escobar or gamel??

[Hate those Rodents]

How old was Hall when he started to regress? How about Lugo? Please, let's allow Escobar a chance to be the answer rather than give Hardy an obnoxious amount of money.

[TooLiveBrew]

How is Hardy possibly worth that much per year right now? Seems like he should get about $4-5 million per year at most.

Fangraphs estimated his monetary value as follows --

 

2007: $18.6M

2008: $22.2M

 

And so far in 2009 they have him worth $5.8M. Sometimes I think people don't really understand just how valuable guys like Cameron & Hardy actually are.

[southpaw121505]

Hall has positive value if the Jays put in Rios/Wells. With Wells Hall has 10 times the value you may think there is.

Hall has negtive value in any scenario, however if we take an even worse contract than the overall net might be enough for the other team, but the Hall aspect of the deal is always a negative for any team.

[Hate those Rodents]

2009 is more on par. 5 million would be about where I'd go per year, and I'd rather just move him if he could get us a decent starter and go with Escobar.

 

ETA - any SS is worth value for their defense. Hardy is not showing he has a bat and is about to be due a bunch of money that he might not produce enough to earn. Again, the easy/safe thing to do would be to go with Escobar and get whatever pitching you can for JJ.

[Oldcity]

To be fair TLB, Escobar would have similar value due to his defense. Elvis Andrus, a player often compared to Escobar, is valued at $6.1 mil by fangraphs this year despite a .654 OPS. Escobar is likely to have similar value next year based just off his defense.

[TheCrew07]

I think using FanGraph's monetary value is a slippery slope, because baseball has a sliding economic scale. 10 mil on a 90 mil payroll is entirely different than 10 million on a 200 mil payroll, or a 40 mil payroll.

 

Talking about WAR is one thing, throwing arbitrary dollar figures is another. Look around the league, how many players are actually paid their value according to the website? The money just doesn't add at all, there's a disconnect here... baseball isn't played in a vacuum nor are salaries distributed in a vacuum so I don't feel comparing monetary values from FanGraphs is worthwhile at all. Most players even in FA are paid around 60 percent of their FanGraphs value, which I would call their fair market value. Those are paid close to their fangraphs value are the top FA players in the game... the FanGraph value will only approximate the actual market value for the top FA players in the game.

 

If Hardy would have signed a FA contract last off-season there's no way he gets 18 mil per year... he's not an 18 or 20 mil player, he's not Teixeira... he's probably a 10-12 mil player though.

[paulmolitor4]

If Hardy would have signed a FA contract last off-season there's no way he gets 18 mil per year... he's not an 18 or 20 mil player, he's not Teixeira... he's probably a 10-12 mil player though.

I just hope someone else is paying that 10-12 mil.

[Hate those Rodents]

It will be a huge mistake if we pay him even 8-9 million dollars/year long term.

[TooLiveBrew]

Talking about WAR is one thing, throwing arbitrary dollar figures is another. Look around the league, how many players are actually paid their value according to the website?

 

I dunno... people are just ripping Hardy without any real research into it. I thought providing the Fangraphs estimate would be a useful objective tool. I guess not.

 

 

2009 is more on par. 5 million would be about where I'd go per year, and I'd rather just move him if he could get us a decent starter and go with Escobar.

 

No -- Hardy has been worth that $5.8M so far this season. Even with an atrocious offensive line, his value by the Fangraphs system for a full season is nearing $10M.

 

Imho there's a disconnect here in that people seem to assume players that are hot will never cool off, and players that are cold won't return to their hitting norms. The Bill Hall--Hardy comparison for doesn't work at all for me, especially since JJ's defense is so strong.

 

 

To be fair TLB, Escobar would have similar value due to his defense. Elvis Andrus, a player often compared to Escobar, is valued at $6.1 mil by fangraphs this year despite a .654 OPS. Escobar is likely to have similar value next year based just off his defense.

 

True... however I think it's a helpful point to note that Escobar's value is similar to Hardy's when JJ has roughly the worst hitting season of his career. That's the kind of difference between the two as offensive players. If you have Hardy at career norms in terms of hitting, even Escobar's spectacular D probably doesn't close the gap.

[Hate those Rodents]

TLB - clearly you appreciate what Hardy is offering the team more than a lot of us, have some things to back it up that I don't agree with, and don't want to part with him and do want him signed long term.

 

That happens to frighten me to death, but we'll just have to let time see what prevails.

[TooLiveBrew]

I actually don't want to sign Hardy long-term, as I believe he could be moved at any point for a solid young SP. I would rather fill SS with glove-first guys that would hit down in the order if it meant Escobar went to TOR as part of a Halladay deal. If that doesn't happen & Escobar stays with the Crew, I would still want to see Hardy traded for pitching.

[paulmolitor4]

I think the debate comes down to who you think the real J.J. Hardy is... I for one think we are seeing the real J.J. Hardy right now. Someone who is probably to stubborn to make any adjustments to his swing, and has miserably failed at adjusting to how pitchers are attacking him now. Will he grow up and figure things out? Maybe. I just would just prefer to let him figure it out with someone else and very soon so the Brewers can get maximum return for him. Trust me, I want Hardy to turn it around this year, but I'm not holding out hope at all. Right now I would predict he will be lucky to hit .240 at the end of the year, and to make matters worse he's not a good OBP guy.

[southpaw121505]

any SS is worth value for their defense.

What? Do you mean any good defensive SS? Because if you mean any SS I'll disagree, Ryan Theriot does not have value for his defense.

[GB12]

Not that I'd necessarily want to do this, but I'd like to hear what some of you think. Trade Escobar for Halladay and still trading Hardy in the offseason for more pitching.

 

2010:

 

Halladay/Gallardo/pitcher via Hardy/Parra/Bush

 

2B-Rickie Weeks

OF-Mike Cameron/Casey McGehee

OF-Ryan Braun

1B-Prince Fielder

3B-Mat Gamel

OF-Corey Hart

C-Mike Rivera

SS-FA fill in, say Orlando Cabrera for 1 year

P

[Invader3K]

We'll still have Suppan next year though.

[pogokat]

If you could get Cabrera for under 4 million a year, why not? I mean, a decent shortstop isn't terribly expensive...I love Hardy...he's above average defensively and has been one of the top three hitters on the team the last few years...but, there's value to trading him...especially if the brewers don't plan on resigning him

 

I love that this team is mostly homegrown...but signing free agents and traing for players isn't a bad thing...it's all about maximizing your player's worth...

[Oldcity]

What sucks is before this season the Brewers could have gotten a king's ransom for Hardy. This bad year is coming at the absolute worst time in regards to his trade value, and makes it very difficult to determine his worth after this season.

[JJHardy7]

The more I think about it the more I don't want to trade either. If we do trade one, I'd move Escobar. I really don't want to trade him though for a rental or anything like that. If we can get a younger prospect back plus a guy that can help now, I'd probably be fine with that. I wasn't in Escobar's camp at the beginning of the year, but the more I've watched him play I'm starting to sing a different tune. I don't think this guy is going to be below average with the bat at SS, but it's up to him. He's putting up nice numbers with his frame. If he works hard this off-season, I think he'll be at least average with the stick in the bigs next year. If he was physically fully 'developed', I'd be in the boat to move him now. I just think he still has some room to grow and that should help him generate more power. Rey Ordonez never had that power ability...Escobar's shown it at times and again still isn't physically developed. I'd hang on to both of them and hope Hardy crushes the ball the rest of the way.

I do have to tip my hat to TheCrew07. I disagree with you in the off-season about this, but you were right. Hardy should've been moved last off-season. I only saw Escobar play a little bit in Huntsville, but after seeing him this year he's the real deal. I like how some here are just disregarding his defense...it's really, really good. If he hits like an after SS in the bigs, there's no way you move him unless the deal makes sense now and in the future. There's nobody really behind Escobar in the minors that will be ready for a few years...we can just plug away with veterans, but why? With Hall and Suppan off the books after next year the team should have plenty of money for pitching, etc.