JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?

[MessiahRp]

I am of the belief that getting Halladay would cost us way too much especially with the fact that he has a no trade clause and part of his contract is that if he is traded he can demand a trade at the end of the season in which he was dealt. Considering he gave Toronto a discount, I'm sure that enticing him to break the no trade revolves around giving him a pricey extension.

 

That being said I think our best deal is with Boston. They have so much pitching both in the Majors and the Minors that even giving up a Buchholz doesn't damage their top tier that much. Also Hardy would be a major upgrade over Nick Green at SS and would allow the team to move Lowrie to 3B while Mike Lowell recovers (Boston's front office is worried Lowell might be completely done if he can't recover quickly from his current hip strain).

 

I know everyone thinks we should be able to pull in a lot for Hardy but Clay along with Yo would give us two front end long term aces we control for a while and would be incredibly inexpensive. It would open a spot up for Escobar to come up and play SS. Also diminishing Hardy's trade value is that he's going to be up for a real contract in the not so distant future which could get expensive and at the moment he's in the midst of a slow start this season.

 

Still I think this would be one trade we could make and years down the road be happy it was made because we obtained a long term piece to our rotation.

 

What do you guys think?

 

Rp

[TheCrew07]

I liked the idea before and still do, it wouldn't be a popular trade in most circles though.

[804Sox]

I liked the idea before and still do, it wouldn't be a popular trade in most circles though.

most circles of Red Sox fans . . .

[shelmark]

Hardy is batting .229 with an OBP under .300. Why on earth would the sox give up a top pitching prospect for that?

[paulmolitor4]

I've been all for this move for awhile. I would even be okay with parting with a lower level pitching prospect to get the deal done if Boston isn't inclined to deal Buchholz. I think Clay would be able to step in and help out right away, and as Messiah indicated he would not mortgage the future.

[TheCrew]

This would be a move better suited for the offseason imo.

[MessiahRp]

Hardy is batting .229 with an OBP under .300. Why on earth would the sox give up a top pitching prospect for that?

He's hitting .229 now but no way is he going to stay at that level and he's much better defensively than Green or Lugo have been. Once he heats up he'll be fine and I'm sure most GMs aren't thinking this will be his normal production level at this point (or we better hope they don't or we're going to be screwed in trying to move him and will have to hope and pray he is Type A once we let him walk).

 

Rp

[The Truth]

a few years ago, would you have traded Gallardo for a SS with a .230 BA and a history of injuries? No way does Boston go for that... and I doubt Hardy will heat up enough to make his end of season stats respectable.

[southpaw121505]

I'd love to have Buchholz and I'd do the deal for the long term benefit, but something about trading JJ right now scares me. I think he'll still end up with solid numbers closer to his norms and to get there he's going to need a few red hot months down the stretch, we all know he's capable of that.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Hardy and Salome for Bucholz is probably closer to what it would take to get a deal done. The Red Sox are undoubtedly looking for a Catcher of the future. I am sure they would ideally want to get a Victor Martinez, but he will cost an arm and a leg. Trading Bucholz from a position of depth and getting a short term upgrade in JJ Hardy and a potential long term upgrade at Catcher would probably be pretty enticing.

 

Not saying I would undoubtedly do a trade like that but I would spend a lot of time entertaining the idea of it.

[marty22]

Although the Sawx could probably resign him if they wanted to, you have to consider the fact that hardy will likely be a Type A FA after next year, and therefore must consider the value of the two picks in the trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

For the Boston fans out there, you should realize that Hardy hit a total of 50 HR in 07 and 08 and he's got the kind of swing that he could easily exceed 30 playing half his games in Fenway and he's not yet 27. So you wouldn't be getting some washed up has been. I think a big part of Hardy's issues this year is that he knows this is likely his last season as a Brewer and it's weighing on him since he's grown up in the Brewer organization. Besides if Bucholz was really that special, he'd be in Boston now. He's almost 25 so it's not like he's a phenom kid.

 

For Brewer fans who think Hardy's value has really sunk, remember back when Podsednik followed up a terrific 03 with a very mediocre 04 yet he still brought back a middle of the order hitter in Carlos Lee? Teams aren't going to evaluate Hardy based on just his 09 season.

 

I'd make that deal not because I think the Brewers would be fleecing Boston or because Bucholz would make a difference this year (I doubt he would) but because it's time to start the Alcides Escobar era and because I think Hardy's underachieving with Escobar ready to take his job.

[brewmann04]

I agree nobody going to take hardy right now ,but have to believe he be a guy who the Brewers look to move in the offseason.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Brewers could move JJ Hardy in the blink of an eye. He's still young, he's got a track record, and he plays a premium position...shortstop is a very tough spot for a lot of teams to fill.

 

I don't know if Boston would deal Buchholz or not, but I'm sure their management would love to add JJ Hardy...as they should be.

 

Good management won't let a bad half-season, offensively, override a very solid defender at a tough position, who has provided very good power over the prior two seasons. One hot month, and plenty of Brewers fans will start talking about dealing Escobar instead.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

If the Brewers really wanted this to happen, theyd probably have to be willing to take Julio Lugo off the Red Sox hands in order to get their foot in the door.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great post splitter... some people just seem to assume a player goes cold & not only is he untradeable, but he'll never hit again!!!!

 

Hardy's talent is unquestioned, and I severely doubt any MLB scouting department has long-term concerns about him.

 

 

If the Brewers really wanted this to happen, theyd probably have to be willing to take Julio Lugo off the Red Sox hands in order to get their foot in the door.

 

I sincerely doubt that. If the BoSox want to dump Lugo, the Brewers need to dump Hall.

[jjfanec]

I think the Brewers could move JJ Hardy in the blink of an eye. He's still young, he's got a track record, and he plays a premium position...shortstop is a very tough spot for a lot of teams to fill.

 

I don't know if Boston would deal Buchholz or not, but I'm sure their management would love to add JJ Hardy...as they should be.

 

Good management won't let a bad half-season, offensively, override a very solid defender at a tough position, who has provided very good power over the prior two seasons. One hot month, and plenty of Brewers fans will start talking about dealing Escobar instead.

This is spot on. Unlike fans who all too often come down overly hard on a struggling players, good management looks at past success and reasons why a player will turn it around. Hardy is a guy who as JohnBriggs pointed out hit 50 home runs the last two years and would seem to have a nice stroke for the monster. He is in his own head right now, but teams would jump all over him if he was available. A package of Hardy and Salome should net a nice pitcher and it is a trade we will more than likely need to make this off-season.

[804Sox]

For the Boston fans out there, you should realize that Hardy hit a total of 50 HR in 07 and 08 and he's got the kind of swing that he could easily exceed 30 playing half his games in Fenway and he's not yet 27. So you wouldn't be getting some washed up has been. I think a big part of Hardy's issues this year is that he knows this is likely his last season as a Brewer and it's weighing on him since he's grown up in the Brewer organization. Besides if Bucholz was really that special, he'd be in Boston now. He's almost 25 so it's not like he's a phenom kid.

 

For Brewer fans who think Hardy's value has really sunk, remember back when Podsednik followed up a terrific 03 with a very mediocre 04 yet he still brought back a middle of the order hitter in Carlos Lee? Teams aren't going to evaluate Hardy based on just his 09 season.

 

I'd make that deal not because I think the Brewers would be fleecing Boston or because Bucholz would make a difference this year (I doubt he would) but because it's time to start the Alcides Escobar era and because I think Hardy's underachieving with Escobar ready to take his job.

Since when does being blocked make you less of a phenom? 25 is hardly too old. Ryan Howard was blocked by Thome in Philly and didn't start the year in the Majors until his age 26 season.

 

Buchholz's problem is that he has options and can be stashed in the minors, unlike guys like Smoltz, Penny, and Wakefield. As I've written previously, Buchholz is not a minor league pitcher, he's a major league pitcher in the minor leagues. Were he in the Brewer's organization he would unquestionably be in the rotation right now, probably as the 2nd or third best starter on the team.

 

Also, I think your comments are telling with respect to the Brewer's leverage in this situation:

 

"Hardy hit a total of 50 HR in 07 and 08 and he's got the kind of swing that he could easily exceed 30 playing half his games in Fenway and he's not yet 27. So you wouldn't be getting some washed up has been."

[ . . . ]

"I'd make that deal not because I think the Brewers would be fleecing Boston or because Bucholz would make a difference this year (I doubt he would) but because it's time to start the Alcides Escobar era and because I think Hardy's underachieving with Escobar ready to take his job."

 

A bit contradictory. Here you tout Hardy's value, yet indicate that this trade is fair and should be made NOT because Buchholz is a talented player but because the Brewers should GET RID OF HARDY. When we account for your misconception, then, that Buchholz is anything less than an elite pitching prospect (note the word prospect, not saying he's an ace right now), it becomes obvious that Hardy is nowhere near enough of a return for the Sox to consider parting with Buchholz, a sentiment echoed countless times by national sprts and prospecting media outlets.

[TheCrew07]

If you believe in Fangraphs value system, the coming in to last season Prince Fielder (30) was of equal value to James Shields (29), then Hardy is easily worth a top prospect with no established track record, especially given that Boston has the means to resign him.

 

 

 

I value your opinion and really don't want to get caught up debating what pundits have to say, the whole east coast bias angle, or any of those side issues. In terms of straight value (emotion aside) that's a pretty reasonable deal for both side. I have no doubt that a great many Brewer fans and Red Sox fans alike would think the deal stunk. However Hardy is a already an established player with a WAR value in multiple seasons over 4.5... and at 4.9 last season, was the most valuable player on the team. For the Red Sox only Pedroia and Youkilis would have been better position players.

[dadofandrew]

Theo would not be at all bothered by a half-season of mostly bad luck. However, if they wanted to deal Clay, they could have been in on any number of solid vets. They like him, and will only deal him for a Santana/Halladay type, in my mind.

[TheCrew]

I think the sox would jump all over it if Doug only wanted Buchholz in return - but this is a move suited for the offseason or if the brewers fall completely out of it before the deadline. Doug wants to find players that are going to help the brewers make a run at post season baseball, Buchholz has struggled at the major league level and he is a great prospect but you can't count on him to make a run.

 

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen any national media outlets saying that Hardy wasn't enough of a return for Buchholz...... even googled it.

[brewcrewkid14]

I would love to do this deal and have been clamoring about it with Brewer fans who are friends for quite some time.

 

The thing you'd have to consider is that J.J. would be a huge asset to Boston because of one factor: Fenway Park. I can't think of how many balls J.J. hits that would not be held by that park, and you also have to consider the amount of flyballs he hits to deep left that would be easy singles/doubles at Fenway. If he became Boston's shortstop, he very well could put up Nomar type numbers for them so if we did make a trade like this with Boston, that would obviously need to be a part of the discussion in figuring what we would get in return.

[twobrewers]

Theo would not be at all bothered by a half-season of mostly bad luck. However, if they wanted to deal Clay, they could have been in on any number of solid vets. They like him, and will only deal him for a Santana/Halladay type, in my mind.

How dare you inject reason into others fantasies!

 

Melvin loves Escobar. Melvin has stated several times that Escobar is MLB ready. Melvin would trade Hardy for Buchholz in a heartbeat. This has already been discussed, on this board, for a lifetime. Unless you are willing to include another top prospect going to Boston (Peralta), you might as well stop wondering.

[804Sox]

If you believe in Fangraphs value system, the coming in to last season Prince Fielder (30) was of equal value to James Shields (29), then Hardy is easily worth a top prospect with no established track record, especially given that Boston has the means to resign him.

 

 

 

I value your opinion and really don't want to get caught up debating what pundits have to say, the whole east coast bias angle, or any of those side issues. In terms of straight value (emotion aside) that's a pretty reasonable deal for both side. I have no doubt that a great many Brewer fans and Red Sox fans alike would think the deal stunk. However Hardy is a already an established player with a WAR value in multiple seasons over 4.5... and at 4.9 last season, was the most valuable player on the team. For the Red Sox only Pedroia and Youkilis would have been better position players.

Look, I've stated previously that I'm a big Hardy fan. I think he's one of the best SS in the league in terms of his combination of offensive production and a good glove. And if you're going to use WAR, that's fine. I agree that last year Hardy was more valuable than Buchholz. Same with the year before, and most likely by the end of this year too. The difference is, and the thing that makes Buchholz so valuable, is that he is cheap now, and under team control for 6 years, whereas Hardy is only under control for 1.5, after which he will be making a lot of money (probably more than the "value" of his winshares, if you trst that equation)

 

The other thing that I think is overstated is Buchholz's struggles at the major league level. He only has 18 starts under his belt and less than 100 innings pitched for his career, so we're definitely working with a small sample size with respect to his production. Furthermore, he has dominated the minors since his demotion and in limited MLB work has already thrown 2 complete games, including a no-hitter, while averaging almost 9 k/9 over his career. This suggests to me that he has the talent not only to be a successful pitcher, but a dominant pitcher at the major league level. He has also reduced his walk rate considerably this year in the minors, perhaps "fixing" the inconsistancy that plagued him most in the majors.

 

Just as a hypothetical, lets say that Hardy hits his prime in the next year and a half and is a 5 war player over that time. He will give the team that owns him 7.5 wins above the replacement player (Nick Green). If Buchholz fails to live up to his expectations, he might only be, on average, a 2 war player (4.50 ERA?) over his 6 years, giving the team 12 wins at a very reasonable cost (he won't make much in arby if he's only a 2 war player). Even if Buccholz shows no improvement, I think the 5-6 years of cost-controlled, league-average pitching is more valuable than 1.5 years of Hardy. (If you don't think average pitching is valuable, just look at the contract you guys gave Suppan . . .) However, like many talent evaluators, I anticipate improvement from Buchholz with the possibility that he becomes a top-of-the-roatation starter.

 

ps. in response to TheCrew, I think Law or Olney or somebody like that mentioned the Buchholz-Hardy rumors in a chat or blog. It was posted in the previous Clay Buchholz thread from a couple weeks ago. Beyond that, he was ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball by BA just a year ago, before he exhausted his prospect eligibility, so that gives an indication of his value too.

[TheCrew07]

I don't disagree with your assessment of value over the course of the their controlled time at all, but that's not really the point. Boston could use a bat and additionally could use a SS to bridge the gap, in addition to 2 draft picks if they don't resign him. Hardy is one of the top young SS in the game, as far trade value, they are relatively equal. I also agree that pitching is King, but much like Hughes in NY, people wonder he's not good enough to pitch in your rotation and someone like Penny is a better option? I'm trying to be as unbiased as possible here, maybe the Brewers have to send a lesser prospect as well, but it shouldn't take much more than Hardy.

 

I could make the same argument you made about Hardy for Halladay... the Brewers would be huge losers WAR wise in that trade, even if Halladay is an 8 WAR player there's no making up that giving away 6 years of 3 top prospects, just 1 of those players has the potential to be more valuable in their controlled years than the 12 WAR we'd get.

 

In your opinion what would be a fair return for a player with a limited MLB track record like Buchholz? Delmon Young was good enough to pull Matt Garza. Garza actually had 26 starts in MLB (near a full season) and was a similar upside player to Buchholz. Granted Young was a top prospect himself, but his power and patience have never materialized. Young did have 5 more years of cost controlled service time before FA, but he hasn't had a WAR over 1 in any season, and a WAR over .5 in any full season, and has a negative WAR overall.