Brewers talking with Jeff Suppan

[Ennder]

There it is... ERA, thats what it comes down to. You guys are buying into the ERA and I'm looking at all of his other stats which don't support the ERA.. there is a simple reason for it, the cardinals have beent he best defensive team in the NL and make their pitchers look better than they are. 2003 was Suppan's best year and he put up a respectable 4.19 ERA and his stats actually mostly support that ERA. The last 3 years he has regressed each year but it doesn't always show in the ERA.

 

I guess we'll agree to disagree and we'll see how his ERA looks for another team, in my opinion it will be jumping over 4.50 just like his FIP's suggest.

 

www.hardballtimes.com/tht...e_filter[0]=2&orderBy=fip&direction=ASC&page=1

 

That is a link to pitchers sorted by FIP and I in general agree with where he belongs on that list, right around the Vargas, Maholm, Lieber types. Those guys to me are #4 SP in the NL however now that I look it I guess those are actually #3's once you take out the partial year guys like Sheets.

[DHonks]

Suppan=Vargas

 

that seems crazy. By the stats, Suppan has been solid-to-good since 1999. Vargas is a fairly young guy who hasn't done much, but has shown glimpses of what he can do. I was looking at stats more like ERA+, and that shows that Suppan is consistantly above league average. It's not just a 3 year window as people would have us believe. I was rather shocked by how good his numbers have been, as I had branded him a journeyman long ago.

[Ennder]

Suppan=Vargas last year would be something I could agree with, I do agree that Vargas has to show that he can pitch as well as last year or preferablly better before really comparing them and Suppan is a safer bet, though Vargas has a lot more upside.

[DannyKmilw]

Ks are a dead end...

 

true it is a dead end but Ks usually mean high pitch counts and thus giving away to the bullpen to early and in some cases the wearing down of that pitcher faster throughout the year.

[Ennder]

The past 3 years Suppan has thrown 3.8, 3.6, 3.7 pitches per PA.

 

Vargas has thrown 3.8 the past 2 years.

 

Sheets has thrown 3.8, 3.6, 3.7

 

Doug Davis has thrown 3.9, 3.9, 3.9

 

Randy Johnson 3.8, 3.7, 3.8

 

Zito - 4.0, 4.0, 3.9

 

The point is, I don't think the K's drive it up nearly as much as walks do. They seem to be the limiting factor on how deep into the count things go. The other factor is how many total batters are faced and with that high WHIP suppan faces a lot of batters.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that it would be absolutely idiotic to commit approx. 15% of the team payroll to Suppan for the next four years. Yes he has been durable, but that also means that he has a lot of miles on him as well. The guy has pitched over 1600 innings in the last 8 years. Just because he's not a power pitcher doesn't mean he won't get injured. He could hurt his back, have knee problems, etc - not to mention that he's not immune to arm problems. I can't think of many mediocre pitchers that teams have signed to big money long term deals over the years that have actually paid off. If the Brewers give Suppan big money, he'll probably just end up being compared to Higuera as to why they didn't have enough money to sign Weeks, etc. in three years.

 

Patience is warranted in this situation. There have to be better pitchers available than this next off-season. If the team starts off strong, why not acquire one of them even if they would just be a "rental". If the team commits to Suppan, this won't be an option.

[mothershipconnection]

If you have a low WHIP, why do K's matter?

 

If nobody's on base, who cares how a guy makes an out?

 

In that scenario, no there isn't a big difference. However, guys who K a lot of batters typically have better "stuff" and thus don't get hit as hard. It also renders the defense meaningless, which is a bonus when you have a team that may feature several sup-par defenders.

Whenever you look at K leaders, you're also generally looking at leaders in the other primary metrics - that's the main reason it matters.

[sbrylski]

Quote:

---

Suppan=Vargas

---

that seems crazy. By the stats, Suppan has been solid-to-good since 1999. Vargas is a fairly young guy who hasn't done much, but has shown glimpses of what he can do.

 

I more of meant from here going foward. I like Vargas as much or more than I like Suppan over the next three years.

[Rickie23Weeks]

where is the link to this rumor anyways???

[Brian the Automator]

[ true it is a dead end but Ks usually mean high pitch counts and thus giving away to the bullpen to early and in some cases the wearing down of that pitcher faster throughout the year. ]

 

I think the impact of K's on pitch counts are negligible. To prove this out a little, I did a mini-study involving the top 10 strikeout pitchers of 2006:

 

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y117/phearinc/kpitchersovertime.jpg

 

This shows that the distribution of innings per start and ERA is pretty much all over the board with no real trend.

[PeaveyFury]

There's no way the infield can screw it up

 

Well, yes, if you don't count the catcher as part of the infield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[PeaveyFury]

To extrapolate on Dhonks' point:

 

Suppan's ERA+ numbers from 1999-2006:

 

109

103

112

97

105

100

120

107

 

Please, find a way to get this guy.

[sbrylski]

I'm not sure I understand your study...

 

Aren't you comparing IP/G with ERA? Because you used pitchers with varying ERAs, won't that effect their IP/G more than the K's?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm going to run a few numbers comparing pitchers with similar ERAs and how there K/9 and IP/G compare.

[sbrylski]

Suppan's ERA+ numbers from 1999-2006

 

Again, ERA is a poor predictor of future success.

[PeaveyFury]

Again, ERA is a poor predictor of future success.

 

If that's the main argument, I don't see why park-adjusted ERA is any worse an indicator of future success than FIP-based ERA, which is being used by the anti-Suppan arguers.

 

I think there's something serious to be said for his consistent above-average pitching even after adjusting for the slight pitchers' park leanings of Busch.

 

Suppan has had success regardless of a low K-rate throughout his entire career. Sure, it might catch up to him, but why should it change now?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Again, ERA is a poor predictor of future success.

 

 

That might be the case, but in 6 of his 8 years, his ERA has been better than league average. WHIP and k rate and everything else are great statistics, no doubt, but Suppan has consistently been average/above average despite having poor secondary stats. If it was only a few years in which Suppan performed well, I'd be leery, but it's not.

[BREWCREW5]

Everyone stop getting so upset with one another. WE ARENT GOING TO SIGN HIM. HE WILL SIGN ELSE WHERE FOR MORE MONEY.

 

Rant over.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm no mod, but I'm sure there's been repeated posts by mods towards people who more or less tell other posters to "stop talking about this player because we'll never get him".

 

We're free to *speculate* all we want, regardless of how unrealistic it might be in someone else's opinion.

[sbrylski]

Here's my study. Sorry for the width.

 

I took the 18 pitchers with ERA's between 3.50 and 4.00 last year and plotted out how their K/9 rate effected their number of innings per start.

 

 

 

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/kipstudy.jpg

 

 

 

According to this, the claim made by Danny K that stated more K's will result in less IP is actually false. The trend line shows that a pitcher with a higher rate of strikeouts will actually tend to pitch deeper into games.

[lukevan]

"Rant over."

 

yeah, I don't think that exactly works at brewerfan.net don't be afraid of a heated debate, there isn't much else to talk about anyway.

 

Suppan is a fine pitcher, but I can't rationalize spending 10, 11, 12, or 13 million on him when Vargas is arguably comparable to him. A guy like Jason Schmidt could've had a definite impact, but I think we have pitchers on the verge of the majors (villanueva) who can duplicate what Suppan can produce. why break the bank for a guy like that when you are small market? Granted this would be way better than the Gil Meche signing, but it's in the same discussion for me.

 

and I don't think it's very likely that he would choose Milwaukee over a couple of the other destinations interested if the money offered is even equal.

 

just say no to Suppan (just like Maddux).

[Ennder]

I'm not a huge fan of park adjusted stats because they treat all types of pitchers the same. they just don't have the data to break it down into this park favors that pitcher and not the other. An example would be san diego which favors fly ball pitchers because quite simply its hard to hit HR's there. However it doesn't really favor ground ball pitchers but at the same time it has huge gaps to cover in the OF so any pitcher who gives up a lot of gap hits it has a negative effect on(this is why loretta did so well there) etc. There is simply not enough data to give an honest park adjustment.

 

Having said that I think Suppan is a pretty average pitcher, I ammended my statement saying he was a #4/#5 and he's probably really a #3/#4. I do think his past few years have shown regression when you take into account the defenses behind him though. I honestly think he'd be at best the Brewers 4th best starter and could be the #5 if Vargas improves.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm not a huge fan of park adjusted stats because they treat all types of pitchers the same. they just don't have the data to break it down into this park favors that pitcher and not the other. An example would be san diego which favors fly ball pitchers because quite simply its hard to hit HR's there. However it doesn't really favor ground ball pitchers.

 

That argument makes Suppan to Milwaukee all that more compelling, as his very slanted groundball/flyball ratio would make a switch to a serious groundball friendly park like Miller all that much better than a truly park neutral ERA+.

[DHonks]

Having said that I think Suppan is a pretty average pitcher, I ammended my statement saying he was a #4/#5 and he's probably really a #3/#4

 

I thought I remembered one of the baseball experts stating a few months back that league average isn't actually equivalent to the #3 spot. It was closer to one of the ends...does anyone remember which?

[BREWCREW5]

Quote:

---

I'm no mod, but I'm sure there's been repeated posts by mods towards people who more or less tell other posters to "stop talking about this player because we'll never get him".

---

 

Who exactly are you qouting here? Yourself? I just asked that people relax a little bit. I understand that people's opinions are going to vary about certain players. My point is however that there is little chance of Suppan signing to play in Milwaukee, so members here didnt need to argue with one another.

 

If you are going to qoute me, qoute me. Dont just make something up.

[dadofandrew]

I do not know what was written by others, but in my opinion, if you have a guy who throws 200 innings and has a league average ERA, that's a mighty valuable pitcher.

 

I assume league average is the total from all, starters and relief guys. If you can go through the order several times and still equal those who do not, that's a guy you want on your staff.