Brewers talking with Jeff Suppan

[sbrylski]

I agree Al, I'd welcome the move, I'd just wince like crazy.

 

That sums it up well.

[Scooter1027]

I think that's the key to free agency this year period. Carlos Lee will help the Astros, but for that money and for that long? Soriano will help the Cubs, Meche will help the Royals, etc. Suppan would help this baseball team. He would fill a need for SP depth, and possibly give us a real nice season. But, if we sign him, we all need to be prepared to wince at the price tag, because it will be high. Perhaps we need to suck it up, get past the money, and accept him for what he is as a player -- an upgrade at a key position.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I'm not sure I understand your study... ]

 

Mine? I took exception with the idea that strikeout pitchers break down over the season, so I showed their progression in two categories (ERA over time and IP per start over time).

[Two Fisted Slobber]

Slobber,

 

I wasn't actually referring to your stats (sorry, I didn't make that clear). It was more a blanket statement regarding people judging players on long careers, when what really matters is recent history.

 

No offense taken. Someone asked for career stats, I provided. You pointed out the problem with using career stats. I thought I'd throw the number from the last three years out there. Personally, I'm not sure if I want Doug throwing gobs of money at Suppan (except for the fact that we wouldn't have to face him anymore).

[endaround]

Suppan would be really helpful next season. Its the following 3 he would be signed for that become an issue.

[DHonks]

endaround, once again this is a problem with the perception of Brewers' fans. They assume that signing a guy means we are stuck with him and his contract in its entirety. The reality of the situation is that if he continues pitching well, he'll have a lot of trade value. It sure would be nice if Jackson, Gallardo, Inman, Rogers, Jones, Parra, etc would force the Brewers to find room.

[Patrick425]

I started a thread about this in the Major Leagues forum. I didn't realize that there was also a thread about it in this forum, so obviously it was locked. Sorry if I stepped on anyones toes, but I usually don't visit this forum because it's it tends to get filled with a lot of "wishes" rather than actual substatiated "rumors". Here is what Brian stated when we locked the thread...

 

Quote:

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Until deals are complete, not-yet-completed trades and signings always go in the rumors forum....

---

 

I don't want to come off sounding like a jerk, but I guess I would just like a little more clarification. There seems to be a lot of "rumor" type threads in the ML forum. For example the Lieber, Burrell and R. Lopez threads. How are those "rumors" different from the Suppan "rumor"? The Brewers didn't "complete" a deal with either of those guys.

 

Don't jump on me...I just want to be clear for future postings.

[Invader3K]

Exactly...just because the Brewers would theoretically sign him for four years, doesn't mean he'd play with the Brewers for all four years. Just because the contract would be for $40million+, doesn't mean the Brewers would necessarily pay even half of that.

 

Plus, salary relief could be found by trading Geoff Jenkins and/or Brady Clark (among other "pieces").

 

I'm much more optimistic after reading that article. Please, Mr. Melvin, give us an early Christmas present by signing Jeff Suppan!

[BREWCREW5]

Quote:

---

I don't want to come off sounding like a jerk, but I guess I would just like a little more clarification. There seems to be a lot of "rumor" type threads in the ML forum. For example the Lieber, Burrell and R. Lopez threads. How are those "rumors" different from the Suppan "rumor"? The Brewers didn't "complete" a deal with either of those guys.

---

 

TYPICALLY, only completed deals go in the major league section. Suppan is only a rumor right now even though Melvin has confirmed the crew will make an offer to him. There is no reason to have the same topics going on in two different sections. Really, this section is more than just rumors anyways, and I think that is where you are getting hung up.

[Brian the Automator]

[ There seems to be a lot of "rumor" type threads in the ML forum. For example the Lieber, Burrell and R. Lopez threads. How are those "rumors" different from the Suppan "rumor"? The Brewers didn't "complete" a deal with either of those guys. ]

 

Can you post links to those threads? I just want to see what the context of them was when they started out.

[Patrick425]

I don't want to change the direction of this thread . However, Brian, here are the links I was referring too...

 

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=13616.topic

 

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=13570.topic

 

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=13581.topic

 

Here's another one that didn't involve the Brewers but might be constituted as "rumor" forum type material:

 

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=13529.topic

[aracko]

Id like to see Suppan in the rotation next year. Save Zack Jack and Villaneueva for the rotation if we have an injury to one of our starting rotation. This is a guy who has started over 300 games in his career, and pitched over 1800 innings! He doesnt walk batters (which makes me like him already), amd most importantly seems to have put something together over the last 4 seasons where his ERA was never higher than 4.19.

 

Id like to get a scouting report on Jeff Suppan. I really dont know what he throws other than a Sinker in the low 90s and a pretty decent curveball. You dont survive in the starting rotation 11 years if you only have 2 pitches so can somone please educate me?

[JohnBriggs12]

Everybody who's concerned about paying this guy $10 or $11 million for 4 years listen up. Let's look at this logically.

 

What did the Yankees pay soon to be 35 year old Andy Pettitte? I think it was $16 million correct?

 

What did the Cubs pay the worst starting pitcher (by numbers) in the NL last year?

 

Are teams willing to trade for 37 year old Jon Lieber making $7 million?

 

Didn't 41 year old Greg Maddux just sign for $10 million?

 

Here's my point. If Suppan stays healthy and puts up average years in 07 and 08, teams will line up to trade for him for the final two years of his contract even at $10-11 million per.

 

There's no need either to hold back Villanueva. His upside may be higher than Vargas. Let them battle it out in spring.

Hope they both do well, then you have 6 solid starters, with the ability to trade any one of 4 of those 6 for a real good offensive player.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I don't want to change the direction of this thread . However, Brian, here are the links I was referring too... ]

 

In the first thread, it was from a new user who didn't understand. Pogokat replied with that message in the thread.

 

It's a pretty gray area... If you had been the first to start a Suppan thread in the major league forum, it might have stuck... but since there was a lengthy one in rumors, that one is alive.

 

A key indicator as to whether a thread should be in the rumors forum is if there's a link to an article where the Brewers are in the running for a player...

[rluzinski]

endaround, once again this is a problem with the perception of Brewers' fans. They assume that signing a guy means we are stuck with him and his contract in its entirety.

 

Dhonks, once again this is a problem with the perception of Brewers' fans. They assume that signing a guy means we can just get rid of him and his contract in its entirety whenever we want. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Suppan is a nice pitcher. I'm just not sure a team like the Brewers should be tying him up for 4 years, however. It also makes me very nervous to think of the Brewers signing a pitcher longterm that relies heavily on infield defense. With the likes of Weeks, Fielder and Braun being his defenders for years to come, that's just asking for trouble.

 

The difference between a 1.3 WHIP and a 1.4 WHIP is 20 baserunners over 200 innings, or one baserunner over 10 innings.

 

That's a huge difference. Converting 1 out to one base runner is worth over half a run. That's why team defense is such a huge variable in a pitcher's ERA, especially for groundball pitchers.

 

What's $2-3M more between friends? It isn't our money.

 

You realize that the Brewers operate on a finite budget, right?

[Brian the Automator]

[ Everybody who's concerned about paying this guy $10 or $11 million for 4 years listen up. Let's look at this logically. ]

 

I think that you can pretty much throw out comparisons with players who've signed 1-year deals. In that low of a duration, the $ per year is mitigated by the lack of risk. If the Brewers had the chance to sign Pettite for a year at 16M, i'd actually suggest taking that risk.

 

[ Are teams willing to trade for 37 year old Jon Lieber making $7 million? ]

 

Most teams seem to only be willing to take that trade if they can dump off contract to equal that salary.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brian, you don't think if Suppan goes 26-22 with a 4.20 ERA over the next two seasons, teams wouldn't line up for 2 years of him for a total of $20-22 million?

 

Assuming the market doesn't fall apart, that isn't much of a total outlay in money or years to the big market teams for middle of the rotation pitching.

[zachjack13]

The only reason he will want so much is because the others that have signed have ridiculous contracts. Either they overhype themselves or the agents have done a heck of a job getting them the money. I like Suppan in the postseason, but I'm iffy on him in the regular season. But he is asking for too much money.

[Patrick425]

I don't see how Suppan signs for any less than Meche. He will end up getting at least $11mil/per..and will probably end up in the $45mil - to $50mil for 4 years.

[aracko]

9 pages of threads about weather or not he would be good for the team and I dont see any discussion of whats in his tool shed. What is suppan working with?

[dpapo]

Suppan would help solidify the rotation, but at 10-11 million a year for 4 years, that would be a bit steep. I have mixed feelings about it, but if Mark A. feels like he has the resources to do it...

At this point, he is probably the second best pitcher available behind Zito, and the only pitcher left worth considering spending that type of money on.

This is also probably a sign that the Brewers are having zero luck attracting any type of quality starting pitching for Mench and/or Jenkins. That might be the other shoe of this whole deal, if it goes down. It's already been mentioned here, but if by signing Suppan the Brewers are able to trade Mench and/or Jenkins for help in other areas of the team, or even some decent prospects, then I would be view the signing more favorably as well.

Probably ain't going to happen anyways, but it beats talking about Graffanino, Counsel and Cirillo. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JohnBriggs12]

"I think you can throw out comparisons with players that signed one year deals"

 

I don't think so. Pettitte wanted a one year deal because he doesn't know if he wants to pitch more than one more year. I'm sure if the Yankees or Astros could have, they would have eagerly given him 2 years at $24 million instead of one at $16.

 

As for Maddux, he basically got a 2 year deal because it has a player option for $6 million the second year.

[dpapo]

This scouting report appears to be about 3 years old, but it's something about Suppan's stuff.

 

Scouting Report by Stats Inc.

Pitching

Lacking one overpowering pitch, Suppan is successful by mixing speeds and locations. He will sink his fastball, which usually does not top the low 90s. He also shows a cutter, can often get ahead with his good curveball, and will also throw changeups in any count. Suppan has above-average control, though he can tend to nibble too much with runners on base. He rarely makes hitters miss the ball, and that hurts when he is in a situation that requires a strikeout. Suppan can eat innings, though he was under 200 innings last year for the first time in six years. At times he had trouble holding his best stuff much the past 100-pitch mark.

Defense & Hitting

Suppan fields his position well, but he lacks a decent pickoff move and is slow coming home. That makes him vulnerable to stolen bases, and basestealers were successful last year in 11 of 14 tries. He is not much of a threat batting, but he does handle the bat well enough to be serviceable in sacrifice bunt situations.

[splitterpfj]

Pettitte also has a player option for a second year.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Brian, you don't think if Suppan goes 26-22 with a 4.20 ERA over the next two seasons, teams wouldn't line up for 2 years of him for a total of $20-22 million? ]

 

Yeah, IF.