Standing pat will show no faith and hoping for a miracle

[bamberger]

After 88 games Melvin's lack of faith would be due to recognition that the lack of quality depth in starting pitching and the inconsistency in the bullpen, as well as a lineup with too many holes, won't win this division. Since five of the teams are competitive, it's unlikely a wildcard would come from this division.

 

The miracle hoped for is thaty they pitch and play as they did in May.

 

Frankly, my read on this team is that Melvin will stand pat, hoping for a minor miracle. He'll hope that Hardy and Hart get hot in the last 74 games so that they're tradeable for some pitching for 2010, that Braun and Fielder remain consistent, and that the pitching tightens up with good health, starters pitching more than 5 innings, and the bullpen not wearing out.

 

My thought for the last 74 games is that they should audition Dillard , Josh Axton, and Braddock, who might as well pitch occasional relief in the majors.

[RightFieldCoder]

First, there's no moves to be made without overpaying. Melvin is choosing to stay competitive for years instead of making one push this year. Since Braun, Fielder, and Gallardo are under contract for next year, we can expect another push then.

 

Second, I think people have impossible expectations from starting to relief pitching. We dont' have great starters, but they are the best we could get this year. Relief pitching will always give up runs sometimes. It's infuriating when the home team gives up 4 runs late in the game, but we forget that this offense has done the same to other teams.

[dadofandrew]

This is a team that is 42-32 (a 50 win pace, 5 games better than they are now) in games not started by Parra. They can easily make a run by replacing him or hoping he reverts back to career norms. They aren't in the AL East, so it is possible.

 

Right now, I think Doug is going to wait and see if they have a run in them, as they might well be more than one player away. An 83 win season is not a contender, but a bit of improvement, 85-86, and they're right in it most years. That's where one guy might just be enough to put 'em over the top.

[monty57]

The Brewers are in a precarious position. No team in the division has been playing overly well, which has allowed the Brewers (among others) to still be in the race, while not playing their best baseball. This makes some pine for a trade, while the trade market is fairly thin. At any given point, any of the teams in the race could get on a hot streak and take the division. I worry that a trade will be fairly costly, and the Brewers have more holes than one trade will fill, so it might still not be enough to get them in the playoffs. Conversely, it's possible that they could do nothing (or make a small trade or two) and win the division.

 

Things will go one of three ways:

 

1) They'll take advantage of the easy schedule after the break and go on a winning streak, putting them in first place, so Melvin is comfortable making a big trade.

2) They'll remain in the race at trade deadline, but still not be in a position where Melvin is comfortable making a big trade, so we make a minor trade or two and hope for the best.

3) We continue our recent trend of bad baseball, getting us far enough out of the race that we trade away our biggest chips (Cameron, Hoffman, Looper and to a lesser extent Kendall and Counsell) and re-tool for the future

 

If I were a betting man, I'd say the most likely scenario is #2. There is way too much risk in "betting the farm" two years in a row. If it doesn't pan out this year, we'll have hurt our future and Melvin will have put his job in jeopardy. We're also in a position that our fans are not that far away from the days of broken promises in the Selig era. A full-scale sell-off could lead the fans who recently jumped on board to quickly vanish, hurting our revenue stream for the next few years.

 

As Al said, I think we still have the talent to win the division even if we do simply hold the course. By not trading away our top prospects, we will still have a good team for years to come, and we will likely have some Type A & B free agents in Cameron, Hoffman and Looper (if the offense complies to help him get his win total up there) to keep our lower level minor league teams chock full of talent.