JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?

[dadofandrew]

Very well put, Sox. The inability to include 6 years of team control (and 4 of them very cheap) in a young guy's worth is why many want to trade Gamel and Escobar for a bag of magic beans. Those guys are 25% of the everyday lineup through 2015, and will be paid about $3.5M each from 2010-2013...which leaves more money to plug holes elsewhere.

 

Hardy is a fine player, but I would not dream of keeping him for 1.5 years for $10.5M when I can have Escobar (and what Hardy will bring in trade) until '15.

[PeaveyFury]

Come on Al, Roy Halladay is a bag of magic beans?

[Never Outhustled]

Come on Al, Roy Halladay is a bag of magic beans?

Al is still living in the Bando era, when we had a botton feeder payoll, and our minor league system was 3 players deep.

 

Cost control is less important when your deep in average-ish players. We can replace prospects that we trade away. We draft well.

[1e Corbeau]

Stat comparisons aren't perfect, but I thought this was interesting and perhaps informative when discussing a possible Hardy for Buchholz swap.

 

From the Baseball Cube:

Player Name Stat Type W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP

Manny Parra MLB 13 17 5.11 54 44 0 0 3 0 257 289 161 146 28 128 228 22 10.12 0.98 4.48 7.98 1.62

Clay Buchholz MLB 5 10 5.56 20 18 2 1 0 0 99 107 69 61 11 51 94 2 9.76 1.00 4.65 8.57 1.60

 

Manny Parra Minor 39 19 3.05 106 103 3 2 0 0 564 548 255 191 27 160 537 26 8.75 0.43 2.55 8.57 1.26

Clay Buchholz Minor 31 13 2.36 90 88 2 1 0 0 438 311 134 115 31 124 503 18 6.39 0.64 2.55 10.34 0.99

 

Pretty close. Buchholz had a fantastic start at MLB (no-no); Manny had one at AAA (perfect game). Buchholz seems to miss bats a tiny bit better, is 2 years younger and has an extra year or two of control. Both, either, or neither could reach their potential-or be AAAA pitchers with tremendous stuff.

 

Oh: Manny is left-handed.

 

Would you trade a top-4 WAR SS from 2007-2009(whose value is mostly in an unslumping glove - +50% WAR than Rollins, the 2nd highest fielding WAR over the same period) for a right handed, 2-year younger Parra?

 

Again, it's a comp-but that's what stats are for..

 

Edit: sorry about the formatting, but I'm just happy to have copy-and-paste on the iPhone.

[dadofandrew]

I was not specifically referring to Halladay, but to the many proposals that have included the future 6 year starters I mentioned.

 

Those youngsters are as key to the success of the Crew as Prince, Ryan, Rickie, and others have been.

[804Sox]

I don't disagree with your assessment of value over the course of the their controlled time at all, but that's not really the point. Boston could use a bat and additionally could use a SS to bridge the gap, in addition to 2 draft picks if they don't resign him. Hardy is one of the top young SS in the game, as far trade value, they are relatively equal. I also agree that pitching is King, but much like Hughes in NY, people wonder he's not good enough to pitch in your rotation and someone like Penny is a better option? I'm trying to be as unbiased as possible here, maybe the Brewers have to send a lesser prospect as well, but it shouldn't take much more than Hardy.

 

I could make the same argument you made about Hardy for Halladay... the Brewers would be huge losers WAR wise in that trade, even if Halladay is an 8 WAR player there's no making up that giving away 6 years of 3 top prospects, just 1 of those players has the potential to be more valuable in their controlled years than the 12 WAR we'd get.

 

In your opinion what would be a fair return for a player with a limited MLB track record like Buchholz? Delmon Young was good enough to pull Matt Garza. Garza actually had 26 starts in MLB (near a full season) and was a similar upside player to Buchholz. Granted Young was a top prospect himself, but his power and patience have never materialized. Young did have 5 more years of cost controlled service time before FA, but he hasn't had a WAR over 1 in any season, and a WAR over .5 in any full season, and has a negative WAR overall.

I'll address each point separately:

 

1) Boston could use a bat and additionally could use a SS to bridge the gap - Sure, the Res Sox could use a bat, but at what cost? Boston is currently sitting in first place in Baseball toughest division, with an offense that is 4th in Runs, 3rd in OPS, 6th in HR, and 4th in OBP - all with enduring a massive slump by Ortiz to start the season, a 3rd string SS getting almost 200 AB, and Lowell missing significant time. As such, I really don't see the Sox as NEEDING a bat. Furthermore, I think the Sox see Lowrie as their bridge-the-gap SS, a player who, ironically, reminds me a bit of Hardy. Anyways, while I like Hardy a lot and would love to see him playing SS in Boston this year, there's no way I part with Buchholz, who looks like he'll be a big part of the Red Sox future success, just to upgrade an offense that at the very least is not hindering the Red Sox playoff chances.

 

2) I could make the same argument you made about Hardy for Halladay... the Brewers would be huge losers WAR wise in that trade, even if Halladay is an 8 WAR player there's no making up that giving away 6 years of 3 top prospects, just 1 of those players has the potential to be more valuable in their controlled years than the 12 WAR we'd get. - There are 2 differences, as I see it: (1) First, is the situation. The Red Sox are in first place, with a good offense and Lowrie soon to return from injury. the addition of Hardy would likely not be the deciding factor in whether or not the Sox make the playoffs and how they fare therein. The same cannot be said for Halladay and the Brewers. The Brewers are currently a team on the fence. They could make the playoffs, ro could finish below .500 depending on how things fare. With Halladay, they immediately become the team to beat in that division and would have a good shot at the WC if they don't win it. Furthermore, even if they can make the playoffs without Halladay, I really don't see the brewers as World Series contenders without him. Simply put, he's a difference maker on that team, which brings me to my second point, (2) the player. Halladay is a generational pitcher, and arguably the best in the game today. Hardy, who I still like, is not - he is simply a good SS. In my opinion, you don't trade a cost-controlled potential ace (perhaps the most valuable commodity in baseball) for a good SS who may not be a clear difference maker in your temas quest for a championship. I would, however, trade a player like Buchholz for Halladay, an incredible talent and player who will make a difference, particularly for a team like the Brewers. Thus, I would expect the Brewers to be willing to part with Escobar/Gamel/Lawrie, as I would be to part with Buchholz, Lars, Bowden, etc.

 

3) In your opinion what would be a fair return for a player with a limited MLB track record like Buchholz? - Tough question, because there aren't really that many. Obviously Buchholz alone wouldn't be enough, but I would probably be unwilling to part with Buchholz for anything short of a stud pitcher like Lincecum, Halladay, or Johan (not now). Cost-controlled, top of the rotation pitching is probably the most valuable commodity in baseball. The best teams (except the Yankees and Cardinals) are defined by it. I don't know how much the Garza-Delmon comp applies. that was more like a prospect for prospect from strenght for weakness trade. I'm just shocked that Delmon hasn't panned out, particularly after a promissing rookie year.

[clancyphile]

I was not specifically referring to Halladay, but to the many proposals that have included the future 6 year starters I mentioned.

 

Those youngsters are as key to the success of the Crew as Prince, Ryan, Rickie, and others have been.

That is a good point.

 

However, I would argue that with Rickie's inability to avoid injuries, I think Escobar should be looked at more as a 2B - with JJ being kept around until Lawrie is ready to come up.

[snyttri]

It's probably bad business to try to assemble one of the best teams in baseball in Milwaukee when eighty-something wins can earn a chance at the World Series. But it may be worth trading away 2 of the top three prospects now because future fan support may leave Milwaukee no choice but to stick to their home grown players and forget about importing the best pitcher.

[pnanda]

I think you guys are overestimating the worth of Hardy. No way does Boston trade a potential #1 starter for an average/slightly above average ss. I know several Sox fans and none of them were in favor of picking up Hardy, especially for CB.

 

If they liked Hardy, there is no way they would offer CB. Theo is no dummy, he knows good pitching is rare, especially young and cheap pitchers. They were reluctant to include him for Johan Santana, why would they do it for Hardy.

 

Look at Boston and their pickups, they highly value OBP, Hardy doesn't meet that qualification. Add to that his inconsistent play, they can get much better for CB. Boston isn't hundered by payroll, they might go after Tejada or some other proven high priced veteran.

[PeaveyFury]

I was not specifically referring to Halladay, but to the many proposals that have included the future 6 year starters I mentioned.

 

But the point Al is that no one is offering Gamel or Escobar for a mediocre/rental guy like Washburn or Davis (or even Bedard, really), they're proposing them in trades for either truly top-notch guys like Halladay or another 6 year starter like Buchholz. There are no magic beans involved here.

[Invader3K]

Look at Boston and their pickups, they highly value OBP, Hardy doesn't meet that qualification. Add to that his inconsistent play, they can get much better for CB. Boston isn't hundered by payroll, they might go after Tejada or some other proven high priced veteran.

 

Good first post, welcome aboard. Tejada might actually make decent sense for Boston. He would just be a rental, and shouldn't cost too much. He's hitting .330 and still provides good defense. This all depends on whether or not the 'Stros face the reality that they are probably out of it anytime soon.

[monty57]

Much of baseball's statistical analysis is based on a "regression to the mean" way of thinking. If that has any relevance over half a season, JJ is due for a monster 2nd half. He has proven to be a good hitter and a good defender, and a big second half from him could be enough to push us into the playoffs.

 

That said, due to the presence of Escobar, if we have the opportunity to pick up a young stud pitcher for JJ, I think we have to take that shot. It may or may not help us this season, but over the course of the next 5-6 years, I'd be very happy to have another top-of-the-rotation starter on the Brewers, especially considering we'll still be set at SS.

 

The Red Sox may or may not be willing to part with Buchholz for Hardy, but this is the type trade we need to be looking for. At some point, a contending team in need of a SS who plays good defense with a power bat, and with some depth in their rotation will be willing to make a trade like this. If this trade doesn't materialize before July 31, we ride out JJ this season and hope the "regression to the mean" occurs, and then we trade him for a young starting pitcher in the offseason. Either way, I don't see JJ as our SS next year.

 

804Sox, you've made some good points. Would your opinion differ if JJ had an .800 OPS at this point instead of the .655 he's sitting at?

[logan82]

Much of baseball's statistical analysis is based on a "regression to the mean" way of thinking. If that has any relevance over half a season, JJ is due for a monster 2nd half.

Regression to the mean would be approaching, but never reaching, his projection. What you are talking about is things "evening out."

[jjkoestler]

I'm not sure how much this changes the Sox needs, but they just came to terms with Cuban phenom Jose Iglesias.

 

Cuban signing

 

Official word is expected later this month, but the Red Sox [team stats] and Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias have agreed to terms on an $8 million-plus deal, according to a source familiar with the talks.

 

The 19-year-old defector is considered to be a defensively gifted player with major league caliber glove skills. His offensive potential appears to be a question mark.

 

He has been heavily scouted since defecting in Canada a year ago. The Red Sox have been scouting him for months, and have been working him out at their complex in the Dominican Republic.

 

The scouting report on the 5-foot-10, 180-pound Iglesias, according to Baseball Prospectus, is "flashy glovework" with "fringe-average speed." Iglesias "makes the most of his ability, with instincts that enhance his tools and excellent makeup," the report said.

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1184016

[804Sox]

804Sox, you've made some good points. Would your opinion differ if JJ had an .800 OPS at this point instead of the .655 he's sitting at?

Hardy is about 27 years old, and is pretty much a known quantity offensively. As such, whether he was hitting for a .650 OPS or .900 OPS in the first half, I would value him as the .785-.815 OPS hitter that he has proven to be and expect him to hit at that level for the rest of the season. That's how statistics work - there is no magic "regression to the mean" or "correction." If you flip a quarter and get 100 heads in a row, the odds for the next toss are still 50/50. Similarly, whether a baseball player hits .200 or .400 over a first half, if he is a .300-type hitter he should be expected to hit .300 the rest of the way, not necessarily end up at .300 for the year.

 

w.r.t. Iglesias: he's only 19, and while his glove is reported to be elite right now, his bat does not seem to be MLB-ready. Of course I'm only going off what I've read - no insider info here. I've heard that he migh start with the GCL Sox, but could move quickly if he shows he can hit. His bat is kind of an unknown right now, it seems.

[TheCrew07]

You severely over value him and I'm going to leave it at that.

[804Sox]

You severely over value him and I'm going to leave it at that.

I assume this is directed at me. Are you saying that I overvalue Hardy by calling him a .785-.815 OPS hitter or that I overvalue Buchholz?

[TheCrew07]

Neither, you over value his trade value.

 

Gamel for Buchholz would be a fair deal value wise, neither you or I would probably want to make that deal, but recently history has shown that to be accurate. I assume you're familiar with Edwin Jackson's career as he's been in the AL East? He was best pitcher moved this past off-season in a trade. He was pitcher with very good stuff who hadn't quite put it all together, but he had been trending positively and still put a respectable 4.42 ERA, the only reason I didn't make a lot of noise for him was his K/9 became pedestrian last year and I wasn't sure what that meant. (I whined for Niemann over Wright and Green though, I've been enamored with the Rays approach to building a team for a couple of years now). I feel he had established that he was a solid #3 in most rotations, with a chance of being better, but the Tigers only had to give up Matt Joyce to get him. Part of that I'm sure is that the whole world knew with Price joining the rotation this season the Rays would have to move a pitcher at some point, which hurt Jackson's value.

 

In no way did I know or expect that Jackson would finally put it together, he's BB/9 dropped yet again and his K/9 has rebounded, he's been fantastic, but I want to make it clear that when he was traded I think most people viewed his as a #3 or #4 pitcher in most organizations. Matt Joyce has intriguing power potential and is LH, but he was a very small price to pay. I've already pointed out Garza for Young, then there's Volquez for Hamilton that stands out as well. Why am I pointing all this out? Because what's fair value for a value, and what fans want in a trade, are usually 2 different things.

 

For example, your initial proposal for some of our young starting pitching wasn't all that bad value wise, but most of us are going to be very hesitant to trade pitching when we don't have a solid MLB rotation to begin with, especially for a player like Penny. Was he worth the prospects? Probably, though 1 high ceiling at most in my opinion, but if I'm moving players that I think we *need*, I'm going to want a hell of a lot more back than Brad Penny. I really like Buchholz, always have, he's by far the best pitcher in AAA who might be available (I personally prefer Feliz, but I've beat that drum to death), but his value has been hurt by the fact that the Sox keep going a different way, sort of like what happened with Niemann in TB (his peripherals still stink, but the stuff is there) whom they couldn't find a taker for last season. In no way am I saying they are similar pitchers, just that getting stuck in AAA for more than one season hurts a prospect's value. In addition he's never pitched more than 150 innings, he looks to be on track to do that season, and it might not be a bad thing from health standpoint to reach that threshold for the first time at 24 years of age. However, he's doesn't appear to be stretched out enough for 200 IP, which again hurts his value. His AAA results are fantastic, his limited MLB track record not so much.

 

Hardy is approximately fair value for Buchholz, the Brewers may have to send another minor prospect now that he's become a glorified rental. Even so, he's a top 4 SS in all of baseball value wise, last season only Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins had a great WAR value, he's put himself in that top tier. Hardy's value has been established in 2007 and 2008, Buchholz has no established value outside of his potential, his true value is impossible to define, but history shows that MLB players carry much greater weight in trades, as they should. You don't want to make the deal for all of the correct reasons, and I agree with the way you view it, I feel similarly about moving top prospects for rental players, but that doesn't mean the proposed trade would not be fair value for both sides.

[804Sox]

I think we mostly agree, then, with my one caveat being that, as I see it, most teams have two or three prospects that your logic does not apply to, an "untouchable list" of sorts whose star potential for what will be a reasonable cost makes the team much less likely to trade them. I think Escobar and possibly Gamel fit this description, as well as Buchholz. In the past 5 years or so, we have only seen these types of prospects moved for (off the top of my head) guys like Santana, Miguel Cabrera, and now probably Halladay.

[lcbj68c]

I just want to say that I think Buchholz value goes down (not drastically or anything) when you have such depth at that position and have a need somewhere else. If Buchholz was so valuable, he'd be up in the MLB rotation. It's not that he's not valuable, he's just not valuable ENOUGH to the Red Sox THIS season. Same goes for Escobar and the Brewers. Now, when you have two teams that have such a need and two teams that have opposing depth, that's what makes this trade proposal equal. Buchholz, just because he may be a #1 to the Brewers, doesn't mean he should command trade value similiar to that of Santana, Halladay, Lincecum. His trade value is lowered because the Red Sox currently view him as the #7 guy on the depth chart. It's not as if he's not MLB ready, he is...yet he's still #7 on the depth chart.

 

Escobar for Buchholz straight up seems fair, IMO. And if it's the Brewers that come asking, a A level prospect throw in might be okay too, because they are the ones wanting it more. Escobar may be the #1 SS for the Red Sox for 162 games in 2010, while Buchholz would max around 35 games. I think there is comparative value betweeen those two players given each organization's needs and relative depth.

[LouisEly]

Bucholz has several years of team control for reasonable salary and "potential". Hardy is a major league known-quantity and is likely a type-A free agent that could bring in comp picks. Bucholz is unproven at the major league level and outside of one game has not performed well; Hardy costs a lot in salary and will command salary when he becomes a free agent soon. Each has their upside and downside.

 

For a team that can afford a high payroll, a major-league known quantity is an asset and salary is not much of a downside, plus the loss of a free agent will bring comp picks to build the farm system. For a team with an average payroll, several years of team control at a reasonable cost is an asset, as is an upper-level pitching prospect to a team with most of their starting pitching prospects in A-ball or coming off of major injuries/surgery (or both).

 

It's possible that Hardy has more value to Boston than the Brewers, and that Bucholz has more value to the Brewers than Boston. In which case it makes for a good trade. Either way, unless the Brewers completely tank the rest of July (unlikely given their weak schedule post-All Star game) they will need Hardy's leadership for a playoff run, so it is a trade best explored in the offseason.

[lcbj68c]

I agree with that, but if you are the Brewers, you want to get to him now, while Boston has the depth and see him as the #7 guy in the "depth chart". Not the off-season when their other flux of moves "force" him to the rotation and therefore he costs more?

[monty57]

Hardy is about 27 years old, and is pretty much a known quantity offensively. As such, whether he was hitting for a .650 OPS or .900 OPS in the first half, I would value him as the .785-.815 OPS hitter that he has proven to be and expect him to hit at that level for the rest of the season. That's how statistics work - there is no magic "regression to the mean" or "correction." If you flip a quarter and get 100 heads in a row, the odds for the next toss are still 50/50. Similarly, whether a baseball player hits .200 or .400 over a first half, if he is a .300-type hitter he should be expected to hit .300 the rest of the way, not necessarily end up at .300 for the year.

 

I agree that Hardy should be viewed as a .800ish OPS player for trade value, and I assumed that's how you'd answer, but I never like to assume. As far as flipping a quarter, while both are termed statistics, it's not exactly apples and oranges. Outside of some parlor tricks, if you flip a coin it is going to have a 50/50 chance of landing heads/tails. A .333 hitter is not automatically going to be 1-for-3 every day. Hitters are going to have ups and downs, sometimes significantly so, but after a significant amount of time, you expect someone with a proven track record to meet a certain bogey with some degree of variance.

 

Notice that I said "If that has any relevance over half a season, JJ is due for a monster 2nd half." I'd like to believe that Hardy will end up somewhere shy of an .800 OPS this season, but he's a fairly streaky hitter, even as far as streaky hitters go. In other words, he has a significantly large variance, and could have a huge 2nd half or a pathetic second half. Given the short time frame of a half a season, and not knowing any other contributing factors, it's impossible to predict which will occur. Given the randomness of "ups and downs," a full season is a generic representation of things "evening out" (if that's a preferable term), and since he's had more down's than up's in the first half, things often have a way of straightening themselves out. Assuming anyone with any degree of randomness will do anything over a short time frame is pure guesswork, but that's the way statistics work. That makes GMs who do "rent a player" trades look like geniuses or fools with a relatively equal degree of certainty.

 

That said, I agree that Boston would be taking on risk in this trade due to the shorter contract status, while the Brewers would be taking on risk due to the lack of a proven MLB track record. However, Boston would be dealing from an area of strength to an area of weakness, and likely would be upgrading their team for a potential World Series run. They also have deep enough pockets that they would be able to sign Hardy to a long-term deal, which is something the Brewers may not be abe to do at this point in his arbitration process. As a Brewers fan who tries to look both at the present and the future situations, I'd love the deal, as we have a replacement-in-waiting at SS and have a couple year gap before our pitching prospects are ready. I also realize that there are a lot of Brewers fans who would hate this trade. In that same light, I understand your reluctance to do a trade like this, while I'd bet there are a lot of Boston fans who would cheer it on.

[Teatoe993]

Link

 

Looks like Clay if finally getting the call up.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-40-36

 

Fangraphs had Buchholz listed as #38 on their list of Top 50 Trade Values. If we were just talking 2H09 & 2010, Hardy is probably worth more and would certainly be an upgrade for Boston, but as pointed out Buchholz could be a front end of a rotation guy for a number of years. He could be a bust too, but with only a year and a half of control left on JJ's contract he's worth more than JJ.

 

I agree with 804's analysis on wins per year added between the two, my only quibble would be - if Buchholz is worth 2 wins per year, aren't the wins in year 6 worth less today than a win in 2010? Rather than a simple arithmetic adding of wins, wouldn't you use a discounted value? Think of it as a discounted win value, much like a discounted cashflow analysis. The argument against would be he has the potential to be well north of a 2 win pitcher over the next 6 years so maybe you discount 4 wins in half to get to 2. Just curious how you would look at it.

 

I do think we probably have to move JJ in the offseason. Another reason to hope he has a big second half.