Juan Pierre?

[paulmolitor4]

A player whose entire value is hitting singles (Pierre neither has power nor walks very much) are going to be at the mercy of the defense and luck more than home run hitters and players who do walk. Fielder can hit .100 for a week and still get on base at a decent clip, Pierre can't.

On the other hand, you could use your own argument against you. A guy that consistently puts the ball into play is going to be more likely to be immune to bad streaks, because luck would dictate that some of those balls put into play are going to end up a being a hit. Also Fielder hitting .100 for a week regardless of walks would be a bad streak.

[endaround]

You're way too focused on batting average. Pierre has to hit .280-290 or so to have any value what so ever. But its going vary ahuge deal because his value is going to be wrapped up entirely in BABIP which he has little control over. Fielder could easily go 2 for 20 with 5 walks for a week. But that would put his OBP at .280 which is obviously not good but a player like Pierre hits .100 for a week and his OBP would be like .130.

[paulmolitor4]

You're way too focused on batting average. Pierre has to hit .280-290 or so to have any value what so ever. But its going vary ahuge deal because his value is going to be wrapped up entirely in BABIP which he has little control over. Fielder could easily go 2 for 20 with 5 walks for a week. But that would put his OBP at .280 which is obviously not good but a player like Pierre hits .100 for a week and his OBP would be like .130.

I see your point. I guess when I think of streaky, I think of it in the traditional sense of getting hits (i.e. hittiing streaks).

[twobrewers]

You two are locked up in the definitions.

 

I would think Pierre is very luck dependent because he puts everything in play. However, his actually play is consistent because he at least puts everything in play.

[JohnBriggs12]

A player whose entire value is hitting singles (Pierre neither has power nor walks very much) are going to be at the mercy of the defense and luck more than home run hitters and players who do walk. Fielder can hit .100 for a week and still get on base at a decent clip, Pierre can't.

But Pierre doesn't hit .100 for a week.

 

Here are his week by week BA in the 8 weeks he played in place of Manny: .407/.292/.333/.300/.200/.258/.208/.308. In the week he hit .200, he walked twice. In the week he hit .208, he walked once and was hit by 2 pitches.

 

Pierre has led the league in triples and in 4 seperate seasons had reached double digits in triples. He's certainly more of an extra base threat than say is Jason Kendall. Granted he hits a lot of singles but a guy that only strikes out once in every 16 AB's is going to get a lot "lucky" hits. He's also a very adept bunter and that forces the 3B to constantly play up which opens a hole on the left side. His ability to bunt his way on is another way he avoids big slumps. Plus for a guy who's always making contact, he's very tough to double up. Oh, he'll hit into the DP occasionally because he makes so much contact but he has to hit it right at an infielder.

 

How consistent is he? In the 52 months since becoming a starter, he's hit under .250 just 7 times (only once since 2007) and he's never hit under .215 (that was in 2002) in any given month. Hence you'd be hard pressed to find too many weeks where he hits .100 endaround.

[logan82]

He is basically Jason Kendall with a little more speed. No thanks.

[paulmolitor4]

He is basically Jason Kendall with a little more speed. No thanks.

I'm not in the "acquire Pierre camp", but that's a poor comparison IMO. Maybe if you said LH and a lot more speed than Kendall.

[logan82]

He is basically Jason Kendall with a little more speed. No thanks.

I'm not in the "acquire Pierre camp", but that's a poor comparison IMO. Maybe if you said LH and a lot more speed than Kendall.

His speed allows him to get a few more hits and SB. His hitting is very Kendallish.

[paulmolitor4]

Let's see then... over the last three years:

 

Pierre: .293 AVG, 64 SB (2007), .283 AVG, 40 SB (2008), .328 AVG, 23 SB (2009)

 

Kendall: .242 AVG, 3 SB (2007), .246 AVG, 8 SB (2008), .233 AVG, 1 SB (2009)

 

I think you're taking a lot of liberties with your comparison.

[jjfanec]

Let's see then... over the last three years:

 

Pierre: .293 AVG, 64 SB (2007), .283 AVG, 40 SB (2008), .328 AVG, 23 SB (2009)

 

Kendall: .242 AVG, 3 SB (2007), .246 AVG, 8 SB (2008), .233 AVG, 1 SB (2009)

 

I think you're taking a lot of liberties with your comparison.

No, he really is not. You cannot just look at average. Pierre has obviously been better this year. But look at their OPS over the 3 before this year. Pierre has been .655, 685, and .717. Kendall has been .651, .610, and .709. Kendall is a better OBP guy than Pierre and they slug near the same so they are similar outside of Pierre's triples and steals, but considering one is a catcher and the other can barely play CF so would almost have to be a corner OF there is reason to say Kendall is better and more valuable.

[Invader3K]

Pierre is an interesting player...I think he gets bashed a lot more than he deserves, maybe because he looks like a 12 year old in his dad's baseball uniform. At the same time, he is fairly overpaid, and I don't see how he's a good fit for a team like the Brewers. I'm not sure if Macha would know what to do with him, frankly (I'm not bashing Macha, just don't think Pierre would fit his current style of managing).

[paulmolitor4]

Let's see then... over the last three years:

 

Pierre: .293 AVG, 64 SB (2007), .283 AVG, 40 SB (2008), .328 AVG, 23 SB (2009)

 

Kendall: .242 AVG, 3 SB (2007), .246 AVG, 8 SB (2008), .233 AVG, 1 SB (2009)

 

I think you're taking a lot of liberties with your comparison.

No, he really is not. You cannot just look at average. Pierre has obviously been better this year. But look at their OPS over the 3 before this year. Pierre has been .655, 685, and .717. Kendall has been .651, .610, and .709. Kendall is a better OBP guy than Pierre and they slug near the same so they are similar outside of Pierre's triples and steals, but considering one is a catcher and the other can barely play CF so would almost have to be a corner OF there is reason to say Kendall is better and more valuable.

I guess people see what they want to see. In my mind their only real similarity is that neither of them hits for power. I think people like to draw comparisons because its simple and easy to do, but I think more often than not comparisons do not do one player or the other justice. Yes, like you said, Kendall is an OBP-guy, but Pierre is a better hitter at this stage in his career, and I find absolutely no comparison in 127 SB's over the last 2 1/2 years compared to 12 SB's. And yes, for his position, Kendall is a far superior defender.

 

I never said Kendall was more or less valuable than Pierre. I just said I don't believe they are similar players.

[jjfanec]

All I was saying is that they are similar because they are both single's hitters with low slugging. The difference in singles to walks really is not a big difference. Each gets you to first base. I guess Pierre has a little more value since singles have better RBI potential. To me the only difference between the two if walks and singles can be looked at as at least being very similar, is the overall speed of Pierre. His stolen bases are what set him apart but to me they are not that different. Pierre is only better at this stage in his career this season. The three season before they were almost the exact same. Pierre's BABip just happens to be .30 points higher than his usual so his average is inflated.

 

That said if Pierre could play good CF and did not have his terrible contract I would not mind having him at all.

[paulmolitor4]

All I was saying is that they are similar because they are both single's hitters with low slugging. The difference in singles to walks really is not a big difference. Each gets you to first base. I guess Pierre has a little more value since singles have better RBI potential. To me the only difference between the two if walks and singles can be looked at as at least being very similar, is the overall speed of Pierre. His stolen bases are what set him apart but to me they are not that different. Pierre is only better at this stage in his career this season. The three season before they were almost the exact same. Pierre's BABip just happens to be .30 points higher than his usual so his average is inflated.

 

That said if Pierre could play good CF and did not have his terrible contract I would not mind having him at all.

Fair enough. Pierre's slugging percentage and therefore his OPS are largely criticized, but when you think about it, he turns many singles into doubles by stealing second base. It doesn't matter how you get to second base, does it?

[sargennm]

Fair enough. Pierre's slugging percentage and therefore his OPS are largely criticized, but when you think about it, he turns many singles into doubles by stealing second base. It doesn't matter how you get to second base, does it?

Yes, it does. I believe you need a 90 percent success rate at stealing bases for it to be a positive run outcome for your team over the course of the season.

[Never Outhustled]

It doesn't matter how you get to second base, does it?

What about the runners he's trying to drive in? The equation that figures Runs Scored using OBA and Slugging % doesn't even need to know stolen bases to be accurate, that how inconsequential they are.

[paulmolitor4]

I don't know... I would prefer to have Pierre single and steal second to lead off a game, than have Counsell or Kendall single to start a game and be virtually no threat to steal second. Also with having Pierre on first, I know my number two hitter is more likely to get fastballs to hit. That's my two cents worth from a coach's perspective.

[jjfanec]

At the same token I would rather have Kendall or Counsell get on base and stay there than the 33% of the time that Pierre gets thrown out trying to steal. I don't know the statistics but I would rather have a guy at first than in the dugout because he just got thrown out. I dont need someone to steal a ton of bases in front of Braun and Prince.

[paulmolitor4]

At the same token I would rather have Kendall or Counsell get on base and stay there than the 33% of the time that Pierre gets thrown out trying to steal. I don't know the statistics but I would rather have a guy at first than in the dugout because he just got thrown out. I dont need someone to steal a ton of bases in front of Braun and Prince.

The last three years Pierre has been a more effective base stealer, hovering around 75-80%, which is the percentage I believe Macha says he uses a cutoff line for steal attempts.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't know... I would prefer to have Pierre single and steal second to lead off a game, than have Counsell or Kendall single to start a game and be virtually no threat to steal second.

True, but those guys shouldn't lead off either. A good offensive player should be given the spot in the order that gets the most ABs.

[logan82]

Pierre is about a half a win above average on defense. Pierre has had wOBA's of .319, .317, .304 before this year(.361 this year). League average is about .344. 18 points of wOBA is about equal to a win over a year so Pierre is more than a win worse than average as a hitter and wOBA includes SB. I think we couldn't find a hitter close to league average with league average defense much cheaper than Pierre.