JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?

[Hate those Rodents]

Here is a little blurb from today...

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jj_hardy/

[wibadgers23]

Would a Hardy for Bowden trade be fair for both teams? Bowden put up some pretty sick numbers last year in AA.

[trwi7]

I don't know what to make of Bowden. He's not really striking out guys in AAA and he's an extreme flyball pitcher. His results don't match his stuff imo.

[804Sox]

while he's been a flyball pitcher so far in the majors, it's in a really small sample which i feel is deceiving. He's been neutral this year at Pawtucket (about 1:1) and has actually been a pretty consistent groundball pitcher throughout his minorleague career. I can't explain his troubles generating GB outs in the majors other than attributing it to small sample (he's pitched relatively well though), however earlier this yar in pawtucket he was working hard on incorporating a new slider, throwing it muh more often than he ordinarily would. This (perhaps) resulted in a few bad outings around midseason, and could have led to a few more popups than groundouts, as Bowden often goes to his change or curve as an out pitch.

[trwi7]

He's been neutral this year at Pawtucket (about 1:1)

 

Minorleaguebaseball has him at a .55 GO/AO and minorleaguesplits has his GB% at 30.6% this year and 39.2% in his career. That's certainly not a ground ball pitcher and certainly not 1:1.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am glad the Brewers are asking for top of the line pitching for Hardy. I do not think they are going to get it but it sounds like they do not want to sell too low.

 

Agreed, and I also agree that the Crew should get around a #3 type of pitcher for Hardy. There is really no reason I can think of to project Hardy to be this bad at the plate going forward. If I'm a Boston fan looking at Hardy's stats, the first thing I point out is his .256 BABIP, roughly 20 or 30 points below what should be expected from him (imho). The only thing that seems different in his approach at the plate is how often he's made contact with pitches outside the zone -- 56.8%, contrasted with his career 63.8% and the appx. 67% he hovered around in '07 & '08. His LD% is down as well, & I just can't see all these funky things staying the same for the next few seasons and/or rest of his career.

 

 

EDIT: Used FanGraphs for the data

[Bombers]

I think if you wanted Bowden and Bucholz, a deal like McGehee and Hardy would be a good start. Lowell has one year left that pays him 12.5 million in 2010. Since you are taking 2 of their young pitchers I am sure they may want a pitching prospect in return.

[Hate those Rodents]

That's not bad adding McGehee. I think you are right too on them likely insisting on a pitching prospect like an "A" baller. With the Bosox luck, they'll hit on the kid big time I'm sure.

[Invader3K]

Haudricourt says in a blog update that Hardy hasn't even been offered on waivers yet. So the Boston rumors seem to be pretty bogus at this point.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/52994252.html

[804Sox]

He's been neutral this year at Pawtucket (about 1:1)

 

Minorleaguebaseball has him at a .55 GO/AO and minorleaguesplits has his GB% at 30.6% this year and 39.2% in his career. That's certainly not a ground ball pitcher and certainly not 1:1.

I have him at .93 G/F this year, 1.13 G/F last year in Pawtucket, 1.26 last year in Portland, but i see your stats on milb.com. Not sure what the problem is. I do, however, remember that in 07 Bowden was featured in a BP article as one of only a few pitcher in the minors to have a K rate over 7.5 and a G/F over 1.35 or something like that. It was, like, him, Hughes, and somebody else. I'll see if i can find it . . .

[nate82]

I have him at .93 G/F this year, 1.13 G/F last year in Pawtucket, 1.26 last year in Portland, but i see your stats on milb.com. Not sure what the problem is. I do, however, remember that in 07 Bowden was featured in a BP article as one of only a few pitcher in the minors to have a K rate over 7.5 and a G/F over 1.35 or something like that. It was, like, him, Hughes, and somebody else. I'll see if i can find it . . .

Fangraphs has Bowden at this at the MLB level. They don't have the AAA numbers for that but have everything else bleh.

 

Season	Team	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%
Total *	- - -	0.29	18.2 %	18.2 %	63.6 %	21.4 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %
2008	Red Sox	0.27	22.2 %	16.7 %	61.1 %	18.2 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %
2009	Red Sox	0.33	0.0 %	25.0 %	75.0 %	33.3 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %

What scares me about Bowden is the increase in his FIP this year.

 

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
Total	- - -	6.43	1.29	5.00	0.00	.262	1.14	.322	75.0 %	2.12
2006	Red Sox (A)	9.86	2.59	3.81	0.75	.231	1.13	.306	66.4 %	3.01
2006	Red Sox (A+)	5.40	1.80	3.00	0.00	.390	2.00	.448	50.0 %	2.60
2007	Red Sox (A+)	9.00	1.57	5.75	0.20	.212	0.93	.289	79.3 %	2.00
2007	Red Sox (AA)	7.63	3.07	2.48	0.84	.278	1.43	.335	70.3 %	3.86
2008	Red Sox (AA)	8.71	2.07	4.21	0.43	.197	0.92	.257	73.0 %	2.58
2008	Red Sox (AAA)	6.53	1.13	5.80	1.13	.262	1.13	.295	76.3 %	3.75
2008	Red Sox	5.40	1.80	3.00	0.00	.332	1.60	.387	75.0 %	2.53
2009	Red Sox (AAA)	6.45	3.31	1.95	0.96	.228	1.20	.256	75.7 %	4.28
2009	Red Sox	9.00	0.00	2.00	0.00	.000	0.00	.000	100.0 %	1.08

[JohnBriggs12]

I could see Boston picking up Counsell just prior to the end of August.

[Luke7799.u]

At the risk of killing my own credibility on this site, I will just say that Hardy has been traded. I don't know to who yet or for what but Escobar is on his way to milwaukee. I am about 85% confident in this info. If I know more I will let everyone know.

[jjfanec]

At the risk of killing my own credibility on this site, I will just say that Hardy has been traded. I don't know to who yet or for what but Escobar is on his way to milwaukee. I am about 85% confident in this info. If I know more I will let everyone know.

TH said Hardy is being sent to AAA not traded. I hope you are right. I would rather see him traded than go to AAA.

[wallus]

To where and for who?

[Luke7799.u]

I was told it was for paperwork reason's essentially, so Escobar can get here as soon as possible to play tonight. Like I said before, I am not 100% on the info so please don't take it as gospel. The person I got this from has been right before and wrong before but is generally reliable.

[joepepsi]

This makes the most sense Luke. Hardy has options left and you can bet the new team doesn't want him putting on a Brewers uniform while details are worked out. So, why should the Brewers play with only 24 tonight?

[chadomac]

If Hardy was traded, that would mean that Melvin flat out lied about Hardy not being put on waivers. I hope you're right (if we're getting some good pitching) but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Kaukauna]

Exactly. Doug Melvin seldom lies (not saying it isn't possible), but he flat out volunteered that Hardy had not been placed on waivers on the radio Tuesday a.m. That seems like a strange bit of evidence.

[bobskube]

At the risk of killing my own credibility on this site, I will just say that Hardy has been traded. I don't know to who yet or for what but Escobar is on his way to milwaukee. I am about 85% confident in this info. If I know more I will let everyone know.

Luke...it is a tough site. If you are right on this, you will get full credibility. If not, you will be dismissed as Bill Hall was today. I still don't think Brian the Commish has recovered yet because I hardly see him on this site anymore after his prediction in June.

 

I sometimes know some things too but they have not always been dead right either. I hope for your sake and for the Brewers sake that we made a nice trade.

[Brewer Fever]

I think your source simply confused Hardy on his way out of town and Escobar coming up as having to be a trade. Time will tell.

[Luke7799.u]

Yes, right now it appears my first foray into "reporting" has gone about as well as my attempts with the ladies. Crash and burn.

 

Kaukana, Melvin lies all the time. Usually when he says something is NOT happening it usually means it is.

 

bobskube, Yeah I know, I have been around this site for about 5 years, I just chose not to bring my post count numbers to the new forum when it switched over, and haven't posted much in the past 2 years. I am aware of the harsh critics and I have had info before that I have chosen not to post which turned out to be true, so I decided to run with this one. Next time I will be 100% sure before I write it. Not that anyone will believe me next time.

[Brewer Fever]

Yes, right now it appears my first foray into "reporting" has gone about as well as my attempts with the ladies. Crash and burn.

If there is no trade, it's a pretty understandable mistake. Hardy leaving the big league club was a total shock. Add in word that Escobar was coming up to replace him and it's logical to immediately conclude that a trade was made. Lots of people made immediate assumptions based on the breaking news today. Just look at the firestorm kicked up when someone suggested that this was done to put off Hardy's free agency until 2011.

[Luke7799.u]

Well I think we all kind of assumed Hardy had been traded or something was in the works once the news broke, but I wasn't going by assumption. I was told something and reported it as fact. Big difference. However my information was wrong it appears, and I have heard nothing more today from the person who told me about the "supposed" Hardy trade, so I have to assume the info was wrong, hence my attrition.

[joepepsi]

Still hoping your source was right, Luke....