more than anything else. We had gaping holes at every position when we made those trades.

[brewerjamie15]

Melvin seems to cost Mark A. quite a bit of cash on some total blow outs. Eric Gagne. Bill Hall. Resigning of Corey Hart at an inflated price. There are more of course and that.

No pitching prospects to be seen.

The joke of how the coaching staff is run. Fire one dude way, way too late in the season, keep his staff around, then instead of bringing in a new manager with his own staff choices, tell him who he gets.

Starting the last two seasons with no third baseman in mind.

Building a team with a massive strikeout rate and lots of power, but no OBP guys to be driven in when the power works and that.

The Sabathia move was good, but netted us nothing for the future. Not his fault entirely, but it happened and that.

How many worthless players has he brought into this organization anyhow?

No pitching.

Doug Melvin is kinda like Ned Yost. Good to build you to a level of success, but not able to continue to the next step.

Time for Melvin to go. Perhaps he and Yost could join efforts in Pittsburgh.

[TooLiveBrew]

Neal Huntington has actually done a nice job in Pittsburgh imo. I don't know why he'd get canned.

 

 

The joke of how the coaching staff is run.

 

I thought Macha decided to retain Sveum & Castro. Is this recollection wrong? And of course I am one of many that doesn't believe Melvin wanted to fire Yost when he was fired.