Brewers talking with Jeff Suppan

[Brian the Automator]

[ I don't think so. Pettitte wanted a one year deal because he doesn't know if he wants to pitch more than one more year. I'm sure if the Yankees or Astros could have, they would have eagerly given him 2 years at $24 million instead of one at $16. ]

 

My point is simply that fewer deals equals a higher dollar per year. If we're looking at Suppan for 4 years, he's going to be at more of a discount than Pettite would be for 1 or 2.

[trwi7]

Hey if we sign Suppan everybody on the 1st base side of the stadium should start blowing balls that are hit towards the right side of the infield so Hardy or Koskie can field them and to keep the ball away from Weeks.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Do you think if we did sign him and Melvin most likely knowing that he is a groundball pitcher would think more about moving Weeks to CF and Hall to 2B or maybe Graffy to 2B, Weeks to CF and Hall to LF? (Which I would hate, the last scenario that is.)

[deeswan]

What is suppan working with?

 

Soft-tossing RHP. About .500 for his career. I would call him an above-average innings-eater. Not as good as Doug Davis of '04 & '05, but better than Davis of last year. He would be considered the #4 starter on the Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

Not as good as Doug Davis of '04 & '05, but better than Davis of last year.

 

Actually, adjusted for park effects, Suppan was better than Davis in 05, FWIW. And much better than 06 Davis like you said.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

Instead of giving Suppan a huge contract, why not just try to re-sign Tomo Ohka? He'd definitely be cheaper, and they would both probably be our No. 4 starter.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Instead of giving Suppan a huge contract, why not just try to re-sign Tomo Ohka? He'd definitely be cheaper, and they would both probably be our No. 4 starter. ]

 

Injury concerns.

[Invader3K]

Suppan has been durable, more than Davis or Ohka. He'd be an upgrade.

 

The bottom line is that signing him would solidfy the rotation. We're not looking at a weak NL Central in '07 like last year. The Cubs and Astros have both added offensive weapons, and the Cards look like they may be improved over last year. Heck, even the Pirates and Reds have both made moves as well. If our biggest off season acquistions are Craig Counsell and Johnny Estrada (admittedly an upgrade at catcher), then we may as well throw in the towel now.

[M Skjellyfetti]

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Suppan has been durable, more than Davis

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For what it's worth, Davis has pitched 200+ innings the last 3 years. Suppan, none. He used to get 200 regularly, but now he hovers around the upper 100s. He also averages 2 or 3 less starts than Davis per year. So, basically, that's blatantly false.

[brewerfan82]

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If our biggest off season acquistions are Craig Counsell and Johnny Estrada (admittedly an upgrade at catcher), then we may as well throw in the towel now.

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I think you could easily argue that acquisitions weren't needed for this team to improve. While you can't count on health, you never expect it to be as bad off as losing two starting pitchers, a starting third baseman, a starting shortstop, and a starting second baseman for as much time as we did last year. Add to that a full year of Coco Cordero, a rebound by Jenkins, and continued improvement from Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Hart, and this team should be improved.

 

Adding Estrada (and even Counsell in my opinion) only add to that fact.

[JLAnders5621]

Just a little update from Ken Rosenthal:

 

msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6274402

[trwi7]

Nice job playing your hand Melvin, keep Jenkins value high with this little blurb.

 

General manager Doug Melvin says that he has the payroll flexibility to add Suppan even if he does not trade outfielder Geoff Jenkins, who will earn $7 million next season.

[Invader3K]

OK, I admit I was wrong on Suppan having more playing time than Davis. That doesn't change my opinion that he'd be a solid acquisition for Milwaukee.

[M Skjellyfetti]

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That doesn't change my opinion that he'd be a solid acquisition for Milwaukee.

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Fair enough. I agree to some extent. However, I do worry about the long-term ramifications should we pay too much (money and/or years) to get him.

[Invader3K]

I worry about it a little too...but I firmly believe the Brewers could be "one piece away" from contention. Suppan may or may not be that piece, but I'd be willing to chance it for the better at this point. I don't want to wait one or two more seasons for the next wave of youngsters. We've given a lot of support to the Brewers over the past few seasons...it's time for them to act on that good faith.

[Lil Dummy]

Suppan is going to earn more than $10M next year. He won't do so as a Brewer. Good P.R. work by Melvin to keep our name in the mix for quality free agents, just as it was to make a good faith offer to El Caballo before dealing him.

 

I look forward to Suppan signing with the Mets for something on the order of $13.5M/year, and seeing the writers for the Post crucify him two months into next season when he comes out of the gate at 2-6.

[TauPentaRei]

Doug is interested in landing Suppan with the same prospective success rate as my interest in "landing" Angelina Jolie.

 

That said, where is this supposed wizard investment banker with all of his creative finance options?... shouldn't Mark A be getting one of those 8 figure Goldmann Sachs-type bonuses this time of year?

 

how about... 4 years / 60M ?

 

signing bonus = $12M

2006: 7M

2007: 7M

2008: 17M (Gallardo, Villenueva)

2009: 17M (Inman, Jackson)

 

Rolling the dice on a 35 - 20 stretch and most any large market team would take him on for the last 2 years.

 

He comes to Milwaukee, but you are really *only* on the hook for 26 million. Might restore some of that waning "faith in winning" sentiment and fill the place up.

[RyDogg66]

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how about... 4 years / 60M

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That is like the Rangers outbidding the Braves by 90 million to land A-Rod. Suppan gets 4 years 45 million, tops, and that could be from the Rockies. I wouldnt got any higher than 4 years/44 million, and I might even front load his contract so it looks like

 

2007: 14 millio

2008: 12 million

2009: 10 million

2010: 8 million

 

That way he wont hurt us as much if we want to resign Hall, Cappy, or Sheets and if he stinks we it is easier to trade him.

[rluzinski]

He comes to Milwaukee, but you are really *only* on the hook for 26 million.

 

These contracts are guaranteed and you can't just assume you can trade any guy whenever you want to. The league is littered with aging, overpriced vets who teams are trying to give away and can't.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oooooh! Ry, that front-loaded contract is sexy. It's little details like that which make & break FA signings. Nice idea - that gives us a lot of financial flexibility in the not-too-distant future, and gets Suppan his $$ right away, which I'm sure is attractive to the player. I also agree that offering/paying Soup the 4yr/$60 -- both in money & duration -- is the epitome of what people are leery regarding a 'big' contract. While we can all (relatively safely) assert Soup's future trade value, there are no givens, and once you have a big salary three or four years down the road, it's almost certain that you'll have to eat at least some of the remaining $$$

 

On to a little gripe I have:

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If the Brewers had the chance to sign Pettite for a year at 16M, i'd actually suggest taking that risk.

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Pettitte wanted a one year deal because he doesn't know if he wants to pitch more than one more year. I'm sure if the Yankees or Astros could have, they would have eagerly given him 2 years at $24 million instead of one at $16.

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To respond to Brian the Automator (first quote) & JB12 (second quote) --

 

Pettite's deal is a one-year, $16 mil. deal, but there's a twist - it has a $16 mil. player option for 2008. It's not as simple as "shell out $16 mil. for one year & land him," and the value, as a two-year deal is $32 mil. I agree that Pettite wanted the deal done this way bc he's not sure about playing in '08, but it's very important to note that it took the team offering (from NYY's perspective) a two year deal.

 

Thus, to examine this as a one-year deal is, although not completely, flawed. BrianAuto is right on with this notion:

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In that low [one-year] of a duration, the $ per year is mitigated by the lack of risk.

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This is an excellent point, and really the only one I wrestle with in regards to signing Soup, who will reasonably command a 4 year deal. I am all in favor of getting that deal done, but I do worry about future implications on our core of younger players, and especially Benny.

 

(This is precisely why I like RyDogg's front-loaded idea)

[JohnBriggs12]

My original point was not that there was no risk with Suppan but that the risk is reduced considerably if he performs at his historical levels for two more seasons, because by then his remaining two years will be seen as a bargain for such a consistent solid starting pitcher so if the Brewers wish or are forced to unload him, they will have suitors.

 

Now that's true of most of this year's free agents but Suppan probably has been as consistent as any so he's less likely to tank in 07 and 08.

[TooLiveBrew]

agreed

[reillymcshane]

Whether the Brewers sign Suppan or not, the status of Sheets beyond 2008 is really questionable.

 

If he has further injuries, would we want him? If he does great, could we afford him, no matter if we are paying Suppan or not?

 

If Sheet pitches like he did in 2004 the next two years, he'll be looking at a $20 million/year deal. Even if he just stays healthy and pitches solid, he'll command $16-17 million/year.

 

Cappy, Bush, Weeks, Prince, Hardy, Capellan, Hall and perhaps another important player or two will be arby eligible after the 2008 season. That will cost a lot (especially as Cappy and Hall go into their final year of arby). Keeping Sheets, without signficant revenue additions, will be hard.

 

If he was Johan Santana-like successful, perhaps you do what you have to do to keep. But like the A's this off season, they let Zito walk, knowing he was going to get $15+ million.

 

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. Just looking at the facts of where pitching costs are going.

[DHonks]

For what it's worth, Davis has pitched 200+ innings the last 3 years

 

simple flaw with this is managerial style. Ned trusts his pitchers to get out of their own jams, and often pushes them an extra inning, going from 90-100, or 100-110 pitchers. Yet he can't be accused of overworking pitchers.

 

LaRussa is known for micro-managing. With a weak left handed hitter at the plate, and one man on, he'll go to the pen for a lefty to ensure the out occurs. Then he'll go back to a righty. I think having him as a manager likely kept Suppan's IP down. Plus, he only made around 31 starts each year...is that because of minor injuries or being skipped to keep Carpenter and Mulder on 5th day schedules?

[Invader3K]

That is true that LaRussa tends to change pitchers often during a game.

[reillymcshane]

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That is true that LaRussa tends to change pitchers often during a game.

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I read once that LaRussa makes his relievers look good because he understands their strengths and weaknesses really well, and more than anything, puts them in a position to succedd.

 

Over the past five years, St. Louis relievers have ranked 7th, 1st, 1st, 14th and 3rd in ERA in the NL.

 

Perhaps he knows what he's doing. Perhaps he's just had good arms. Maybe both.