Brewers 14-21 since June 1st

[Invader3K]

Boy, that's a fun stat, isn't it? Also in the Brewers' last 11 series, they have only won the final game of a series once, against the Indians. It seems like they're begging to get to the All Star break. Hopefully the rest will let the offense regroup and remember how to score more than one run per game.

[SeriesFinale]

Well, it's ugly, but I'm not sure what it indicates--they've played some tough teams and dealt with some injury/hardship. They've got a (knock on wood) pretty easy stretch ahead in relation and I think they'll be around until September, when they have all those head-to-heads against division and wild card contenders.

[naivin]

30-20 prior to June 1st. 44-41 since April 1st? They've been slumping to be sure, but there is nothing magic about the 39 days between June 1st and July 9th.

[Mr QL]

This team hasn't been the same since Rickie got hurt.

[Baldkin]

The 6 weeks after the ASB has the Brewers playing... I believe, 3 series against teams over .500 (2 vs San Diego, 1 vs LA), and a TON of games against the Nationals, Reds and Pirates.

 

If the 'Crew can beat up on the dregs of the league, it could put them in great shape for September, in which anything can happen.

[pebadger]

Last 10 losses: 1.8 runs per game average, and scored more than 2 runs only 3 times.

 

In that same span, they have won 7, averaging just shy of 7 runs per game in the wins.

[Ennder]

April 9th to May 18th last year we went 14-22.

 

Sept 1st to Sept 28th last year we went 10-15.

 

They are called cold streaks, almost every team has them even ones who win 90 games.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

This team hasn't been the same since Rickie got hurt.

21-27 since his injury.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't see how Weeks injury hurt our pitching. we're scoring just as many runs as we were with Weeks. McGehee has been better than Weeks. Bush pitching hurt is a major factor, as was Parra's implosion. Those might be solved soon.

[bcf5575]

the lineup is in rought shape right now. Prince and Braun are steady. Mcgehee and Counsel are hitting ok. The rest of the lineup has sucked lately.

Hart, Cameron, Hardy, Kendall are not getting it done. (I know Kendall isnt out there for his offense - and usually I can live with that. But when these other guys are struggling it gets harder to go along with him being in the lineup fo his defense.)

 

Inlcuding the pitchers spot - and the non existent pinch hitting, and 5/9 of this lineup is not very good right now.

 

this is a streaky team - when they are off they look BAD. hopefully the all star break gets them going again...

[AJAY]

What bothers me the most is how mediocre this team has looked at home. We used to be one of the dominant home teams over the last few years, and you could previously count on the Brewers going 7-2 or 6-3 for a nine game homestand. Now they are going either 5-4 or 4-5.

 

I am disturbed by the dropoff.

[FVBrewerFan]

Same problem, RISP 24th in MLB.

[Ennder]

Our OPS with RISP is higher than with the bases empty so I really don't think RISP is the issue. We are pretty low on productive out% though, being particularly bad with a runner on 2nd and no outs, like worst in the NL style bad.

[owbc]

The overriding stat involving the bad home stands and losing the final game of series is their abysmal record in day games at Miller Park.

[MJLiverock]

Our OPS with RISP is higher than with the bases empty so I really don't think RISP is the issue. We are pretty low on productive out% though, being particularly bad with a runner on 2nd and no outs, like worst in the NL style bad.

This seems to make sense with some of my thoughts this morning. The team BA is pretty bad at 24th in MLB and 12th in NL. They can get the HR now and then to drive in the runs and help the OPS but the overall BA is bad and has been for a few years. Yes, I know how important OBP is but BB don't drive in runs from second and the low productive outs may be related to the number of K's which is always a point of contention. This seems to be one of the situations were fans that gripe about too many K's and poor BA's have a point. In an other thread I had figured out the team (outside of Braun in the numbers I ran for what I was doing) had struck out in 21% of the plate appearances vs. the Cubs/Cards.

[joepepsi]

I don't see how Weeks injury hurt our pitching. we're scoring just as many runs as we were with Weeks.

Maybe this is true with any team, but it seems the Brewers run up the score against crappy pitching, but have an inordinate number of games where they score 2 runs or less. I suppose I'd have to compare this with every team, but that seems a bit daunting for me to do at work. The offense can't hit pitchers who throw sinking fastballs no matter how mediocre the pitcher. They still try to drive those pitches out of the park, which seems like the exact wrong approach.

 

What am I trying to say? They may be scoring as many runs, so the runs per game looks fine, but the reality seems to be they score 10 runs one game a week, then struggle to score 1 or 2 runs every other game that week. The average may look OK, but that's not telling the whole story.

[rluzinski]

OPS = OBP + SLG

 

SLG = BA + ISO (Isolated Power)

 

OPS = BA + OBP + ISO

 

If you trade walks for extra hits and hold OPS constant, and you raise BA but lower ISO. The net result in terms of runs scored is basically zero. One cancels the other out. If you know OBP and SLG, BA really doesn't tell anything extra, in terms of expected runs scored.

 

For an average team, 100 K's in an average situation = 1 less run. Obviously K's w/RISP are much more costly. With a runner at 1st, a weak grounder to 2B is more more costly than a K. Again, it mostly balances out. Some high K guys have a knack for shortening up their swing with a runner at 3B (Fielder?) , to get that productive out. Most guys don't. Now, if the Brewer hitters could somehow trade K's for hits, they would score more runs but their OBP and SLG would also go up.

 

The one thing OPS ignores that matters is baserunning. The Brewers seem to be a pretty weak baserunning team in general . Compared to getting on base and hitting for power, baserunning comes in a VERY distant 3th.

 

And we can look at any kind of season split we want (winning the last game of a series, winning at home, day games, etc..) but what are we learning from it? All we should be learning is that over the course of a season, all kinds of random streaks occur. We are not identifying weaknesses of the team.

[Ennder]

Brewers have scored 0 - 4 times, 1 - 10 times, 2 - 9 times 3 - 9 times. 4 or 5 - 27 times.

Cardinals have 0 - 5 times, 1 - 6 times, 2 - 13 times, 3 - 17 times. 4 or 5 - 23 times.

Cubs have 0 - 8 times, 1 - 10 times, 2 - 13 times, 3- 7 times, 4 or 5 - 15 times.

 

Doesn't seem out of the ordinary compared to the other teams in our division at least.

[FVBrewerFan]

rluzinski wrote:

And we can look at any kind of season split we want (winning the last game of a series, winning at home, day games, etc..) but what are we learning from it? All we should be learning is that over the course of a season, all kinds of random streaks occur. We are not identifying weaknesses of the team.

I agree, Those splits, streaks, etc. are the RESULT of weaknesses, not the cause or explanation.

[Ennder]

The samples are too small for the splits to really mean anything. They easily could just be random.

[joepepsi]

Brewers have scored 0 - 4 times, 1 - 10 times, 2 - 9 times 3 - 9 times. 4 or 5 - 27 times.

Cardinals have 0 - 5 times, 1 - 6 times, 2 - 13 times, 3 - 17 times. 4 or 5 - 23 times.

Cubs have 0 - 8 times, 1 - 10 times, 2 - 13 times, 3- 7 times, 4 or 5 - 15 times.

 

Doesn't seem out of the ordinary compared to the other teams in our division at least.

No it doesn't. Thanks Ennder. Maybe it's just frustration. Fans more easily see weaknesses of their favorite team than the competition. Brewers are a good team, but not a great team. The same is true of the Cardinals and Cubs.

 

14-21 since June 1st ain't good, but the Brewers have so far avoided any extended losing streaks. I still think the offense needs about 4 more consistent hitters, but getting Parra and Bush back may be enough to win the division.

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

We are not identifying weaknesses of the team.

I agree, Those splits, streaks, etc. are the RESULT of weaknesses, not the cause or explanation.

You are not really agreeing with Russ at all here. Russ is saying those streaks are just random results and are not necessarily because of any weakness.

[MJLiverock]

I was mainly focusing on expounding on the earlier comment that productive outs have been a problem and adding the team is K'ing a lot which is not unusual for them and they have had a poor batting average as a team for a long time which does impact scoring runs from 2nd. I realize in the long run and in big picture OBP matters more than BA but just like in economics the short run can have differing impacts than long run situation. I'll take a hit over a walk anyday as would anyone else and the Brewers ability to get hits is lower than most team, as evidenced by the low BA. Walks are great but they rarely drive in runs. The Brewers in the short run are having difficulting driving in runs and leaving guys on base. This would be fairly normal for a team with poor hitting skills and the best pure measure of getting a hit is batting average, again not arguing that OBP is important for the big picture.

[DougJones43]

The thing that was really disappointing to see, was that yesterday the Brewers crossed over into allowing more runs than they have scored. On June 1st, they were +21.

[rluzinski]

If your criticism of OPS was only with regard to using it w/RISP, that at least makes some sense. OPS works for the average value of each batting event, so it will be thrown off if you start slicing and dicing, based on the base/out situation. But BA still is not even remotely close to being superior no matter what situation you are looking at, in terms of average runs scored. BA says that a walk has no value and a single is as valuabe as a HR. It is a very course stat, to say the least.