Roy Halladay

[lcbj68c]

A free agent could take over at SS. But to answer your question, I too would rather keep Escobar. He's more of what this team needs in that he provides speed and avg at the top of the order. We have a bunch of sluggers already.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think we have high hopes for the SS we just drafted with the last name of Prince. The guy looks like a steal and might be ready by 2012 if he meets or surpasses expecations from now until then.

[trwi7]

I would probably trade Escobar before Gamel.

[pogokat]

I'd trade escobar before Gaeml---Gamel's already a decent MLB contributor and i think he's going to be a high OBp with decent power---I think Alcides is a great glove with a .750 OPS...i thik our lineup needs Gamel more...so, I'd trade escobar---actually, i said at the beginning of the season i thought they'd trade him for Halladay so, well, i still do..

 

Escobar+Braddock+Salome=Halladay

[Invader3K]

I agree I'd rather part with Escobar. Hardy will turn things around sooner than later and hopefully by the end of '10, we'll have someone else ready in the minors to step in at shortstop. Or a trade or FA signing can be made.

[804Sox]

OK 804Sox, you know your team, what would fit better? We know Epstien likes Hart, and has continuously searched for a righty swinging OF. Scaturo is better than Nick Green. If Bowden is too much, who could the Sox part with that Toronto would value? Escobar, Lawrie, Green, Periard is the start of a great offer to Toronto already, Bowden likely isn't even nessecary as the 5th player. Hart and Scaturo for Bard and Navarro? The problem is so many of the Sox prospects are below AA, except for a bunch of quality OFs, and Toronto doesn't need those.

I agree with your assessment of the Red Sox minor league system. There's a couple guys near the top in Lars, Bowden, Kelly, Reddick, and Kalish who would all probably be too much to give up for Hart, and after that the next 10-15 prospects are mostly high-cieling guys in the low minors - essentially lottery tickets.

 

As far as fair value for Hart, I would probably say someone like Felix Doubront: 21 yro AA lefty with a 3.71 ERA and 8.86 K/9. Quick Scouting Report: Throws 87-91 with a good changeup (79-80 mph, pretty good separation) and a developing curve. He's helped by a deceptive delivery, but still struggles some against LH batters and gets hurt when he leaves the fastball up. He's been young for each level and has pitched pretty well except for an injury filled 2007 season (hernia operation, among other things).

 

I personally wouldn't trade Doubront for Hart (my wariness of Hart is pretty well documented) but it seems like pretty fair value as far as Sox players in the upper minors.

 

I agree Scutaro (note spelling) is better than Nick Green, but don't think that's the type of upgrade you trade away talent to make, particularly with Lowrie returning soon. I also think that Theo's interest in Hart was probably mostly before Ortiz started to rebound, and even then might have only been to get a price check. Drew plays really good D in Right and is an OBP machine, so Hart would be no more than a backup.

[dadofandrew]

Escobar will be a star, while Gamel projects as above average. Alcides was a top prospect before he started hitting, that should tell you how good his D is.

[Never Outhustled]

Escobar will be a star, while Gamel projects as above average. Alcides was a top prospect before he started hitting, that should tell you how good his D is.

There is no indication of stardom. He won't be an 800 OPS guy for years, if ever. Defense just doesn't carry as much value as hitting does. Gamel has hit as well as Braun at every level at the same age, and has terrific batspeed and approach. He could be a star. He's an asset right now.

 

I agree with the majority, I'd deal Escobar before Gamel. If we don't develop another SS by 2011, find a stopgap. Our lineup will be awesome with Weeks, Braun, Fielder, and Gamel in it, we won't need offense from the SS to be a top run scoring team.

[chansen]

If we were to trade for Halladay, I would much rather include Gamel over Escobar.

 

I know Bill Hall is terrible, but we do have a few solid 3B that will be ok.

 

McGahee is cheap

Heether is putting up a .435 OBP in Nashville thru 56 games. OPS of .992 this season compared to .829 last season.

Green .384 OBP in AA. Left handed with some pop. .382 OBP last year in A ball.

 

Here is my proposal:

 

3B Mat Gamel

C Angel Salome

RF Caleb Gindl

P Trey Watten

[Never Outhustled]

Here is my proposal:

 

3B Mat Gamel

C Angel Salome

RF Caleb Gindl

P Trey Watten

Toronto has Rolen signed through next year, so Gamel doesn't make an immediate impact for them They have a better catching prospect than Solome in AAA in JP Arencibia. There RF, Alex Rios, is signed through 2015. They have no SS. Escobar would have to be the center point of the deal. Green makes good sense for them too.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Jays are in complete rebuild mode if someone like Brewer would be interesting for them. He wouldn't be the main player in the deal but he would be an interesting piece to put in there. Brewer definitely has the talent and has probably more pop in his bat than Escobar does though.

 

I was thinking of this trade:

 

SS Brent Brewer

3B Taylor Green

P Josh Butler, and Tim Dillard

2B Cutter Dykstra

 

Not a real over powering offer but one with a lot of potential and a pitcher who could start right now for the Jays. Dillard is only in there because he can come in and start right now for the Jays think of Dillard as Zack Jackson last year for the Indians. This probably is not enough to get Halladay and I believe this trade starts with Escobar and if it does I believe all talks will be off. I don't see Melvin trading away Escobar unless somehow the Brewers are able to sign Hardy long term.

[dadofandrew]

5 guys, only one of which profiles as a starter? For Halladay?

[nate82]

5 guys, only one of which profiles as a starter? For Halladay?

Only one profiles as a starter? Four out of the five profile as a starter. Brewer is a work in progress but if the Jays are shedding money they can wait on him. Green would be their starting 3B once Rolen is done and Dykstra could play CF or 2B for them. Butler would be in their rotation by the end of this year or the start of next year while Dillard would be in their rotation as soon as he was traded to them. He would also be a good bullpen guy or a cheap #5 starter for them. Having Dillard being your #5 at a cheap price is better than signing a Looper or Suppan to be your #5 starter.

 

There is a lot of value in the players I suggested but I don't think it would get done though. There is something missing in my trade I just can't find what I am missing it is either another starter or another bat and I'm not sure on that. I'm just leaving Escobar out of every trade thought because I know Escobar is off the table and won't be traded unless Hardy is signed long term and I doubt that is going to happen.

[tigerbrew]

Read that the Jays are shopping Alex Rios too. Think I wouldn't mind taking on Rios's terrible contract in a deal with Halladay provided we can do a deal like this:

 

Hardy, Suppan, Hart, Swindle (he's Canadian) and a choice of either Dillard, Heether or Katin, for Halladay and Rios.

[804Sox]

There is something missing in my trade I just can't find what I am missing it is either another starter or another bat and I'm not sure on that.

I know what you're missing! A legitimate stud prospect. Any proposals not including Lawrie, Gamel, or Escobar should not be voiced, and honestly it will probably take at least 2 of those 3 plus several other high-ceiling prospects

[nate82]

I know what you're missing! A legitimate stud prospect. Any proposals not including Lawrie, Gamel, or Escobar should not be voiced, and honestly it will probably take at least 2 of those 3 plus several other high-ceiling prospects

Define a legitimate stud prospect. I don't see Lawrie or Escobar being traded at all. Dykstra is a legitimate prospect not a stud but a legitimate prospect. Brewer is a toolsy prospect and Butler could be a #2 or #3 type pitcher. There is value in number of prospects over one or two stud prospects. Escobar won't be traded Melvin won't trade him so I just forget about Escobar because it is not going to happen so there is no need to even think about Escobar or Lawrie. Gamel just doesn't fit with the Blue Jays especially with Rolen there. Green makes more sense since it will be about 2 or 3 years before he would be up. Brewer would be up in about 2 or 3 years also 4 years at the most. Brewer projects to be a better hitter than Escobar at least to me he does power wise.

 

Dykstra could be a stud. I would expect Periard or Odorizzi would need to be added in that deal. With those two possible the Jays would be getting a toolsy player in Brewer, legitimate prospect in Dykstra, a #2 or #3 type pitcher in Butler, their future 3B in Green, and a #1 or #2 in Periard or Ordorizzi. The Jays would also get Dillard who would be a serviceable and cheap #5 starter. At worst Dillard would be a good bullpen guy.

 

I could also see the Brewers taking on Wells IF the Jays would take on Suppan for the next two years. The Brewers would still be losing financially with Wells and the talent in return would be a little less than what the Jays would be expecting for Halladay alone. I don't see the Brewers taking on all that salary though unless there would be a three team deal that sent Wells to the Yankees, Mets, or ???.

 

I wonder if a trade like this would be possible:

 

Brewers trade:

Green, Braddock/Periard/Ordorizzi, Dykstra, Lucroy, and Butler

Receive: Halladay and Swisher

 

Blue Jays trade:

Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells

Receive: Green, Braddock/Periard/Ordorizzi, Dykstra, Butler, and Kennedy

 

Yankees trade:

Nick Swisher and Ian Kennedy

Receive: Wells and Lucroy

 

Salary relief for the Jays and a lot of prospects, Yankees get a center fielder finally and their future catcher, and the Brewers receive Hallady and a replacement for Hart and a replacement for Cameron next year. I'm not sure the Yankees would do this though but they are the only team that would be able to take on Wells salary other than the Red Sox and the Mets. The Mets may need Wells more than the Yankees do though but that is a really expensive proposal for the Mets though with Beltran already in CF but I'm not sure Beltran will be back anytime soon this year.

[Oldcity]

I have to agree with those saying most people aren't offering enough. I don't see Toronto giving up Halladay for any deal that doesn't include two of Gamel, Escobar and Lawrie, plus others. We're talking about a year and a half of the best pitcher in baseball. If the Brewers acquired him, they'd instantly be favorites to win the division.

 

The Brewers keep Halladay for a year and a half, have to great chances to make a playoff run, and then either re-sign Halladay (probably a long shot) or get a couple picks for him when he walks. The more I think about it, the more I'd like to see the Brewers do it. I think they could manage without giving up both Gamel and Escobar--it could be one of them along with Lawrie as the two main pieces.

 

I'm not sure if this has been posted in this thread, but fangraphs has a good article on Halladay's value. It implies that a deal like this would be worth it for the Brewers.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roy-halladays-trade-value/

[endaround]

So the Yankees give up one good cheap player and a decent pitching prospect for Well's insane contract? They aren't fools.

[JohnBriggs12]

Parra, Escobar, and Lawrie is a deal that Toronto would strongly consider. They already have a need at SS. Parra gives them an immediate replacement in their rotation especially if they scouted his outing yesterday and Lawrie could be the toast of Canada with tremendous local appeal.

 

I'd prefer the deal to include Rios, by changing the offer to Hardy, Hart, Gamel, Parra and Lawrie for Halladay and Rios. Hardy and Hart would offset some salary and would allow the Brewers to include Gamel instead of Escobar who of the two Brewer prospects is in my book the superior.

 

Gamel should appeal to the Jays as well as successor either for Rolen or Overbay.

[And That]

The remainder of Alex Rios' contract could spell boondoggle for the Brewers unless they're sure he'll snap out of his two season long slide. If we offered Hardy, Lawrie, Taylor Green, Scarpetta and Brewer for Halladay and they countered with "oh, and here's Alex Rios too" I'd tell them "oh, here's Bill Hall too and there goes Taylor Green."

 

The Brewers have the ammo to get Halladay, but do they want to partially eviscerate their farm system to get a guy whose arm might fall off 2 starts into his Brewers career? I dunno. Maybe.

[bobloblaw]

Are the Blue Jays asking too much for Halladay? I was looking at what the Twins got for Johan Santana for just 1/2 less of a season and Escobar, Lawrie and a couple other prospects seems like a haul compared to Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra. Is the big difference the fact that Johan was going to have to sign a big contract with the team that got him?

 

The comparison from Johan to Halladay makes sense in that they both are elite pitchers but I must be missing something as to why the Twins received only one top notch prospect and two decent (but not that great) pitching prospects for the best pitcher in the game.

The difference with that deal was Santana was gonna leave anyway. He also was not gonna be traded without an extension and he narrowed his list to 3 teams. Minnesota did not have much leverage in that trade at all. Halladay is not in the same situation, he said he prefers to stay in Toronto. The prospects Minnesota received were supposed to much better than they turned out, which just shows there is always a bit of risk with any prospect. Also with Roy there is the opportunity for 2 world series runs as opposed to one.

[bobloblaw]

Parra, Escobar, and Lawrie is a deal that Toronto would strongly consider. They already have a need at SS. Parra gives them an immediate replacement in their rotation especially if they scouted his outing yesterday and Lawrie could be the toast of Canada with tremendous local appeal.

 

I'd prefer the deal to include Rios, by changing the offer to Hardy, Hart, Gamel, Parra and Lawrie for Halladay and Rios. Hardy and Hart would offset some salary and would allow the Brewers to include Gamel instead of Escobar who of the two Brewer prospects is in my book the superior.

 

Gamel should appeal to the Jays as well as successor either for Rolen or Overbay.

I think Escobar and Lawrie are the two that the Jays are wanting to center a trade around. I find it hard to believe they have interest in Parra, only for the fact they have a very similar pitcher in David Purcey who they have sent to AAA this year because of control issues. They are not looking for pitchers with BB issues. I don't have a link but on the local radio J.P said he is not interested in packaging Halladay to trade him (unless it was with wells). Also due to all our power coming from the left side in Lind and Snider, then Escobar will be more valuble to us then Gamel. In my opinion, J.P is probably telling your GM no trade will happen without Escobar.

[YoungGeezy]

See this is the way I see this whole thing:

 

1. Bluejays have said they want this to be a package deal including Vernon Wells, so any team who will entertain the idea of take Wells 107 million off their hands is clearly going to be the winning in the Halladay sweepstakes. The Brewers in no way shape or form should even consider that for a second. The Bluejays are also trying to trade Rollins and Rios who both have pretty big contracts which has already been talked about. So maybe if we could pull off a package deal for Rios that would save us Escobar and give them Hardy I'd be all for that. But if the Jays really do want a package deal, I would hope that the Crew wouldn't take Rollins or Wells. We have better places for that money (Fielder and Yo)

 

2. This is a full out bidding war so there is no getting away save and not giving up that much. It will end up costing us Escobar, Gamel, Lawrie, and maybe even Braddock because they also want a Pitcher and he is our closet, most talented one. If we are not will to give them it, well the Angels, Rex Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets all may be willing to give up that much. He has been one of the most dominate pitchers over the last 7-8 years it is going to take a lot. If I was GM of the Bluejays I'd be doing the same thing and tell a team this is what I want and if you can't give it to me I can get it somewhere else. It's not like the Jays need to trade him, they can keep him and still get a lot for him next year around the trade deadline. They hold all the cards and it is going to take a lot. An Escobar, Lawrie, Parra trade won't cut it.

 

3. I really think people bank on the C.C. factor from last season. C.C. stock was cheaper to begin with than Halladay because 1) He was in his final year and his team was not a contender. 2) he was not having the best season. It wasn't bad but he had the aweful April and took awhile for him to heat up so is stock/value wasn't as high as Halladay's is right now. Next we got lucky. That's is an understantment even because how often is a team going to make a deadline blockbuster trade and have that pitcher throw one of the best halfs of a season in baseball history? Not usually, they may pitch good and help out but not all are going to put the whole team and state of Wisconsin and carry them on his back. C.C. spoiled us and I think that everyone now thinks that every great pitcher we bring in is going to do the same thing. I'm not in anyway claiming Roy wouldn't help make a playoff push or pitch amazing for us but you never know how it will turn out. We will get him for a whole extra season and that be awesome but we are going to play a huge price tag for it.

 

4. I kind of hope we just stay pat or maybe get a pitcher like Vasquez or Davis that won't cost to much to rent. I think we try to make it with what we have and if we can't well this off-season DM can go and make some stuff happen to get us where we need to be.

[endaround]

If the Brewers get Halladay they can't trade Parra. They won't have the money next year to fill in the spot in the rotation after they let Looper go. Escobar would definitely be included and hopefully one of Salome or LuCroy instead of Lawrie. I think unlike Gamel or Escobar, Lawrie will be special while Gamel and Escobar will be solid but not amazing.

[igor67]

I wouldn't mind seeing if one could do a creative package for Wells and Halladay except that the defensive stats suggest he is well below average as a CFer. An averagish or slightly above bat and below average defense screams albatross even more so than the money. I suspect that in the end despite a fair amount of speculation I think the package JP actually gets has only 1 premium prospect and then a number of second tier guys. We have a lot of depth on the second tier of guys that can be dealt without "gutting" the system, so I think we can be competitive. Based on last year if we are going to land him I suspect we'll know by the end of the All-star break. Doug will put forth his best offer to get that boost coming out of the break and if that's not good enough he'll switch gears.