Low Point of the Season

[MJLiverock]

I didn't have high hopes for the Brewer pitching staff to begin with so I am not surprised by the record at this point. I just don't want to see more stop gap solutions brought in for the pitching staff and given the asking price this year I think that is all Doug is going to be able to bring in.

I am extremely disappointed in the lack of ability to develop any reliable starting pitching outside of Gallardo over the last 5 -7 years. The Brewers need to conserve their trade chips for a guy with a good chance at upside who can be under team control for a couple years at least. I don't want to trade for more pitchers relying on smoke/mirrors/duct tape to hold their numbers down or guys who guys coming off career years/half seasons who we pray can keep it up. Guys like that are fine for 4th or 5th starters but running a rotation filled with them isn't going to work in the long run. I guess that takes me out of the liking any trades for Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, or whatnot unless the asking price is basically nothing. That may mean just riding out this season and working a big trade in the offseason but I am fine with that. The pitching staff needs an overhaul.

The Brewer staff ranks 14th in ERA (out of 16 NL teams), 16th in HR allowed, 15th in SLG against, 13th in OBP against, 14th in WHIP, 12th in K/BB ratio.

[JJHardy7]

What in the world would makes you think that "chances are" he'd demand a trade after the season? He's never indicated at all that he would do that if traded. It's possible, but it's way more unlikely than likely. On top of that, I'm sure that Melvin and Co. would find out from him or his agent how likely that scenario would be before trading for him. Again, the reason why Melvin is looking at guys like Lee and Halladay is as much for next season than this season. If he doesn't think that Halladay will stick around then he's not going to trade for him.

 

He has the right to based on his contract. You are right Melvin could find out, but you can't just assume the trade would be for next season. Since he's a veteran and signed a long-term contract he has the right to essentially opt out of it after this season if he's traded. That's just the fact as far as I know it, but I'll admit I don't know what reference or whatever it is.

[chuckiehacks]

What in the world would makes you think that "chances are" he'd demand a trade after the season? He's never indicated at all that he would do that if traded. It's possible, but it's way more unlikely than likely. On top of that, I'm sure that Melvin and Co. would find out from him or his agent how likely that scenario would be before trading for him. Again, the reason why Melvin is looking at guys like Lee and Halladay is as much for next season than this season. If he doesn't think that Halladay will stick around then he's not going to trade for him.

 

He has the right to based on his contract. You are right Melvin could find out, but you can't just assume the trade would be for next season. Since he's a veteran and signed a long-term contract he has the right to essentially opt out of it after this season if he's traded. That's just the fact as far as I know it, but I'll admit I don't know what reference or whatever it is.

 

He also has a no-trade clause, so if he really didn't think Milwaukee was a contender he could just veto the trade in the first place.

[RU Rah Rah]

another thing, thanks to Ru Rah Rah, came to mind: this is the same as the 2005-2007 season, as the Brewers are one of many teams in the hunt for 1 or 2 playoff spots. The only difference is that in years past, Milwaukee was at the bottom of the list and had to climb over 7-8 teams. This year, they're near the top and only need to climb over 1-2 teams. (okay, maybe not right this minute. But it's the concept.)

I see what you're saying, but I don't know that they really are near the top. In the Central, they are behind STL, the Cubs, and Astros; for the Wild Card, they are bunched up with 5 teams who are 3-4 games behind the Rockies and the Giants.

 

None of those deficits are insurmountable, though, especially since it's not even August yet. There's still plenty of time to sort things out.

[brewizard]

The team isn't as good as they were last year. They had better arms last year. Yes, Hart, Hardy and Hall could be better. Week's injury is a major bummer. But everybody knew that losing Sheets and CC was going to hurt the rotation. The fact that we are still above .500 (barely) says a lot about the offense. Even with Hart, Hardy and Hall being less-than-stellar, this offense is good. It is the rotation that is the big problem.

 

That is Melvin's fault. No way around it.

[topper09er]

Yo and Sheets are pretty close, (Sheets 3.38 FIP '08, Yo 3.96 FIP '09)

as of now Parra has been worse than last year (4.16 FIP '08, 4.58 FIP '09)

Suppan has been better than last year (5.51 FIP '08, 5.14 FIP '09)

Bush has been worse than last year (4.93 FIP '08, 5.81 FIP '09)

Obviously CC is much better than Looper.

 

The questions is, what should Melvin have done? What FA should he have signed or what trade should be ahve made? It easy to say our staff is bad but theres not too many more options. And as you said the H boys have been terrible.

[davego]

While I think it's fair to say this team isn't as good as 2008, but hard to blame DM for Rickie getting hurt and JJ not being able to hit. Hart isn't as suprising; that I agree with. I don't think it would be fair to perdict Hall being this bad.

 

Not sure what other pitching options really were available. Hoffman has been some help, as well as Coffy. DM has to get some credit for that.

[azcheesehead]

Halladay won't opt out after a season. If he comes to Milwaukee he knows that he has young, front line talent in Braun and Fielder for at least a year. If he in fact doesn't want to come via a trade, he simply won't. He has a no trade clause. It would make NO sense for him to come into Milwaukee and then opt out. He knows what he's getting in to if he comes. He's gone after a year and a half regardless.

[sauveb]

Halladay isn't coming to Milwaukee. We might as well get used to it.

[chuckiehacks]

Halladay isn't coming to Milwaukee. We might as well get used to it.

 

Well, then I guess it's settled. Melvin has confirmed interest, Ash has been seen at Halladay's starts, several well-respected national reporters have discussed the Brewers as a possible destination. I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but I don't think you can absolutely say it won't.

[BadgerFan]

Started out 26-15. Since then, 22-32.

 

Obviously the three big differences between this year and last are no CC, lack of production off the bench and lack of production from Hardy. Last year on this day, Hardy was hitting .294 with an OPS of .890!!! And the bench of Kapler, Durham, Counsell and Branyan is a tad more productive than the automatic outs we have coming off the bench now in Gerut, Hall and Catalanatto.

 

When comparing the performance of this year's team to last year's, outside of the differences mentioned above, everything else is pretty similar or in favor of this year's club. Makes you wonder if getting Halladay might get us over the top after seeing what a stud like CC did last year.

 

One interesting note after looking at last year's results...the Brewers when 4-15 from September 1st to the 20th. I don't remember them being that awful. I guess that was the "low point" of last year, hopefully it turns out the same!

[pebadger]

Making the playoffs covered up the stink of the end of the season pretty well.

 

As of tonight the Crew is in 4th place in the loss column. I don't think we see the low point until the team is under .500 and, despite picking it up a bit against poor arms in Pittsburgh, Braun dipping under .300 with his BA.

[azcheesehead]

Halladay isn't coming to Milwaukee. We might as well get used to it.

 

Well, then I guess it's settled. Melvin has confirmed interest, Ash has been seen at Halladay's starts, several well-respected national reporters have discussed the Brewers as a possible destination. I'm not saying it will definitely happen, but I don't think you can absolutely say it won't.

And Melvin also said that Gamel and Escobar are as untouchable as untouchable gets. He isn't coming. They're asking for Kershaw and Ethier from LA, Happ and Drabek from Philly.....which is a HUGE load. I wonder what they'll want from the Brewers. My guess is a combo of Yo and Escobar/Gamel. Riccardi has said that Halladay will stay a Blue Jay. Everything is tipping overwhelmingly that he WON'T be a Brewer.

[Jay Zahn]

I am extremely disappointed in the lack of ability to develop any reliable starting pitching outside of Gallardo over the last 5 -7 years. The Brewers need to conserve their trade chips for a guy with a good chance at upside who can be under team control for a couple years at least. I don't want to trade for more pitchers relying on smoke/mirrors/duct tape to hold their numbers down or guys who guys coming off career years/half seasons who we pray can keep it up. Guys like that are fine for 4th or 5th starters but running a rotation filled with them isn't going to work in the long run. I guess that takes me out of the liking any trades for Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, or whatnot unless the asking price is basically nothing. That may mean just riding out this season and working a big trade in the offseason but I am fine with that. The pitching staff needs an overhaul.

I agree; I mentioned it on another thread. Other than Sheets they had literally nothing for a decade. Not even a LOOGY or guy who lasted in the rotation a couple of years. This year it really caught up to them. Ironically when they've finally gotten some production from Gallardo and Stetter, and Villanueva and Parra were at least candidates to have good years. But before that it's been a patch job every year. We had to trade good regulars to get Bush and Capuano as part of packages, and Cordero for the bullpen. Davis and Turnbow were scrap heap guys we were lucky to get a couple of years out of. Also, because the Brewers never generate an internal closer candidate, they have to go through Turnbow and Cordero and Gagne and Torres and now Hoffman, who will also need to be replaced in a year or so. It adds up.

[brewizard]

Well said, Jay Zahn. Perhaps I oversimplified things when I said it is ALL Melvin's fault. The Brewers have an institutionalized pitching development problem. It is biting them hard right now. Weeks' injury, Kendall's Hardy's, Hart's and Hall's general poor play is also not Melvin's fault.

 

However, the bench is weak and meek compared to last years' bench. And Melvin really didn't find suitable pitching help in the off-season. He was willing to throw big money at Sabathia, but unwilling and unable to land anything more than Looper.

 

That IS Melvin's fault.

[Baldkin]

Who should he have signed, other than Looper?

 

"He should've done something else" is not a constructive argument. What should he have done differently?

 

Here's a list of the Free Agent Pitchers from last year: http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/feature/?id=11698

 

Remember, had CC signed here, Cameron would've been traded and any hope of signing Hoffman would've gone out the window as well.

[brewdude15]

Randy Wolf is the only other name I think we could've signed. He comes somewhat cheap (1 yr, 5 mil) and is having a good year for LA. Right now, he'd be the #2 start behind Yo.

[zzzmanwitz]

Is he that much better than Looper? That is what we are comparing against. You might say yes, but before the season started, who would you have rather had?

[nate82]

Randy Wolf is the only other name I think we could've signed. He comes somewhat cheap (1 yr, 5 mil) and is having a good year for LA. Right now, he'd be the #2 start behind Yo.

I don't think Wolf wanted to leave the west coast like Johnson. The Brewers would have had to over pay for him that 1yr 5 mil would have been more like 2 yr 12-15 mil.

[Invader3K]

I can't be mad at Melvin for not signing anyone better than Looper, since there didn't seem to be much out there. However, I do feel I can be somewhat irritated that a trade hasn't happened yet, since it should have been obvious you couldn't expect Gallardo and Parra to carry an otherwise mediocre rotation all year.

[zzzmanwitz]

you couldn't expect Gallardo and Parra to carry an otherwise mediocre rotation all year.

 

I think Bush was expected to be in there an put up an ERA in the low 4s.

[Invader3K]

Yes, but let's be honest. Two young pitchers, neither of whom had ever pitched a full season in MLB as an SP, and three guys projected to put up an ERA somewhere between 4-5.00 did not look like a playoff contending rotation.

[zzzmanwitz]

I agree that it is a risk to expect 2 young pitchers to carry the staff, but as has been stated before (or in another thread), there weren't many pitchers that the Brewers could get besides CC and Looper (who they did sign). There just wasn't that much available this offseason that the Brewers could legitimately compete for.

 

For what it's worth...

 

Phillies

Joe Blanton - 4.24 ERA, 4.55 FIP

Cole Hamels - 4.72 ERA, 3.90 FIP

Jamie Moyer - 5.58 ERA, 5.49 FIP

Brett Myers - 4.66 ERA, 6.20 FIP

J.A. Happ - 2.68 ERA, 4.36 FIP

 

Brewers

Yovanni Gallardo - 3.28 ERA, 3.97 FIP

Jeff Suppan - 4.71 ERA, 5.59 FIP

Braden Looper - 4.64 ERA, 5.64 FIP

Manny Parra - 6.37 ERA, 4.58 FIP

Dave Bush - 5.67 ERA, 5.81 FIP

 

The Phillies staff is not that much better than the Brewers and they are the clear favorites to win the division, and they won the WS last year. With the offense the Brewers have, a great rotation isn't a necessity, just one that keeps them in the game.

[TheCrew07]

If you think Hamel's true talent is that of a 4.72 ERA pitcher then you might be on to something. I have no problem thinking that age may have finally caught up to Moyer, but Hamels is still an Ace pitcher. Philly has the better staff and the better offense.

[zzzmanwitz]

If you go pitcher by pitcher, the phillies and brewers have very similar staffs.

 

Hamels/Gallardo

Moyer/Suppan

Blanton/Looper

Happ/Parra

Myers/Bush

 

Other than taking Hamels over Gallardo, there isn't one definitive pick of pitchers.