Why Do Some Want to Fire Melvin?

[Ennder]

We haven't exactly had excess talent sitting around pre-season except for LaPorta so I find it hard to believe you know what Melvin will or will not do. Going into 2007 we had plenty of pitching depth, going into 2008 we had a solid looking rotation and an extra part to trade for a replacement if needed. Going into 2009 we had a shaky rotation with absolutely no depth but the only extra pieces we had were Hardy's replacement and our future 3B. The one argument I can get behind is that we should have maybe traded Hardy for a SP before the season started but even then I'm not sure Escobar was ready yet.

 

I would expect to see Hardy moved this off season for a pitcher personally, hopefully he gets hot at some point so we can get a better pitcher.

[cwolf2012]

lcbj68c, you are the most pessimistic poster on this entire board. Remind me, why do you still post here? You don't even seem like a Brewer fan.

 

I don't think I've seen you say one thing positive about the team, the manager, the farm system, or the GM in the last month.

[Fatter than Joey]

lcbj68c, you are the most pessimistic poster on this entire board.

 

False. He's not even close to the most pessimistic.

 

Remind me, why do you still post here? You don't even seem like a Brewer fan.

 

I'd be hard pressed to find a better Brewer fan than Luke.

 

I don't think I've seen you say one thing positive about the team, the manager, the farm system, or the GM in the last month.

 

The only team that has lost more games in July than the Brewers is SD. I think criticism is warranted.

[sgtcluels]

I'm not even sure Hardy can snag a good SP, we can maybe look at a 3 / 4 type player. I assume Looper is gone (I just read up on tRA+ and my god, is Looper bad) and with the price of SP being so high, we'll have to hope for a package of mid rotation SP plus high ceiling prospect in A ball or something.

[lcbj68c]

I find it hard to believe you know what Melvin will or will not do.

 

I don't unequivocally know. I'm only basing my guess/opinion on observations over the past 4 years. Your breakdown of year by year analysis goes to show that Melvin had really no good plan for viewing for the future when it came to the rotation. Continued backsliding with no clear attempt to make it better other than a mid-season rental that he was sure he was going to not resign and smartly so. As I've done many a times, I'm grateful for the way he built up to 2009, but me thinks he has no clear direction for 2010 and beyond, especially where pitching is concerned.

[lcbj68c]

Thanks FTJ, I didn't feel the need to respond to something simply because I have a difference of an opinion and am pessimistic and very terrified about the direction of this ballclub. But thanks for the kind words. I'd like some more vids of your son, btw. He still tearing up Central Wisconsin running backs?

[lcbj68c]

I'm not even sure Hardy can snag a good SP, we can maybe look at a 3 / 4 type player. I assume Looper is gone (I just read up on tRA+ and my god, is Looper bad) and with the price of SP being so high, we'll have to hope for a package of mid rotation SP plus high ceiling prospect in A ball or something. ~~ SgtCluels

 

I agree, while there is an active discussion about Hardy in trade forums, I'd just like to say that I think the best time to trade Hardy was this past offseason. Escobar was seemingly ready, and any trading partner would have two years of Hardy instead of just one. Now, baring a package, the best Melvin can get is a back end of the rotation starter.

[sgtcluels]

Unfortunately I think you are right. I was hoping for a Hardy for SP Trade during the off season, Escobar may not have a bat yet, but that will develop in time. The way Hardy is swinging the bat, he's deflating any real hitting loss by going to Escobar.. while at the same time devaluing himself for trading.

 

I miss Ben Sheets....

[TheCrew07]

The more I think about the Overbay trade the last year or so, the more I dislike it. I would have loved our rotation coming into last season with Sheets, Marcum, Yo, and Parra.

The Jays would have laughed at us if we asked for Marcum for Overbay though. We got a good deal by getting Bush as it is, there is no way we get their better prospects for a mediocre 1B.

Maybe in your opinion... but they gave us Bush (a 2nd round pick '02 out of Wake Forest), Gross (1st round pick '01 out of Auburn), and Jackson (1st round pick '04 out of Texas A&M). Granted Bush and Jackson weren't "upside" picks like the Brewers tend to make, but they were marquee players from 3 previous drafts, and Jackson was the 1st round pick the year before. Marcum was a 3rd round pick in 2003 out of Missouri State, McGowan was a 1st round selection out of HS in 2000. Marcum's fastball is only a tick better than Bush's, he was an 89-91 MPH kind of guy, but I love his change, and the Brewers love change-ups. McGowan is your prototypical projectable pitcher... he has frame, velocity, and stuff. It took him a while to reign in his control, but I liked what he had going on last season. The Brewers have had success simplifying the mechanics of pitchers like that in the past.

 

Marcum's ceiling after developing his change was that of a #2, I think he's a real solid #3 at his worst. Bush and Jackson were 3s at best based on stuff, more likely 4s (pitchability aside). It's not like Melvin would have been asking for Lincecum, he took the guy with the most MLB experience he could get in Bush and Toronto's previous #1 pick. I think at that time the trade was made Overbay was your typical proven commodity and he could have acquired Marcum or McGowan for that package, remember that Melvin also sent a Brewer's MiLB pitcher in that deal. Again Melvin got the previous year's first round pick in Jackson, I don't think it's a stretch to think he could have landed Marcum or McGowan if he'd gone a different direction. I'm not sure if it was Melvin, the scouts, or both that missed the boat in that Toronto trade, but I believe that both players I mentioned were there for the taking if we wanted them.

[monty57]

Ding, Ding, Ding!! But there just was nobody available is the same argument you'll here concerning #1 or #2 type pitchers. That, or it's too cold or...free agents don't come to Milwaukee....or point to one rumoured argument that C.C. was offered 100M, but he turned it down.

 

I think that one of the worst signings (Suppan) actually had a net benefit of helping make us a team free agents looked at. It's not nearly to the extent of Reggie White for the Packers, but Suppan was a sought after FA that chose Milwaukee, and in the recent years, we've slowly felt the ice melt around free agents' feelings towards becoming a Brewer. I agree with you that this should no longer be an arguement against FA signings anymore. As far as the "rumored argument that CC was offered 100M," Melvin himself said the offer was out there. He didn't verify the number, but he did verify the offer. It did, to some extent, hamstring us from making an offer to any other FAs until CC had formally accepted the Yankees' offer, which could be why we had to settle on Looper. To Doug's credit, he tried to sign Randy Johnson, who chose to play on the West Coast, closer to his home and he apparently approached Lowe, who didn't want to play in Milwaukee.

 

People argue that another GM will take us back into the days of pre-Melvin.

 

For me, it's more of a worry than an arguement. We had some bad GMs, and now things are so much better than they were, that I'd hate to rock the boat simply to rock the boat. It's possible we'd find someone better, but Melvin's done a good job and there is a good chance any replacement wouldn't be as good, and could be much worse. I would argue that most of the detractors think Melvin has done a fine job overall, and are speculating that he won't do a good job in the future, which to me seems a little illogical.

 

Well, what exactly is going to be the arguments when it's 2012, the crop of minor league talent doesn't blossom as expected, the wave of great hitters (minus Braun) are too expensive to keep and our window is gone. Without any change in attitude towards pitching, this team wins around 72 games in 2009, 2010, 2011 and we'll be right back to the pre-Melvin days. It's been great what's he's done, but it's time for him to adapt and change to the ecomony of the Brewers today (85M) and change in the way other GM's are building successful ballclubs if he wants to get over the top.

 

I think the theory with the young pitchers is that since they are at risk of injury/flameout, we should stockpile so many of them that some of them have to work out. We have quite a few pitchers from rookie ball to Brevard County that even if some of them flame out or become injured, some of them have to pan out. If they put together three full squads of above average pitchers in the low minors and none of them make it to the bigs, then we absolutely need a complete overhaul of our entire management, including medical staff and every minor league coach and instructor. I'd prefer to assume that the probable is going to happen rather than making a rash decision (like firing a good GM) based on an improbable occurance.

 

As far as the hitters becoming too expensive, I've touched on this in previous posts, but I think Gamel and Escobar need to be given Braun-type contracts. In my opinion, it's a shame that the trend of offering these long term deals to pre-arby players came a year or two too late for our "first wave" of talented hitters. Fortunately, Melvin & Co. have done a fine job of filling up the minors with position players to take over for most every hitter we'll lose, with the pronounced exception of Prince Fielder. I would love to see them lock him up for a few extra years, but I don't think the economics of baseball and the presence of Scott Boras will allow for that to happen.

 

If the goal is to be status-quo, just good enough for 75 win team and hope to god it continues to draw 2.75M fans, then Melvin is your man.

 

Again, we have a good farm system and talent at the major league level. I'd actually lilke to see us sell, but if we play out the year with the current roster, we're better then we've been playing lately, and should end up with 85 or so wins. Match that with our recent years:

 

2008 - 90 wins

2007 - 83 wins

2006 - 75 wins

2005 - 81 wins

2004 - 67 wins

2003 - 68 wins

2002 - 56 wins

2001 - 68 wins

 

and I think Melvin has turned us from a bottom dweller into at least a perennial .500 or better team with a shot at the playoffs in most years. Our incoming talent suggests that we can be as good or better in the coming years than we have been in the recent years, especially if he makes some wise moves in the near future. First, trade Hardy+ for a good, young starter to make us a better contender next year and into the future. Second, if at all possible, sign Fielder for a couple more years (easier said than done). If he will not sign, he unfortunately will probably need to be traded for a boatload of young talent this offseason, or for a little less talent the following offseason. Third, lock up Yo, Gamel and Escobar so they will be around as the next group of young talent comes through. Fourth, continue to lock up top prospects while they are pre-arby. Finally, continue to stockpile high draft picks to keep the minor leagues chock full of talent.

[CWSOmaha]

I think Melvin has turned us from a bottom dweller into at least a perennial .500 or better team with a shot at the playoffs in most years.

 

But the burning question is.....can he take us any further than that??!! Or will we become the Twins of the NL??

[Big Cat Dad]

For my 2000th post all I'll say is.. look at what Melvin left us for 2009 and 2010.

 

Guess I should get http://www.firedougmelvin.com up and running.

Unbelievable. UeckerAddict hit the nail on the head.

 

The funny part to me is that people basically want Melvin to burn the organizational depth so they can feel better for the next two months, and then just go back to complaining for the next 2 or 3 seasons.

 

I'm glad we're on a skid.....if we actually trade for anyone and give up prospects I'll flip out. We aren't good.....pretty plain and simple.

[AJAY]

I am not saying Melvin should be fired, but I am personally tired of his offensive philosophies. I wouldn't mind a GM who values more high average hitters who are TOUGH outs and put more stress on opposing pitchers. I am tired of streaky guys with medicore batting averages, medicore on-base percentages, and not enough power to make up for it.

 

Do we really hit enough three-run homeruns to justify this type of a lineup?

[logan82]

AJAY wrote:

I am tired of streaky guys with medicore batting averages, medicore on-base percentages, and not enough power to make up for it.

The statement about our offense seems pretty illogical. We are 6th in the NL in OBP, 3rd in SLG and 4th in OPS. The offense is not the problem. Our pitching on the other hand sucks.

[naivin]

I wouldn't fire him necessarily, but it dawned on me this AM that this is the second year in a row that we have been unable to come up with 5 SPs late in the season. Has Attanasio not gotten involved to get CC, last year would have been as bad as what they are dealing with right now, maybe worse. Obviously every team has injuries. Looking no further than the NL Central, Lilly, Dempster, Zambrano, Carpenter, Lohse, have all spent time on the DL. Those teams have also had their share of guys not performing to expectations, but but they have survived, and have blown past the Brewers. The Brewers have floundered with regularity. I understand pitching is expensive and hard to find, but that points straight to the GM and an inability to put together any sort of pitching depth, not just in one season, but pretty much throughout his career.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin does deserve a lot of blame for this pitching staff. I thought this rotation was garbage to begin the season and that has shown to be true. Parra falling apart was unexpected as was the Bush injury but is anyone at all surprised that Suppan and Looper are bad. Doug needs to start focusing more on young power pitchers with upside; enough of these soft tossers like Suppan, Looper and Bush.

 

This staff reminds me of the teams Melvin had in Texas where they had great offenses and no pitching. Back then his staff ace was John Burkett who is basically a better version of Suppan. I fear that Melvin may not have the ability to prpoerly evaluate pitching and if that is true we are in big trouble not just this year but for the forseeable future. I was happy to see us drafting more pitchers the last few years but so far I dont see any sure things. On a side note didnt we draft Jeffress over Drabek or were they in different drafts? Kyle Drabek is exactly the type of young power arm that this organization lacks.

[TheCrew07]

I'm splitting hairs here, but Jeffress is exactly the type of power arm every organization would love to have, Jeffress throws much harder than Drabek and 98% of the pitchers in the game at any level... too bad his personal issues keep getting in the way of his baseball career.

[crewcrazy]

This staff reminds me of the teams Melvin had in Texas where they had great offenses and no pitching. Back then his staff ace was John Burkett who is basically a better version of Suppan.

 

It's tough to judge the old Rangers staffs on the traditional numbers, but I don't think there's any way you could call Burkett the Rangers' "ace"...looking back on baseball-reference, Rick Helling and Aaron Sele performed better in 1998 and 1999 and Ken Hill was very good in 1996.

 

Helling:

1998 -- 20-7, 4.41 ERA, 109 ERA+

1999 -- 13-11, 4.84 ERA, 106 ERA+

 

Sele:

1998 -- 19-11, 4.23 ERA, 113 ERA+

1999 -- 18-9, 4.79 ERA, 107 ERA+

 

In comparison, Suppan in Milwaukee:

2007 -- 12-12, 4.62 ERA, 97 ERA+

2008 -- 10-10, 4.96 ERA, 87 ERA+

2009, so far -- 5-8, 5.27 ERA, 80 ERA+

 

I wouldn't disagree with the Suppan/Burkett comparison, but to say that Burkett was the best pitcher on those Texas teams that went to the playoffs isn't entirely fair.

 

On a side note (and I'm talking to everyone here), let's avoid questioning the fandom of other posters here. We're all here at Brewerfan because we presumably like this team (other than those who come here and are open about their affiliations with other teams, who are more than welcome to contribute). We all like this team. We all like talking about this team with other fans. Some users may disagree with you, and some may express themselves differently than you would. This does not mean they're not a fan. I realize the team is playing poorly right now, but frustrations should not be taken out on other posters. Let's treat each other with respect, and try to have a civil debate.

[AJAY]

AJAY wrote:

I am tired of streaky guys with medicore batting averages, medicore on-base percentages, and not enough power to make up for it.

The statement about our offense seems pretty illogical. We are 6th in the NL in OBP, 3rd in SLG and 4th in OPS. The offense is not the problem. Our pitching on the other hand sucks.

I do agree that the pitching is obviously the bigger problem. But I wouldn't mind a change in offensive philosophy either. I think a lot of those offensive stats you pointed out are skewed thanks to Fielder and Braun. But I just don't see anything exciting from the rest of the lineup (other than Counsell and McGehee who have both done a nice job). I don't blame Doug Melvin for the decline of Hardy and Hart because you cannot predict something like that. But I do want to see Melvin mix in a few more "professional hitters" who add some balance and more consistency to the lineup. I just think having some more .300 hitters adds a little more life to the offense and puts more pressure on opposing pitchers.

[logan82]

AJAY wrote:

I do agree that the pitching is obviously the bigger problem. But I wouldn't mind a change in offensive philosophy either. I think a lot of those offensive stats you pointed out are skewed thanks to Fielder and Braun. But I just don't see anything exciting from the rest of the lineup (other than Counsell and McGehee who have both done a nice job). I don't blame Doug Melvin for the decline of Hardy and Hart because you cannot predict something like that. But I do want to see Melvin mix in a few more "professional hitters" who add some balance and more consistency to the lineup. I just think having some more .300 hitters adds a little more life to the offense and puts more pressure on opposing pitchers.

You could really say that any team's statistics are brought up by their superstars. Cardinals/Pujols for example. Other than Kendall, we have pretty good hitters through the whole lineup. Almost all players are streaky except for maybe the superstars. Our overall offensive stats include Hardy playing a lot of games at a very low level and including Kendall in our lineup a lot. Really outside of Kendall, all of our hitters are pretty solid.(maybe Hart, not sure what we have with him)

[AJAY]

You could really say that any team's statistics are brought up by their superstars. Cardinals/Pujols for example. Other than Kendall, we have pretty good hitters through the whole lineup. Almost all players are streaky except for maybe the superstars. Our overall offensive stats include Hardy playing a lot of games at a very low level and including Kendall in our lineup a lot. Really outside of Kendall, all of our hitters are pretty solid.(maybe Hart, not sure what we have with him)

I don't disagree with anything you said. Hitters are always streaky by nature, and all the guys you mentioned are all solid when looked at individually. But the question I have is whether their hitting styles complement each other well enough when evaluated as a group. For instance, Mike Cameron is a very solid player. But I wouldn't mind having a high average hitter take his place next season because I think that brings a different element to our offense (which I believe is missing right now).

[logan82]

I think the most important thing is getting on base ahead of Braun and Fielder. BA isn't anywhere near as important as OBP. We currently have 4 guys at the top of our lineup hitting .300 or over. I don't think you will find to many teams like that. Hardy under performing, Kendall being Kendall, and Hart teasing us with talent are hurting us a bit. I am not sure how a "professional hitter" would help since he would more than likely be a worse overall hitter.

 

To answer your question, no, I don't think we need a different type of hitter. We need good hitters with decent OBP. Doesn't matter if they hit or walk for that OBP.

[MNBrew]

I think the most important thing is getting on base ahead of Braun and Fielder. BA isn't anywhere near as important as OBP. We currently have 4 guys at the top of our lineup hitting .300 or over. I don't think you will find to many teams like that. Hardy under performing, Kendall being Kendall, and Hart teasing us with talent are hurting us a bit. I am not sure how a "professional hitter" would help since he would more than likely be a worse overall hitter.

I'm entering this discussion quite late, but I tend to side with Ajay. OPS is a solid, useful stat, but I can't buy into as a perfectly accurate gauge of the degree to which someone is a "good" hitter because OPS is so skewed by power. Take a screwy but legit example like Tony Gwynn (Sr.) & Russell Branyan: .847 career OPS for Gwynn vs. .826 for Branyan. Branyan gets a lotta love on this site, but could you realistically argue that Branyan's almost as good a hitter as Sr. Gwynn because they're only 21 pts. apart for career OPS? I have a feeling that plenty of OPS-biased folks could almost start believing that foolish notion to be true.

 

With the '08 Brewers' feast-or-famine nature, the feast periods were amazing, but the famines were compounded to high levels of ugliness by having so many all-or-nothing hitters going cold for long stretches at the same time. A greater variety to the makeup of the lineup MAY have given the Brewers a better chance. In fact, I'd contend that if you could combine this year's hitters' performances with last year's rotations' performances, that combination well may have the Brewers comfortably atop the NL Central. The better contact & better OBP of this year's team would've helped last year's team greatly.

 

Reverting to the original topic of the thread, I don't think you can blame too much of this mess on Doug Melvin. Most of the pitchers (especially!) just aren't playing up to their abilities. Hitters with last names starting with H are having off years. There are plenty of positives this team has going for it. Take, for instance, that now with Lopez, there are really 5 .300 hitters on this team (Lopez, Counsell, Braun, Fielder, & McGehee). Melvin was working darn hard to get good FA pitchers to come to Milwaukee. He did get Hoffman (and how much worse would the record be now if it weren't for him!). CC & Burnett took NYYankee money. Randy Johnson wanted to pitch in CA. Smoltz was coming off an injury and wanted optimal odds to get another ring, so took Boston's deal. Sheets expected an extension to be offered in ST of '08, was upset that it wasn't offered, and had already determined that there was no way he was returning to the Brewers -- and that was before he was injured -- then had surgery and still stuck the Brewers with the tab. . . . I can't remember who else was out there.

 

The fact is, Melvin & the Brewers were making solid trade efforts over the past few weeks and in the offseason. Having money to spend or good assets doesn't assure a logical match or that the best FA fits will come to your team. Sure, the Brewers do have the goods to net Halladay. But it's not just what you get, but also what you have to give up to get it, that needs to be considered. You can't gut your whole organization for possibly only 2 months of a stud pitcher (w/ a trade & w/o an extension, Halladay may well exercise his right to FA THIS YEAR!) in multiple years since the cupboard isn't as plentiful as it was last year this time.

 

I really don't think I'm slurpin' hard on the Kool-Aid. There are ideals and then there are realities. Last year those July player acquisition ideals became the reality and still only barely paid off with a playoff spot. You need to be optimistic yet realistic about your present, constantly aggressive about how to improve the team, and still protective of your future. I do trust Doug Melvin, and will continue to do so as long as, short of extreme turnarounds, Suppan & Hall aren't here past the ends of 2010.

[Never Outhustled]

On a side note didnt we draft Jeffress over Drabek or were they in different drafts? Kyle Drabek is exactly the type of young power arm that this organization lacks.

The irony here was Drabeck, not Jeffress, fell in the draft because of off the field issues.

[logan82]

I'm entering this discussion quite late, but I tend to side with Ajay. OPS is a solid, useful stat, but I can't buy into as a perfectly accurate gauge of the degree to which someone is a "good" hitter because OPS is so skewed by power.

 

If you read the previous post it was focused on OBP, not OPS.

 

Take a screwy but legit example like Tony Gwynn (Sr.) & Russell Branyan: .847 career OPS for Gwynn vs. .826 for Branyan. Branyan gets a lotta love on this site, but could you realistically argue that Branyan's almost as good a hitter as Sr. Gwynn because they're only 21 pts. apart for career OPS? I have a feeling that plenty of OPS-biased folks could almost start believing that foolish notion to be true.

 

Our discussion used all the slash stats. If I was looking at Gwynn vs Branyan I would be looking at OBP/SLG/OPS not just OPS. I rarely look at OPS without looking at the other 2. I highly doubt anybody would use only OPS to argue who was a better hitter especially when 1 point of OBP is considered to be worth 1.8-2 points of SLG. OPS is quick and a little dirty, but generally pretty accurate and easy to calculate. I would prefer wOBA.