Roy Halladay

[bobloblaw]

@bobloblaw:

 

As a Jays fan, do you think they'd be intrigued by anyone on our 25-man not named Braun, Fielder or Gallardo? If they deal Halliday, is it rebuliding for sure?

 

Baiscally, I'm curious if Ricciardi would be interested in Hardy - either as a 1.5 year solution at SS or who, like Halliday, could be flipped at the deadline next year or in the offseason or who would (likely) garner Type A comp picks - Hart (2.5 years of control), or Parra (4.5 more years of control)?

 

I'm of the school that would rather hold Gamel and Escobar (especially the latter). I realize that may be wishful thinking. I would be open to include anyone else, though Braddock and Peralta would hurt. Perhaps a Lawrie, Green, who could be a 3B solution for the Jays in 2011, and Periard Canadian package (we could toss in Chris Dennis, too!) + Hardy.

 

Would Ricciardi want to package Rios to ditch some salary? Or does he seem likely to look for greatest value on Halliday alone?

 

Thanks for stopping by BF.net.

From what I gather J.P is interested in dealing Halladay alone, he doesn't want to drag down the value (although Rolen would probably be thought of as an assett). Our best chance of winning this year and next would be with Halladay because J.P views him as the best pitcher in baseball. So if Halladay is traded it would definitely be rebuilding, because our ownership is kind of up in the air right now plus the Yankees, Sox and Rays looking strong the next few years we are leaning towards a rebuild. I know they have had interest in Hardy in the past, however he is gonna hit free agency in a few years and thus will not help the Jays win in the next year or so, plus we are looking to scale back payroll. We are not looking to dump Rios and no one would take on Wells, so with Snider coming up our outfield is set. We have plenty of middle of the rotation types like Parra, while he might be a nice add on, that is not what we are looking for. I know we have serious interest in Lawrie, we would have taken him in the draft if you guys didn't. But he would have to be added with either Gamel or Escobar, most likely Escobar as we have two left handed power hitters already in Lind and Snider. We are not looking for depth, we are looking for potential top line talent.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess that for Halladay, I wouldn't want the Brewers to offer much more than something like [Hardy + Parra + Salome/Lawrie + prospect(s)].

 

I really think that trading either Gamel or Escobar right now would be a huge mistake.

[Pudster13]

Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar

 

Both these players are being vastedly overrated by Brewer fans, IMO. I wish it was the case, but the reality is, neither of these guys have Ryan Braun/Jose Reyes type talent.

 

I feel they will both be solid, but more league average type major leaguers.

 

Two better player comps for these two: Hank Blalock and Orlando Cabrera

 

Brewer fans do realize that if Gamel can't hack it at 3B, he becomes a very average hitting corner OF?

 

 

Not willing to give up either of these two guys for 1 and a half years+ of Roy Halladay may be quite foolish.

 

I'll actually go on record right now, saying that I think Brett Lawrie will turn out to be a better major leaguer than Gamel or Escobar.

[Hate those Rodents]

Despite his struggles at this level given inconsistent playing time, Gamel looks a little bit like Braun minus 7-9 homers. But an over .300 hitter that mashes doubles and still has power to hit 25-30 balls out each year. That would look fine as a corner OF'er, but I think he CAN stick at third also.

 

Escobar is so young that you can't project him yet. He has hit over .300 at a very young age at the best minor league levels and is a big time base stealing threat with an incredible glove. Again, I don't think you can project him to this point unless you project his much higher potential (which would put him well ahead of Cabrera).

 

I would maybe deal one in a Halladay trade but not both. In truth, I'd get a lesser pitcher at the deadline to keep these guys and re-evaluate in the off-season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Neither Gamel nor Escobar is overrated by Brewers fans. They are two very legit prospects.

[logan82]

Pudster13 wrote:

I'll actually go on record right now, saying that I think Brett Lawrie will turn out to be a better major leaguer than Gamel or Escobar.

That isn't much of a stretch. That also doesn't make the other 2 bad. I think at worst, Gamel and Escobar will be average MLB players. We need those caliber of players to fill out a MLB roster.

[endaround]

Yes they are legit prospects but they are not likely to be perennial All Star type talent. As for Toronto if the Brewers take on more salary a Rios/Hart swap could be part of it.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It sounds like the Jays want a SS prospect and would probably want Lawrie. If you are the Brewers do you deal Escobar, Lawrie and 2 lesser prospects for Halladay? I'm not sure I would do that, but that may be the price. It would make them quite strong for 09 & 10, but things would start to unravel after that. No Hardy in '11, no Prince in '12 and no viable replacements other than Gamel who could be in any number of spots by then...3B, 1B, RF.

 

Does that sound like the market price?

[lcbj68c]

No Hardy in '11, no Prince in '12 and no viable replacements other than Gamel who could be in any number of spots by then...3B, 1B, RF.

 

I think that is an unfair assumption. It may very well be correct, by really unable to project that at this point. Maybe Hardy would have already signed a long term deal with they weren't asking him to move to 3b, who knows. With Escobar gone, maybe he feels secure and inks a multi-year deal? Fielder being gone isn't a forgone conclusion either. Some big salaries will be off the books by then and perhaps they make him the highest paid player on the team. There is also 3 off-season worth of free agency to worry about the future of 1b/ss by then.

[jjfanec]

Are the Blue Jays asking too much for Halladay? I was looking at what the Twins got for Johan Santana for just 1/2 less of a season and Escobar, Lawrie and a couple other prospects seems like a haul compared to Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra. Is the big difference the fact that Johan was going to have to sign a big contract with the team that got him?

 

The comparison from Johan to Halladay makes sense in that they both are elite pitchers but I must be missing something as to why the Twins received only one top notch prospect and two decent (but not that great) pitching prospects for the best pitcher in the game.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think you're right about the contract situation for Santana.

[804Sox]

Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar

 

Both these players are being vastedly overrated by Brewer fans, IMO. I wish it was the case, but the reality is, neither of these guys have Ryan Braun/Jose Reyes type talent.

 

I feel they will both be solid, but more league average type major leaguers.

 

Two better player comps for these two: Hank Blalock and Orlando Cabrera

 

Brewer fans do realize that if Gamel can't hack it at 3B, he becomes a very average hitting corner OF?

 

 

Not willing to give up either of these two guys for 1 and a half years+ of Roy Halladay may be quite foolish.

 

I'll actually go on record right now, saying that I think Brett Lawrie will turn out to be a better major leaguer than Gamel or Escobar.

I agree with this. I've seen posts suggesting that Halladay could be acquired without giving up ANY of Lawrie, Gamel or Escobar, and that it would hurt, beyond that, to give up prospects like Wily Peralta and Dillon or even the perenially underachieving Parra. For ROY HALLADAY! If some of the poster here aren't overvaluing the brewers prospects, then they are certainly undervaluing Halladay, a generational pitching talent whose style suggests he will continue to be effective into the future.

 

Just for reference, Red Sox fans are talking about packages of Bowden, Lars, Reddick, and Masterson; Buchholz, Reddick, Tazawa, Bard; etc. I think that the Jays will, justifiably, be looking at a package of 4 top-100 prospects/young major leaguers, with at least one top-25 level talent, and probably 2 more of thise inside the top 75 or 50. That means at least 2 of Gamel, Lawrie, and Escobar, plus 2 more from a group of players like Salome, Parra, Peralta, etc.

 

I definitely recommend this thread from Soxprospects.com to all interested in the Halladay trade. covers a lot more than just the Sox side of the deal, and, in my opinion, has more comprehensive coverage of the news stories surrounding this rather than just poster proposals and opinions (a lot of that too). An interesting an informative read that will give you guys a valuable and different perspective, as this forum does for me:

 

http://forum-soxprospects.com?topic=4713

[TheCrew07]

I guess that depends how close a fan believes his/her team is to the playoffs. Again to give up what Atlanta did for Teixeira, to miss the postseason, only to flip the player the following season for much less would be absolutely crippling to the Brewer franchise. In Boston or even Atlanta, you can go out and win a bidding war for a frontline talent in free agency to fill a hole. That's simply not the case if you're the Brewers, who are we going to outbid for any player of significance? Atlanta gave up 3 of the top prospects in all of baseball, plus a young latin kid whom no one had heard of in Feliz, and Feliz will be a dominant big league pitcher... Altanta got essentially nothing for all the talent they gave away.

 

 

 

If the Brewers make a trade of that magnitude the end goal has to be the World Series, not just getting to the post season. I'm on the fence if Halladay would get the Brewers over the hump to get into the post season, let alone the WS. Yo and Parra are just too unknown at this time, I'd feel much better about things if Yo had pitched at all last season, but he didn't, and he's struggling to get through 6 IP in under 100 pitches... I honestly have no idea how long he'll remain as effective as he's been. He could very well last all season, but he may not, and I'm dead in the middle right now, no strong feeling either way. I am concerned about his pitch counts given his history, but that's a different thread entirely. If we acquire Halladay and Yo runs out of gas then we are done, it's that simple... there's a rather large risk factor that should be considered here, which seems to be getting overlooked by many. That one stupid play at Wrigley continues to hurt over a year a later.

[Never Outhustled]

I think we can make a very good offer without mortgaging our future if we get a little more creative. I understand the concern of many that trading Escobar leaves us without a SS in 2011. What if we get a SS prospect back in the deal? It makes sense to hang onto Hardy if we get Halladay, as he gives us the most Win Values this year and next year. Heres my proposal:

 

Milwaukee trades:

Cory Hart to Boston

Alcides Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Taylor Green and Alex Periard to Toronto

 

Milwaukee gets:

Roy Halladay, SS Yamaica Navarro

 

Boston trades:

Michael Bowden to Toronto

Yamaica Navarro to Milwaukee

 

Boston gets:

Cory Hart, Marcos Scaturo

 

Toronto trades:

Roy Halladay to Milwaukee

Marcos Scaturo to Boston

 

Toronto gets:

Alcides Escobar, Michael Bowden, Brett Lawrie, Taylor Green, and Alex Periard

 

As bobloblaw mentioned, Toronto loves Lawrie, and wanted to draft him at #17, but we picked 16. Getting Canadians Lawrie, Green, and Periard help ease the PR nightmare trading Halladay will be. The underated Green gives them a future replacement for Rolen. Escobar is the MLB ready SS they're searching for. Toronto wanted a package similar to the Texeiria haul. Those prospects entered the season ranked by BA as there teams #1, 2, 3, 14, and 18th prospects. This package entered this season ranked #1, 2, 3, 8, and 13th.

 

Boston had interest in Hart this year, and they've offered Bowden in numerous deals, including straightup for pedestrian catcher Miguel Montero. Boston has awesome SS depth in the minors, with 4 SS ranked in their top 25, and not a big need for any of them with Lowrie at SS when healthy. Scaturo bridges the gap for them until then. Scaturo is no longer needed in Toronto with Escobar there.

 

Milwaukee get Halladay, which is an almost unbelievable improvement over what the 5th starters nagative impact we've gotten this year. Navarro is ready for AA right now, he's just not there because of Boston SS logjam. He's their 10th rated prospect, and a perfect replacement for Hardy in 2011.

 

The Brewers lineups can now be fully projected through to 2011 with considerable talent on offense, and well within budget. We would be a World Series favorite in 2009 and 2010, and a contender in 2011 if we develop pitching.

[Weirdos19]

How about Hart, Escobar, Parra, and Scarpetta for Halladay and Rolen?

 

It sounds like it's overpaying, but we'll have to give up more than we did last year. We are getting Roy for a year and a half. If we got CC for that long, we'd still be laughing about the deal we got.

 

This deal would give us a starter that averages 7+ innings a start. That is huge for our pen, which has been decent so far. But, at this pace, we are gonna need to do something there if we don't add a starter.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

804Sox... i greatly appreciate your posts. Its refreshing to have an outside perspective, from a successful/big market club, that doesn't resort to insulting us. I agree that we overvalue our propspects, but some of Doug Melvin's "untouchable" press might be to try and inflate the value of our prospects, much like the Yankees have long done. I don't think we think a marginal talent is top-25 league wide, but i do think our expectations for Gamel and Escobar are somewhat unrealistic.

 

I think one factor in all of this (that might cause friction between MA/DM) is that players like Hart/Hardy probably have an unmeasurable positive impact on the finances of the team and the visibility of the team. I think that a huge part, actually the majority of our attendance surge is based on the emergence of a female fan interest in the Brewers. I'd estimate that the attendance was 75/25 men/women in previous years, but the past 2-3 as we've grown to 3 million plus, that ratio is closer to 55/45. I realize we're in this to win and not "look pretty", but that is a huge factor IMHO in looking not only at what players will be solid for the next 4-5 years, but also what players will be the most marketable.

 

Hart, and especially Hardy. are not only well established with their baseball skills, but also established as household names for our TV/Merchandise etc. I don't think that can be overstated. My sister, who is a baseball fan, but by no means a diehard, knows the names of 10-12 brewers.

 

At the end of the day, i think Lawire and Escobar are going to be special talents, but i think we need to "go for it" in the next 2 years, and then rebuild around Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Gamel, and Yovani. Elite SP, Shortstop, Catcher, and 3B are the toughest positions to fill with elite talent. I have every confidence that Hardy is a .275/.340/.475/.815 hitter with above average defense and huge marketing appeal. I think Gamel will be a .310/.350/.475/.825 type hitter (think Jeff Cirillo), and Braun of course is the franchise. After our "run", i think Hart & Fielder become trading pieces to reload our pitching in 2011-12, and then we go for it again in 2013-2014.

 

Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Gamel, 1B, (Lucroy/Salmone), OF, OF, P i think is our "core" for the future, and we trade whatever it takes to "go for it now"

 

I love the Twins model, but lately, that only gets us to top-6 every now and again.... it seems like the Marlins, while having a pathetic fan base, seem to have a better model to get over the top

[sargennm]

The Brewers lineups can now be fully projected through to 2011 with considerable talent on offense, and well within budget. We would be a World Series favorite in 2009 and 2010, and a contender in 2011 if we develop pitching.

That might be one of the best posts I've ever seen on this board. Other than I think Hart's value is too low to be included in the deal, I really can't argue with your logic. Nice job. I hope Melvin is reading this.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Not to reply to myself... but these are the deals i'd look to push in the coming days

 

Escobar, Lawrie, Parra, Salmone for Halladay and Rolen

Mid Level Propspects for Doug Davis

 

Resign Hardy 5/60, send Gamel back to AAA (Sept 1 call-up)

 

McGehee, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Rolen, Cameron, Hart, Cameron

Halladay, Yo, Davis, Bush, Looper/Soup

[Never Outhustled]

How about Hart, Escobar, Parra, and Scarpetta for Halladay and Rolen?

Toronto is full in the OF/DH spots with Snider, Wells, Rios, and Lind.

 

 

Escobar, Lawrie, Parra, Salome for Halladay and Rolen

Toronto has a top catching prospect in Taylor Teagarden JP Arencibea, so they have no need for Salome. Getting Rolen is a massive addition in salary to the already massive addition that Halladay is.

 

That might be one of the best posts I've ever seen on this board. Other than I think Hart's value is too low to be included in the deal, I really can't argue with your logic. Nice job. I hope Melvin is reading this.

Thanks, I've spent days running this one through my head. I've projected salary and linups through 2013. I feel we're in great shape as an organization, and think we need to capitolize on our depth now, as winning helps fuel future payrolls.

 

Edit; for accuracy

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

For 2010, no way we'd be able to bring back Cameron. Maybe they make the move of Rickie to CF and go with McGehee at 2B with Gamel at 3B or find a 3B and move Gamel to RF. They'd have one hole to fill after finding a home for Gamel.

 

Great work X...my guess is pulling in Boston is the toughest part of that deal.

[TooLiveBrew]

Toronto has a top catching prospect in Taylor Teagarden, so they have no need for Salome. Getting Rolen is a massive addition in salary to the already massive addition that Halladay is.

 

When did they get Teagarden from TEX? I swear I even saw Teagarden catching for the Rangers this season.

[Never Outhustled]

When did they get Teagarden from TEX? I swear I even saw Teagarden catching for the Rangers this season.

Your right, I meant JP Arencibia.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm really not down with throwing Brett Lawrie in any deal. Escobar or Gamel maybe, but I do not want Lawrie gone.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd have a tough time giving up Lawrie and Escobar both in the same deal. I would think the Jays would be big time interested in Lawrie. Maybe Lowrie, Salome, Parra and a another top 20ish prospect would get this done. I wouldn't go any higher than that.

[Invader3K]

I know no one wants to "mortgage the future", etc...but if there's any way we can get a pitcher of this caliber, it needs to get done. World Series by 2010 or bust, in my view.