How about Homer Bailey?

[Nilihism]

The Reds need bats and a SS really bad. Bailey has regained his confidence with the Splitfinger. He throws a 4 seamer in the mid-90's, splitfinger,overhand curve as his 3 main pitches with a cutter and slider to round things out. He may really breakout in 2010.

The Brewers need another young power right handed arm to go with Yo/Manny and they need bats, sounds like a matchup. What could we offer? Hardy and Hart?

[nate82]

The Reds need bats and a SS really bad. Bailey has regained his confidence with the Splitfinger. He throws a 4 seamer in the mid-90's, splitfinger,overhand curve as his 3 main pitches with a cutter and slider to round things out. He may really breakout in 2010.

The Brewers need another young power right handed arm to go with Yo/Manny and they need bats, sounds like a matchup. What could we offer? Hardy and Hart?

The Reds would ask for Escobar + and then Melvin hangs up the phone.

[Nilihism]

Yeah, sadly he would. I would do Escobar+ for Bailey. You gotta take chances in this game.

[jjfanec]

Wasn't there a rumor that Bailey was going to be traded for Jermaine Dye this off-season? Has Bailey improved his stock that much that he would go from netting just one year of a good player like Dye to netting a top prospect under control for many years and another prospect?

[paulmolitor4]

I would have to say no to Escobar for Bailey. I am strongly against trading a young premier position player for a young premier pitching prospect. Pitching prospects are far more unpredictable than a position player prospect. Now trading Hardy for a pitching prospect would be a different story. Yes, he is still young, but he is also much closer to free agency.

 

My feeling is if you are going to trade Escobar (which I don't want the Brewers to), you better get a proven commodity such as Roy Halladay.

 

Also I wouldn't want to trade Escobar or probably Hardy for that matter within the division.

[DHonks]

Escobar has more value than Homer Bailey or guys like Phil Hughes.

[804Sox]

Bailey? yes. Hughes? Not so sure. Bailey's stock has really fallen the past couple years, and I don't think Hardy would be out of line as a return. Brewers might have to send a little extra back.

 

I'd hold on to Hardy though, personally. I'm not real high on Bailey and think he's a huge risk. Not totally buying the recent success, but I guess his upside makes him a good return for Hardy with Escobar waiting in the wings

[bjkrautk]

You think they'd take Mark Rogers straight-up over Bailey?

(It could happen....it did happen!)

[pogokat]

you think they'd take Bailey over Yo Gallardo?

(It could happen...it did happen!)

[Never Outhustled]

Wasn't there a rumor that Bailey was going to be traded for Jermaine Dye this off-season? Has Bailey improved his stock that much that he would go from netting just one year of a good player like Dye to netting a top prospect under control for many years and another prospect?

That rumor was true, but the Sox turned it down, Bailey wasn't even enough to get Dye, and Dye isn't that valuable. He's never been worth more than 3.2 WAR since the advent of that stat, and was worth just 1.7 last year. By comparison, Hardy was worth 4.9 last year. Dye is playing as well as he has in years, while Hardy has been awful, and Dye has still been worth just .2 more WAR.

 

Bailey has upped his production with trhe addition of the splitter, but that pitch is notorious for causing elboe issues, so at what cost? Also, why would the Reds deal Bailey, they don't have surplus starting pitching now that they've lost Volquez.

[bjkrautk]

you think they'd take Bailey over Yo Gallardo?

(It could happen...it did happen!)

Touche.

 

The Mark Rogers pick - as someone who doesn't like taking HS pitchers in the first round in general - is one that still doesn't sit well with me. My sense at the time, from reading all the scouting reports, is that not only did we take a HS pitcher in the first round....but we didn't get the best available HS pitcher (Bailey went to Cincinnati 2 picks later). I know, different scouts always view players differently, but there was a fairly general consensus around Bailey as the top HS arm coming into the draft, aside from the unsignable Weaver. (Yo developed into one of the top pitchers, and was a 2nd round pick, but didn't have the same upside - velocity - that Bailey did.)

 

I don't know if the BF.net archives go back that far, but I remember saying the same thing then that I'm saying now (minus the foresight about Yo's development).

[Never Outhustled]

Bailey also signed for more than the slot value deal the Brewers gave Rogers, so I'm sure that was a factor too. Baileys numbers are still bad, so its hard to say he's made it.

[Thats Freakin Sweet]

Bailey also signed for more than the slot value deal the Brewers gave Rogers, so I'm sure that was a factor too. Baileys numbers are still bad, so its hard to say he's made it.

True X, but the fact that Bailey has actually thrown a pitch in the majors makes him the better pick at this point in time.

[Never Outhustled]

Homer Bailey continues to wet the bed at the big league level. What a waste of velocity.

[dadofandrew]

He's 23 and throws hard. I wish we had guys like that. He's been rushed, but he'll be solid for years.

[Nilihism]

Bailey has been of fire since Augest 23rd. 6QS's in 8 starts(should have been 7). I watched him completely overpower Matt Holiday last night, trust me, not many guys can do that including Yo Gallardo. I suspect Bailey is still a year or two from superstardom, but he has a good chance at 15 wins next year, a nice addition to the rotation he would be and yearly Cy Young contender by 2011.

 

Hardy and 3-4 prospects could get it done. Make it happen and don't give up, the Reds are not a smart organization they are easy to buyoff with overrated production.

[dadofandrew]

Just like the NBA, guys get drafted at 20, given up on at 23, and are stars at 25.

 

As I said then, I wish we had guys with upside like Bailey instead of guys like Dillard who "might" be middle/long relievers someday. Bailey should just be getting his feet wet, but the Reds forced him up early, with predictable results. That doesn't diminish his potential though.

[twobrewers]

Homer Bailey continues to wet the bed at the big league level. What a waste of velocity.

Have you followed him recently? Nilihism is correct - something has definitely "clicked". He has a 2.41 ERA in his last 6 starts with almost a K per inning.

 

If Bailey was going to be traded, it would have been last winter. With his recent promise breaking through, I would imagine the Reds are pretty exciting about Cueto, Volquez and Bailey for the next few years...

[trwi7]

Have you followed him recently? Nilihism is correct - something has definitely "clicked". He has a 2.41 ERA in his last 6 starts with almost a K per inning.

To be fair, that post was made on July 16th after he gave up 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings against us.

[nate82]

I still wouldn't want Bailey. I don't trust him and I don't want to give up the farm just to get him. He won't be a #2 type pitcher next year or a #1 type pitcher next year which the Brewers need. He is young though and the Reds are not going to let Bailey go for garbage. Gamel, Escobar, and Lawrie should be off the table for a trade like that. I would rather just pick up a free agent pitcher or someone else for what it would cost to get Bailey.

[ILuvDaBush]

I still think Rogers has the higher ceiling. He came from Maine and was a three-sport athlete (which speaks to his competitveness). Bailey has been characterized as not even liking baseball. Now perhaps that's what finally clicked (or maybe it's all the joints in his elbow from throwing the splitter) but I don't regret the pick on pure upside.

 

As for the Reds, I could see them being interested in Hardy. For them, it would give them an infield of: Rolen-Hardy-Phillips-Votto with Bruce a welcome addition to the lineup. Furthermore, I wonder if we could add a Suppan-Harang addition given the contracts if we were to give up more prospects (which I wouldn't be as amenable to doing without said addition). I like the idea of adding young, high upside arms (imagine if we would have done the Jon Sanchez+ rumored deal from last summer...but still, he could have gone the way of Parra on this team too) but I also think JJ still holds a good deal of value because of the track record/added year of control through the demotion. Bailey would be a welcome addition.

[thebruce44]

He could very well be next year's Edwin Jackson. I would love to have him in our rotation, but am not sure why the Reds would do it.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I would go for it if he would just cost Hardy and not too much else. He's one of those guys who has had his luster really wear off (I remember Rob Dibble on XM used to really rip on him as overhyped), but could potentially really thrive in the right situation.

[twobrewers]

To be fair, that post was made on July 16th after he gave up 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings against us.

Big "mea culpa" on my part.

 

I thought this was a new thread.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's one of those guys who has had his luster really wear off (I remember Rob Dibble on XM used to really rip on him as overhyped), but could potentially really thrive in the right situation.

 

Rob Dibble also thinks the most important stat for pitching is W-L record.

 

I agree Bailey is the kind of guy that could thrive in the right situation. He's another good example of the kind of pitching the Brewers should be targeting this offseason: young, ready to face MLB hitters, and a buy-low candidate with good upside.