Brewers acquire Felipe Lopez from Arizona for Cole Gillespie/Roque Mercedes, Gamel back to Nashville

[brewmann04]

It seems that the Arz GM did not want to expand the trade with the Crew when Doug aquired about Pitching.

[sargennm]

You guys stun way to easy. There really has not been any hand-wringing in this thread, -- any trade is going to have its detractors.

I think you're splitting hairs. They may not have been "hand-wringing" but there was plenty of kvetching. To me, it still is a bit stunning how upset some people were/are about this trade. People said that Lopez flat out sucked. To me it's been pretty clear since he was with the Cardinals that's not the case. It's not like we traded a top prospect to get him. If he keeps doing what he's doing we will get Type B compensation for him. There are not many 2B who can leadoff and have an 800ish OPS. At worst we will get a switch-hitting superutility guy for next year. For what? Two middling prospects. I really don't see the problem here.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think you're splitting hairs. They may not have been "hand-wringing" but there was plenty of kvetching.

 

Fair enough -- every trade though there is going to be some degree of detraction -- we all value our players and prospects differently, and the players we are acquiring.

 

To me, it still is a bit stunning how upset some people were/are about this trade.

 

Speaking just for me, I definitely stated more than once, this trade had definite short-term/stop-gap benefits. I saw the term "underwhelmed" used, but I am not sure I saw people here getting "upset".

 

People said that Lopez flat out sucked.

 

I said he sorta sucks -- and I stand by that. If Lopez was a league minimum type player -- that's one thing -- $4M, is another.

 

To me it's been pretty clear since he was with the Cardinals that's not the case.

 

If you want to overvalue the ~150 ABs he had with STL that is one way to look at it -- The same season he was released by the Nats with a .619 OPS -- this sort of reminds me of Gagne in a way.

 

There are not many 2B who can leadoff and have an 800ish OPS.

 

I don't believe Lopez is a good bet to have an .800 OPS going forward.

 

If he keeps doing what he's doing we will get Type B compensation for him.

 

It's possible -- but it is far from something to count on. -- This has been my major objection in this thread. I am onboard that Lopez fills a current need -- but to say we are going to get a sammy pick for him is awful presumptuous.

 

Look at what happened to Sheets (we got nothing for him), CC (didn't get a first for him), and Graffy (DM offered him Arbys, assuming he would decline, but he accepted).

 

At worst we will get a switch-hitting superutility guy for next year. For what? Two middling prospects. I really don't see the problem here.

 

If Lopez accepts Arbys he could get $5-6M -- Presuming we have Escobar or Hardy and a healthy Weeks, is spending that kind of coin really a good idea for the Brewers, especially with our pitching WOAHS?

 

I also have a problem labeling Lopez "superutility" -- Lopez is a serviceable 2b, but a poor SS. Superutility guys, probably should be able to play solid middle IF defense.

[joepepsi]

There are not many 2B who can leadoff and have an 800ish OPS. At worst we will get a switch-hitting superutility guy for next year. For what? Two middling prospects. I really don't see the problem here.

Felipe Lopez has a career .732 OPS. That's a far cry from 800ish. This year's numbers are the result of a really strong start and an .892 OPS at Chase Field.

 

But I agree with you he'd be a nice superutility guy, assuming he'd be willing to take that role in Milwaukee. And it doesn't seem like they gave up all that much. Still it's hard for me to believe Lopez at 2nd/McGehee at 3rd will be any more productive that McGehee at 2nd/Gamel at 3rd.

[Ennder]

joepepsi wrote:

 

But I agree with you he'd be a nice superutility guy, assuming he'd be willing to take that role in Milwaukee. And it doesn't seem like they gave up all that much. Still it's hard for me to believe Lopez at 2nd/McGehee at 3rd will be any more productive that McGehee at 2nd/Gamel at 3rd.

The second one is probably significantly better defensively.

[giffted1]

I said he sorta sucks -- and I stand by that. If Lopez was a league minimum type player -- that's one thing -- $4M, is another.

Fangraphs had him at 3.6 million last year, almost exactly what he got this offseason and puts him 9.5 million this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

Fangraphs had him at 3.6 million last year, almost exactly what he got this offseason and puts him 9.5 million this year.

 

2 things...

 

1.) Lopez is undeniably enjoying some success this year -- If you think that he is a .796 OPS guy -- then I can understand the want to pay him more -- I think he is more of a .700ish guy with shaky D. Therefore, I am more willing to look past his recent success and focus more on his overall history. I think his value is 3.6M or so going forward.

 

2.) Even if you spent $5 Mil and his value is $10M -- he isn't going to see a lot of PT behind Weeks and Hardy. Why pay your backup that kind of coin, when you have more obvious pressing needs, like a CF and/or C?

[JJHardy7]

It's not like we traded a top prospect to get him.

What is considered a top prospect? I fail to see how a team ranked usually fairly high the past few years in farm system rankings can give up a player a year ago that almost cracked the top 5 prospect list and has had the injury bug gave up a 'bad prospect'. That's just not true IMO. I'm not knocking on Lopez and I don't think too many are. i think most feel that it wasn't a huge position of weakness. Will it help? Sure, but I don't know how big of an impact it will have.

Also, the fact that he plays LF and Braun does is meaningless. If we signed JJ to an extension and give up Escobar in a deal, is it fine since Escobar was blocked anyway? Of course not. Cole isn't that good, but you see my point. There's nothing wrong with having multiple guys in the minors that can play multiple positions. If Lopez makes a big difference and our pick (assuming we get one) is one day a top 10 prospect in the organization...then the trade makes more sense. I would've thought we could've gotten Davis for Cole, but that must tell you what we'd have to give up to get him.

[Thurston Fluff]

You can't justify playing Gamel over Counsell?

 

Counsell has a better average, OBP and slugging % than Gamel. How can you justify Gamel over Counsell? Especially when you take into consideration Counsell is more likely to be able to handle irregular playing time better. Gamel may have the better overall skilllset and the better career but as of now the numbers don't lie. Counsell has been better.

 

I guess if both McGehee & Counsell continue to vastly overplay their career norms, then yes not playing Gamel & now sending him to AAA has been the move to get the best team possible out there.

 

When they do start to regress then call Gamel up. Until then he, and the organization, are better off letting him work on his pitch selection in AAA. I think we have the same situation at third as we did last year. It is a spot with no clear cut starter in it. I think with teams in a playoff hunt you have to handle those spots with the hot hand a little to maximize it's production.

 

This notion that teams in contention don't break in prospects is totally false. Just because you may not want it to be done, doesn't it mean it isn't regularly done across the league for a variety of very defensible reasons.

 

If course it is. The most defensible reason is because they are the best player available. Or they have such a good team that they can afford to have one on the team learning as they go. Another would be they are good defenders and the lack of offense is offset by great defense. None of those reasons apply to the Brewers current situation. While there may be good reasons to do it none of them apply to the current Brewers team.

I do not buy it is better to break in one a year than three as a reason to risk a playoff appearance though. The break in period is smaller with a more polished prospect so I don't think it makes any sense at all to bring them up ealry if you don't have to. Gamel is not completely ready for the majors. I think he is capable of handling major league duty but could learn more and be a better major league player quicker if he learns more than his 119 ab's in AAA taught him so far.

[brewmann04]

i would think Hardy will be gone before the Start of next season.The Brewers have to find a way to get some Major League Ready Arms for next season and Hardy and AHrt are two players than can get that done.

[zzzmanwitz]

Counsell has a better average, OBP and slugging % than Gamel.

 

As a Starter - Counsell

257 PAs, .285/.352/.425/.777

 

As a Starter - Gamel

112 PAs, .253/.330/.434/.765

 

Very similar stats. If you take out Gamel's time as a DH (games he plays the field).

 

As a 3B - Gamel

85 PAs, .267/.341/.493/.835

 

Is it possible that Gamel is just not a polished enough hitter to come in off the bench not being engrossed in the game? Perhaps

Are 112 or 85 plate appearances enough to prove or disprove this fact? Absolutely not.

 

Those 112 PAs are also not enough to prove that Gamel is NOT ready to hit in the majors.

 

The fact of the matter is this, Gamel needs to play everyday, whether it be in the Majors or in the Minors. I think he should be playing everyday (or at least in a platoon with McGehee) in the Majors, but to say that Counsell is the better option seems pretty out there to me. At his worst, Gamel would match Counsell's production at the plate.

 

Lopez

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Cameron

Gamel

Hart

Kendall

Pitcher

 

looks much better to me than...

 

Lopez

Counsell

Braun

Fielder

Cameron

Hart

Hardy

Kendall

Pitcher

[Thurston Fluff]

I agree with Hardy but Hart would be selling low. There really isn't a better alternative in AAA now and he is not terribly expensive. Combine that with relatively low trade value and the risk reward factor is not good. I think we will see Escobar as the starter next season and Hall/Lopez (or other) as bench players.

which is why I tend to disagree with FTJ on Lopez's value next year. He may not be cheap but not much more expensive than Counsell was two years ago. If the team has Gamel, Solome, and Escobar making the league minimum it can afford an expensive veteran bench. In fact I would argue it would be beneficial to have a good deep bench with that type of youth playing.

[sargennm]

What is considered a top prospect?

 

Someone who has a chance of starting and making an impact on the club this year or next (or a very low level prospect with some crazy combination of raw tools). As been said before in this thread, Cole doesn't even have the arm to play the outfield. He's also not hitting in AAA this year. He's 25. The Diamondbacks apparently consider him no better than a four of fifth OF.

 

If it looks like a second-tier prospect and quacks like a second tier prospect...

[CheezWizHed]

Gamel vs. Counsell doesn't matter. You were going to DFA your backup SS to keep Gamel on the bench.

 

I'm hoping McGehee gets more playing time than Counsell, as he has outplayed them both. Now is the time to figure out if you have something with him. Then you can find out if he is your starting 3B, backup 2B/3B or trade bait for next year. I like the Lopez trade, but I hope they let him walk and McGehee is our backup 2B for next year.

 

Gamel simply needs consistant playing time. He wasn't getting it at MLB.

[zzzmanwitz]

Gamel vs. Counsell doesn't matter. You were going to DFA your backup SS to keep Gamel on the bench.

 

Hall should not be the backup SS...

[joepepsi]

I agree with Hardy but Hart would be selling low. There really isn't a better alternative in AAA now and he is not terribly expensive. Combine that with relatively low trade value and the risk reward factor is not good.

Don't want to stray too far off topic but.......I really wanted to trade Hart last winter. It may be selling low on Hart, but I suspect this is about his true ability from here on out. He's not as terrible as I thought earlier this summer.Since June 1st he's hitting .270/.340/.440. Not an All Star, but he's not killing the team either. He probably doesn't deserve automatic everyday player status anymore, but going in 2010 with Gamel and Weeks in the lineup everyday, they could a lot worse than batting Hart 7th or 8th.

 

Hardy is another matter. I thought he was the best player on the team last year, but he's really not getting any better as this season rolls on. He's in a year long slump, hitting .217/.269/.360 since June 1st. He started out slow and has regressed, despite claims that he's really smokin' the ball. Trading him may be selling low too, but they can't afford to pay $5-6 million or more for him next year. Not when there is at least an adequate replacement in AAA.

[JJHardy7]

Someone who has a chance of starting and making an impact on the club this year or next (or a very low level prospect with some crazy combination of raw tools). As been said before in this thread, Cole doesn't even have the arm to play the outfield. He's also not hitting in AAA this year. He's 25. The Diamondbacks apparently consider him no better than a four of fifth OF.

 

If it looks like a second-tier prospect and quacks like a second tier prospect...

 

75 games in AAA tells you all that? He had a pretty darn good year in AA last year. I know he's a little bit older and such, but I don't think you can look at age and then minor league level and always reach the same conclusion. I don't think scouts feel Cole doesn't have the arm to play OF. He'll probably be limited to LF. I think if you feel he's not a good prospect Power 50 rankings have been wrong for awhile around here.

 

How many top prospects do the Brewers have now? 2? If that's your answer, then I guess I somewhat see your point. If not, I don't get what top is. I'm taking it the way you posted that a top prospect is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. If that's what you mean, then Cole is not that.

[logan82]

Gamel vs. Counsell doesn't matter.

 

It doesn't now, but prior to acquiring Lopez it did.

 

When they do start to regress then call Gamel up.

 

Counsell has been getting worse every month since May. I would say he has already started to regress.

 

Counsell has a better average, OBP and slugging % than Gamel. How can you justify Gamel over Counsell? Especially when you take into consideration Counsell is more likely to be able to handle irregular playing time better. Gamel may have the better overall skilllset and the better career but as of now the numbers don't lie. Counsell has been better.

 

Making that decision based on only this year's stats is really the wrong way to go. I like your point about irregular playing time because it fits my argument that we shouldn't have acquired Lopez in the first place. We should have just played Gamel and put Counsell mostly on the bench. You seem to be trying to twist my arrangement into Counsell DFA vs Gamel to the minors. Obviously keeping Counsell for the bench is the right thing to do. However, while both sere on the team if was just plain foolish to play Counsell ahead of Gamel.

[Invader3K]

Counsell has been getting worse every month since May. I would say he has already started to regress.

That's because he had a monster May. He is still batting like .280 and has an OBP around .350, IIRC. I don't think it's any secret he can't be starting full time the rest of the season, though.

[CheezWizHed]

Gamel vs. Counsell doesn't matter. You were going to DFA your backup SS to keep Gamel on the bench.

 

Hall should not be the backup SS...

Typo: I meant "You were not going to DFA your backup SS to keep Gamel on the bench.".

 

Gamel vs. Counsell doesn't matter.

It doesn't now, but prior to acquiring Lopez it did.

Sounded like the question of the odd man (with Lopez coming in) out should have been Counsell, not Gamel. I may have mis-read. I agree that Gamel should have been starting most games at 3B when he was at the MLB level.

[Thurston Fluff]

Making that decision based on only this year's stats is really the wrong way to go.

 

As opposed to making that decision based on 119 ab's in AAA or making it based on how well he did in AA or lower? Or are you basing it on his potential? He has the potential to be a much better option than Counsell but fact is Gamel has done nothing to show he is better at this point than Counsell is at this point.

 

 

Counsell has been getting worse every month since May. I would say he has already started to regress.

 

As soon as he regresses to Gamel's level it will be time to call Gamel back up. In July Counsell's OPS is .768 Gamel's was .743. I just don't see how there is any argument that Gamel is the better option until Counsell actually performs worse than Gamel has. So far the closest it's been was 25 points lower than Counsell. If Counsell's OPS drops lower than Gamel's best month maybe then it will be time to call him backup. Until then go with the player who actually put up better numbers.

[zzzmanwitz]

Typo: I meant "You were not going to DFA your backup SS to keep Gamel on the bench.".

 

I know... I'm saying what should have happened was do the trade, DFA Hall.

 

Start Gamel and keep McGehee in against LHP. Counsell subs at 2B/SS.

[logan82]

Backupcatchers wrote:

If Counsell's OPS drops lower than Gamel's best month maybe then it will be time to call him backup. Until then go with the player who actually put up better numbers.

It already has. Gamel has a .812 OPS in July.

[Thurston Fluff]

It already has. Gamel has a .812 OPS in July.

 

That's 24 ab's.

If you want to look at the last 24 ab's Cousell's got 7 hits and 5 walks vs Gamel's 6 hits and 3 walks. So even if Gamel did do well in that small a sample Counsell has done as well in the same sample size.

[logan82]

I can appreciate you taking the company line on this. I still think you are really mistaken in you belief in Counsell. . I really can't express in the proper words how I feel about a fan thinking that Counsell is a better hitting option than Gamel. This is just taking single season stats way to far.