idea from USS Mariner

[yoyomayoma]

http://ussmariner.com/2009/07/13/the-jj-hardy-plan

 

Hardy for Bedard, Washburn and cash. I'm all for it.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like a pipe dream at this point. The Mariners are solidly in contention, and I can't see them doing a 2-for-1 deal.

[JoeHova]

I don't like it. If the Brewers are giving up one of the best shortstops in baseball, I'd prefer to get somebody who will be around for more than a couple months. A team like the Brewers can't keep giving away future value for current value, they don't have the resources to replace that future value via free agency. Also, Washburn is still pretty much the same guy he's always been, despite the pretty ERA this season. He's being massively helped by his park and the great outfield defense the Mariners have. He's serviceable, but that's it. Bedard is extremely injury prone, having pitched a full season only 1 time in his career. Anybody can get injured, but he's Sheets-esque.

[craigharmann]

If Bush ends up being out longer than expected, I could definitely see this heat up. A rotation of Yo/Bedard/Washburn/Looper/and Soup or Parra would be pretty solid. You probably end up a wash in going from Hardy (with a solid bat) to Esco (with solid defense). Plus it seems Hardy can't go more than 2 or 3 months without a nagging injury. If Seattle wants him for Bedard and Washburn straight up, I'm saying yes in a heartbeat.

[paulmolitor4]

Bedard is certainly injury prone, but I think that's part of what makes him more attainable in a trade (along with his impending free agency). I guess I'd rather make a deal around Hardy and Bedard than pay the moon for Halladay. And you're not really giving away much of your future when you consider you have Escobar waiting in the wings, and you would get a comp. pick if Bedard leaves in FA.

[nate82]

The only way I am trading Hardy to the Mariners if it is for Morrow in return. Granted the Brewers would have to add in a prospect but there is no way I give up Hardy for a #2 and a #5 pitcher plus cash. No way you lose 1.5 years of Hardy for 1/2 a year and cash for a #2 and a #5 pitcher. Just no way I would do that.

 

Hardy and Gindl/Cody/Gillespie for Bedard and Morrow I wouldn't mind. Probably would have to throw in another prospect though for that deal.

[twobrewers]

This was discussed in the Hardy for Buchholz thread as well.

 

I didn't create a separate topic since it isn't really a rumor - just a bloggers idea.

 

I like the idea, but Al probably was right with his assessment that they would never trade Hardy for two players who won't be on the team in 2010.

[paulmolitor4]

The only way I am trading Hardy to the Mariners if it is for Morrow in return. Granted the Brewers would have to add in a prospect but there is no way I give up Hardy for a #2 and a #5 pitcher plus cash. No way you lose 1.5 years of Hardy for 1/2 a year and cash for a #2 and a #5 pitcher. Just no way I would do that.

 

Hardy and Gindl/Cody/Gillespie for Bedard and Morrow I wouldn't mind. Probably would have to throw in another prospect though for that deal.

I agree. Morrow should be part of any deal sending Hardy to the Mariners. Hardy and Cody for Bedard and Morrow sounds good to me.

[yount19.u]

How about Hardy, Hart and Dillard for Bedard, Morrow and The Muscle?

[DHonks]

That's interesting, as we'd lose Hardy, gain two solid-to-good lefties, and in the offseason we'd hopefully keep 1 pitcher, but possibly be getting 3-4 draft picks in return

[JoeHova]

That's interesting, as we'd lose Hardy, gain two solid-to-good lefties, and in the offseason we'd hopefully keep 1 pitcher, but possibly be getting 3-4 draft picks in return

 

Maybe, but keeping Hardy gains 1 more year of Hardy and (presumably) 2 draft picks when JJ leaves as a FA. Plus, I don't think there is any way a team will risk offering Washburn arbitration. He's making over $10 million per year and has an ERA under 3. An arbitrator might give him $15 million. Also, he won't be Type A (as of now, he's not even Type B), so offering arby wouldn't net 2 picks.

 

Bedard may be a Type A, but he may only be Type B because of his injury-ravaged year last year. It depends how well he finishes this season.

 

Anyway, the most likely outcome is 1 total draft pick for those 2 guys, no matter which team ends the season with them.

[trwi7]

but possibly be getting 3-4 draft picks in return

Not even close. Bedard is in the middle of the pack in type B's right now and it's unlikely he'd be able to make it to type A. Washburn wouldn't offer any compensation.

 

So not only do we give up the guy under control longer, due to Hardy's current type A status, we would also lose a pick.

 

It's probably an upgrade this year, but in the long term, it's a pretty significant downgrade.

[Robideaux]

I have no idea how the Mariners value Clement these days, but if the Brewers think he could stick at catcher, I love to see him included in the deal.

 

Which team would say no to

 

Bedard, Washburn, Clement

 

for

 

Hardy, Frederickson, Brewer (or similarly ranked prospects from Milwaukee)

 

?

[Never Outhustled]

I don't see the sense in making us worse at 1 position to make us better at another. Contenders trade prospects to get better, they don't trade cornerstone players.

[paulmolitor4]

I don't see the sense in making us worse at 1 position to make us better at another. Contenders trade prospects to get better, they don't trade cornerstone players.

I agree with that sentiment. That's why I think you would need to make another trade to supplement a Hardy and Cody(?) for Bedard and Morrow deal. If you could persuade the White Sox to part with Jermaine Dye (he would look great behind Fielder), then I think you would have a net gain in offense. You replace Hart and Hardy with Dye and Escobar.

[MNBrew]

I don't see the sense in making us worse at 1 position to make us better at another.

Huh? Lose Hardy, gain TWO starting pitchers Bedard & Washburn. In other words, lose one starter with a hugely promising prospect about ready to jump in (with a vet like Counsell ready to spell Escobar as needed), gain two going-well-this-year starting pitchers (one of the Brewers' definitely inconsistent areas).

 

I see the pros & cons each way, and I'd still be hesitant to move Hardy. One thing you definitely DON'T want to see the Crew do is to hang onto assets to the point of waiting too long to make a move, a la Bill Hall.

 

While Hardy's been much better in previous years, it's still July 17th already and the guy's still only hitting .235 with a Marquis Grissom-like OBP. Ouch. And Hardy's been RISP-challenged at times even when he's been hitting better. Escobar couldn't do much worse.

 

If you could either get the M's to include Morrow and maybe take on Suppan to even out some of the salaries, you'd have to give that strong consideration, even if we had to include a B-prospect in the deal, too.

 

Of course, the likelihood of this still would seem scant at best since it's only a blogger's idea and not a media rumor.

[Never Outhustled]

Huh? Lose Hardy, gain TWO starting pitchers Bedard & Washburn. In other words, lose one starter with a hugely promising prospect about ready to jump in .

Escobar can play in the majors right now, but the difference in OPS you'd expect between the 2 going forward this year is over 100 points. Thats a serious downgrade. If we could call up the 26 year old version of Escobar, I'd be all for it, but right now he's a pedestrian AAA hitter.

 

Washburn is having a career year, but do you think he's suddenly developed into a stud at age 34 after 3 straight seasons of slightly below average pitching? If you project his ERA going forward, you project him at his career norm mid 4 ERA, which is real similar, maybe slightly better, to what we already have.

 

Bedard, if healthy, is a stud, but his impact, like I said, is negated by the downgrade at SS. If the Mariners fall out of the race, then I'm interested in aquiring him for prospects.

 

It doesn't make much sense to aquire 2 starting pitchers. It would be more efficient to just get 1.

[Hate those Rodents]

JJ's trade value is going to be much bleaker than you'd think after the season with one year left on his contract and a pretty pathetic offensive season. If we can turn him around for something that will help us win this year AND lead to something nice in the future, getter done.

[pogokat]

I don't think JJ's season is the black hole it has appeared to be...he's a streaky hitter...and even through his low ba, his power has not gone away..., yes, he's a bit below his career line, but i bet he finishes this season with 20 homers, a .260 batting average and a .770+ ops...he'll have good trade value at season's end..

[Never Outhustled]

JJ's trade value is going to be much bleaker than you'd think after the season with one year left on his contract and a pretty pathetic offensive season.

Is that what your projecting, that Hardy will continue to have almost unreal bad luck for the rest of the season? That doesn't seem like a good projection to me. Its much more likely that he'll have an OPS over 800 in the 2nd half.

[Hate those Rodents]

We'll see I guess. He has roughly two months to go on an incredible tear to get his stats looking above average. I have my doubts, but certainly don't hate the guy. I hope to heck he turns it around. All I am saying is that if/when his stats look bad after the season, we will have him for only one more year and with Escobar ready to take over. It will really be painful to deal him for something less than stellar.

[Never Outhustled]

All I am saying is that if/when his stats look bad after the season, we will have him for only one more year and with Escobar ready to take over. It will really be painful to deal him for something less than stellar.

Then don't deal him at all, and take the picks. He projects to be significantly better than Escobar next year. Let Escobar continue to develop, and he could be a real asset in his rookie year of 2011. If we're supposedly thinking big picture, thats a much better big picture.

[MNBrew]

Then don't deal (Hardy) at all, and take the picks.

Bedard & Washburn becoming FAs after '09 vs. Hardy after '10 . . . it's one year of difference and quite immediate, all in all, so it's not like Hardy's "under control" for 3-4 more years or something like that. (Sorry, added thought after originally finishing the post.)

 

You can't always rely on this strategy -- yeah, it should be a good idea, but you can totally get burned. Take our favorite Brew Crew last winter: Everyone was dead sure that CC & Sheets -- 2 of the best FA pitchers on the market -- would net us 2 first round & 2 sandwich picks. What do we have to show for the "take the picks" approach? A 2nd round pick & a sandwich. If you get the picks & they turn out to be duds, you lost an All-Star caliber SS for nothing. My point? Simply that waiting for the picks isn't always the best approach. Sometimes you're far better off getting proven players instead. The key is to make the right moves in the right situations, and there's no perfect way to know that until after the fact.

 

Let's not forget that Hardy was pure crap at nearly Enrique Cruz-like proportions at the plate the first 1/2 of his rookie year. Escobar's hitting nearly .300 in AAA, which Hardy certainly can't ever lay claim to having done. Of course, at that time the Brewers could afford to let Hardy play. Hardy's turned out quite well. On the other hand, his career OBP is .324, and while the power numbers sure prop up his OPS, the fact is that the guy just plain doesn't get on base consistently enough.

 

Overall, on a smaller market team like the Brewers, over time you have to keep breaking in young players to replace traded/lost players and you'll always have some semblance of a veteran/youngster balance. You have to keep the farm system well-stocked. But a perpetual all-youth approach sooner or later will backfire, and that'll be all the more painful when depreciated assets can't net you the roster band-aids & fix-'er-uppers needed to avoid total major league disaster.

 

IF the Brewers' grand plan is to trade Hardy, they need to do it while his value is high. (A hot streak over the next 2 weeks would really help.) If the plan is to trade Escobar, he alone isn't going to bring this year's equivalent of Sabathia to this team.

[Never Outhustled]

If you get the picks & they turn out to be duds, you lost an All-Star caliber SS for nothing.

No, we got another season out of an All-star caliber SS. Your aproach nets nothing for the 2010 season. The idea of trading a player before his biggest prime year makes it almost impossible to compete for the WS.

 

Let's not forget that Hardy was pure crap at nearly Enrique Cruz-like proportions at the plate the first 1/2 of his rookie year. Escobar's hitting nearly .300 in AAA, which Hardy certainly can't ever lay claim to having done.

When did BA become a useful stat? Hardy had a better OPS in AAA, and even if Escobar was as good a hitter, Hardy is a better hitter now than he was then.

 

Hardy's poor rookie season is the perfect example of bringing a prospect up too early. Had Melvin waited until May to bring up Hardy, we'd control him through 2011.

 

Which would have more projected value, having Escobar from 2010-2015, or having Escobar from 2011-2016. Its the latter, by a wide margin.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not going to debate the merits of Escobar with you, but it's safe to say that he's a good "hitter", he's just not a power hitter.

 

Edit. What I mean to say is he can clearly put the bat on the ball. He doesn't walk enough or hit for enough power yet I agree, but he's not pedestrian.