idea from USS Mariner

[logan82]

Escobar may be a good hitter, but Hardy is a better hitter right now and Escobar will be a better hitter in 2016 than he will be this year.

[Hate those Rodents]

What do you mean by right now though? Right now as in this current season, Hardy is not a good hitter. I would place a bet that Escobar's numbers, if called up today to start this half of the season at SS, would be better than Hardy's half of the season starting at SS.

 

But the point isn't to get into this debate really, other than to say that Hardy is not an extremely valuable bat that our offense can not live without. It's that we need pitching and if we can get something good in that realm now, he's the ticket that makes the most sense to use to do it.

[logan82]

Looking at Hardy's numbers from this year and ignoring his success in previous years is foolish. He is a much better hitter than he has shown this year. Stats over half a year rarely accurately reflect a players true talent.

[Hate those Rodents]

It doesn't really matter though if he's not hitting for us NOW and his days are going to be numbered in Milwaukee anyway. He's struggled at the bat for a whole half season. What's to say he won't struggle the second half and even early next year? It happens to the best players in the game. Again, my point is we can live without his bat and that he can fetch us good pitching that we desparately need. We might as well do it sooner than later imho.

[paulmolitor4]

It doesn't really matter though if he's not hitting for us NOW and his days are going to be numbered in Milwaukee anyway. He's struggled at the bat for a whole half season. What's to say he won't struggle the second half and even early next year? It happens to the best players in the game. Again, my point is we can live without his bat and that he can fetch us good pitching that we desparately need. We might as well do it sooner than later imho.

I tend to agree. Those that live by the regression to the norm concept also die by this concept. When did Bill Hall regress to his norm? And don't bother with saying they are different situations. The point is not every player regresses to their previously established norm. Bill Hall's swing and plate discipline got progressively worse, and I am of the belief that the same thing has happened with Hardy. Does this mean Hardy can't get back on track? No. For the Brewers sake, I sure hope he does. I just wouldn't assume that a huge second half for Hardy is a foregone conclusion. Bad habits can be difficult to overcome midseason.

[logan82]

When did Bill Hall regress to his norm?

 

2007

[sargennm]

It doesn't really matter though if he's not hitting for us NOW and his days are going to be numbered in Milwaukee anyway. He's struggled at the bat for a whole half season. What's to say he won't struggle the second half and even early next year? It happens to the best players in the game. Again, my point is we can live without his bat and that he can fetch us good pitching that we desparately need. We might as well do it sooner than later imho.

That's not true. Here's his line for the last month: .298/.340/.511/.850, which are all better than his career averages. Up until June 16 he was .207/.288/.322/.610. He has shown every sign of turning it around, it will just be awhile before is season numbers catch up.

[Never Outhustled]

Bill Hall's swing and plate discipline got progressively worse, and I am of the belief that the same thing has happened with Hardy. Does this mean Hardy can't get back on track? No. For the Brewers sake, I sure hope he does. I just wouldn't assume that a huge second half for Hardy is a foregone conclusion.

So Hardy's swing has changed in a way that causes him to consistently hit into bad luck? He has hit well, his results just don't show it. Do you think we should punt every player that has an unlucky half season?

 

Again, my point is we can live without his bat and that he can fetch us good pitching that we desparately need.

If the pitching doesn't improve us enough to replace the downgrade at SS, how are we better? Wins is based on the differential between Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, theres no magical threshold you can meet in either category that creates wins.

 

 

I'm not going to debate the merits of Escobar with you, but it's safe to say that he's a good "hitter", he's just not a power hitter.

 

Edit. What I mean to say is he can clearly put the bat on the ball. He doesn't walk enough or hit for enough power yet I agree, but he's not pedestrian.

So he doesn't get on base or hit with power, but he's good? He's good at what? He's potentially good someday, but we're not there yet. His present MLEs make him a well below average offensive MLB SS. If anything, thats below pedestrian. Why even consider putting a 765 OPS AAA hitter (655MLE) in the majors?

[dadofandrew]

Escobar will be the SS next year, as he'll make almost $10M less than JJ, who'll be traded. Escobar will be a plus defender, but won't be much at the plate...but not much below Hardy this year.

[Never Outhustled]

Escobar will be the SS next year, as he'll make almost $10M less than JJ, who'll be traded.

Are we slashing payroll? You gotta jump out of the 90s man. We're not a bottom feeder anymore. I'm thinking a great place to invest that $10 million would be in a proven SS thats a few wins better than Escobar, and wouldn't require a multi-year contract.

[ELCABALLO45]

Escobar will be the SS next year, as he'll make almost $10M less than JJ, who'll be traded.

Are we slashing payroll? You gotta jump out of the 90s man. We're not a bottom feeder anymore. I'm thinking a great place to invest that $10 million would be in a proven SS thats a few wins better than Escobar, and wouldn't require a multi-year contract.

Why not just stick with Hardy then?

 

I don't belive spending 10 million dollars on a shortstop when we have Hardy and Escobar would be a really smart idea.

[Never Outhustled]

Why not just stick with Hardy then?

Haha, thats what I was alluding too.

[ELCABALLO45]

Haha yeah, I realize that now. That's my bad.

 

Would you like the Brewers to trade Escobar for pitching im assuming?

[Never Outhustled]

Would you like the Brewers to trade Escobar for pitching im assuming?

Only for the right pitcher. Halladay would work. Otherwise, I'd rather deal other prospects for a pitcher.

[pete]

"fetch us good pitching"

 

 

 

Washburn? I dunno. He could be really ordinary. Maybe that's not bad. Bedard has as many derogatory nicknames as Benny had. "Glassman" is the one I see a lot. He's just coming off the DL. We could lose Hardy for nothing.

 

 

 

If both guys performed well, it would be a decent trade. That's a big if.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hardy is certainly a better hitter than he's showed this year, but his struggles are indicators that his "mean" is not as good as it appeared to be after his 07 and 08 seasons which instead of being indicators of something even better as he matured, are likely at the very upper end of his capabilities.

 

I don't think the speed edge Escobar has over the slower than slow Hardy can be underestimated. Not only should Escobar steal 40 bases (to Hardy's 0 or 1), he can also go first to third on hits that Hardy can't, stretch singles into doubles, doubles into triples, beat out infield hits, etc. It all adds up. Speed and contact is a combo that is sorely lacking on the Brewer roster. The guys with speed, Hart and Cameron, aren't contact hitters. The contact hitters, Kendall and Counsell, can't run. Speed/contact combo is the antidote to streakiness.

[endaround]

Except Escobar isn't a contact hitter. He K'd 82 times last season and K'd 56 times this season so far. Meaning 100 Ks in the majors is very likely

[trwi7]

Except Escobar isn't a contact hitter. He K'd 82 times last season and K'd 56 times this season so far. Meaning 100 Ks in the majors is very likely

He's struck out 139 times in nearly 900 at bats for a K% of 15.5%. How is that not a contact hitter?

[endaround]

The point is that people think of Escobar as an in his prime Luis Castillo. He isn't that.

[trwi7]

But he is a contact hitter, which you said he wasn't.

[MNBrew]

JB12, thanks for addressing the speed/contact combo. For a team to be pretty well-balanced, you need a variety of positive skill combinations. Escobar brings something none of the other current Brewers do.

 

Deep stats can shed lots of light. Getting so deep into deep stats can get to the point of ignoring or denying the obvious.

 

In any case, no matter how you slice it, the Brewers seem to have potentially quite a good future at SS for the next half decade. We just don't know which of these 2 guys it'll be. I'm all in favor of whichever combination makes the Brewers better overall, whether it's Hardy at SS & the pitcher that trading Escobar helps us to get, or Escobar at SS & the pitcher that trading Hardy helps us to get.

 

Trading Hardy would also increase payroll flexibility. But that also is an essential element in the mix I assert in the last sentence above.

[DHonks]

Escobar isn't like Castillo...Iribarren is. Escobar is like Ozzie Smith after he improved his hitting at the big league level

[Never Outhustled]

Escobar is like Ozzie Smith after he improved his hitting at the big league level

Thats true, but Ozzie was an awful hitter early in his career, putting up sub-590 OPS's at ages 24, 25, and 26.

 

If Hardy is dealt in the offseason, the Brewers would be better off signing an Adam Everett type for around a $1 million and letting Escobar develop in AAA as a hitter than waste a year of his service time next year. If his supporters really believe he'll eventually develop as a hitter, than they should realize he'll be way more valuable in 2016 than 2010.

[Hate those Rodents]

Everybody would be better if they spent 2-3 years at AAA. The point is that Escobar will be cheaper and better than what Hardy is doing this year and would do next year. A guy that hits over 300 in AAA probably does not need to be there another year as well.

[Never Outhustled]

A guy that hits over 300 in AAA probably does not need to be there another year as well.

What does hitting .300 have to do with Escobar, and when did BA become a useful stat. He has a mid-700 OPS in AAA, he won't be an average MLB offensive SS anytime soon.

 

Everybody would be better if they spent 2-3 years at AAA.

True, but most guys get called up because they offer improvement to the MLB club. Escobar doesn't yet.

 

The point is that Escobar will be cheaper and better than what Hardy is doing this year and would do next year

Not really. Escobars present MLEs give him a worse OBA and slugging % than Hardy does right now, and its ridiculous to suggest that Hardy will never hit again.