Roy Halladay

[TooLiveBrew]

The Yankees and Sox have more pitchers than they can put on their teams right now. The chance either of them gets into a bidding war for Hallday is slim. The Yankees are in a holding pattern due to injury issues and the Sox hope to move at least one pitcher.

While I agree they likely won't be major players... given their excesses of P, an offer built around [buchholtz/Kennedy + MLB SP whose spot Halladay takes + __??__] is certainly plausible. Of course the "??" would have to be some legit players, but just a general thought.

 

I really think the Brewers are as legit a frontrunner as anyone for Halladay's services. Also, good point on Parra's value/neccessity next year & beyond, endaround

[TauPentaRei]

I am starting to get legitimately excited about this.

 

I think Mark A is frothing at the mouth and imploring Doug to get this done. Can't prove it, sorry. But I know that's how i-banker types operate. a little taste leaves you wanting more. the future is the future - worry about it later.

 

We can extend Roy too. 4 seasons of Roy-Yo 1-2 is going to get season ticket sales JACKED.

 

Anybody around Nashville or Huntsville to report back on suspicious gentleman flooding the stands with notebooks and big blue Js on their shirts?

[lcbj68c]

Apparently, according to recent lashing from Gord Ash, wouldn't be hard to spot them in Huntsville amongst the 660 average attendance per game.

[YoungGeezy]

I think I may be that only guy on here that really would not mind or actually be really excited if Braddock stays in the pen. The guy has incredible stuff andthe brewers could really use a F-Rod or a vintage Gagne after Trevor leaves. The guy could be an amazing closer. Don't get me wrong i'd be nice if he was in the rotation but if not no complaints from me. Also wow, you overrate your prospects a little to much. No way in hell Lucroy or Odorizzi make the top 50 and Braddock is a long shot

[brewdude15]

I don't think you want to do that. Cubs and Cardinals fans are quite obnoxious. You'd be begging to go back to the AL east http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I would have to say that BoSox and Yanks fans are equally obnoxious....

[Team Canada]

Nate, the big problem with your deal is that there's no stud prospect close to or in the major leagues. Sure those may be decent prospects, but it's weighted far to low in the system. Regardless of whether you think there is a chance of the big guns being dealt, the point is that's what it's going to take. It doesn't matter how you'd prefer to structure a deal, it's coming up with what Toronto is asking for, and what you have is not it.

[804Sox]

Nate,

 

Yes, just because a prospect is not top 50 or top 100 doesn't mean he's a bad prospect . . . it just means he's not among the best. A package to acquire Roy Halladay will, without question, include some of the games BEST prospects, not just good ones.

 

For reference of what an elite prospect looks like, here's BA's midseason top 25 (in order) followed by 25-50 (in alphabetical order)

 

1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves

2. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins

3. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees

4. Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers

5. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants

6. Buster Posey, c, Giants

7. Carlos Santana, c, Indians

8. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles

9. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles

10. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins

11. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves

12. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks

13. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers

14. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers

15. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds

16. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays

17. Dominic Brown, of, Phillies

18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays

19. Jason Castro, c, Astros

20. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays

21. Brett Wallace, 3b, Cardinals

22. Matt LaPorta, 1b/of, Indians

23. Michael Taylor, of, Phillies

24. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Phillies

25. Michael Saunders, of, Mariners

 

Tim Alderson, rhp, Giants

Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates

Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox

Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles

Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians

Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies

Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays

Aaron Hicks, of, Twins

Brad Holt, rhp, Mets

Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals

Austin Jackson, of, Yankees

Casey Kelly, rhp/ss, Red Sox

Jason Knapp, rhp, Phillies

Mat Latos, rhp, Padres

Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros

Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets

Matt Moore, lhp, Rays

Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals

Derek Norris, c, Nationals

Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers

Ben Revere, of, Twins

Esmil Rogers, rhp, Rockies

Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs

Nick Weglarz, of, Indians

 

By team (top 25 in parentheses):

5 - Rays (3)

4 - Phillies (3), Indians (2)

3 - Giants (2), Orioles (2), Rangers (2), Rockies

2 - Marlins (2), Braves (2), Yankees (1), Astros (1), Red Sox, Twins, Mets, Royals

1 - D-Backs (1), Brewers (1), Reds (1), Cardinals (1), Mariners (1), Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Nationals

0 - Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, A's, Dodgers

 

Not surprisingly, the Brewers do not have 8 or 9 of the top 50 prospects in baseball, nate, with only Escobar making the cut at #14 (I was honestly surprised Gamel didn't make the top 50, but I don't think they put as much work into this list as the offseason ones)

 

You are correct that I don't have the depth of knowledge that some here have of the Brewers farm system, but I definitely believe that I have a solid understanding of minor league baseball as a whole, such that I understand how prospects in one system relate to thise in another.

 

I'm not going to argue with all of your claims about where different players will end up, which 20 yro once highly-regarded infielders will suddenly learn to hit, or the fact that every moderately successful or highly drafted and projectable minor league pitcher will become a major leaguer. That's just a matter or projection and my opinion is no more valid than yours.

 

What I will do is examine your claim that "Periard, Ordorizzi, and Braddock are better than anything the Red Sox currently have in their system if you want to compare." This takes projection (in the sense that there is no benefit of hindsight) out of the equation and will allow us to focus on where they are as prospects right now. Of course this does include some element of projection, as that's all you can do with prospects.

 

Periard: 22 yro RH starter in A+ (reached AA in 2008) - has been about a 3.25 ERA pitcher outside of a poor debut in AA (small sample). He has only once in his career averaged more than 6 K/9 at a single level over the course of a season, that (6.07) coming in his 112 inning stint in A+ last year. The only other season where he averaged more than 5 K/9 ca,e in R ball in 2006. His control has been decent, averaging only about 2 BB/9

 

Better player in Red Sox system - Junichi Tazawa: just-turned 23 yro starter in AA - 2.8 ERA with 8 K/9 with decent control - pitched well against major-leaguers in spring training

Better player in Jays system - Tim Collins: 19 yro RH reliever in A+ - 1.5-2.5 ERA with about 13 K/9 over career

 

Odorizzi: 19 yro RH starter in Rookie League - 3.5-3.75 ERA with about 7 K/9 and decent control

 

Better Player in Sox system - Stolmy Pimentel: 19 yro RH starter in A (full season) - 3.0 ERA with 8+ K/9 two levels above Odorizzi

Better player in Jays system - this is hard, no comparable better players - of course guys like Arencibia, but I'll use Collins again

 

Braddock: 21 yro LH reliever in AA (recently promoted) - strikeout pitcher 10+ K/9 at every level - successful as starter until promoted to A+ in 2008 - has been more effective since converted to a reliever that year in A+ and has dominated A+ hitters in that role and is off to a great start in AA

 

Better player in Sox system (at least comparable due to starting) - Felix Doubront: 21 yro LH starter in AA - 3.5-3.75 ERA with about 9 K/9 over past 2 years

Not Better but comparable (in terms of results, Braddock's scouting reports sound better) player in Jays system - Daniel Farquhar: 21 yro RH reliever in AA - sub 2.5 ERA at every stop, but limite dinnings overall - 10+ K/9, but some control problems

 

and this is just with mid-top 10 prospects at best and doesn't include guys like Lars, casey Kelly, Reddick, Kalish, etc.

 

Edit: multiple installments . . .

[logan82]

I was honestly surprised Gamel didn't make the top 50, but I don't think they put as much work into this list as the offseason ones

 

Gamel is no longer eligible. He has to much time in the Majors. Link

[smetana34]

Got this from another site:

 

"I am a Phils fan. I think that should let everyone know that no matter what team J.P. may trade Doc to, Phils or not, you will not be happy. You have to keep in mind the current number of players on your 40 man roster. Any player acquired is gonna need to be on it. Any higher end prospect close to the bigs not on the 40 man will be plucked at the WM in the Rule 5. You are gonna want young guys that don't require to be on that list. "

 

Now, I have 0 knowledge of how the Rule 5 draft or 40 man roster works. I just read this and thought, "If this is truly the case, maybe we wouldnt have to give up as much as some would think." Just thought I'd toss this out there to see if it has any relevance or if anyone may have overlooked this claim.

[804Sox]

I was honestly surprised Gamel didn't make the top 50, but I don't think they put as much work into this list as the offseason ones

 

Gamel is no longer eligible. He has to much time in the Majors. Link

makes sense. my bad . . .

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers should get the Mariners involved as a 3rd team in the Halladay trade. The M's are a contender, and could use some offense. As much as Hart has disappointed us, he;s still light years better than the M's strating LF, Endy Chavez. The M's have some prospects that might interest Toronto, including a bunch of Canadians.

 

The M's could really Scutaro from the Jay's.

[igor67]

The players acquired only have to go on the 40-man roster of the Blue Jays if they are already on the 40-man. I don't really see that as too much of an issue. I would be surprised if more than 2 of the players the Jays get need a 40-man spot right away, and they are already freeing 1 spot with Roy leaving. I think it's safe to assume that JP is hoping whomever he acquires is going to be more worth a 40-man spot than some random depth/filler/ 4A type player. Guys in the lower minors generally haven't been around long enough to have to be on the 40-man.

[1e Corbeau]

804:

 

You're obviously very familiar with your team's system and I, for one, appreciate the chatter on some of these deals, especially ones that involve the Red Sox (see the JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz thread). Thanks for bringing good value with informative posts to the forum.

 

I think you're a but guilty of over-valuing the Sox prospects, just as Brewer fans are guilty of the same for their prospects. (Personally, that's part of being a fan, in my opinion). While informative, I think you're comparisons above are a bit of a self-interested sample selection.

 

For instance, Periard is a groundball pitcher who pitches to contact. To compare him to Tazawa, who by my read looks like a flyball strikeout pitcher, *and judge the comparison on K/9* isn't really painting an accurate picture. With Tazawa, his ability to miss bats as a not 23 year old first-year minor leaguer in AA (I'm assuming he played professionally in a different country) will be larger question going forward than Periard's ability to induce groundballs (when healthy, which he hadn't been late last season through his rehab start to 2009).

 

I don't have time to dig through more at the moment, but in passing Odorizzi is in R+, which is one level from Pimental in A ball.

 

And Braddock is in the pen to limit his innings. I haven't seen anything from anyone in the Brewers org or any other source to suggest that his pen role (or his piggy-backing, which is why you see non-GS games last year) is anything more than maintaining a strict control of his pitch counts after surgery. So, in my opinion, he hasn't lost any value by not being a SP prospect, since he still is one; if you want to argue the surgery (or surgeries) reduce the value, I can see that.

 

Point being, K/9 and ERA are great, but as in all things, highlighting a few stats misses out on differences in approaches, makeup, pitchability, stuff, and all that other good stuff. Of course, I think you likely would agree, since you seem to, again, have a really firm grasp on your team's prospects.

[TheCrew07]

804 I agree with Corbeau, your Brewer comps aren't very good comps at any stage. Just looking at baseball-reference doesn't give one the true picture of what's happening with a player's development or their stuff. I don't want to shred up your post but a good example of this is your spin on Braddock. He's been dealing with injuries and emotional issues, on the injury side the problems have lingered because he was misdiagnosed numerous time sby the training staff, and it appears he's doing very well with the emotional issues. No one knows for sure if this switch to RP is permanent or just a "get him through the season healthy thing" like they are doing with Rogers. Many of us hope he gets his 100 IP this season and is allowed to start again next season, the organization has been intentionally ambiguous about his status only saying that he's a relief pitcher for now. Personally, with Jeffress continual struggles on and off the field, I hope they covert him back to the rotation for next season. The thing is his relief appearances are actually on a schedule so he's getting in more IP per week than Rogers is as a starter.

 

Odorizzi had a rough 1st outing but has been solid since, and he's actually in R+ not R. Peraird's results have never matched his stuff but there's still hope.

 

I agree that the initial statement you were responding to was off the mark, and it's obvious you put significant time into the BoSox system, but I'm personally hesitant to make comp claims between players in systems, because it's rare that players match will match up that well. They were certainly closer than one of our own here posting that Dillard was a comp for Feliz... We have no player of Buchholz's talent or level of accomplishment in our system at this time, but that's only because he's in AAA and our best Pitchers are in AA through A+ right now. Overall I like our pitching depth better, I just wish we had any as advanced as Clay.

[804Sox]

Corbeau and TheCrew:

 

I think we're mostly on the same page. I thought it was kind of ridiculous that nate suggested that Braddock, Odorizzi, and Periard are better than anything the Red Sox have in there minor league system. What I was attempting to prove with my limited exercise (though it took far more time than I intended) was that those types of players exist in every good system (the Sox and Brewers systems are both very good), and are rarely even in the top half.

 

I never really intended to put down the Brewers prospects (I've mentioned before that I really like Braddock and Odorizzi in particular, among others), but I've become a bit frustrated by the sentiment among some here (as well as among a lot of Red Sox fans) that the 20 yro kid with good stuff and good results in the low minors has even a 50/50 chance of being a successful major leaguer and that this type of player is unique to his/her favorite team's minor league system. I really just wanted to show that other good teams have prospects of comparable quality (and thus, perhaps comparable odds for major league success) in the minors, even if their style and stuff are not exactly comparable. Admittedly ERA, K/9, and BB/9 are a very rudimentary way of evaluating prospects, but I was going for a pretty quick analysis and this are the most readily available predictive stats.

 

Also, I appreciate the welcome that you and others have shown me. I'm honestly not trying to pick fights or be a contrarian, i just think it's fun to have these types of discussions with people with different perspectives.

[lcbj68c]

I tend to agree with 804sox. EVERY team has guys like Braddock, Odorizzi, and Periard at the low levels. That's why it's so hard to bank on them. Until they get to AAA and do it consistently over nearly a full season there, it's tough to get excited about them being the "centerpiece" of a trade. Even getting 5 of these type guys wouldn't compare to getting 1 Escobar/Gamel/Lawrie, in my opinion.

[UeckerAddict]

I don't think you want to do that. Cubs and Cardinals fans are quite obnoxious. You'd be begging to go back to the AL east http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I would have to say that BoSox and Yanks fans are equally obnoxious....

I respectfully disagree. I admit that my opinion is based only on my personal experience, but I attended a game at Yankee Stadium in a Royals jersey (their opponent that day) and had one of the greatest times ever. They gave me the business in clever and respectful ways. They never yelled "(Fill in someone's name), you suck!" And every conversation going on around me was about...get this....baseball! I've actually never had problems with Cardinals fans. I have never been to Fenway, so I can't comment on them. Cubs fans lie in direct opposition to my experiences with Yankee and Cardinal fans. I know of no group of fans that can combine lack of baseball knowledge with diarrhea of the mouth so passionately. I hate the Yankees, but when I must tip my cap- I do.

[lcbj68c]

I agree. Same goes for Mets fans in relation to New York. I have no problem with fans from the NE at all.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/15734/20090711/jays_want_too_much_for_halladay/

 

If this is true, we have no chance at Halladay. The Jays apparently want either Billingsley or Kershaw in a package from LA, which is ridiculous. We don't have anything close to that to give up.

[wibadgers23]

Yeah, if they don't get absolutely blown away with an offer they'll just wait until next year to trade him.

[lcbj68c]

To be fair, maybe that's just how the Blue Jays view the Dodgers situation, not neccessairly just "what they are looking for". "What they are looking for can change from team to team based upon the depths of those particular systems and what the Jays like on the different farm systems of that particular team. (Ie...nobody they want in the Dodgers farm system, but they like Kershaw or Billingsley, so they'll start there). Where perhaps with another team, they like a star prospect at CF or SS.

[paulmolitor4]

http://baseball.realgm.co...t_too_much_for_halladay/

 

If this is true, we have no chance at Halladay. The Jays apparently want either Billingsley or Kershaw in a package from LA, which is ridiculous. We don't have anything close to that to give up.

The Dodgers would be fools to part with Billingsley or Kershaw to get Halladay... enough said.

[dadofandrew]

Someone in SL told the media TOR was asking for their top 4-5 prospects. Those lists of A ballers (other than Lawrie) is just wishful thinking. Unless they want Hardy, or would agree to take less if someone takes Rios or Wells, he's only going for a monster package.

[TheCrew07]

That was refuted by their beat writer immediately following the original twitter or whatever it was.

[DannoMac21]

7. Carlos Santana, c, Indians

 

Still going strong.