Lucroy

[Godspeed]

Just wondered what everyone's opinion is on Jonathon Lucroy's performance this year. He's shown outstanding patience and plate discipline this year (42:54 K/BB ratio), but his overall .744 OPS is being dragged down by his Kendall-like split of .557 at home. (He's at .901 on the road). His luck-neutralized OPS is .833, FWIW. Does his solid work both at the plate and behind it make Salome one-sided skillset expendable? They can't both be in AAA next year. What's the plan?

[TheCrew07]

His work behind the plate has regressed a little bit this season, or the official scorers are nailing him with more Passed Balls than giving Wild Pitches to the pitchers. Macha seemed enamored with him in Spring Training, but I'm not sure how much that means.

[CheezWizHed]

Frankly, I expected more from him this year. Since he had a really nice season at A+ and BC has such a pitcher's park. But his OBP is still very nice this year and he is turning it around, which are both good signs.

For the future, Here is my best guess as to how the Brewers handle the two in order of probability:

1) One is packaged in a trade coming up soon. If this happens, we will see whom the Brewers expect to be the better catcher. I guess Salome is traded, but ...
2) Both stay at their current level for next year. Neither is tearing up the league like last year. Staying at AA won't really stunt Lucroy's growth (pitching between AA/AAA is simliar).
3) Salome comes to MLB, Lucroy goes to AAA. I just don't see Salome up next year, but some people expect it.

[jjfanec]

Lucroy's BABip is 50 points lower than his career low, so I think there is a good chance we see his numbers improve. He has carried a higher BABip than you would think he should the couple years in the minors but even if gets back to the .300 territory his numbers would put his average around .270 if I am not mistaken. His OBP is still .370 so I would say the big issue is his power. I never expected him to be a 20 plus guy but if he can be a 15 a year guy and keep a solid OBP like he has shown he can than he is very valuable.

 

Next year at AAA should be interesting. If Lucroy hits for a little more power down the stretch and brings his average up I can only assume they will bump him up. If the club sees him as a better catching prospect (like some on this board) than I think it would be a mistake to keep him in AA.

[Mr Southpaw]

He has a very good arm and play better than average defense. If he can hit .250 with some power, he will be better than anything we have had in a number of years.

[jjfanec]

He has a very good arm and play better than average defense. If he can hit .250 with some power, he will be better than anything we have had in a number of years.

If he can play better than average defense his offense will be a plus compared to what we have had. Obviously, it does not work like this but if you take his AA stats and throw them into the majors even in with an OPS of .744 he would be better than half of the starting catcher in MLB right now. Now again, I know if he hits only .733 in AA then his MLE would be much lower for the majors, but considering his struggles with being unlucky I think it is safe to say he could produce that number, so if he was better than average offensively and defensively that would be very nice.

[CheezWizHed]

If neither are traded, the AZ Fall League could be interesting... would they, could they send both?

[DHonks]

They could send both. My first year in the AFL we had 4 catchers, including 2 from the A's. We had Jeremy Brown, John Baker, Carlos Ruiz, and Mike Napoli. Not bad, since all 4 made the big leagues with three as regulars. Napoli was the weakest defender and usually wound up playing DH/1b.

[jjfanec]

Lucroy's OPS is now just south of .800 at .790 which is .50 points higher than when this thread started under 4 weeks ago. His last three months have been over .800 and his August although just 9 days in has been terrific. In 21 games since the all-star break he is hitting .329 with an OBP of .447 and an OPS of .990 all while still walking more than he is striking out.

 

Lucroy's peripherals showed that he was do for an uptick in a lot of categories and that is what we are seeing. While he is not going to end the season with the overall numbers we were anticipating he is bringing them up there pretty close. AAA catcher is going to be very interesting next year. I would love Lucroy to get bumped up soon especially if Salome is going to get a September call up,

[pogokat]

Yeah, the last month has been a bright spot on a season that is beginning to suck in every imaginable way..

 

so yea, lucroy's looing pretty stout, but for the 50 pts. hes gained, Brett lawrie and mat gamel have lost as many...wooo.

[jjfanec]

so yea, lucroy's looking pretty stout, but for the 50 pts. hes gained, Brett lawrie and mat gamel have lost as many...wooo.

Very true. Gamel and Lawrie have really disappointed down the stretch. It could be expected with Lawrie playing internationally for Canada and then his first full-season of pro ball, but Gamel has lost his swing going down to the minors. Other bats who have struggled include Katin (boy did he fall off), Cain (his comeback has been rough), Green (struggling a ton right now) and pretty much all of Wisconsin. The pitching has not been much to write home about. Peralta not pitching recently, Braddock going down, Ordorizzi being shut down for a bit, Anundsen getting hit hard recently, and Arnett not setting the world on fire has made of a rough end of the season.

 

The bright spots down the stretch that come to mind have been Lucroy, Gindl and Schafer. All three have solidfied themselves as solid prospects. Salome's bat has come around as well. Escobar has been solid all year. Prince has looked nice to start off his pro career. And then bullpen guys like Wooten and Axford have looked solid. And Mark Rogers continues to keep me on his comeback bandwagon.

[Postseason2006]

A guy that has walked 65 and struck only 56 times tells me this guy knows the zone. He's turning this into a very solid year and showing why he's rated higher than Salome.

[tyguy20204]

You know, a .775 OPS for a 19-year-old second basemen in his first year of professional ball isn't too shabby. It's not mindblowing, but hardly what I would call a huge disappointment.