Brewers talking with Jeff Suppan

[Invader3K]

Let them have him. Give me some hope. Give me Suppan.

[bsglorydays]

Question.... Why aren't the Cardinals making a push for Suppan? With all the pitchers they have missed out on so far, I thought for sure Suppan would be headed back to STL. But, from everything I've read, the Cardinals are showing no interest at this point.

[cancer47]

I find this interesting, in light of recent history. I mean, people want the Brewers to go sign some free agents, but don't want to pay the truly big bucks for those who might actually have a thought regarding the city. At the same time, it's exceedingly hard to find anybody that actually wants to be here. So, why bother?

[brewmann04]

i hate to rain on the parade but i don"t think the Brewers price would be in Suppan Range.

would though make a nice addition though

[Ennder]

I guess we just have really different opinions on Suppan... I think he's a #4 starter on most teams and a #5 starter on some teams. The price tag is just way too high. I'd rather have Doug Davis back and by the end of the year I'm going to guess I'd rather have Vargas.

 

I'm guessing those that have a higher opinion of him but a lot more stock in ERA which I consider a mostly useless stat, it can even make Russ Ortiz look good if you put him in the right situation, even though his secondary numbers always stunk.

[Weirdos19]

I like Suppan. His ERA was under 2 in the second half last year, so he won't have a problem with stamina.

 

Sheets hasn't been healthy for two years. Cappy tires in September and nobody is real high on Vargas around here. None of the young guys (Villy, ZJ, Gallardo) have pitched over 180 innings.

 

We need an innings eater.

 

If things work right, we could get 200+ innings out of four pitchers. Our bullpen could be fresh down the stretch.

 

Maybe we won't have to hire garbage men to pitch this year, because our starters can get into the seventh.

[sbrylski]

I'm guessing those that have a higher opinion of him but a lot more stock in ERA which I consider a mostly useless stat, it can even make Russ Ortiz look good if you put him in the right situation, even though his secondary numbers always stunk.

 

The only thing I can do in this thread is wait until Ennder post something. Then I can quote it and say:

 

I agree.

[Weirdos19]

I don't understand how ERA is an overrated stat.

 

I would think earned runs per nine innings would mean something.

 

The people that didn't want Lieber said that his ERA was too high. My arguement was that his WHIP was low. But that didn't seem to matter.

 

Then people say that Suppan's ERA is misleading. Did anybody see him pitch in the second half or playoffs? That's the guy I want to see here next September. He dominated the Mets in the NLCS.

[homer]

I wouldn't call ERA useless - especially for a starter. But like any other stat it needs to be used in conjunction with other metrics. For a pitcher, that would mean WHiP, K:BB, GB:FB and maybe K/9 IP.

 

I don't think any one stat is more important than another, but you can get a pretty good idea of a guy's worth by taking them all into consideration.

[AJ Love]

I would absolutely overpay for Suppan. I'd go so far as give him the Carlos Lee 4 years 48 million offer. He would solidify the Brewers rotation bigtime and he's hot right now, coming off of being the NLCS MVP

[Weirdos19]

If you have a low WHIP, why do K's matter?

 

If nobody's on base, who cares how a guy makes an out?

 

The difference between a 1.3 WHIP and a 1.4 WHIP is 20 baserunners over 200 innings, or one baserunner over 10 innings.

 

Numbers like WHIP don't mean a thing if an ERA is low. A high WHIP and a low ERA means that a guy knows how to pitch out of jams. Nothing wrong with that.

[Weirdos19]

I'd take Suppan over Meche and Lilly.

 

 

In a heartbeat.

[Team Canada]

he's hot right now, coming off of being the NLCS MVP

 

Which is why there's a good chance someone will seriously overpay.

[bsglorydays]

I'd take Suppan over Meche and Lilly.

 

I agree.

 

Suppan vs Meche is no contest.

 

Suppan vs Lilly depends mostly on how much you value strikeouts, specifically stats like K/9 or K/BB. Where Suppan lacks in K/9, he makes up for in his ground ball / fly ball ratio IMO. Also Lilly is a lefty, in case that matters to anybody - doesn't to me.

[RockCoCougars]

Quote:

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Which is why there's a good chance someone will seriously overpay.

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Ah yes, the Larry Brown or Dexter Jackson effect. The more I think about it, the more I hope the Brewers steer clear. This guy is not a difference maker.

[TooLiveBrew]

"this guy is not a difference maker"

 

What?

 

I'm just puzzled. He won NLCS MVP, a WS ring, and has shown durability - he's made at least 32 starts for 8 consecutive years!!! (1999-2006)

 

and sustained success - in those 8 years, his record is 96-88. From 2003-2006, he's 57-37!! Where do you people get these notions about players?

 

This is the definition of a player that your budget should be re-adjusted to include! And, as already pointed out, he can actually HIT too! I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- this site is going to drive me crazier than Hamlet

 

I'll end with the perfect quote, from dadofandrew

Quote:

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I'd go get him. He's worth more than Lilly & Meche, and since he's not a hard thrower, his decline should be minimal

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That's why you can 'overpay' for him. He can, and will, continue to pitch at a high level into his late 30s

 

 

I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS!

[Ennder]

So you are pointing at the fact he was on a team that won a lot of games and he pitched well 2 games in the WS and saying that makes him good? I don't understand that logic at all. I guess that makes him better than Sheets in your book?

 

Take him away from the almost all gold glove calibre defense in STL and he's a 4.50+ ERA guy easily. His K rate is horrible, his HR rate is normal, his WHIP is high. The only positive thing about him is his groundball rate.. to me that just isn't enough. He's 31 years old so he's not going to get any better either. I guess all I can do is hope and pray someone makes him a better offer, I don't want to see him on the Brewers for more than $7-8M a year for what is a back of the rotation pitcher without much upside.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ennder, you just seem to miss my point. I think you're so wrong on so many points.

Quote:

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So you are pointing at the fact he was on a team that won a lot of games and he pitched well 2 games in the WS and saying that makes him good?

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No, I point to two bodies of work - one 8 years in the making, and one 4 years. That's not a small or limited sample space. It sounds to me like you need to look at Suppan's career more closely. The guy has pitched very, very well since becoming a full-time starter in 1999

Quote:

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I don't understand that logic at all. I guess that makes him better than Sheets in your book?

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Simply because you don't understand me doesn't give liscense to make broad, ridiculous generalizations that trivialize others' points. Re-examine what Suppan brings to the table. Not many SPs are both as durable and as winning as he has been in his career, not just the last year or two.

Quote:

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He's 31 years old so he's not going to get any better either

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Actually, since his game is not based on velocity, but control, he is going to be able to reasonably maintain his success until at least the age of 36 (or so)

 

I know we just disagree, but I'd appreciate if you'd take the time to recognize that I didn't just rush to my decision

[Ennder]

He was not an over .500 pitcher until he came to STL a team who won 100 games twice while he was there leading to his 16 win years. I don't know how else to look at his career stats when it comes to wins.

 

He's never had a WHIP under 1.30 in his career and only once has it been under 1.36. He's never had more than a 128 K's in a year and consistantly is in the 110 range. I don't see how you look at his career and say he has pitched very very well, he has been average or worse his entire career. The only thing that stops him from looking like a pure #4/#5 starter is the past 3 years which as I already stated are heavily influenced by STL's defense.

 

He'll actually be 32 at the start of next year and while yeah he may decline slowly I just don't see how you think having him signed to a long term contract making him the 2nd highest payed player on the team is a good thing. I'd much much rather have capuano and bush than suppan long term and I'd personally rather keep the cash to give to them when its time.

 

To take it one step further Vargas was better than Suppan last year in every way except HR's allowed and the fact Suppan is an extreme groundball pitcher which is generally a good thing, he's younger, has a more powerful arm and showed the same control as Suppan last year. It would not surprise me one bit to see him come out and outpitch Suppan this year making Suppan our #5 starter. I just don't get the love for him.

[billyhallfan]

I want this guy bad, I know we would have to overpay bad for him and two years from now we will all be mad because we gave him to much money. But I would crap my pants if this actually happened, once you get into a bidding war with the Mets, it is over!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[DannyKmilw]

Why is everyone hooked on Ks, i would much rather have a pitcher ala Madux, Lowe and the such, I am a huge fan the the ground ball pitcher. He would eat up more innings then Vargas.I would much rather see that kind of guy on the mound at miller park. Besides it also keeps your defense on its toes with a pitch to contact guy.

[dadofandrew]

I think he's a #4 starter on most teams and a #5 starter on some teams.

 

There's not a team in baseball with 3 better SP's than Suppan, never mind 4. Simply put, that's just an untrue statement.

 

He was in the Cards' postseason rotation, but is a #4/5 SP?

 

He has had a lower than league average ERA almost every year the past 5 years, and he's a #4/5 SP?

 

Oof.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Why is everyone hooked on Ks, i would much rather have a pitcher ala Madux, Lowe and the such, I am a huge fan the the ground ball pitcher. ]

 

There's two reasons people are obsessed with K's:

 

1) A K is a dead-end. There's no way the infield can screw it up, there's no way it can find a hole through the infield, and no one can beat out a throw on one (well sorta). It can't dribble down the line, and it can't leave the park. It's the only sure thing.

 

2) K-rates are one of the most important secondary stats. They're a much better predictor often than ERA, which can be raised and lowered by park effects, and more often, luck.

[sbrylski]

I don't understand how ERA is an overrated stat.

 

I just feel it tells how a pitcher has pitched in the past moreso than how he will do in the future. K/BB, FIP, and xFIP are some stats that I feel should be used to help predict future success.

 

ERA tells what a pitcher has done while FIP tells what a pitcher should have done.

 

Suppan's ERA has been good, but his FIP has been nothing special. He could easily find his ERA drop near his 4.60 FIP or 4.71 xFIP over the past three years, especially without a great defense behind him.

[sbrylski]

There's not a team in baseball with 3 better SP's than Suppan, never mind 4. Simply put, that's just an untrue statement.

 

Sheets, Capuano, Bush

 

Suppan=Vargas