Solutions to Our Problems: Present and Future...

[JustABitOutside]

I think being competitive year in and year out is more important for the Brewers than winning one World Series, especially from the fans perspective. I want my team playing competitive baseball in August and September. That is what makes it fun. If the Brewers are out of it by the All-Star break, I will still follow the team, but you can sure bet the casuals who support the team when the team is good won't be going through the gates. The Brewers as a small market team need to keep the fans interested year long in order to support a high payroll.

 

A CC Sabathia trade won't occur every year, and there is no reason to sell the farm this year to try to get there. The performance of a player like Halladay would be an improvement over Bush/Parra; but there is no guarantee it would be a difference from the playoffs and not. The current team could make the playoffs without another pitcher; I know that isn't the popular opinion, as everyone wants a better pitcher. Or if the Brewers trade away the future for a Halladay type, he could get injured, or not perform to expectations, and still miss the playoffs, with next year being the teams last shot in the 8-10 years (if Escobar/Gamel are gone). In 2011/2012 the Brewers have a good chance to make the playoffs as well; and I as a fan would prefer 6 years of playoff contention, to 2 years of being a playoff contender and a slight increase in the probability of a World Series ring. Maybe I am in the minority on this issue, but with baseball being such a long season, I can't take 100 loss seasons.

 

Recent history with the Cardinals in 2006 show you don't need to be the best team to win it all, just get to playing important games in September, and things can roll your way.

[joepepsi]

I think being competitive year in and year out is more important for the Brewers than winning one World Series, especially from the fans perspective. I want my team playing competitive baseball in August and September.

That's the Twins model. Melvin often cited them as the model in his early years with the Brewers. You stay competitive, hope for a season with some luck, take your chances in the playoffs. Like the Twins, one year you limp along and win 83, the next everything swings your way and you win 96.

[monty57]

JustABitOutside,

 

First, welcome to the board. Second, I don't think you're a minority around here in wanting to build a team that is a playoff contender for a long time rather than "mortgaging the farm" to win it all in one year. I'm with you on that, and I know a lot of others are as well.

 

That said, occassionally there comes a time when a big trade should be done. The question is always: "Is this that time?" Last year, we traded some non-integral chips away for Sabathia in order to break the 26-year playoff drought. Plus, if Sheets had stayed healthy, we had a legitimate World Series contending team. Now, that has made some believe we should do this every year, which obviously isn't the case. So, would it be worthwhile to trade some of our top young talent to acquire a player like Halladay? That spurs a lot of debate, and I personally think we should wait a couple of weeks to see where we stand. This will give us a little more time to see if Bush will be healthy and if Parra can find the strike zone. If both of those things happen, we could win the division or the wild card without giving up six years of Gamel and others. Also, it will give us more time to see if we should be a buyer or a seller, and to see what injuries pop up around the league. We know the Cubs have talent, but will they begin to put it together? Are the Cardinals for real, and are they going to make another big move (like for Holliday) that will put them a step above us? For all we know, we could be ten games back of the Cardinals by trade deadline, in which case I'd much rather see us trade Cameron, Hoffman, Looper, Kendall, Counsell to help us in the future than trade prospects in a futile playoff push.

 

We are definitely a team that needs to build from within, and making too many trades of prospects for rental players will seriously impair our future. As I said earlier in the thread, I'd be upset if we sell and the division is won by a team with 86 wins, but I'd be more upset if we trade away the likes of Gamel/Escobar/Lawrie for a rental player. Those guys are the ones who will keep us in playoff contention for the foreseeable future, and who will keep us from having another 20+ year playoff drought. Halladay may be one exception to the rule, as he is an elite talent, and is signed through next year. I just think we need to have a little more patience to see where things are nearer the end of July.

[topper09er]

I would rather be the Marlins than the Twins. Come one guys, sure its fun for the 6 months of the regular season if you alwas have a competitive team, but its even more fun for the other 6 months of the year when you are the world series champs. I want a WS, when the Packers won the only championchip of any team I support it was so glorious I want it again with the brewers.

[Ennder]

I would rather be the Marlins than the Twins. Come one guys, sure its fun for the 6 months of the regular season if you alwas have a competitive team, but its even more fun for the other 6 months of the year when you are the world series champs. I want a WS, when the Packers won the only championchip of any team I support it was so glorious I want it again with the brewers.

The Marlins got insanely lucky, I wouldn't want to go down that path at all.

[topper09er]

I mean I would rather make the playoffs 2 times in 17 seasons with 2 WS wins than make the playoffs 10 times in 17 season with 0 WS wins.

[monty57]

But how do you guarantee a World Series? The Yankees had the best team in the majors for a lot of years that they didn't win. The Cubs were the best team, at least in the NL, last year and they got swept in the first round. Actually, that's two years running for them, with two pretty darn good teams.

 

If there was a sure-fire way of guaranteeing a World Series, I'd be all for it, but unfortunately there isn't. The best way to give yourself a chance to win the World Series is to get to the playoffs a lot. The best way (in my mind) for a team like the Brewers to get to the playoffs a lot is to draft well, develop those players and sign the "cornerstone" players to long-term deals. Fill in holes by dealing from areas of strength to areas of weakness. Occasionally, when the stars line up right, make a big trade that could push you over the top, but since the probability of it getting you a World Series win if you are not already a World Series contender is slim at best, don't mortgage your entire future on one or two big moves.

 

The Brewers are getting to the point that they can be very good for a long time if they don't run into tremendously bad luck, or do something really dumb. They shouldn't be in a situation where they have to overpay players like Suppan, as they will be able to get that caliber player from their system. In the not-too-distant future (3-4 years), they'll likely even be able to trade pitchers to fill other areas of need - it's not a certainty, but it's a likelihood.

 

Maybe, just maybe, acquiring Halladay will make us the team to beat. However, we still will be very streaky offensively and will still be relying on some combination of Bush, Suppan, Looper, Parra to pitch 60% of our games. The Cubs would still have a much more talented pitching staff than ours, and they might start to remember how to win games. There are a lot of question marks that signing one starter won't answer. Of course it would help us make the playoffs this season. It may even help our chances next year, but it would also greatly hamper our chances of making the playoffs for the following 6-7 years.

 

I, too would LOVE the feeling of the Brewers winning a World Series. However, while adding Halladay would make that slightly more likely, at this point I don't think it's worth it if it means giving up Gamel/Escobar/Parra type talent. Now, if we go on a little hot streak here and are 4-6 games in first place near the end of July, my thoughts may change. Again, for a move that would have that much future impact, I think a little patience would be prudent. Let's see where we are in a few weeks.

[Ennder]

To be fair I don't want to follow the Twins model either. There are years where taking a stab at a player and stepping backwards for a year or two is worth it. I don't know if this is such a year just yet though.

[topper09er]

That said, occassionally there comes a time when a big trade should be done. The question is always: "Is this that time?" Last year, we traded some non-integral chips away for Sabathia in order to break the 26-year playoff drought. Plus, if Sheets had stayed healthy, we had a legitimate World Series contending team.

How is this year different from last year?? Gallardo is just as good as Sheets, Braun and Fielder are having better years, the rest of the team is pretty much the same and we now have playoff experience under our belts. Also, we are 1 game out of first and the Cubs arent running away with the division. If we contend for the NL central title there is still a chance we take 2nd but still make the playoffs, whereas last year we were basically competeing for the WC only.

 

Also, Prince will be gone after next year (unless he has a near death experience and realizes there is more to life than making as much money as possible and after you having $50M you should probably worry about being happy rather than accumulating more money, fire Scott Boras and resign with the brewers for 15M/year instead of with the Mets for 20M/year) so trading Matt LaPorta was actaully an integral part of our team and he would have been the 1st baseman of the future.

 

 

I also think that rarely a team is good enough to win the WS with the same team they broke camp with because other teams are adding talent to fill their gaps and you need to keep pace. That is why i think the teams that always draft well and build for the future by always accumulating prospects (A's, Twins) never actaully win the WS because you usually need that extra player to replace your biggest weakness to win it all. That is why I think your best chance at winning the WS involves drafting and getting prospects, but also, at some time deciding this is finally the team you have been building and you need to improve it by getting some veterans through trades. Maybe even Billy Beane has finally figured this out when he did that for Matt Holiday. I think if you always worry about 3 years from now you may stay competitive but rarely be good enough win it all.

[topper09er]

To be fair I don't want to follow the Twins model either. There are years where taking a stab at a player and stepping backwards for a year or two is worth it. I don't know if this is such a year just yet though.

I totally agree, I am not saying this is the time, I think it may be, but whenever we decide it is the time we should take a shot like we did last year. I do think that it has to be now or next year because we will not be able to replace Prince's bat.

[joepepsi]

To be fair I don't want to follow the Twins model either. There are years where taking a stab at a player and stepping backwards for a year or two is worth it. I don't know if this is such a year just yet though.

I agree. I think this is why most here agree with the Sabathia deal. Some years players like CC aren't available. This may be one of those years. It's important to read the market right too, and not make moves just to make them. Going after some middling rotation guy like Byrd doesn't really make the team any better unless one of the starters comes down with an injury. Other than Halladay it's difficult to see who might be available that would have a CC like impact. So the smartest move this year may be making no move.

 

The first two months of this season the Brewers led all teams in % of quality starts. Every team goes through a down time; every pitching staff has a dead period. Gallardo, Suppan, and Looper have not been pitching badly over the last few weeks. Getting Bush and Parra back strong may be the best chance to get the team playing .600 ball from here on out.

 

They are 7-9 since Bush last appeared. They could have easily been 9-7 with competent pitching every game, like they had in the Spring.

[endaround]

The pitching hasn't changed that much, just their luck. Back in mid May I wan't alone talking about how the Brewers pitching was more luck and defense than skill. The luck's dried up.

[monty57]

Last year we weren't fighting for second when the trade was made, we were right there with the Cubs. Their hot second half, combined with our team's near collapse made the acquisition of CC the only thing that got us to the playoffs.

 

I'm not saying this isn't the year to "go for it," and I'm not arguing against occasionally "going for it." However, by doing this too often, you can turn a good farm system into a bad farm system pretty quickly. Judging by Melvin's comments on LaPorta, he seems to have been dubbed a trading chip from the day he was drafted. Personally, I thought Fielder would be traded for a pitcher that could help us long-term and LaPorta would be his successor, but that's obviously not the case. However, if we now trade, say Gamel, Escobar, young pitcher for Halladay, we had better sign Hardy and Fielder long term, and hope McGehee isn't a fluke. Hardy is going to be in his final year of arby next year, so a long-term deal would be really expensive, and as you alluded to, Fielder isn't going to sign long-term unless something really changes. Honestly, in two years, our lineup could be 1B Errecart/Kjeldgaard, 2B a rushed Lawrie, SS Brewer, 3B Green, LF Braun, CF Cain, RF any of a number of people. Do you think Braun's yelling for help now... wait until he's part of that lineup. Conversely, we could lock Escobar and Gamel into Braun-type deals and have two more "cornerstones" for eight years.

 

Therefore, after last year's "going for it," we kind of shot ourselves in the foot as far as "going for it" again soon. If we trade substantial prospects away right now, we will have closed what I see to be a fairly long-term window into a "this year and next year" window. I understand that not everything remains the same, a lot will change, prospects won't pan out, etc., but there's also a real risk that the Brewers still won't make the playoffs or will get knocked out early. Maybe Halladay, Yo, Prince or Braun gets hurt. Maybe Prince gets the "Carlos Lee curse" by hitting in the HR derby and flails away all 2nd half. Maybe Yo's arm can't stand up to a full season. Maybe Hart and Hardy continue their hitting vacation, or McGehee, Counsell revert back to what was expected of them. Again, maybe the Cubs realize that they're "supposed to be" a 100-win team and go on a second half tear like they have the previous two seasons.

 

Pinning everything on one season can feel really good or really bad. All I'm asking for is that we wait a couple of weeks to see how Parra and Bush look when they come back, and make sure we don't have a significant injury in that time. If we're potentially talking about trading away players that are expected to make up the nucleus of this team for the next 6-8 years, I hope Melvin has the patience to be really, really sure it's going to get us to the promised land.

[lukevan]

We were 5 games behind the Cubs last July 9.

Also, Prince will not necessarily be gone after next year. We have him under control through the 2011 season.

[TheCrew07]

How is this year different from last year?? Gallardo is just as good as Sheets, Braun and Fielder are having better years, the rest of the team is pretty much the same and we now have playoff experience under our belts. Also, we are 1 game out of first and the Cubs arent running away with the division. If we contend for the NL central title there is still a chance we take 2nd but still make the playoffs, whereas last year we were basically competeing for the WC only.

The difference is everything aligned perfectly for the Brewers to back into the playoffs last season. For some reason people seem to forget how tenuous that playoff appearance was, it took a 2nd epic collapse by the Mets and CC going every 4th day for it to happen. The same talk of WS favorites popped up around here last year after acquiring CC and it wasn't anymore true than it is this year.

 

I love Yo, but for goodness sake he pitched 24 innings last season, how far can we reasonably assume he'll go? Is it worth jeapordizing his future to ride him this season? Right now he's the only established talent we have in the rotation, and for the team's future. He's far too valuable to treat like he's a 27 year old work horse pitcher, he hasn't had a chance to build into it, All I ask is that people take a step back and try to be as objective as possible. This season entirely hinged on Yo and Parra coming into it. As good as Yo is, he's still not very economical with this pitches, and Macha has pushed him to high pitch counts trying to save the bullpen, but it looks like the organization is reconsidering that based on the some of the comments made during the broadcast in Yo's last start. That would be a positive development from my perspective at least.

 

I ask why does this year have to be the year? We can have the same core next season if we want it, some vets like Cameron and Kendell will be gone but we will have Fielder, Weeks, and Hart through 2011 and Hardy through 2010 if we wish. We could even have the same pitching staff if we want it. The big difference would be that Yo would have had a season to get his feet under him and we'll know exactly where we stand with Parra by season's end.

 

After 2007, 2008, and 2009 I think it's pretty safe to say that this offense is all it's ever going to be, there will be extreme peaks and valleys through out every season. I think that's true of any offense around the league, but my gut feeling is that the Brewers are extreme in that sense. I thought that maybe Yost rode the guys too hard leading to an epic collapse in both 2007 and 2008, but now I'm beginning to think that's just the kind of team this core has become. When a pitching lapse coincides with the slumping offense, things get real ugly for 2-3 weeks, or in this case, well over a month. When the team had it's really hot month to turn the start of the season around, when the hitting was down the pitching was up (Yo hitting HRs to win 2 games), and when the pitching was down the offense scored enough runs to win.

 

I still believe that hot stretch skewed perspective of what this team really is... this is an average to slightly above average team, certainly not a team that's 1 player from the WS. I'm uncomfortable with St. Louis being used as an example because while their pitching that season was absolutely horrible as a team during the regular season, once they got to the post season and shortened the rotation their pitching was the best of any playoff team which included Suppan having his career year. If I was confident that Yo has over 180 innings in his arm this season I'd feel better about making a solid move for pitching. He's already pitch 109 innings this season, I honestly have no idea how far he can go, or if it's in his best interest to be allowed to push himself that far. Last year I thought we'd be able to shorten our rotation to Sheets, Sabathia, and at worst Bush, but I was hoping Parra would have continued to pitch well, I never even considered Yo. Who can we can count on to shorten our rotation to this season?

 

In a nut shell the difference between this year's team and last year's team is entirely the starting pitching. Yo isn't working late into games on reasonable pitch counts, Bush and Parra became ineffective for a while, Looper and Suppan have been about what we should have expected. I'm not sure how the Phillies' rotation from last season keeps getting dragged into the conversation as they were actually very good. Hamels was a stretched out ace (something Yo is not at this point), and they had 4 starting pitchers with ERAs in the mid 4s or better, Moyer actually pitched like a solid #2.. In fact, they finished right behind Milwaukee in total pitching last season, but they've had one of the NL's top offenses forever.

 

I'm not surprised by the lack of patience around here, but I am a little surprised by the lack of objectivity regarding our current team and the direction the organization is headed. I completely understand that many people around here don't care to follow the minors at all, but we really have it going on down there, Jeffress aside. We're well positioned for the present (we're competitive) and for the future, a little patience with Yo and Parra and we might be in a better position next year than we are today. I know people tend to frame competitive windows around the position players, but I think history bears out that the true competitive window revolves around a team's pitching. Just a quick look at the playoff teams the last 10 years make it pretty obvious, the one notable exception was St. Louis, but in the post season they matched up very well pitching wise with that shortened rotation. Teams tend to have the most success when they have their best pitching... the Phillies and Brewers make a pretty good case last season... 2 offenses that had done pretty well in previous seasons (very well in the Phillies case), but we made it the year our pitching was the best it's been, and they won the World Series in the year their pitching was the best it's been.

[pebadger]

And that.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm not surprised by the lack of patience around here, but I am a little surprised by the lack of objectivity regarding our current team and the direction the organization is headed. We're well positioned for the present (we're competitive) and for the future, a little patience with Yo and Parra and we might be in a better position next year than we are today. I know people tend to frame competitive windows around the position players, but I think history bears out that the true competitive window revolves around a team's pitching.

I don't think anyone is advocating trading our best prosepcts every year to make a run at the playoffs. We can debate whether it was wise last year, but I can understand why it was worth a shot. But as you said, quality pitching is usually what gets you rings, or at least a legit shot. I believe the Brewers need to walk a delicate line. Acquire a true top of the rotation type starter for at least a four year contract without literally giving away the farm. I don't want to trade top talent for a rent-a-pitcher again.

 

(Still haven't heard if it's realistic in MLB trades to trade for Holliday and extend his contract at the same time.) That still makes sense to me. Wrap him up for 4 years, and send over Hardy, Suppan, Heether, and Hurricane. Or something close to that.

[monty57]

FV, I don't know it it's true, but I heard Halladay actually has a clause that if he is traded he can opt out of his contract after this season, making it truly a rent-a-player. As far as locking him up, I think that's done all the time. One instance I remember off hand was Johan Santana. He would only accept a trade to the Mets if they would sing him long term. I don't know if Halladay would accept a trade to the Brewers, and if so, if he would opt out of his contract at the end of the season, or if he would demand a long term deal (probably in the CC range).

[DonMoney4Mgr]

I believe the solutions lie in pitching prospects within our system. The Brewers are a small to mid market and need to behave like one. I am hoping Melvin doesn't succumb to pressure from the fans, talk shows etc., and mortgage the future for one pitcher this year. We have other issues too. An inconsistant lineup, an overachieving bullpen, and most concerning; a ton of money committed to mediocre or below average talent (Hall, Kendall, Cameron, Riske, Suppan). That's about 35M right there - not money well spent.

 

I would be all for trades involving the 3-H club (Hall, Hardy, and Hart), but what can we expect in return? Not Halladay, Bedard, or Vazquez. I don't know enough about minor league prospects, but what about a Buckholz type. A pitcher that could maybe crack the rotation next year, and that we could control for several more.

 

In addition, I would pay whatever it takes to keep Braun and Fielder together. That way in 2011, or 2012 when our pitching blossums, we can still have some offense to go along with it. All this can happen with a payroll within reason. IMO the offensive production we are getting from anyone other than Braun and Fielder we can replace frugally through our own prospects or the Gabe Kaplers of the world.

[joepepsi]

The smartest move is to play this season out and try and flip Hardy or Hart for some solid pitching prospects.

[MNBrew]

I see two main problems that need solutions:

 

1. Poor production

2. Ugly, disproportionate salaries

 

The combination of these two elements points to our biggest roster "criminals": Hall, Suppan, & Cameron.

 

- Sure, Cameron's hot streaks are amazingly. But the other 4+ months of the season, he's worthless at the plate.

- Suppan's not any worse than Looper. But since Suppan's making $12M and Looper's making $5M, Suppan's by far the bigger problem.

 

Solutions:

 

- Have a shrewd long-term plan.

- Keep developing top-level prospects, either to take over roster/playing spots or to use as attractive assets.

- Improve the rotation. Without another legit #1 or #2 starter, it'll take catching lightning in a bottle to make the playoffs. Yost's '07 approach is a reminder that ignoring your weaknesses and relying on other to fail is a recipe for disappointment.

- Don't create an equal number of other problems when solving one problem.

- Don't wait too long to trade higher-risk assets (Hall & Capuano, for instance).

 

I don't think trading Hart's a good idea because they have no suitable replacement.

I like Hardy but sooner or later you have to either play Escobar or use him as a tradeable asset.

If Halladay is really fully locked in through '10, then he's an asset worth making a serious play for. This current rotation won't get us back to the playoffs.

The continued abundance of high K-rate on the roster needs to be fixed. Hall being on the bench helps. Cameron, Hardy?. . . .

[Baldkin]

Calling Cameron a problem at all is simply ridiculous.

 

He's way underpaid for what he brings to the table (see Torii Hunter's contract - who is a .800 OPS CF signed for 18 million a year through 2012, and is 33 this year). Amazing defense and above average OBP and Power numbers, especially for a CF.

 

Do you not remember watching Brady Clark play CF? Or hit?

[bando1234]

I guess Im just looking at the 2nd half right now. I dont want any wild trades that would we would give away half the farm. I would love to see them bring Escobar up to play 2nd in the second half & letting him leadoff. I say give him the chance right now.

[zzzmanwitz]

They tried Escobar at 2B for a few games already in Nashville and it didn't go that well. Escobar will only play SS for the Brewers.

[dragoon84]

Counsell ($1MM) will be gone

 

We keep saying this every year.

I'll take Counsell on my bench any time. Guy gets on base and plays great D, he's an excellent value and a sound player.