Brewers talking with Jeff Suppan

[brewmann04]

I was just Curious if the Brewers could Draw over 2 Mil with a mediocre Ball Club what could they draw if the ever would have put a winning team on the field.

 

Winning should increas profit

[RedbirdRay]

I've heard several times all these guys and their agents are waiting until after the Zito signing to negotiate in hopes it will drive up $. Zito is certainly drawing it out. I wish he'd sign already so Boras can get on to his other clients and some of these other guys would sign.

[Invader3K]

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The playing field is not level and Mark A. is in it for profit, first and foremost. Can't Brewer fans just accept it and move on? Fair or not, it's not changing anytime soon.

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rluzinski, so we should just accept that unless the stars align properly for one season, the Brewers will never have a shot at the playoffs?

[splitterpfj]

Suppan's agent is earning his money, but this could become very annoying.

 

Wait, no wait, Pittsburgh called back now, and we like them too, and somebody made an offer, and there's Milwaukee, and a mystery team, yeah, that's it...

 

Pirates update...

www.post-gazette.com/pg/06354/747460-63.stm

[trwi7]

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Suppan's agent is earning his money, but this could become very annoying.

 

Wait, no wait, Pittsburgh called back now, and we like them too, and somebody made an offer, and there's Milwaukee, and a mystery team, yeah, that's it...

 

Pirates update...

www.post-gazette.com/pg/06354/747460-63.stm

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Link doesn't work for me.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[dpapo]

The link worked okay for me.

[trwi7]

Works now.

[RockCoCougars]

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Wait, no wait, Pittsburgh called back now, and we like them too, and somebody made an offer, and there's Milwaukee, and a mystery team, yeah, that's it...

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When did this guy become the second coming of Roger Clemens? Geez... talk about hitting the market at the right time. Somebody is going to overpay big time for a slightly above average pitcher.

[patrickgpe]

MLB4u.com

 

"And the Brewers may have made the most recent offer of a 3-year, $33M deal with an option for 2010. He is seeking 4-years, $40-44M. The Pirates are unwilling to meet his asking price, but have a made a competitive offer. Still, talks with the Pirates are said to be diminishing. ...This rumor was last updated on 11:26 AM - Dec 19, 06. The source of this rumor was New York Post."

[Brian the Automator]

With that comment, it looks like Suppan to the Brewers is probably a 75% certainty.

[cancer47]

I thiink I agree with some of you that feel paying $40M+ for a pitcher who may be only marginally better than Carlos Villanueva (and that might be debatable) is silly, whether you're the Yankees or the Brewers. Just to get somebody to make a statement doens't make any sense whasoever. I could see (somewhat) paying some big bucks on Schmidt, and the Brewers did throw their hat in the ring for him, but Suppan? No.

[Ennder]

www.hardballtimes.com/mai...ur-dreams/

 

 

According to that article Suppan will be worth 2, maybe 3 wins on the year compared to a replacement level pitcher.

 

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Given the high cost of starting pitching in this year's market, there's an easy way to whether a signing has the potential to be a good one: does the team have a shot at contending? If the answer is no, spending nine figures per year for Jeff Suppan is ridiculous

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I pretty much agree with that quote from the article. Do we think that Suppan's 2 or maybe 3 wins added are what will push the Brewers into the playoff picture?

 

Personally I think it could be and the signing wouldn't be that bad, more importantly I think every year for the next 3-4 years we'll probably be that team on the cusp of the playoff picture and 2-3 wins could be the difference.

[1992casey]

It's only eight figures, but it's still a good point.

[Frisbee Slider]

The Hardball Times article makes a lot of sense. One additional point, Suppan wouldn't have to push the Brewers over the top in 2007. If he helps bring Milwaukee to the playoffs in 2008, the deal could still be considered "worth it."

 

If this deal means that we cannot lock up our younger players in 2009-2011...that would be very disappointing. If this is only a three-year deal...it would be over by then.

 

I'm going to trust Melvin.

[docduany]

I'm sorry that this will sound dumb to some of you. But while the numbers only show that Suppan may be worth 2-3 wins over replacement value, you almost have to add 2-3 wins on top of that since Suppan won't be oppossing the crew. 6 wins isn't anything to sniffle at. Add that to Suppans history in the post season 3-3 era 3.00 is more than we've got on the current staff. Is all that worth 4yrs/ 40 million? I don't know. I'm alright with this potential signing, we don't look to have a lot of other options at the moment. See Claudio Vargas.

 

And if (knock on wood) Yo and Carlos turn into to little stud ponnies at the MLB level within in the next season and a half maybe we can deal Suppan and his higher salary at the break in '08 for a bat. I know that's a giant stretch, but it's a thought.

[Frisbee Slider]

Can you imagine facing Jeff Suppan at PNC Park? That's like...double kryptonite. I think Suppan would continue to have success against our lineup if he went to Pittsburgh.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Not to sidetrack the discussion here but now that we know the exorbinate cost of FA pitching (Meche, Lilly horrible deals), would going after Vincente Padilla in retrospect have been a good move. His deal dosen't seem as horrible as the others. It seems like Suppan will get a similar deal 3-4 roughly 11mil per.

 

So the question I pose to you is who would be the better value Padilla at 12mil per or Suppan at 11 mil per?

[Oldcity]

So the Brewers' offer is three years, 33 million? And is that a player option, or a club option? If it's a club option, it's a much better deal than 4 years/44 million.

[splitterpfj]

I would sign Suppan before Padilla, based on durability.

 

I think Padilla has better stuff, and he could prove me wrong, but if I had to be safe with the money, I'd bet on Suppan first.

[splitterpfj]

Stat guys, help me out please...

 

Suppan would be filling Davis' spot in the rotation, Suppan is said to be worth 2-3 wins above replacement level. What was Davis last year in this regard?

 

If Davis was 2 wins below replacement, and Suppan is 2 wins above, is it fair to say the Brewers would be theoretically gaining 4 wins with this move?

[And That]

According to VORP, DD was 1.8 wins above replacement last year.

[Frisbee Slider]

Davis in 2006

 

7 Win Shares

3 Win Shares Above Bench (Player)

92 ERA+

 

Suppan in 2006

 

12 Win Shares

8 Win Shares Above Bench (Player)

108 ERA+

 

Doug Davis - Hardball Times

 

Jeff Suppan - Hardball Times

 

Davis = 1 win better than replacement in 2006

Suppan = 2 2/3 wins better than replacement in 2006.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm OK with signing Suppan, because waiting until next year to sign a similar player would likely cost the team about $14 million per year.

[Frisbee Slider]

Jeff Suppan graphs

 

Not sure if this was linked to before and I'm no stat expert...but these graphs confirm to me that over his career...Suppan is not much more than one peg above "major league average."

 

ERA: Above average since 2003

K/9: Well below average since 1996

BB/9: Good since 1997

K/BB: About average, whole career

HR/9: About average since 2003

AVG: about average, heh

WHIP: a tick below average, in 2006

LOB%: above average since 2003

 

Jeff Suppan = battler?

[Invader3K]

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I'm OK with signing Suppan, because waiting until next year to sign a similar player would likely cost the team about $14 million per year.

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Exactly. People are acting like FA contracts are just out of whack this year. What, do you expect them to go down next year, out of kindness from the player's union or something?