Brewers acquire Felipe Lopez from Arizona for Cole Gillespie/Roque Mercedes, Gamel back to Nashville

[DougJones43]

Gallardo/Looper has been a solid "1-2 punch" this year.

Calling Looper a #2 this year is a pretty big stretch. He's performed more like a #4/5 in my opinion, unless you are putting a lot of stock in his W-L record.

[Fatter than Joey]

Has there been any discussion on whether Lopez would accept arbitration if we offered him after the season? If there was, my apologies for not ciphering through 17 pages of thread.

There has been some "heated" discussion regarding this very issue.

 

Here is something I posted

 

Here is Lopez's recent contract history.

2006 -- Accept Arby's -- signed and avoided the hearing
2007 -- Ditto
2008 -- Accepted Arby's and lost the hearing
a.) Released by the Nats
b.) Signed by the Cards
c.) The Cards Declined to offer Lopez Arby's.
2009 -- Signed a one year deal, for 1.5M less than he earned in 2008 by AZ
Dumped/Traded to the Brewers

Lopez didn't "go/went" for anything -- things happened to him -- he certainly has a history of accepting Arby's and I don't see that changing.

I am of the opinion there is a very good chance he accepts.

[endaround]

Looper has been atrocious this year. Why exactly is a question. He has lost velocity with his fastball.

[Thurston Fluff]

If anyone is saying that you can't use this season's stats, they would be mistaken. What is being argued is that all things should be looked at in context, and that Counsell's career tells us more about how good a hitter he is rather than the smallish sample of half a season.

 

I agree with you. On the whole Cousell's career shows more than this year' stats. But if we are talking about how well he will do over the next month and a half I think the weight of current play goes up significantly. I am not using this season's stats to say Counsell is the better prospect nor am I saying he will continue to play well above his career norm. All I was saying is he is playing better than Mat Gamel now. Thus he should be playing ahead of Mat Gamel now. With that being the case and Gamel needing to play regularly it makes a ton of sense to send Gamel down to improve his game. To take it one step further if the team can improve even a little by making a small trade then it should so it. I think this trade made a good prospect who, at the moment, is the weakest link able to go down and work on not being the weakest link without harming the team in the process.

 

The specific comment you are addressing was directed at Logan who said

 

I really can't express in the proper words how I feel about a fan thinking that Counsell is a better hitting option than Gamel. This is just taking single season stats way to far.

 

I think it fair to say he is saying I was wrong in using this season's stats to compare the two. I am using single season stats in a very narrow way because there is no better stats to use. Gamel has none to speak of at the major league level and less at AAA. As you correctly pointed out, when taking defense into accoun, Counsell only has to be marginally better than his career norms to make a reasonable assumption that Counsell is a better bet at the moment.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Thanks, FTJ. I was thinking he'd accept as well. If he did, it wouldn't be all bad because we'd have nice infield depth and a super sub player that could fill in at any infield position. It would all but ensure a Hardy/Escobar trade of some sort, though, and make Counsell expendable which is ok since he's getting a bit up there in age. He'd be a nice insurance policy for Weeks as well in case his wrist isn't ready to go for Opening Day.

[CheezWizHed]

endaround[/b]]Looper has been atrocious this year. Why exactly is a question. He has lost velocity with his fastball.

Wow. atrocious is not an adjective I'd use for Looper. He hasn't been lights out, but he has been far from atrocious. He is about what we expected from him when signed. His HR rate is troubling and his WHIP is higher than normal, but he keeps the team close in just about every game.

 

And no one called Looper a #2, just the second of a 1-2 punch. He has simply been our 2nd best SP. (although surprisingly close with Suppan).

 

Suppan and Looper have been surprisingly consistant so far this year, not great, but not terrible either.

 

For atrocious, see Parra in June.

[zzzmanwitz]

I guess i shouldn't have said Looper is our #2, he is our defacto #2 because Bush has been hurt. But the Brewers seem to win when he pitches, so I can't really complain. (13-7 when Looper Starts)

[Ennder]

Other than a little HR/FB spike Looper is right around expectations.

[DougJones43]

And no one called Looper a #2, just the second of a 1-2 punch. He has simply been our 2nd best SP.

 

Well, since the post said Looper was the second of a "solid" 1-2 punch, I would take that to mean he has been performing well in that role as the #2. Outside of his win total, that's just not an accurate statement.

[brewjihad]

FTJ the part you're missing about Lopez's "recent contract history" is that he was under team control all 3 of those years. He had to accept arbitration. The Cardinals didn't offer him arbitration last season, but those other three years are really irrelevant to your argument as he had no choice.

[monty57]

TheCrew, I agree that our biggest need is starting pitching, but it's hard to get. Right now, young starting pitchers are the most expensive (in terms of trade value) commodity in baseball. I think Melvin's moves of signing players for whom we'd get draft picks and then using those draft picks on starting pitchers, making our low-level farm teams stock full of pitching talent is one way Melvin is going about improving our starting pitching. It doesn't correct the situation now, but it will in a few years.

 

The problem facing Melvin is to fill in the gap until these pitchers arrive. Since we can't sign the elite free agents, we either have to sign guys like Looper or trade top talent players. Either Melvin didn't find a deal to his liking this past offseason, or he wasn't ready to put Escobar in the starting lineup from day one this year. I hope Hardy picks up his game for the second half of the season both to help this year's team, and because he's probably the one player we could trade to bring in a decent young starting pitcher.

 

That said, I don't think trading Gillespie and Mercedes for Lopez should be looked down on simply because it wasn't a deal for pitching, unless you believe that one or both of these players would have had any impact on our ability to trade for a young starting pitcher. The only possible connection I could see would be if Gillespie were to become the starting LF (moving Braun to RF) after Hart were traded for a pitcher. Right now, I don't see Hart as being valueable enough to net the young #1/2 starter everyone wants, and instead we'd get another "back of the rotation" guy which we don't need. In my opinion, we'll have roughly the same staff next year as this year, with the possible exception of a pitcher netted in a trade of JJ Hardy replacing Looper, who will likely be gone to FA after the season. After next year, we hope some of our youngsters are ready for the bigs to replace Suppan and Bush. Only one deal needs to be made, and that is a Hardy trade this offseason. The Lopez trade shouldn't have any effect on that.

 

TuesdaysWithRillo and FTJ, I think the fact that Lopez will, with no degree of encertainty, be a bench warmer for the Brewers if he accepts arbitration should be enough to cause him to pass. I feel your angst, and it is certainly a possibility that he accepts, which would mean we get a good (albeit expensive) backup as opposed to a draft pick. However, he's at an age that he will want to start to continue to increase his contract value, so I believe he'll probably decline. Someone will sign him, as he is a decent player, and the signing team won't have to give up a draft pick if he's a Type B FA.

[CheezWizHed]

We are probably arguing semantics, but when I hear someone say "a #2 pitcher", I'm thinking league-wide ranking ( not an ace (#1) but a step below that). So being our 2nd best pitcher doesn't equal being "a #2". That is all I meant. Gallardo is really a #2 pitcher (close to #1, but not there yet).

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ the part you're missing about Lopez's "recent contract history" is that he was under team control all 3 of those years.

 

Fair enough.

 

If he did, it wouldn't be all bad because we'd have nice infield depth and a super sub player that could fill in at any infield position.

 

Lopez is a terrible SS. Use only in emergencies.

 

He'd be a nice insurance policy for Weeks as well in case his wrist isn't ready to go for Opening Day.

 

I'd agree that if Weeks wasn't at 100% and we traded Hardy -- Keeping Lopez makes more sense.

 

TuesdaysWithRillo and FTJ, I think the fact that Lopez will, with no degree of encertainty, be a bench warmer for the Brewers if he accepts arbitration should be enough to cause him to pass.

 

Last offseason, Lopez signed with AZ, for 1.5M less than he made in 2008, in the FA market -- If StL. had offered Lopez Arbys, he probably would have been paid much better in 2009. I think Lopez would rather be paid 5M to be a backup than 3M to be a starter. Lopez has an aura of being a loafer and problematic -- I think if teams were genuinely interested in Lopez, they could have easily beat our offer to AZ.

[Thurston Fluff]

Given arbitration is predicated on past contracts and last year was a very unusual year for free agents it's hard to tell what Lopez would get in arbitration next year. I am far from expert on the subject but last year almost all free agents got less than they would have a year earlier and most got less than if they would have accepted arbitration. It may very well be that players who accept arbitration would get less than past years.

Lopez should not be considered an option at shortstop from all I've heard. With the Brewers on the hook for Hall anyway and Macha's penchant for letting the last man on the bench rot Hall seem like the perfect candidate for that role so Lopez's in/ability to play short is mute to an extent. He could do it in a pinch but really he would be next year's version of Tony Graffinino. He accepted arby and that actually worked out pretty well until he got hurt.

[logan82]

I think it fair to say he is saying I was wrong in using this season's stats to compare the two. I am using single season stats in a very narrow way because there is no better stats to use.

 

I was saying that you are wrong to look at just this year to compare the 2. There are better stats to use. This is where scouting comes into play more when comparing players and why just stats is bad. We need to lean a little more heavily on scouting for Mat Gamel. The recent stats for Counsell should be weighted a little more to make an educated guess at what we should expect from him, but you seem to be entirely dismissing anything before this year in your decision that Counsell is a better player. Counsell is a weak hitter. Gamel is a very good hitter trying to adjust to MLB pitching. I think it speaks volumes when 2 players are putting up similar stats yet one is by most accounts struggling and the other is having a much better than expected year. It is obvious to me that Gamel would be a better hitter from now till the end of the year if both were given equal opportunity. You never argued defense and that is where Counsell may be a better option.

 

But if we are talking about how well he will do over the next month and a half I think the weight of current play goes up significantly

 

but not while ignoring that Counsell is not a good hitter.

[lcbj68c]

Since we can't sign the elite free agents, we either have to sign guys like Looper or trade top talent players ~~Monty57

 

I agree with your whole post Monty, wholeheartedly, except for this fact. It's that excuse that I just can't buy. I'd rather overpay an elite free agent (they'll come here for the best money) and bring up a young Escobar or Cain and use Cameron/Hardy type money to overpay for that elite pitcher than overpay for a medicore pitcher (Suppan). I just don't buy that DM cant get an elite free agent, I just don't think he either wants to, tries to, or whatever. He just doesn't do it. If I had 20M to allocate over 3 players, I'd rather allocate that money on a Halladay 19m, Cain .5m , Escobar .5m than a Suppan 9M, Cameron 8M, Hardy 3M. Especially when we have this hitting depth. Overpay for the elite, they'll come, rather than the mediocre.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just don't think he either wants to, tries to, or whatever. He just doesn't do it.

 

He offered Sabathia an extension in the neighborhood of $100M -- what else can a guy do?

[logan82]

I just don't think he either wants to, tries to, or whatever. He just doesn't do it.

 

He offered Sabathia an extension in the neighborhood of $100M -- what else can a guy do?

Not much. I wouldn't say that he doesn't want to go after top flight free agents, I would say that he can't compete on them. He made a big offer to CC, but it was still far from what CC eventually got. We were never realistically in the running.

[lcbj68c]

He can compete.

[endaround]

This was the deepest starters market the league has seen in years and the Brewers ended up with Looper. Its harder to sign top pitchers than people seem to think.

[lcbj68c]

It's hard to do a lot of things during the course of a job. It's hard to fight fires, it's hard to solve murders, it's hard to dig ditches, it's hard to be an Army recruiter. At the end of the day, it's hard shouldn't be an excuse, IMO.

 

Bob Harper to some lady on the biggest loser, "Talk Talk Talk Talk...just shup up and do it..stop talking"

[joepepsi]

He can compete.

Just saying it doesn't make it so.

 

He had to get approval to bust the budget and make the CC offer. Otherwise he had to keep payroll under $90 million.

[logan82]

Melvin is fighting fires with a bucket instead of a hose though.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not dumping on the prospects traded or Lopez, this just wasn't a necessary move because we already had McGehee and Counsell at 2B... I'm not sure why people keep turning that debate into Gamel vs McGehee... McGehee and Counsell being nicked up seem to be perfect platoon partners for this season. Gamel will hit, just because he stunk in part time duty doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme. He had 4 HRs and 10 XBH in less than 30 Hits... yes he was striking out too much, but he's going to adjust, he's not a free swinger... and even so he was still outproducing Hall and Counsell. If he continues to get better, which I feel is a reasonable expectation, he'll blow Hall and Counsell away, and maybe McGehee. Mat is a very talented hitter, I'm struggling to come up with logical reasons why people think he's average or slightly above average, he's an impact player, the only question is at what defensive position?

[Thurston Fluff]

We need to lean a little more heavily on scouting for Mat Gamel. The recent stats for Counsell should be weighted a little more to make an educated guess at what we should expect from him, but you seem to be entirely dismissing anything before this year in your decision that Counsell is a better player

 

 

Sometimes points get lost in threads that get this long so it isn't hard to miss one point out of many. I think at this point we may be talking past each other. I agree you have to use more than just this year's stats and have used more than just this season's stats in my reasoning. To your point about about scouting seeing him play is a big reason why I think Cousell a better fit right now. Not so much because Counsell is playing better than last year, which he is, but because Gamel is not. Granted we are not scouts just fans but apparently Macha and Melvin agree with our assessment. From what I've seen, as well as others here, have stated several times Gamel looks lost at times. He cannot handle inside pitches very well especially when he has two strikes on him. The stats merely backup what we have been seeing from the two of them so far. Counsell may not be a great solution but Gamel is even less so. Maybe all it will take is a month at AAA maybe more. However long it deos take if there are better options, and there are, he should not be in the majors.

 

I'm not dumping on the prospects traded or Lopez, this just wasn't a necessary move because we already had McGehee and Counsell at 2B... I'm not sure why people keep turning that debate into Gamel vs McGehee... McGehee and Counsell being nicked up seem to be perfect platoon partners for this season. Gamel will hit, just because he stunk in part time duty doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme.

 

The grand scheme is to win the division and make it to the playoffs for the second consecutive year. That means we have to win now. Not next year or even next month when Gamel learns to hit all the pitches. We need immediate results. The debate is between the best infield options today not who has the best chance to be a great player at some undetermined time down the road. Gamel at third and Counsell/ McGehee at second is not the best option today. It is Lopez at second and McCounsell at third.