Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[brewizard]

We were spoiled by CC Sabathia last season. He almost singlehandedly got us into the playoffs when our own pitching staff was not going to cut it - when our entire team seemed like it was purposefully trying to lose the playoff spot.

 

That said, the franchise has been eyeing 2007-2010 as the window of opportunity during Melvin's entire tenure. Melvin has consistently failed to get enough arms at any point to put the team over the top.

 

The 2007-2010 Brewers teams really ARE like Melvin's Texas teams - heavy on offense, subpar defense, and not nearly enough arms to do any good.

 

Up to now, I have largely admired the way Melvin (and Jack Z) has put together a contending team through drafting. But now I see that Melvin's stated strategy of always drafting the biggest bats is deeply flawed.

 

Yes, he was able to trade one of those away for a half a season with Sabathia, but I'd have to say that making the playoffs was a fluke. The manager was even fired!

 

Our lack of pitching depth became quite clear quite quickly in the first round of the playoffs, when our big bats went silent.

 

Being a Brewers fan is frustrating enough. Melvin's ways won't work.

[craig712]

While I dont agree with all of DM's decisions, I think to fire him would cause more grief for the fanbase. My guess is that a new GM would want to overhaul the team to fit his personal likings. What if we hired a guy who thinks Braun is too cocky, Prince is too fat or thinks something crazy of Yo and gives them up? We'd all be in a tizzy. I guess, you have to give him another season to see what he does. I wouldn't mind ditching Macha however.....

[Hate those Rodents]

Wasn't Capellan also supposed to be pretty high end. Either a closer or a top two starter?

[Fatter than Joey]

Wasn't Capellan also supposed to be pretty high end. Either a closer or a top two starter?

 

By the time Capellan got here, ATL gave up on him because he couldn't get his off-speed working -- I suspect the Brewers thought he could be a good RP -- but I don't think we thought he could start for us in a top-two fashion anytime soon.

[TooLiveBrew]

The 2007-2010 Brewers teams really ARE like Melvin's Texas teams - heavy on offense, subpar defense, and not nearly enough arms to do any good.

 

The Brewers' defense is among the best in the league, and iirc was last year as well.

 

I also don't see how you can say there aren't "nearly enough arms" -- is it Melvin's fault that Bush took a rocketed liner off his tricep? Or that Manny Parra didn't take the step forward to open the season that many/most people were expecting? I just don't agree with the criticism of Melvin's plan (or lack thereof). As best I can tell, here was his plan...

 

- Enter the season with a rotation of Gallardo/Bush/Parra/Looper/Suppan

- Beat the trade deadline frenzy (just like last year with CC) & acquire a top-tier SP, under salary control through at least 2010

 

When the three rumored main targets all were injured on the same day, there went that plan. To me, that is impossible to blame on Melvin. And if the Brewers are able to hang around, continue to see improvement from Parra, and get Bush back, there would be nothing but Ricciardi standing in the way of acquiring Halladay after the deadline. While I see that this is playing long odds, the season is by no means dead. Perhaps Ricciardi will realize he's not going to get the kind of deal he wanted/demanded, and that the offers won't exactly get better next season for even less service time of Roy Halladay.

 

And as far as the general criticism that Doug doesn't know how to identify pitching, I'd say Sabathia was a great target, as were Halladay & Peavy. Those were two of the rumored three targets that got hurt, Bedard being the third. I have to think that Bedard was option C.

[trwi7]

- Beat the trade deadline frenzy (just like last year with CC) & acquire a top-tier SP, under salary control through at least 2010

I think hoping to beat teams to acquire the best starters at the trade deadline is a pretty poor plan.

[bucks2281]

I think everybody can see that Peavy, Halladay, and Sabathia were/are awesome pitchers. And, I agree with trwi7...beating teams to acquire top-tier SP at the deadline just doesn't seem like a healthy plan for 2009 or into the future.

[RU Rah Rah]

I just don't agree with the criticism of Melvin's plan (or lack thereof). As best I can tell, here was his plan...

 

- Enter the season with a rotation of Gallardo/Bush/Parra/Looper/Suppan

- Beat the trade deadline frenzy (just like last year with CC) & acquire a top-tier SP, under salary control through at least 2010

I guess my criticisms of the plan would be:

 

1.) How would he think that the initial rotation would eat up most of the starts/innings for the season? Coming into the season, Gallardo had a total of 21 ML starts and 135 innings; Bush had been shaky enough at one point last season to have been shipped to AAA (although he did recover well subsequently); Parra had been mediocre in 166 IP last year; Looper had been average; and Suppan had been aging and just not very good. I don't know how he could look at that picture and feel basically confident -- especially since there was zero depth at AAA.

 

2.) DM has been around long enough to know that the acquisition of CC last year -- and his performace in Milwaukee -- was pretty much an aberration. It wasn't going to happen again -- if only because teams with deeper pockets and more prospects to deal would have sought to replicate his success from last year. Might he have realistically expected to pick up a decent 3-4 starter, like Bannister from KC? Sure. But that's about it.

 

Having said that, I still don't think DM should be fired, or tarred and feathered, or whatever. I think he made some disastrous non-decisions about the pitching staff that will impact the team in '09 and beyond, but his overall record in Milwaukee is still commendable.

[TooLiveBrew]

1.) How would he think that the initial rotation would eat up most of the starts/innings for the season?

 

Bush is a solid #3 or so in the NL, and I don't think most people expected Parra to not take a step forward heading into this season. Perhaps I am wrong on that.

 

 

2.) DM has been around long enough to know that the acquisition of CC last year -- and his performace in Milwaukee -- was pretty much an aberration.

 

The only likeness I intended in my theory was adding a pitcher before the deadline, which is what Melvin set out to do.

 

 

Might he have realistically expected to pick up a decent 3-4 starter, like Bannister from KC? Sure. But that's about it.

 

Like I said, he pretty clearly expected to pay to get Peavy, or Halladay, with Bedard as the 3d option.

 

 

I agree with trwi7...beating teams to acquire top-tier SP at the deadline just doesn't seem like a healthy plan for 2009 or into the future.

 

I am confused, and may have not worded my previous post correctly. By "beat the trade deadline frenzy" I mean target a SP well before the trade deadline nears/arrives, which is exactly what Melvin attempted. Iirc the 'frontline SP' rumors were in May.

[brewizard]

If Melvin's plan was to understaff the starting pitching rotation through half a season and then, hopefully, pick up another starting pitcher at the deadline, then we can currently see exactly how flawed such a plan is. I have been critical of Melvin's inability to find/sign any other arms during the offseason. Perhaps hindsight is telling us that Melvin should have traded Hardy in the offseason when his value was at its peak. My guess is that Hardy's performance THIS season may have been affected by NOT-knowing what will happen to him. I read that Hardy and Escobar, who are friends, were texting back and forth the other day wondering which one would get traded. That can't be good for either one of them: "Does the organization want me or not?!?"

 

I understand that the list of available pitchers this offseason was short. What more could Melvin have done? I don't know. But the organization - flush with big bats - is floundering on the rocky shores of an inferior rotation. If not Melvin's responsibility, than whose?

[splitterpfj]

Yes, Doug deserves some of the blame for the organization's lack of pitching depth. He decides who to trade, and who to trade for, and he has allowed a hole to develop in the organization - above A ball, there's almost no pitching at all.

 

It's not just Doug though, Jack Z could have focused on more arms prior to last year. Developing pitching will always be the hardest aspect of building a team - but not one advanced arm in the first round during Jack's tenure? Three HS arms in the first round, two of whom got hurt, with the other one almost all the way out now due to drug use. That's the heart of the matter right there...not enough arms to help in Milwaukee, or to use in trades for veteran pitching.

 

The drafts produced very little pitching, and Doug didn't deal to fill the holes.

 

When you're missing by this much...it's an organizational problem, not just the GM.

 

I think Doug has done an outstanding job as the GM here, but I could see this season costing him his job in the end. It's too bad, and I hope it doesn't happen, but if the team freefalls through these last two months, I could see Mark A. deciding to change drivers.

[DougJones43]

Why? Because he signed Corey Patterson.

 

Go Mariners.

[logan82]

And as far as the general criticism that Doug doesn't know how to identify pitching, I'd say Sabathia was a great target, as were Halladay & Peavy. Those were two of the rumored three targets that got hurt, Bedard being the third. I have to think that Bedard was option C.

 

To be honest I would determine the ability to identify pitching as being to identify borderline guys. The guys you name are all obviously talented guys that almost any fan could even identify as talented.

[Fatter than Joey]

- Beat the trade deadline frenzy (just like last year with CC) & acquire a top-tier SP, under salary control through at least 2010

 

If this truly was his plan, I don't see how anyone can claim his plan didn't fail

[TheCrew07]

If the idea Melvin has/had is to acquire rotation stop gaps every year the Brewers are in contention, I think that plan stinks. That's not identifying and developing pitching talent, that's doing what's obvious and easy. How hard is it to identify good pitchers after they win Cy Young awards? In fact the names we're always linked to are so obvious that the trades are typically suggested on this site prior national rumors. What about the first 3 months of that season, wouldn't winning a couple more games on the front of end of the season make the back end easier?

 

 

The Sabathia move was easily the safest move Melvin has made. He acquired a workhorse CY winner for talent he felt was redundant and expendable. How could any move possibly have less risk than that? The only people crazy enough to question that deal were people like me asking what about 2009, 2010, 2011...

[PeaveyFury]

If the idea Melvin has/had is to acquire rotation stop gaps every year the Brewers are in contention, I think that plan stinks.

 

For the record, Peavy would not have been a stop gap.

 

And we really don't know who the mysterious pitcher in the three-team deal that didn't happen was either, I guess.

[DuWayne Steurer]

For the record, Peavy would not have been a stop gap.

And we really don't know who the mysterious pitcher in the three-team deal that didn't happen was either, I guess.

 

Either Peavey or Hallady would have been nice additions, but not at the cost that it would take to acquire them. I think what people are getting at is if the "plan" any year we're in contention is to give up our top prospects, is a rotten plan for 2 reasons.

 

1.) There's no way to know who's going to be avaiable, and what the price will be. This season is a classic example. The defense of Doug is that "everyone who was available was hurt". But that's exactly WHY it's a terrible plan. They're pitchers! Pitchers get hurt! I read somewhere (maybe the Gallardo thread) that 65% of all MLB pitchers spent time on the DL last year.

 

2.) Let's say we're in a 4 year period where we expect to realistically contend. Giving up prospects, even 3 years out of 4 is going to really make a huge dent on your system, talent-wise. We didn't get to the playoffs because we traded Fielder, Hardy, Braun, Hart, Weeks, etc, we made them because we kept them. And yes, we traded for CC Sabathia. But if we trade Escobar and Gamel for Halladay this year (plus others) and then trade Lucroy and Laurie and Green for a pitcher 2 years from now, what core is going to make a playoff run 2-3 years after that?

I'm not against making the occasional trade of prospects to bolster the team, but that simply can't be the plan even 2 years in a row, or the whole philosophy that finally allowed us to put together a team to get to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years is shot.

 

NEEDING to get there last year was different. CC allowed us to get the proverbial "monkey off the back" and showed the casual fans that pay the bills that this isn't "the same old Brewers". Finally making the playoffs bought a lot of good will from those fans. Quite frankly, I'm disgusted by how many people who claim to be Hardcore Fans are already jumping off the bandwagon this year. They're not going to make the playoffs, they're probably not going to finish .500, but they still have a good core of talent. It just needs to be augmented in a better way than "I'll see what's available in July.

[brewizard]

Quite frankly, I'm disgusted by how many people who claim to be Hardcore Fans are already jumping off the bandwagon this year.

 

I'm disgusted at how an obvious need for the club - quality pitching with any depth - has gone unfulfilled for so long. Hanging on to "Fielder, Hardy, Braun, Hart, Weeks, etc," doesn't do us any good if the rotation is McClung, Burns, Vargas, and Dillard. A good team needs a balance between good arms and good bats. If the Brewers finish the season under .500, then we can reasonably predict that Melvin's window of competitiveness may have closed for good. He kept too many bats without acquiring enough viable arms through drafts or trades. He let the team get way out of balance during his window of opportunity. He stuck himself in a position where the only way to acquire pitching is to trade the only remaining prospects of value in the system. We can all see a thousand reasons why that is a bad position to be in.

 

I've seen so many Brewers teams finish under .500, that I feel like a hardcore fan. As a hardcore fan, I think it is a terrible shame that the Brewers organization, under Melvin, has let the rotation get this bad.

 

Now, I'm not saying 'fire Melvin.' I'm not jumping off any bandwagons... I'm just disappointed and more than a little heartsick that a decade's worth of careful drafting and team building has gotten us to here - a place where finishing a season at .500 looks like a legitimate goal again.

[jazzytrav]

The drafts produced very little pitching, and Doug didn't deal to fill the holes.

 

When you're missing by this much...it's an organizational problem, not just the GM.

 

I think Doug has done an outstanding job as the GM here, but I could see this season costing him his job in the end. It's too bad, and I hope it doesn't happen, but if the team freefalls through these last two months, I could see Mark A. deciding to change drivers.

Unfortunately, I have to agree. I'm hoping they can make a run, which can happen with any team that's still close to contention, but if not I wouldn't be surprised to see DM hit the road.

 

Pitching has to be the hardest thing for a small market team to acquire. It would be great to have a few CCs in the rotation, but we couldn't even afford one. He got Bush and Capuano from previous trades...Bush has been alright, Cappy gave us a few great seasons and then had injury problems which isn't very predictable.

 

I guess I would just rather be in the position that we're in than to throw all of our prospects out the window for a year or two of a pitcher that we can't afford. Once you get into September and into the playoffs, it seems like it's a lot about luck and what team gets hot at the right time. Heck, Suppan was the playoff MVP a few years ago. You just can't predict how players are going to respond. So rather than make a run at it once every 5 years, I would rather be in contention every year and hope for a little luck. DM so far has had us in contention every year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Now, I'm not saying 'fire Melvin.' I'm not jumping off any bandwagons... I'm just disappointed and more than a little heartsick that a decade's worth of careful drafting and team building has gotten us to here - a place where finishing a season at .500 looks like a legitimate goal again.

 

I don't disagree. Read my whole post. You'll clearly see that I'm not happy with the plan, IF the plan truly was to wait and see what was available mid-season. I'm saying that we've waited all these years, we had a playoff team, and now we're not even through the next season and people are bailing. I'm not optimistic about the season, but I'm not going to stop being a fan, and I'm not going to "divert my rooting interests elsewhere", that's all I was getting at.

 

But I surely hope our rotation is "fixed" before next opening day.

[endaround]

Well the plan was to get a second tier guy this past season but they whiffed on Lowe who didn't want to talk and Johnson who wanted to be in California. So they took the money got Hoffman and Looper. Now Looper has completely collapsed. Projections had him with FIPs in the range of 4.47-4.70, so basically what is considered a 3-4 starter. His FIP this year has been 5.78. So Looper pitchign so far below expectations looks to cost the Brewers 2-3 wins by himself.

[Baldkin]

What Doug did was assemble a 5-man staff with one very very good pitcher, one with a huge upside who pitched above average the previous year, and 3 middle of the road but ultra-durable starters.

 

What's happened is, the guy with the upside has been terrible, and two of the middle of the road starters both got hurt.

[brewizard]

Looper was never more than a stop-gap offseason acquisition. When Looper was the only starting pitcher to come to the team in the offseason, I know I had my own concerns about the competitive viability of the season. Nothing I've seen so far has changed my opinion on this matter.

[endaround]

Yes Looper was a stop gap but he's still performing 2-3 wins worse than expected. They thought they were getting 2-3 wins above replacement and instead ended up with replacement.

[RU Rah Rah]

Yes Looper was a stop gap but he's still performing 2-3 wins worse than expected. They thought they were getting 2-3 wins above replacement and instead ended up with replacement.

What's the team's record in Looper's starts?