Solutions to Our Problems: Present and Future...

[tosabrewfan]

I don't get the unfounded optimism about "the future." The way I see it, if you can trade some prospects this year (including Gamel or Escobar) for a pitcher like Halladay (a top-level starter with 1.5 years left on his contract) you should do it. Here is my reasoning:

 

1. The NL Central is a mess this year and we have a better than average chance of making the playoffs, but we can't advance beyond the first round without at least 2 top-level pitchers.

2. No matter how good Gamel or Escobar can be, I don't think that you can count on the team ever having a better 3-4 hitter combination than Braun and Fielder. Halladay would allow you to compete during two seasons that you have both Braun and Fielder.

3. We should sign a pitcher before Gallardo reaches arbitration - for obvious reasons.

4. If the goal is to win a championship, mid-market teams are going to have to accept some down years. (I am assuming that the goal is to win a championship, not to consistently field an above-average team similar to last years").

5. The Brewers are going to need to find pitching in the off-season even if they don't trade for a pitcher during this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

While I'm inclined to agree with the assessment that Hart lacks the plate discipline to evolve into an All-Star caliber player, Corey's on pace to obliterate his personal-best BB total. He already has 30 this season (over 333 PA), and only needs 7 more free passes to establish a new high. Fwiw, applying his current BB rate to a 'full season' of 600 PA yields 54 walks.

 

If anything, I've been very encouraged by Hart's progress this season (as opposed to being further entrenched in the belief that his 2007 was a fluky season).

[Baldkin]

we can't advance beyond the first round without at least 2 top-level pitchers.

That simply isn't true. Ask the Phillies. Would it help our chances? Sure. Don't forget we still have on our team, the pitcher who won our only playoff game of the last 25 years as well in Dave Bush.

 

But in my opinion, the goal needs to be to win consistently and be in or around the playoffs every year. What it comes down to is would you rather be the A's or the Indians over the last 10+ years?

[topper09er]

Since it is recent news how valuable would Roy Halladay be to the brewers, what is he worth giving up assuming he would come here? How good would we be if for the rest of this season plus next year we have a core of Braun/Fielder + Halladay/Gallardo? I think some people are losing sight of the goal of winning the world series. We are a small market team, we cannot assume that just because we have a dedicated owner we can become a team that competes every sinlge year. Since Billy Beane took over the A's have made the playoffs in 5 of his 12 seasons with 0 WS appearances, and the Twins have made the playoffs 4 times over the same span with 0 WS appearances. Every small market team wants to be like the A's/Twins, but I would rather have 1-2 playoff appearances and 1 WS appearance per decade, then just hovering around .500 every year and always having a chance at the wild card but never having enough depth to win in the playoffs. At some point we need to decide now is the time and dont worry about the future and assume we will be bad in the future. I thought that had finally come for the first time in my life when we traded prospects for Sabathia and went for it, and now it seems like some people dont want that anymore.

 

We need to realize that between now (next 1-3 years) and later (3-5) years we can either try to win the WS in one of those times and be bad the other or just be competitive the whole time and maybe make the playoffs when other teams have down years but never be dominant enough to win it all. Then we need to decide which core is better, our current team with the addition of some key veterans (like Halladay for Gamel and Escobar) or our prospects + talent we can get by trading our current players (Fielder, Hart, Hardy). I think it is a close call, but if we could sell the farm for Halladay it is worth considering. I just get annoyed when people say I told you so about some trade, like Sabathia. Yes, if we kept Laporta we could trade him now but we also would not have made the playoffs last year. We cannot always think about the future, at some point we need to decide if now is our best shot and then take it.

[Baldkin]

Adding a second stud pitcher in no way shape or form guarantees a World Series appearance. Guys get hurt (See: Sheets, Gallardo, Peavy.... ), teams with two great pitchers get beaten - see the Cubs last year.

 

Throwing away our chances in 2011, 2012, and 2013 to improve our shot at a World Series this year by what... 5%? 6%? 10%?

[tosabrewfan]

Throwing away our chances in 2011, 2012, and 2013 to improve our shot at a World Series this year by what... 5%? 6%? 10%?

How is trading a few of our prospects now "throwing away our chances in 2011, 2012 and 2013?" My reasoning above is that once Gallardo is in arbitration, and Fielder is gone, it is not likely that we will have the means to replace all of our current offensive production and sign another stud pitcher.

 

By your own reasoning, how much does not making a trade this season improve our chances to win a World Series in the 2011-2013 timeframe 5%? 6%? 10%?

[logan82]

tosabrewfan wrote:

My reasoning above is that once Gallardo is in arbitration, and Fielder is gone, it is not likely that we will have the means to replace all of our current offensive production and sign another stud pitcher.

Which is why we need all of our top young talent in the minors to cheaply replace our current MLB players.

[joepepsi]

I would probably trade anybody in the organization for Halladay except Gallardo, Braun, and Prince. This assumes he wouldn't demand a trade after this season....can 5/10 guys still demand to be traded at the end of a season in which they've been traded?

[Ennder]

I would trade Gamel for Halladay as well and I'm a 'prospect guy'. The fact that Halladay helps next year as well is what makes the deal for me, the fact that Gamel might end up at 1B which cuts a lot into his value just adds some icing on the cake for the deal.

[TheCrew07]

Again people are getting caught up in 1 for 1 replacements where the replacement player isn't as productive as the original.

 

The drop in Production from Hardy to Escobar, and Fielder to whomever can be made up in upgrades elsewhere... like 2B, 3B, C, RF, and CF. A lineup like the following would be as solid top to bottom as we've ever had.

 

Cain - CF (less BBs but higher BA than predecessor, OBP likely a wash, probably less HRs, defensively maybe a slight downgrade?

Weeks -2B (could be a huge upgrade over himself)

Gamel - 1B (slight down grade from Fielder offensively, much better defender)

Braun - LF (should keep getting better towards his peak)

Green - 3B (much better production than Hall, steady but unspectacular in the field)

Salome/Lucroy - C (huge offensive upgrade over Kendell, 20 HR potential in both players)

McGehee/Gindl/Dennis/Whomever - RF (maybe a slight upgrade over Hart, Gindl and Dennis both bat LH)

Escobar - SS (will hit for a better average, probably not as much power, walk less, but will steal bases and play better D)

Pitcher

 

Don't get hung on the order itself or the positions, I just threw it together, the point is that there isn't a single "out" in the lineup except for the pitcher's spot. Lawrie is obviously an impact bat that will likely figure in there someplace as well (maybe he ends up at 3B if Green is traded). The point is, take out Hardy and Fielder and I still like that line up. The only wildcard production wise is Hart, any of the 3 players I listed would outperform him today, but if he gets back up around .280 with 20 HRs I'm not sure how much of an upgrade we'd get there. We don't have a prospect with plus plus power potential like fielder in A ball or above at this time.

 

edit. figured out the formatting issue.

[topper09er]

Which is better, that or

Cousell (Weeks in 2010)

McGehee

Braun

Fielder

Cameron

Hart

Hardy

Kendall

 

Halladay

Gallrdo

Bush

Suppan

Looper

 

Hoffman

??

Remember there is a big difference between prospects and guys with some experience where you know what you will get. You cant assume Cain, Gamel, Green, Lucroy/Salome, Escobar are not "outs," infact you should probably assume some of them will surely be busts. Our current lineup does have obvious problems, but we are still 2 games out. Adding Halladay to replace C. Mikegomery Burns easily makes up 2 games. You cant assume our future team is good enough to be in contention at the ASB, you just dont know.

[sheetswannabe]

How can you say Gamel will be a better defender? I am just wondering, Fielder looks pretty good at 1st, he just doesnt have range. But I dont know of any statistical evidence of any significance (only 3 games) of Gamel being better at 1B

[Paulus88]

I don't think it is an either or consistently good v. championship argument. In the last few years teams that have just barely made the playoffs have gotten hot and made it to the WS ('06 Cardinals, Rockies, '05 Astros). Being a consistent playoff team can have both long term and short term benefits.

[topper09er]

Out of those 3 teams only the Cardinals are consistent contenders, and they got to the WS using 15 IP with 1 ER from Jeff Suppan, not exactly something you can count on. The Rockies got so hot that they are huge outliers.

In 07 as late as September 15 the rockies were under .500, in 4th place and 6.5 games back. They then won 13 of 14 to only tie for a playoff spot. The Padres went 8-6 over their last 14 games which allowed COL to catch them.

 

Im not sure if we are in the same boat as the Astros, they are a team that was able to keep their expensive core (Bagwell, Biggio) for many years plus add other big contracts at the same time (Clemens, Berkmann). I dont think the Brewers can do that, we lost Sabathia, Sheets, we will lose Fielder and probably eventually Braun. And now we at our payroll limit and cannot afford to add anything extra unless we unload some salary first.

[TheCrew07]

I didn't list just one player as Lawrie is a Wild Card on the IF, we have plenty of OF depth, so there's multiple options in there at just about every position except for SS (and Prince and Brewer might someday figure in as well), I didn't even list guys like Schafer. Of course some of the prospects may struggle or fail, that's not the issue. The issue is that people keep insisting that the window closes when Fielder walks, which just isn't true. We have a ton of high talent pitching in the pipeline that will arrive right as Fielder walks, which is also something this current team does not posses much of. Just because you might want to win now, doesn't mean that it's not possible to have a better all around team 3 or 4 years from now. With much better pitching talent the team wouldn't have to score as many runs to win... I don't think it's a stretch at all to think that the team as a whole could be better in 2011 than it was in 2008. For some reason we tend to get hung up on Runs Scored, but Runs Prevented are just as valuable.

 

 

Gamel has much better range than Fielder today, has a better glove today, Gamel is taller, has a wider wingspan, and is more athletic, thus would be a better target at 1B. Gamel is plus defender at 3B minus his crappy throwing.. at 1B he wouldn't have to make throws. Fielder is an average defender at his best, I don't think it's very difficult to see how Gamel could be a better defender at 1B than Prince. Fielder is a much defender than he was last season, in that there's no doubt, but Gamel has the potential to be Teixeira good at 1B.

[brewers4eric]

The 2009 Brewers are still built for the three run homer. With my simplified perspective, we just haven't hit enough of them to make up for the lack of depth in our rotation. Braun and Fielder have been solid, but the rest of the lineup has been inconsistent or just bad. We need some three run jacks from Hart and Hardy to make up for what we lost when Weeks went down and Hall disappeared. This year, we don't have Russell Branyan at Nashville to call up and inject a hot streak into the team. We all got spoiled when Braun got called up and started knocking in runs immediately, I was hoping for more of the same when Gamel got the call.

The solution to our problems, past, present, and future, will always be our scouting department and minor league system. It gave us the pieces to pull off the Sabathia trade that put us in the playoffs last year. While I've been following the Brewers since 1978, we've been out of the race in May so many times that I don't know whether or not we should empty out the farm system in order to get the pieces that we need for the stretch run. This team currently has so many holes that my gut tells me that we just don't have enough to hedge the future.

At any rate, we are a long way from where we were when guys like Collier, Ginter, and Rushford were on the top of our lineup card and we were on our way to a 106 loss season. The franchise has come a long way in 7 years.

[Baldkin]

Just looking at Gamel, and seeing him be able to play 3rd at least passibly makes me realize he'll be a better defensive 1B than Prince. Although, Prince does look *much* better and quicker on his feet this year than last year.

 

You can't rely on great pitching performances from mediocre pitchers in the playoffs but they happen all the time.

 

Its building a team, within the payroll to be consistently able to contend and make the playoffs that's the goal. Trading away cheap good talent for expensive good talent will not help the team in the future.

[chadomac]

A lineup like the following would be as solid top to bottom as we've ever had.

 

Cain - CF (less BBs but higher BA than predecessor, OBP likely a wash, probably less HRs, defensively maybe a slight downgrade?

Weeks -2B (could be a huge upgrade over himself)

Gamel - 1B (slight down grade from Fielder offensively, much better defender)

Braun - LF (should keep getting better towards his peak)

Green - 3B (much better production than Hall, steady but unspectacular in the field)

Salome/Lucroy - C (huge offensive upgrade over Kendell, 20 HR potential in both players)

McGehee/Gindl/Dennis/Whomever - RF (maybe a slight upgrade over Hart, Gindl and Dennis both bat LH)

Escobar - SS (will hit for a better average, probably not as much power, walk less, but will steal bases and play better D)

Pitcher

 

I'm not really arguing against anything else you've said on this topic, TheCrew, but saying that this hypothetical lineup "would be as solid top to bottom as we've ever had" is absolutely ridiculous. We have no idea how most of those guys are going to perform in the major leagues, that is why they're just prospects. ESPECIALLY the guys that aren't even on the AAA team yet.

[monty57]

I think that with the prospects we have we're built to be a playoff-caliber team for years to come. Our biggest question mark is the rotation over the next 1-2 years. Next year, Yo, Suppan, Bush and Parra will all be back, with a mutual option on Looper. The following year, we lose Suppan and Bush, but it is feasible that someone decent will be up from the minors by then. If this year's rotation isn't good enough, they're not likely to be good enough next year either, making picking up another starter a top priority.

 

This leads us to the position we're currently in: The central has been weak this year, and therefore we've been able to stay in striking distance, even though we haven't played all that well. That said, do we think we're contenders, in which case we should look to add pieces, or do we think we probably won't be able to keep it up this season, in which case we should look to shore up our rotation for the next couple of seasons?

 

I don't think we'll be able to answer that question right now. I'd hate to give up some players that could be a big part of our future and not even make the playoffs, but I'd also hate to sell off and then see the NL Central won by an 86-win team. Personally, I think the next couple of weeks will be very telling. If we play poorly, we're likely to get far enough back that we'll sell. If we play well, we'll mortgage some of our future to add a piece or two. I guess a third option would be to use a mid-tier prospect to bring in someone like Doug Davis, although his price tag will go up if he keeps pitching well.

 

If we're buyers, Halladay would be wonderful, as he'd be here next year as well, but that also makes him really expensive in terms of prospects. As others have said, he's probably worth the price tag. If we're sellers, Hoffman, Cameron and Looper could all bring back a decent return from a contending team. Kendall and Counsell may even bring something back (although not too much) from the right team.

 

 

As far as the near future goes, I've touched on the rotation, which will look much the same next year as this year. I'd guess Hardy ($4.65MM this year in 2nd year of arby) and Hart ($3.25MM in 1st year of arby) are dangled in the offseason to try to bring in a decent young starter to replace Looper ($4.75MM), who isn't likely to be back. Cameron ($10MM), Kendall ($4.6MM), Hoffman ($6MM) and Counsell ($1MM) will be gone, freeing up a decent amount of salary. Kendall should be replaceable by putting a crash-test dummy behind the plate, but Cameron will be hard to replace, especially considering Cain lost time to injury this season. Fielder will likely be back, as we don't have anyone (with the possible exception of Gamel) to replace him. A hopefully-healthy Weeks will be back, giving a big boost to our offense. Escobar should man SS for a long time, and McGehee should at the very least be a good utility player for a number of years. For those yearning for a Hart trade, remember that trading him and losing Cameron (who probably won't sign a one-year deal to stay in Milwaukee) will likely mean an outfield of Braun and either Cain, Bourgeois or Gerut in CF and Katin or Gillespie in RF. Not really fear inspiring. If Hardy can be traded for a decent young pitcher, I'd guess we'll see Hart in RF for one more season.

 

In this scenario, we will shed $31MM (Hardy plus the FA losses) and have a team of: SP Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, person we get in Hardy trade; RP Coffey, Villy, DiFelice, Stetter, McClung, Riske(?) and others; 1B Fileder, 2B Weeks, SS Escobar, 3B Gamel, OF Braun, Cain/Gerut, Hart, C Salome/Lucroy and Rivera. Hall's bloated contract will stick around until we DFA him.

 

Yo will need to be locked up and we will of course add salary through pay raises, but we should have some money to fill some holes. That, in conjunction with hopefully picking up a decent pitcher in a Hardy trade (or for Cameron/Hoffman/Looper/Counsell/Kendall this season) should be enough to field a decent team next year. For the longer term, we have some good prospects, including good starting pitching prospects, in the minors. Plus, the recent trend of locking up young players to long deals should help the Brewers keep players such as Yo, Gamel, Escobar, Lawrie, etc., for 7-8 years instead of the normal six.

 

Honestly, it hurts to think of this stuff in the middle of the season, as these types of posts are usually reserved for December, but hopefully we'll win tonight and tomorrow against St. Louis, be tied for first again, and all will be well with the world. Of course, the thought of trading Hoffman and Cameron to a contender for a good young starting pitcher will still be compelling.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not really arguing against anything else you've said on this topic, TheCrew, but saying that this hypothetical lineup "would be as solid top to bottom as we've ever had" is absolutely ridiculous. We have no idea how most of those guys are going to perform in the major leagues, that is why they're just prospects. ESPECIALLY the guys that aren't even on the AAA team yet.

First off it was just an example of a possible lineup, I specifically asked not get hung up on the names or positions, that's all way too murky yet. Gamel may stick at 3rd, might end up in the OF, 1B... I have no idea. We enough have significant positional talent that profiles to be league average or above, that through sheer number of prospects I feel very good about the future. I fully understand not every prospect produces, but even if Gamel is only a 25 HR guy at his peak, the 20 HRs we'll pickup from the C position will approximately make up the difference between Fielder and his replacement player..

 

My comment about no holes top to bottom is only "ridiculous" if you believe prospects have no value, there is no hitter I brought up in that post that profiles like Kendell, not a single one. The guy I'm least comfortable projecting is Cain, but Colby compares to him to Randy Winn. If Cain ends up as Randy Winn I'm alright with that. The Brewers have done an excellent job of indentifying and developing MLB bats, we got the most we could of the first wave, if the second wave can manage to be slightly less productive we're in shape. Part of my opinion of the future is based on the organization's recent history of success developing those bats. Even a guy like Hall whom I personally never cared for (I was a Hardy guy) had his 2 years in the sun.

 

I'm banking on a positive track record and good results thus far in the minors. As far as Gamel goes Money's comments about him sold me. Those don't follow the minors won't truly understand how sparing he is in his praise of a player, so when he jumped all over Gamel being compared to Wade Boggs, but with significantly more power, I was sold. I might over value him, other's may under value him, time will tell, but I think he's a .900 OPS player once he settles in.

 

Furthermore AAA really has nothing to do with any prospect's readiness or value, that topic has been beat to death. AAA is a great place for hitters to learn how to hit pitchers that know how to pitch, but for the most part the pitchers in AA actually throw harder, a comparison of Chris Cody's career path to that of Yo is a good example of what I mean. AAA rosters are mostly full of depth for the MLB team, not developing prospects, you might want to reconsider your notion of prospect progression.

[topper09er]

I'm not really arguing against anything else you've said on this topic, TheCrew, but saying that this hypothetical lineup "would be as solid top to bottom as we've ever had" is absolutely ridiculous. We have no idea how most of those guys are going to perform in the major leagues, that is why they're just prospects. ESPECIALLY the guys that aren't even on the AAA team yet.

First off it was just an example of a possible lineup, I specifically asked not get hung up on the names or positions, that's all way too murky yet.

Im sorry, you cant list a bunch of players (independant of the batting order which no one is talking about by the way), say they make up the best team in franchise history including the Yount/Molitor and Braun/Fielder eras and then go back and say you still arent sure on the players and positions. How can you say a group of players will be better than Yount/Molitor/Cooper/Simmons/Thomas/Sutton/Vucovich/Fingers or Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Hart/Cameron/Sabathia/Sheets without even knowing exactly who this group of players is??

[Fatter than Joey]

Counsell ($1MM) will be gone

 

We keep saying this every year.

[TheCrew07]

Ahh I should have qualified that better, I didn't mean to compare 2011 to 1982.. I was comparing teams in the modern era. Again you're hung up on star power in the the lineup... last year's team still had Kendell and Hall, and a team that collectively slumped at the start of the stretch run.

 

We're positioned very well for the future position wise, Hardy and Fielder or not... Sabathia was just one player, and Bush was also very good in the second half. However our 2011 rotation has a chance to be as good as the Rays rotation was/is, we've never have this many legit arms in the system since I've been following it. The only problem is they are all bunched together in A and A+ (with the exception of Braddock). A rotation full of pitchers similar to Yo is a very good thing. The 2008 team was pretty top heavy, I think our teams down the road will have better balance and better pitching over all.

 

For example in no particular order other than Yo being proven so I put him by himself at the top, the rotation could end up...

Yo

Parra\Braddock

Rogers\Peralta\Scarpetta

Watten\Frederickson\Rivas\Bowman\Adams

Arnett\Odorizzi\Butler\Periard

 

Why wouldn't we be excited about the potential down the road? With a little luck we could even have some pitching surplus to move for a position of need if a position prospect really tanks it. Pitching is power.

 

Even if we only hit on 1 player from each group, we're in awesome shape as an organization,

[3Putt]

Are McGehee's knees going to allow him to have a major league career? He's one of my favorite Brewers but if he's already hobbling around the bases at age 26 I'm reluctant to pencil him into our long-term plan.

[FVBrewerFan]

A bit OT, but since Halladay has become part of this discussion I have a quick question. Is it realistic in MLB trades to extend his contract as part of the deal? I guess what can be called "sign and trade." I'm not real big on trading Gamel or other top prospects for 1 1/2 years of Halladay. BUT, could the Brewers rework his contract to a 4 year deal as part of the terms of the trade?

 

If they can get Halladay for 4 years, I would be willing to part with Gamel. But there would be a lot of other players that may get Toronto's attention. Some combination of Hardy, Hart, Suppan, Looper, anyone in the minors other than top pitchining prospects and Escobar. I would love to see that come together. Otherwise, plan B would be to wait for the off-season and shop for a FA or trade.

 

Finally, if the Brewers want to be sellers, they have a lot of players that would interest other teams. Hoffman, Suppan, McGehee, Cameron, Counsel, Kendall, anyone in the bullpen besides Stetter. Each one of those players could be a piece contenders are looking for, especially if injuries pop up at a certain position.

 

So in theory, they could further stock the farm system making it a wash if they trade a couple for a big time pitcher in the off-season.