Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[hawing]

I believe the Brewers are 13-9 in Looper starts.

[Ayt]

Yes Looper was a stop gap but he's still performing 2-3 wins worse than expected. They thought they were getting 2-3 wins above replacement and instead ended up with replacement.

What's the team's record in Looper's starts?

How many runs do the Brewers score on average in his starts?

 

Unless you think a SP has control over how the offense performs on days that he pitches, team record on days that he starts isn't all that relevant.

[RU Rah Rah]

Yes Looper was a stop gap but he's still performing 2-3 wins worse than expected. They thought they were getting 2-3 wins above replacement and instead ended up with replacement.

What's the team's record in Looper's starts?

How many runs do the Brewers score on average in his starts?

 

Unless you think a SP has control over how the offense performs on days that he pitches, team record on days that he starts isn't all that relevant.

You're acting like I'm not even permitted to ask this kind of question.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If Looper was pitching to his expected level, the team would be better than 13-9 in his starts. They've had to score 7+ runs in his starts to be playing .590 ball. They should realistically be about 16-6 in that same span.

[sgtcluels]

Because during his presser today, he said he doesn't believe in run differential. Saying that there's no difference in losing 6 - 5 or 16 - 1. Then cited the Yankees as being the best in baseball and still lost 22 - 1.

 

Doug, you cited an outlier of the stat. There's a vast difference between losing 13 - 2 all the time and losing one or two games a year big.

[BrewCrewRising]

He's right in that there is no difference losing 6-5 or 13-2, or even in winning 6-5 or 13-2. Each one results in a loss or a win.

However, if his analysis stops there, then he does need to be fired. If he doesn't realize that a team that wins 90 games 6-5 is just glaringly lucky, and that a team that wins 90 games 13-2 is dominant, then he has no business being a GM.

But since I didn't hear it first hand, I don't know what he was responding to, and he intended to say. But sftcluels's quote does disconcert me a little.

[Ennder]

Looper is pitching poorer than expected using one single (somewhat flawed imo) sabr statistic. By the majority of sabr statistics and traditional ones he is doing almost exactly what was expected. Maybe a tiny bit on the high end because his last start wasn't so great but right in the general range.

[sgtcluels]

Exactly Brew. RD is more of an indicator if something is wrong. To dismiss it by just citing an outlier isn't exactly using the stat for what it's intended for. I'm sure if we were +38RD and still having these results, DM would have said it was just bad luck.

 

Looper is horrible. He's worse in all his peripherals. HR rate up, K rate down, BB rate up and his BABIP is actually down from last year but that's more luck then anything. Everything I look at for Looper is bad, FIP, TRA+, WAR/RAR. The worst part is, we have to pay him 1 million dollars next year to not play for us.

[shelmark]

I'm not on board for firing Melvin, but it is interesting with all this flurry of activity the one thing he has not done is the thing that needed to be done most, get us some starting pitching.

[Postseason2006]

Doug Melvin should've never made it through last year when Yost was fired. His hiring of Ken Macha was like Mike Sherman hiring Tom Rossley as offensive coordinator.

His trades of not getting market value in the Carlos Lee deal still upsets me because he traded for an underperforming reliever and a bad defensive, average offensive player in Mench. He was slow and most of his homers came in one month. Then the mere fact he became obsessed with Laynce Nix in the deal was even more crazy.

No one actually knows what the Angels offered for Carlos Lee that year but there were reports that Ervin Santana was possibly included. I hate when GM's give up All-Stars see Greg Vaughn, for garvage in return.

Wasting 10 million dollars on Gagne was absolutely brutal last year. The Riske and Suppan signing have been a trainwreck along with now Bill Hall's 12 million dollars we are eating.

I suggested two years ago for getting Terry Ryan in replace of him and was flamed out of this forum.

My next beef if the way we've treated "some" of our young players when we've called them up. Instead of letting them play, they rot on the bench. I COMPLETELY PUT THE BLAME ON MELVIN FOR THIS. This started with Corey Hart in 2006 when Mench and Jenkins saw the field over him. This also counts for Gamel rotting on the pines and Escobar not starting last night.

I also fault him for giving Castro the job when our BP has not been worth a crap since he's been here. Why would you promote this guy?

My last beef was getting rid of Frank Kremblas instead of getting rid of Yost two years too late. Doug Melvin is a middle of the pack GM. He's not great and he's not horrible. For some reason he was completely worshipped here because of how bad Wendy and Bando were.

[RU Rah Rah]

Is there a list someplace (another thread?) of DM's meaningful GM moves over the past few years? I just keep remembering the cash-for-clunker, ex-Ranger retread deals, and that's probably not fair in terms of assessing his overall performance.

[BrewCrewForever]

I do still scratch my head on letting Frank Kremblas go.

[tigerbrew]

I do still scratch my head on letting Frank Kremblas go.

Me too, he was my first choice to replace Yost.

 

I remember back then some fans including myself were pushing for Kremblas to replace Yost for months in this forum. Then there was a rumor from a blog that Haudricourt referenced that said Ned was going to be fired and got our hopes up real high. That rumor turned out to be false and got Ned really upset. Then there was an unpleasant conversation between Ash and Kremblas (probably on the lack of promotion opportunity), and Kremblas was subsequently fired by Melvin probably to appease his buddy Ned who was afraid of his rival Kremblas. Kremblas was an outstanding minor league manager for the Brewers over the years, sad to see him go because of politics.

[saget]

I must admit I am being swayed in my opinion.

[crewcrazy]

Is there a list someplace (another thread?) of DM's meaningful GM moves over the past few years? I just keep remembering the cash-for-clunker, ex-Ranger retread deals, and that's probably not fair in terms of assessing his overall performance.

MLBTradeRumors did a "Trade History" for Doug Melvin at the end of last season. Moves in the last three calendar years, from the spreadsheet posted in November 2008:

 

7/20/2008 Darren Ford and Steve Hammond to Giants for Ray Durham

7/7/2008 Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley to Indians for CC Sabathia

4/22/2008 Gabe Gross to Rays for Josh Butler

12/7/2007 Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas to Pirates for Salomon Torres

11/20/2007 Johnny Estrada to Mets for Guillermo Mota

9/11/2007 Dennis Sarfate to Astros for cash

9/4/2007 Andrew Lefave to Nationals for Ray King

7/28/2007 Grant Balfour to Rays for Seth McClung

7/25/2007 Will Inman, Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison to Padres for Scott Linebrink

7/1/2007 Jose Capellan to Tigers for Christopher Cody

5/4/2007 J.D. Closser to A's for Charles Thomas

3/27/2007 Ben Hendrickson to Royals for Max St. Pierre

3/26/2007 Brady Clark and cash to Dodgers for Elmer Dessens

11/25/2006 Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, and Dave Krynzel to Diamondbacks for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino

7/28/2006 Wilfrido Laureano to Phillies for David Bell

7/28/2006 Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz to Rangers for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Julian Cordero

7/25/2006 Jorge de la Rosa to Royals for Tony Graffanino

5/26/2006 Mike Adams to Mets for Geremi Gonzalez

5/13/2006 Enrique Cruz and cash to Rangers for Brian Shouse

1/6/2006 Brian Wolfe to Blue Jays for Corey Koskie

[clancyphile]

MLBTradeRumors did a "Trade History" for Doug Melvin at the end of last season. Moves in the last three calendar years, from the spreadsheet posted in November 2008:

 

7/20/2008 Darren Ford and Steve Hammond to Giants for Ray Durham

7/7/2008 Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley to Indians for CC Sabathia

4/22/2008 Gabe Gross to Rays for Josh Butler

12/7/2007 Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas to Pirates for Salomon Torres

11/20/2007 Johnny Estrada to Mets for Guillermo Mota

9/11/2007 Dennis Sarfate to Astros for cash

9/4/2007 Andrew Lefave to Nationals for Ray King

7/28/2007 Grant Balfour to Rays for Seth McClung

7/25/2007 Will Inman, Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison to Padres for Scott Linebrink

7/1/2007 Jose Capellan to Tigers for Christopher Cody

5/4/2007 J.D. Closser to A's for Charles Thomas

3/27/2007 Ben Hendrickson to Royals for Max St. Pierre

3/26/2007 Brady Clark and cash to Dodgers for Elmer Dessens

11/25/2006 Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, and Dave Krynzel to Diamondbacks for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino

7/28/2006 Wilfrido Laureano to Phillies for David Bell

7/28/2006 Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz to Rangers for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Julian Cordero

7/25/2006 Jorge de la Rosa to Royals for Tony Graffanino

5/26/2006 Mike Adams to Mets for Geremi Gonzalez

5/13/2006 Enrique Cruz and cash to Rangers for Brian Shouse

1/6/2006 Brian Wolfe to Blue Jays for Corey Koskie

Darren Ford and Steve Hammond to Giants for Ray Durham

This deal was well worth making. I give it a B+

 

Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley to Indians for CC Sabathia

This deal is an A-. It goes to A+ if the Crew signs their supplemental pick.

 

Gabe Gross to Rays for Josh Butler

Boy, is Gabe Gross missed in 2009. If the Brewers don't make this deal, they don't need to deal for Gerut. F.

Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas to Pirates for Salomon Torres

Torres stepped in when Gagne collapsed. This deal is an A. Had the Crew been able to convince Torres to stick around. it would be an A+.

 

Johnny Estrada to Mets for Guillermo Mota

This deal was a wash. Mota did OK. B.

 

Dennis Sarfate to Astros for cash

Sarfate... hated to give up a pitcher for just cash. D

 

Andrew Lefave to Nationals for Ray King

This deal was a wash. C+

 

Grant Balfour to Rays for Seth McClung

McClung has been pretty good in 2008. Until his experiment as a starter, he was doing the job a bit more often than not. B.

 

Will Inman, Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison to Padres for Scott Linebrink

Linebrink wasn't a bad pickup, but failing to re-sign him meant the Brewers picked up Evan Frederickson - who at WORST is a left-handed Turnbow, and Cutter Dykstra - who might be a good utility guy. Thatcher would have been nice in the pen with Stetter, though. B

 

Jose Capellan to Tigers for Christopher Cody

Until coming to AAA, Cody was pwning hitters. And all he cost was Capellan? When Cody becomes a contributor in the rotation, this deal becomes an A+ - it is already an A-.

J.D. Closser to A's for Charles Thomas

Not a bad deal. C

 

Ben Hendrickson to Royals for Max St. Pierre

Can't really argue with this deal. C

 

Brady Clark and cash to Dodgers for Elmer Dessens

Was Dessens really worth Brady Clark? No. Clark's skills would be a big help for the Crew. D-.

 

Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, and Dave Krynzel to Diamondbacks for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino

Wouldn't Sharpie be nice to have in the rotation now? This deal gets an F.

Wilfrido Laureano to Phillies for David Bell

Bench player for a minor-leaguer. B.

 

Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz to Rangers for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Julian Cordero

The only good news is that the comp for losing Francisco Cordero was Jake Odrozzi and Seth Lintz. That could make this an A, but this gets an Incomplete.

 

Jorge de la Rosa to Royals for Tony Graffanino

Graffanino stepped in when Rickie got hurt and did well. B-.

 

Mike Adams to Mets for Geremi Gonzalez

This was a bust for the Crew. Adams blossomed elsewhere - and Geremi tanked. D+.

 

Enrique Cruz and cash to Rangers for Brian Shouse

Shouse's performance alone makes it an A. How well Heckathorn does for the Crew could make it an A+

 

Brian Wolfe to Blue Jays for Corey Koskie

Koskie's acquisition meant the Brewers released Russell Branyan. Half a season of Koskie, or keep 3TO around? I think we know the answer. D-.

 

The Gross, Clark, Adams, and Koskie trades were bad moves. The Doug Davis trade is probably the biggest disaster of the bunch. It was a bad idea at the time, and even worse as the years go by. Sharpie probably would have been a good guy to back up Gallardo. The bad trades have had a BIG effect this season in particular. Who wouldn't like Branyan at third, batting sixth this year? Or Gabe Gross spelling Cameron and Hart in CF and RF - with Tony Gwynn Jr. still in the system for depth? How about Mike Adams and Joe Thatcher in the bullpen for the last two years instead of Riske and Mota?

 

The Chris Cody trade was a VERY good move. As was acquiring Shouse, McClung, Durham and Linebrink. The Sabathia deal was also a good one.

[And That]

J.D. Closser to A's for Charles Thomas
Not a bad deal. C

Minor trade analysis of past years of the year.

[Ennder]

The Gross, Clark, Adams, and Koskie trades were bad moves. The Doug Davis trade is probably the biggest disaster of the bunch

 

There is some really results orientedness going on in this. The Koskie trade in no way, shape or form was a bad deal, he just got hurt and he really had little to do with Branyan since we ended up getting Branyan back and letting him go again anyway. Brady Clark basically was worthless after the trade so hard to say that was bad, it was junk for junk.

 

The Davis trade I just don't agree with others on how bad it was. Davis is not a very good pitcher and we would have only had him for one year(he signed an extension). So 1 year of Davis just isn't all that valuable.(he had a 4.72 xFIP that year). We lost the trade from a results standpoint but it really wasn't as bad as some people want to make it out to be. If Estrada and Vargas don't both get hurt and produce poorly after the injuries we might be looking at this as a win for all we know.

[jackalope02ca]

Doug Melvin is the best GM in the past 20 years for the Brewers. Why would anyone want to get rid of him. It's easy to sit in your armchair and question moves. It's a lot harder to actually do them. When you look at his trades he's won the majority of them. The team has drafted much better under him and yes he's done a few bad trades but who hasn't? If everything worked out every time we would all be GM's. The guy has shown he will do what it takes to get a player in the past with Linebrink and CC. That he didn't get a starter this year suggests there just wasn't one to have. Would anyone have been happy if we'd traded Escobar, Gamel, Salome and one of our best A ball pitchers for Cliff Lee or Halliday? That was basically the price looking at the Lee deal.

[MJLiverock]

Gotta agree with Ender's analysis. A lot of the guys the Brewers traded were mediocre players who brought back mediocre players. I think it is a little revisionist or wishful thinking to think some of these guys were difference makers or even good players when they were traded away.

 

The Clark for Dessens was basically garbage for garbage, Clark was out fo the league shortly after that trade and never produced anything meaningful with Dodgers. Davis was going to be a free agent and t the time it seemed the Brewers weren't going to sign him for what he wanted or was going to get and frankly isn't that great of pitcher. The Brewers had no catching and they got a pitcher in Vargas who was nearly the same as Davis. Eveland has never turned into anything other than a fringe major leaguer.

 

I like Gross for Butler. Gross was never going to be anything but a 4th outfielder and as we see the Brewers are desperate for pitching in the upper levels of the minors. Sure Butler is a risk(with upside at least for once) but you don't get sure thing prospects for 4th outfielders. No matter how many times people wish it to be true, Gross was never going to be a starting CFer because he just isn't that good defensively other than his arm.

 

I will always rail against the Kevin Mench treatement. Mench was basically a RH version of Jenkins and Gross who got unseemly love compared to Mench. Yost was the one who insisted on using Mench vs. RH pitching but over his career Mench hit LH better than Gross did vs. RH. He was platoon guy who for some reason Yost loved to play vs. RHers when he probably should have been working Hart into the lineup or playing Gross.

 

I believe Mike Adams had Tommy John surgery after pitching just 13 innings in 05 and 2 innings in 06. He missed the entire 2007 season. I just don't see how Adams is even a viable complaint. A GM isn't going to keep injury riddled middle relievers around forever hoping he can turn it around unless the guy is under a contract.

 

Koksie was a very good defensive 3B and a decent hitter until he had a freak injury. Branyan at the time had posted an OBP less than .330 in 2 out of the previous 3 years, was cut by 2 teams in 06, then 3 teams in 07 after putting up BA's below 200 and OBP's less than 300. He wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire.

[joepepsi]

The Gross, Clark, Adams, and Koskie trades were bad moves. The Doug Davis trade is probably the biggest disaster of the bunch. It was a bad idea at the time, and even worse as the years go by.

 

I don't know how people here can criticize the Davis trade when they also criticize Melvin for not trading players at peak value. Davis was about to get expensive and was coming off a rather poor season. He had a 4.91 ERA and was about to double his salary. I don't think it's Melvin's fault the trade worked out better for Arizona.

 

Brady Clark had 134 plate appearances after leaving the Brewers. So, they should have held onto him for that?

 

The Koskie trade was a great trade. But I guess the concussion is Melvin's fault?

 

And of course Melvin should have known that trading 27 year old career minor leaguer Mike Adams, he of the recent 5.75 AAA ERA was terrible idea. All he needed was to sit out two years, have TJ surgery, to become a good reliever.

 

I didn't like the Gross trade at the time. The short term effects have been negative. However, Butler looks pretty good and may soon be in the majors as a Dave Bush type middle rotation guy. I'd take that for a 4th OF'er any day.

 

Overall Melvin has done as well as any of the top GMs in recent years. As has been asked earlier in this topic, if not Melvin, the who?

[giffted1]

Gabe Gross to Rays for Josh Butler

Boy, is Gabe Gross missed in 2009. If the Brewers don't make this deal, they don't need to deal for Gerut. F.

A platoon outfielder for the closest thing we have to a pitching prospect in the upper minors. That was a great trade. Jack Z. gets a lot of credit for the Brewers success here, but it's interesting that the highest rated starters on the Power 50 in the upper minors, Butler and Cody, were guys that Melvin brought in.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't know how people here can criticize the Davis trade when they also criticize Melvin for not trading players at peak value. Davis was about to get expensive and was coming off a rather poor season. He had a 4.91 ERA and was about to double his salary. I don't think it's Melvin's fault the trade worked out better for Arizona.

 

What a contradictory statement you made their. How was dealing Davis after his worst year trading him at peak value? It was just another example of Melvin not understanding pitcher production. It was the only season in Davis's career he didn;t cimpletely outperform his periferils, and that was simply because Melvin fielded a brutal defense team that year.

 

Compounding the Davis deal was the idea of trading for a catcher who was consistently a terrible OBA guy, and known for attitude issues.

 

 

Brady Clark had 134 plate appearances after leaving the Brewers. So, they should have held onto him for that?

If Brady Clark was bad, why did Melvin give him a multi year contract even though he wassn't eligable for free agency. Melvin consistently wiffed giving multi year deals to players we already had under control. We had to eat contracts for guys like Clark, Turnbow, and Hall.

 

The Koskie trade was a great trade. But I guess the concussion is Melvin's fault?

How was it a great trade? Koskie was coming off a bad year, was injury prone, and was just average for us. He wasn"t better than Branyan, had a higher salary, and we had to give up a prospect coming off a strong AFL stint. Wolfe has a 3.33 career ERA. Branyan was awesome late in the season when he got regular ABs, and put the Padres in the Playoffs.

 

Bad, pointless trade.

 

 

Overall Melvin has done as well as any of the top GMs in recent years. As has been asked earlier in this topic, if not Melvin, the who?

How can you say Melvin has done well when this years team sucks. Jack Z built the Brewers, and should have been promted to GM after 2007.

[scrapiron]

"How was it a great trade? Koskie was coming off a bad year, was injury prone, and was just average for us. He wasn"t better than Branyan, had a higher salary, and we had to give up a prospect coming off a strong AFL stint. Wolfe has a 3.33 career ERA. Branyan was awesome late in the season when he got regular ABs, and put the Padres in the Playoffs.

 

Bad, pointless trade"

 

Branyan better than Koskie? I don't think so, especially at the time. I think you are letting Branyan's numbers this year cloud your judgement. Branyan should be proud of what he has done this year, but the dude is having a career year. And even with his numbers this year, his career OPS is .823, Koskie's at the time of his retirement .825. And I don't think Koskie's .833 OPS and 0.365 OBP when he got hurt in Milwaukee "average" either, plus Koskie was a better defender than Branyan IMO.

 

At the time the Brewers needed a stopgap at third. Koskie seemed to be the type of guy that would have been a perfect fit. He was up until the injury. I certainly wouldn't call the trade great taking everything into account. But up until Koskie's injury it certainly was. He was a valuable player in the line-up, one that was sorely missed when he went down.

 

Fault Melvin if you want for bringing in a player with an injury history. Yes, it was a risk and maybe it WAS bound to happen. But Koskie had over 250 Abs with the Brewers that year, and played well enough to show that as a player, he was what the Brewers needed at the time and you could certainly see Melvin's thought process.

 

Outside of the injury history, I don't think you can disparage Koskie too much as a ball player. He wasn't great, but he always hit the ball well, was a solid defender, and carried a fine 0.360+ OBP over his career, and if healthy, I'd certainly take he over Branyan.

[joepepsi]

If Brady Clark was bad, why did Melvin give him a multi year contract even though he wassn't eligable for free agency. Melvin consistently wiffed giving multi year deals to players we already had under control. We had to eat contracts for guys like Clark, Turnbow, and Hall.

Many posts in this topic criticize Melvin for not locking up players pre-arbitration. Many other posts criticize him for doing just that. If retrospect means you can have it both ways, then I guess he is a terrible GM.