Roy Halladay

[RyDogg66]

No Jon Heyman from SI is speculating that the Brewers might only be able to nab Halladay if they give up Parra, Escobar and Gamel. Why not just give them Lawrie too while we are assuring ourselves of lean years from 2011-2015.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I caught that too: "The Brewers may be the biggest threat to the Phillies, but probably only if they're willing with shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar and maybe also top hitting prospect Mat Gamel. Left-hander Manny Parra's name is believed to be in the mix, as well."

 

He doesn't specificially say they would have to trade all three to get Halladay, just suggesting one or some combination of those three will be needed. I can't believe Melvin would give up all three to get Halladay.

 

I'm personally hoping Parra is not dealt, maybe even more than the other two. I guess I'd be willing to do a package centered around Parra, but not with Escobar and/or Gamel as well. Trading Parra just creates another hole to fill.

[sheethead]

...however, if you check out that blog on a regular basis, the vast majority of discussion there is pretty much drivel. Basically the polar opposite of this forum.

 

This is a more accurate, and a less generalizing, way to describe the JSOnline Blogs. Pretty much what you would expect when absolutely no standards are set (other than no cursing).

 

I am hoping Melvin stands pat. Unless the players decide to step it up and go 7-0 on this homestand, its not worth cashing in the crop for one starting pitcher.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'll echo what many others feel. Putting Parra into the deal just creates more holes. If it takes an Escobar to do it, it's a tough pill to swallow, but I'd rather go for it. I'd package a deal around Escobar & Lawrie. If the price gets too high, I hope DM just walks away, but having Halladay through 2010 (if that can be assured) and with Yo in a playoff series if we can get there is awfully compelling.

 

If we don't go down the Halladay route, acquiring another pitcher still makes some sense. I'm not sure I'd deal any of the top guys to do it, but that 5th starter spot is a black hole. Unless Burns is out there against a glorified AAA team like the Mets without all of their players, they are basically waving the white flag. We are also seeing the impact on the bullpen that is awfully taxed. If the deal isn't there now it should be for Hardy/Hart in the offseason.

 

When the team was on their hot streak, all it took was some quality starts. I know it's not the best metric, but for this team it makes some sense. Just keep them in the game through six, and they'll usually get the runs. The bullpen was in much better shape too.

[shelmark]

I don't know if we should make a play for Halladay or not, but I do believe we should trade Gamel. I don't see him being anything special at all, and we need to infuse some pitching into the organization. I think the show is going to be too big for Gamel and I don't think he has the mental makeup to be a star, something you hope a top prospect might become. Just my take on the guy, hope I don't offend anyone.

[Invader3K]

I almost wonder if Melvin could call both the Ricciardi and Shapiro and offer up a package of Escobar, Lawrie, and a couple lower level prospects for either Lee or Halladay, and see who bites first. Maybe put out that he's talking with a couple other GMs for other top tier pitchers as well. Take the ball and put it in their court, and see which GM blinks first. With the trade deadline only a week away, it can't really hurt to get aggressive at this point.

 

Also, SoCal makes a good point about pitchers "keeping the team in the game". It seems like when the offense sees they are in the hole early, they tend to press and try too hard at the plate. They seem to have improved on that a bit lately (like in Wednesday's game, even though they ultimately lost), but overall it has to be tough when you see you are down by five or six runs after only four innings or so.

[Hate those Rodents]

I hope you all know that if we trade Escobar, we will give Hardy a contract that will look much worse than Hall's. It isn't that we NEED either of the two to be the SS of the future, but one will be. And if we trade Escobar, Hardy will be making so much for so little production, it will be unbelievable. Just keep that in mind when you throw Escobar's name in for rental plus pitching.

[fondybrewfan]

I hope you all know that if we trade Escobar, we will give Hardy a contract that will look much worse than Hall's. It isn't that we NEED either of the two to be the SS of the future, but one will be. And if we trade Escobar, Hardy will be making so much for so little production, it will be unbelievable. Just keep that in mind when you throw Escobar's name in for rental plus pitching.

It isn't inconcievable that both Escobar & Hardy could be traded. Doug could trade Escobar now and Hardy in the offseason. Yeah he would have to find a replacement, but if the players gained in the trades are good enough I am fine with finding some sort of stopgap at SS through FA. Heck we are already paying Hall next year, stick him back at SS if you have too. SS isn't a premium offensive position anyways, if we can improve our offense at the catcher position it is probably a wash.

 

Not sure what the FA SS crops looks this offseason.

[lloydbraun]

Not sure what the FA SS crops looks this offseason.

Orlando Cabrera OAK

Bobby Crosby OAK

Adam Everett DET

Alex Gonzalez * CIN

Khalil Greene STL

John McDonald TOR

Marco Scutaro TOR

Miguel Tejada HOU

Jack Wilson * PIT

 

* - player whose current contract includes 2010 option

 

This crop definitely does not look too promising, but if it comes down to it, I would not be horribly upset with either Everett or Scutaro.

[Never Outhustled]

I hope you all know that if we trade Escobar, we will give Hardy a contract that will look much worse than Hall's. It isn't that we NEED either of the two to be the SS of the future, but one will be. And if we trade Escobar, Hardy will be making so much for so little production, it will be unbelievable.

 

Thats only you opinion, and its factless and baseless. I doubt the team would give Hardy an extension, but too assume it would be a terrible investment isn't based on the information we have. What if Hardy has a year next year like he had last year? Its possible, unless he's suddenly washed up in the prime of his career. 2 years of the contract would already be paid for in production from just 1 season.

 

Hardy was worth $30.8 million over the last 2 years, thats awesome production. Even this year, while he's have a dreadful year at the plate, he's on pace to be worth about $8 million.

 

What kind of contract do you think Hardy will get? For your opinion to become fact, he'd have to get what Texerira got. I don't think thats what anyone is projecting.

[nate82]

Thats only you opinion, and its factless and baseless. I doubt the team would give Hardy an extension, but too assume it would be a terrible investment isn't based on the information we have. What if Hardy has a year next year like he had last year? Its possible, unless he's suddenly washed up in the prime of his career. 2 years of the contract would already be paid for in production from just 1 season.

But what if Hardy falls off like Hall did then what? You are paying Hardy about twice as much as Hall is currently making and that would put the Brewers in a financial bind. I'm just not sold on Hardy right now and the amount it would take to lock him up long term. I'll take my chances with Escobar over an aging free agent that is going to cost more and you may not even get the same production out of the FA.

 

I believe the trade market will be better in the off season or there are cheaper options with a longer contract that the Brewers can get right now. Hardy to the Twins for some pitching maybe a better deal than trading a lot of young talent for 1.5 years of Halladay.

[Never Outhustled]

But what if Hardy falls off like Hall did then what?

Like I said, Hardy is on pace to be worth about $8 million this year, because of his defense. Do you expect Hardy to fall off defensively? There's no evidence to suggest that at all, his UZR/150 is actually better than it was last year.

 

I'm not suggesting extending him, I'm just disagreeing with the gross exaggeration Hate The Rodents made.

[NievesNoNO]

The longer the Brewers stay in the mix for Halliday the more I believe it will happen. I haven't heard their name linked to any other player. To me aquireing Lopez as basically a rental signifies that they're serious about at least making a run at the play-offs again. Whether it's a good trade down the road I don't know. If it includes Parra and Escobar I don't really like the deal, but it's hard to argue with making a run at it with a guy like Halliday. I have to assume there is some pressure on Doug as well to win with this current group of players.

[nate82]

Like I said, Hardy is on pace to be worth about $8 million this year, because of his defense. Do you expect Hardy to fall off defensively? There's no evidence to suggest that at all, his UZR/150 is actually better than it was last year.

 

I'm not suggesting extending him, I'm just disagreeing with the gross exaggeration Hate The Rodents made.

I'm more concerned with Hardy's offense than his defense his defense will be fine but when you are paying a player $8m plus he better be playing really good offensively especially when you have or had someone who can do almost exactly the same at a lower rate. I just don't want to be paying for another Hall with good defense while the offense is lacking and Hardy is going to get a bump in pay in arbitration after this year. I would rather see Escobar next year who will cost about 1/4 of what Hardy will cost and it will be near the same amount of production.

 

Plus Escobar + pitching from Hardy trade > Hardy and Halladay in the long run. Short-term this is good but long-term I will take Escobar and what the Brewers can get for Hardy in a trade.

[Never Outhustled]

I would rather see Escobar next year who will cost about 1/4 of what Hardy will cost and it will be near the same amount of production.

 

Thats only true if you assume Hardy hits next year like he has so far this year, and thats a bold assumtion. This is his worst offensive year of his career. More likely, this is an outlier. If Hardy hits next year like he did last year, he'd be worth about $15 million more than Escobar.

[paulmolitor4]

I would rather see Escobar next year who will cost about 1/4 of what Hardy will cost and it will be near the same amount of production.

 

Thats only true if you assume Hardy hits next year like he has so far this year, and thats a bold assumtion. This is his worst offensive year of his career. More likely, this is an outlier. If Hardy hits next year like he did last year, he'd be worth about $15 million more than Escobar.

It's not a bold assumption if you watch Hardy's at bats. He shows absolutely no signs of making adjustments with his swing or to how pitchers are attacking him.

[Never Outhustled]

It's not a bold assumption if you watch Hardy's at bats. He shows absolutely no signs of making adjustments with his swing or to how pitchers are attacking him.

You mean he looks like everyone does in a slump. The concern thats he's lost it would be if he's lost batspeed. I don't see that, and no one has suggested it. To assume a good player who's slumping has completely lost it is usually a wrong assumption.

[paulmolitor4]

It's not a bold assumption if you watch Hardy's at bats. He shows absolutely no signs of making adjustments with his swing or to how pitchers are attacking him.

You mean he looks like everyone does in a slump. The concern thats he's lost it would be if he's lost batspeed. I don't see that, and no one has suggested it. To assume a good player who's slumping has completely lost it is usually a wrong assumption.

He has poor hand position (his hands are too low). Look at where his hands are compared to any good hitter in baseball (Mauer, Pujols, Suzuki, or even Braun and Fielder). Sure he can drive the ball with that nice backspin Bill Schroeder likes to talk about, but his timing has to be just right due to his hand position. Otherwise he pops the ball up or hits a lazy fly ball. Also pitchers are working him more and more with offspeed stuff out away from him, and he has failed to make necessary adjustments. He either swings and misses at these pitches or hits a weak grounder. This is a large part of what has happened with Hall and Hart (although I have to give credit to Hart... he is doing a better job with this than Hardy).

[nate82]

You mean he looks like everyone does in a slump. The concern thats he's lost it would be if he's lost batspeed. I don't see that, and no one has suggested it. To assume a good player who's slumping has completely lost it is usually a wrong assumption.

But this isn't like an every other slump. Most slumps last a few weeks this has been going on for awhile now. It has been exactly two months since Hardy has had a good month overall.

 

Hardy's stats broken down by month so far this year.

By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	22	1	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	0	1	.136	.136	.273	.409
April	77	5	12	1	0	3	7	7	0	19	0	0	.156	.224	.286	.510
May	80	16	25	6	1	2	17	11	2	9	0	0	.313	.400	.488	.888
June	101	16	23	2	0	3	8	10	0	22	0	0	.228	.295	.337	.632
July	66	6	14	1	1	3	11	2	0	16	0	1	.212	.232	.394	.626

Hardy's best month was May and every other month after and before that was and is below average. Hardy hasn't looked like he has made any adjustments at the plate and his power numbers are looking rather bleak. He has a total of 3 doubles since May and his walk rate is declining while his strike out rate is rising. If this was Hall or Weeks you would be hearing screams of benching those two or to DFA them.

 

Hardy has been the worst everyday player for the Brewers for the past two months. Hall is nearly producing as much as Hardy is right now and Kendall is out performing Hardy by a wide margin. This is not your ordinary slump there is definitely something wrong here and I just don't trust Hardy at all anymore with the bat. If it wasn't for Hardy's defense picking up his game offensively he would be the worst everyday starter on the team right now.

[Hate those Rodents]

X - nobody is arguing with you or defending you on this one. And to think Hardy is worth 8 million this season without really being able to hit a ball is almost as laughable as saying he was worth over thirty million the past two seasons. I don't care what website or obscure stat says otherwise. But other than this issue, I do like your posts.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It's probably a moot point since Hardy will not be extended by the Brewers, but he is hardly in the Hall camp. He's not hitting the ball as well as the last two seasons, but he has also run into some bad luck this year. He's hit the ball pretty well at times, but right at people. His low BABIP supports that thesis. Maybe you guys are right as well that he isn't as good as the last two years either.

 

However, he does have a high value since he plays good defense at a premium position and hits the ball far better than the average Shortstop. Hall is a bad hitter at a premium offensive position which makes his contract really hard to stomach. Even if Hardy got a Hall contract from the Brewers I can't imagine he would play anywhere near as far below the contract level as Hall has. His D alone and even his offensive stats this year are nowhere near as far below replacement value as Hall is.

 

That being said, I fully agree that he needs to be moved for pitching if we don't move Escobar.

[nate82]

It's probably a moot point since Hardy will not be extended by the Brewers, but he is hardly in the Hall camp. He's not hitting the ball as well as the last two seasons, but he has also run into some bad luck this year. He's hit the ball pretty well at times, but right at people. His low BABIP supports that thesis. Maybe you guys are right as well that he isn't as good as the last two years either.

 

However, he does have a high value since he plays good defense at a premium position and hits the ball far better than the average Shortstop. Hall is a bad hitter at a premium offensive position which makes his contract really hard to stomach. Even if Hardy got a Hall contract from the Brewers I can't imagine he would play anywhere near as far below the contract level as Hall has. His D alone and even his offensive stats this year are nowhere near as far below replacement value as Hall is.

 

That being said, I fully agree that he needs to be moved for pitching if we don't move Escobar.

I'm not buying the luck thing anymore it has been to long for luck to be having this much of an effect on Hardy's lines. I believe his LD%/GB%/FB% show more what really is the problem with Hardy than BABIP does.

 

Hardy's LD%/GB%/FB%

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3797_SS_season_full_9_20090723.png

 

Hardy is just not hitting the ball that hard right now and that is evident in his decrease in LD% and the increase in FB%.

[TooLiveBrew]

And to think Hardy is worth 8 million this season without really being able to hit a ball is almost as laughable as saying he was worth over thirty million the past two seasons. I don't care what website or obscure stat says otherwise.

 

You can just spit on the dollar estimates if you like, but they are very useful comparative tools. I for one can say I find your outright dismissal of them really frustrating in these discussions.

 

 

I almost wonder if Melvin could call both the Ricciardi and Shapiro and offer up a package of Escobar, Lawrie, and a couple lower level prospects for either Lee or Halladay, and see who bites first. Maybe put out that he's talking with a couple other GMs for other top tier pitchers as well. Take the ball and put it in their court, and see which GM blinks first. With the trade deadline only a week away, it can't really hurt to get aggressive at this point.

 

Not a bad idea at all, Invader. Of course neither GM has to move either pitcher, but especially in Toronto's case, maybe a decent approach would be to lay that kind of offer out there & tell them, 'Let us know if you find a better offer that we'd need to beat.' If the Phillies are the other rumored frontrunner, doesn't that mean the Brewers have a pretty nice advantage in terms of farm systems?

[sheethead]

It's probably a moot point since Hardy will not be extended by the Brewers, but he is hardly in the Hall camp.

 

Yet. It took Bill Hall 2.5 years to get to the Bill Hall camp. Barring major adjustments (and I think his stance in hindering him greatly, but what do I know), he is heading to Camp Hall faster than Hall got there.

You mean he looks like everyone does in a slump.

 

I think he looks like everyone does when they are terrible.

[Weirdos19]

I say offer Gamel or Hardy, Lawrie, Scarpetta, and Brewer or Dykstra. If they say no, move on. Hardy could easily be flipped to the Red Sox for more prospects. The way Counsell is hitting this year, I have zero problem with a Prince, Lopez, Counsell, McGehee/Gamel infield for the rest of this year.

 

I think offering that package is fair. Any more and it's too much.

 

I do have one question though. Is making the playoffs this year less important than last year?? Just wondering because we would've made this trade for CC last year without thinking twice.

 

If we made the playoffs 2 years in a row, we become even more attractive to free agents, IMO.