Future offense of Fielder, Braun, and 6 scrubs - good enough?

[The Truth]

The fact that he'll likely only remain a Brewer through 2011 will be what forces Melvin's hand next year and in 2011 to "win now"

[pogokat]

I'm sure he wants a deal like Teixiera got---why shouldn't he?

[davego]

I have mentioned this before, but my hope is that I'll take my yet unborn grandkids to MP and they will get to see bronze status of Prince and Ryan.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm sure he wants a deal like Teixiera got---why shouldn't he?

Exactly, and in two years it will be even more. Plus the fact is, none of us know what Prince wants to do. He may love it in Milwaukee but dream of playing for the Yankees or some other team. I just don't see why it's worth discussing for another year and a half. I'll take Prince and have a shot at the playoffs for three more years rather than trade him now for 3 guys with high celings.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

Prince won't sign a 3 year extension, though.

 

He'll be 27 after 2011, and he'll be looking at 100+million dollar 5+ year deals in the FA market. As much as I'd love to see him stay, I just don't think the Brewers can compete with that.

Yeah, if Prince keeps it up, he'll have a lot of big market teams looking at him, including the Angels, Red Sox, and Mets. Even if Prince did want to remian a Brewer, keep in mind, its not just Prince Fielder you're dealing with, it's Scott Boras.

[bobskube]

Rickie's wrist injuries are scary, but I saw a different player this year both offensively and defensively. Hopefully he makes a full recovery and stay away from these pesky injuries before he becomes the next Eric Davis.

[NYChez]

Would the Yankees and Red Sox spend that type of money on a 1B/DH even though they already have Teixeira and Youkilis?

[jjfanec]

Would the Yankees and Red Sox spend that type of money on a 1B/DH even though they already have Teixeira and Youkilis?

David Ortiz is locked up until 2010 so I am sure Boston would love to replace him with Prince. They also have Mike Lowell signed through 2010. Youkilis can play 1B or 3B so that gives them so real flexibility at 3rd, 1st and DH in the 2011 which is Prince's last year here unless he signs long-term.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

Would the Yankees and Red Sox spend that type of money on a 1B/DH even though they already have Teixeira and Youkilis?

 

Yankees, doubtful unless they want him as a DH, but Kevin Youklis has spent almost as much time playing 3rd as 1st, and the Red Sox could easily put him there and put Fielder at 1st. I think the Angels and Red Sox will be the top 2 for him when the time comes.

[strawbossisevil]

Going off of the original post question, I think our team would only be successful like the Red Sox were (when they featured Ortiz and ManRam) if we had top of the line pitching like they did. We need at least one, if not two top flight starters in the rotation with Gallardo. Hopefully a Hardy trade will bring one back, and hopefully we can develop one in the next year or two.

[joepepsi]

The only way for the Brewers to get top flight pitching is through the draft. The Yankees can sign Clemens, Wells, CC, Burnett, et al, but the Brewers will never be able to do that. They'll need a handful of Gallardo/Parra types in the upper minors at all times. Believe it or not the Orioles have done a good job stockpiling pitching talent the last couple years through trades and smart drafting. The Brewers need to shift focus to pitchers. Hopefully Hardy and Hart can bring some young pitching talent to the organization this winter.

[Invader3K]

The only way for the Brewers to get top flight pitching is through the draft.

 

Isn't the problem with this though that so many pitching prospects just flame out or never even make it to the big leagues? For every Gallardo or even Manny Parra, there seems to be three or four Jeffress or Rogers types.

[TooLiveBrew]

Would the Yankees and Red Sox spend that type of money on a 1B/DH even though they already have Teixeira and Youkilis?

The Yankees would sign Fielder as a FA in a heartbeat. Their DH options this year have been primarily Damon & Matsui, both of whom are getting old, and esp. Matsui doesn't have very much left in the tank.

 

 

The only way for the Brewers to get top flight pitching is through the draft.

 

... or by trading someone like Fielder.

[joepepsi]

Yup, many young pitchers do flame out before they make it to the majors. That's why you have to stockpile them. Easier said than done I realize, but the Twins seem to have done reasonably well over the last few years.

[TheCrew07]

The only way for the Brewers to get top flight pitching is through the draft.

Isn't the problem with this though that so many pitching prospects just flame out or never even make it to the big leagues? For every Gallardo or even Manny Parra, there seems to be three or four Jeffress or Rogers types.

That's a bit of an over generalization... we got Yo and Parra up, but Rogers and Jones both got hurt. Melvin brings up those 2 players all the time when discussing pitching, but the truth is that the Brewers didn't have enough high ceiling arms in the system to start with. Pitchers do get hurt but the Brewers have done a better job developing them as of late. Neugy actually made it to MLB so I'm not sure he's a flame out, but his workload probably was his undoing (beware Yo), and I don't think his injury was necessary his fault. When you only have a couple of arms with huge upside every player is more crucial. I like the current blend of hitting and pitching in the system. The system has never had this much quality pitching depth. Hendrickson and Sarfate were top pitching prospects when Fielder/Weeks/Hardy etc were coming through the system, those guys wouldn't even crack the top 20 prospects now. Cody has gotten better results than little Ben with much better peripherals... I think on the whole many of us learned some tough lessons 2002 through 2006 about what qualifies as a "true" prospect.

[thebruce44]

Prince should absolutely be expecting a Tex like deal. Offensively, he has been the superior player thus far in his career.

[clancyphile]

Keep in mind, there are other options:

Taylor Green and Cole Gillespie are often overlooked, but both could be pretty good. Gillespie has the plate discipline; and Green's a left-handed hitter who's a lot like Jeff Cirillo.

[joepepsi]

Gillespie ain't doing much in Nashville, but Green looks like he can be a major league 3B, right?

[monty57]

Prince is now guaranteed to make $19MM, even if he gets hurt tomorrow, so an extension will be a much more difficult sell then it is to someone who is pre-arby. I advocated locking up Fielder a couple of years ago, was very happy with Braun's deal, and think they should act on Yo soon possible and Gamel in the next year or so.

Just for fun, I'll take a stab at this: Prince's current salary is $7.5MM, with $10.5MM next year and a final year of arby after that. If we added some money to the first years and gave him a big guarantee, there is some chance he'd sign. Let's say $8.5, $12, $14.5, $16, $18 for a 5 year $69MM deal right now. That would be a big guarantee for Prince and his family, as no matter what happens baseball-wise, the Fielders will be set for a long time. Plus, he'd still only be 30 when the contract ended, so he could still get another long-term deal when this contract was over. What he would be "giving up" would be a guaranteed $19MM, a year of arby probably somewhere around $12MM and a possible big contract. Even if he got $20MM in each of the first two years of that contract, he'd only be giving up $2MM in this scenario (which probably means I'm putting too big of numbers in what the Brewers would offer). The question for Prince would be "is the risk worth it?"

On the Brewers side, there wouldn't be much change until 2011, when they will be rid of Hall & Suppan's contracts (and Hardy if he isn't traded before then). As has been noted, they will likely be able to field a decent group of low-priced postion players (1B Fielder, 2B Lawrie, SS Escobar, 3B Gamel/Green, C Salome/Lucroy, LF Braun, CF Cain/Schafer, RF Gindl/Katin?) plus, some of our young pitchers should be getting ready for the show in a couple of years and we should pick up some talent in trades of via FA over the next few seasons.

On paper, I think it's feasible and I have a lot of faith in Mark A to make sure the numbers work financially. The big questions are (1) What are Fielder's plans and would a large guaranteed contract change those plans, (2) What would Fielder get in trade, and (3) Would the lineup listed above (or some variation of it) be better than the same group minus Fielder, but plus what we get in return and what the extra salary saved would net. Let's say we get a true young #1 for Fielder and save the $69MM from my example. That money could be used to lock up Yo & Gamel and still probably add another player to fill a hole. Unfortunately, if that's a pitcher, we're more likely to end up with a Suppan than a Sabathia, as I still don't think we'd have enough money for a $20MM pitcher.

I guess with all that said, I'd be happy if we were able to get Fielder to agree to a five-year deal, as he does seem to be the one player on our team (along with Braun who is locked up) for whom we do not have a replacement somewhere in the system. It would then be important to trade Hardy/Hart for starting pitching help, and we fans would be able to enjoy the Braun/Fielder combo mixed with other young talent from the system for a long time. I still believe the more likely scenario (considering the Boras factor) is that Hardy is traded this offseason, Fielder is traded next offseason and we sign some of our young, pre-arby guys to Braun-type deals.

[Invader3K]

monty, your line of thinking is OK, but it's going to take much more than that to get him to sign any kind of extension. You're really only talking three years beyond his current contract...I'm guessing Boras and Prince will want at least five years, minimum. Keep in mind the Brewers previously offered Prince a contract around $60 million last spring, which he turned down.

 

I hope Melvin at least talks with Prince's camp about it during the off-season, though. Who knows? Maybe Prince really enjoys playing with his current team and will want to stay...but it won't be for cheap.

[topper09er]

As long as Prince still has Boras, we all know what is going to happen, he will not sign anything that costs him even 1 year of FA and will sign a huge deal with BoSox/Yankees to be their DH for the next 5-6-7 years for 5-10M more than the brewers offer him. It will turn out that the BoSox/Yankees overpaid for him and whatever deal the Brewers offer him would have been more fair, but those teams dont care and can afford to overspend.

 

No matter how much we want him and no matter how big of a contract we offer him, someone with more money will just offer him a bigger contrast because they can and Boras will take it.

 

Our only chance to keep Prince in 2012+ is if he has some major personal epiphany and fires Boras and decides he would like Braun/Fielder to be like Bagwell/Biggio.

[monty57]

I was looking at buying out two years of free agency (my 5-year example included inflating this year's salary). I agree this is unlikley to happen, but it's what I'd shoot for. As far as cost, as I mentioned, if Prince gets $7.5MM this year and $10.5MM next year, he'll likely get around $12-13MM in his final arby year (20+% increase in salary), making the total $31-32MM. Even if he gets $20MM in each of his first to FA years, which doesn't seem likely, his net would be $71-72MM over the same five years in which my example would have paid him $69MM guaranteed. The guarantee has to mean something, and I'd guess it would be worth more than $2-3MM over 5 years.

 

In my opinion, you are correct in that Prince will likely not sign a contract that will buy out FA years in order to maximize his possible income. That's fine, and I don't hold it against him. He can and should do what he thinks is best for him. However, I doubt the Brewers will offer much more than what I put in my example. If they're guaranteeing money, they are going to demand a discount. I'd also guess that Prince wouldn't want to sign too long of a deal now, as it would limit his chance at signing another long-term deal when this one is up. I think the deals where the team really gets hurt (and therefore the player get paid more than he's worth) are the long-term deals signed when the player is near the end of his prime. Prince will want to make sure that he can sign one last long term deal and eke out another $80-$100MM to play through his 30's. That's the deal I wouldn't want any part of.

[topper09er]

I agree that you are proposing a fair contract which is win-win for the brewers and prince, just like what we offered CC. The reality, at least with Boras in my opinion, is that it just wont happen and Boras will sell Prince to the highest bidder when he is a FA. The Brewers not have the ability to EVER be the highest bidder on any superstar type player.

 

Just wondering if anyone can look this up easily, has a Boras client EVER signed away a year of FA as part of a "rookie" or first major contract?