2009-07-03 Brewers (Suppan) at Chicago (Zambrano) : 1:20 PM CT [Brewers lose, 2-1]

[whizkid]

That's the problem with identifying who's hot and who's cooled off. JJ has been hotter than Casey in the last 7 games, .975 OPS to .811, .375 OBP to .269. For those who like it, what sample of games should be used?

[phxMILWfan]

I think Macha relies a little too much on individual batting matchup stats a little too much but meaningless? I don't know about that.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Let's face it, there are no slam dunk spots in the lineup outside of 3,4 and 9. I'm not a huge fan of Kendall first, but there aren't any perfect of options. If he can milk the count maybe we get into that soft bullpen earlier.

 

Didn't anticipate the wind blowing in helping them more than us so far.

[logan82]

I think Macha relies a little too much on individual batting matchup stats a little too much but meaningless? I don't know about that.

They are. They looked at it in The Book and the top 30 match ups where batters owned pitchers from 1999-2002 came out as one thire each way in 2003.(pitcher owned hitter, batter continued to own pitcher, and hitter had normal stats) Same with the top 30 situations where pitchers owned batters. Completely useless. No predictive value at all.

[topper09er]

That's the problem with identifying who's hot and who's cooled off. JJ has been hotter than Casey in the last 7 games, .975 OPS to .811, .375 OBP to .269. For those who like it, what sample of games should be used?

I think this is another Joe Morgan answer, you shouldnt need to look at stats from the last week to determine if someone is hot, you should be able to tell by their approach and the swings they are taking and the pitches they are able to lay off of. A guy who walks 4 times and is able to lay off good 2 strikes breaking pitches is just as hot as someone who went 3-3.

[whizkid]

A guying walking 4 times will have it show up in OBP.

[jeffy]

I think Macha relies a little too much on individual batting matchup stats a little too much ...

Perhaps, but then folks here fret a bit too much over batting orders. Isn't the impact of batting order on expected runs very minor?

[phxMILWfan]

I think Macha relies a little too much on individual batting matchup stats a little too much but meaningless? I don't know about that.

They are. They looked at it in The Book and the top 30 match ups where batters owned pitchers from 1999-2002 came out as one thire each way in 2003.(pitcher owned hitter, batter continued to own pitcher, and hitter had normal stats) Same with the top 30 situations where pitchers owned batters. Completely useless. No predictive value at all.

 

If I had a hitter that was 1 for 20 in his career against a pitcher, I'd sit him that day. If I had a player that was 12 for 20 against a pitcher, I'd make sure he was in the lineup that day. That might be wrong according to some study that was done but it makes sense to me. The same way players play better in one stadium vs another I see value in it. They may see the ball out of their hand better or are just more confident against them. I see value in that stat. I wouldn't go only on that though. A player being hot for the last week or two is important too.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Maybe a liner from JJ can cut through the wind.

[phxMILWfan]

I think Macha relies a little too much on individual batting matchup stats a little too much ...

Perhaps, but then folks here fret a bit too much over batting orders. Isn't the impact of batting order on expected runs very minor?

You left off the last half of what I said, changing the meaning of it. The rest of what I said made my comment pretty similar to yours.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

We'd be up 4-0 if this was last night.

[pebadger]

Boy, JJ can't buy a hit on a ball like that. He should just try to hit nubbers off the end at this point.

[pebadger]

Nothing screams RBI like getting a guy over to 2nd for Kendall.

[logan82]

phxMILWfan wrote:

If I had a hitter that was 1 for 20 in his career against a pitcher, I'd sit him that day. If I had a player that was 12 for 20 against a pitcher, I'd make sure he was in the lineup that day. That might be wrong according to some study that was done but it makes sense to me. The same way players play better in one stadium vs another I see value in it. They may see the ball out of their hand better or are just more confident against them. I see value in that stat. I wouldn't go only on that though. A player being hot for the last week or two is important too.

That's fine, but I think you are completely wrong. Go ahead and play that inferior player. In your lineups we would probably see Hall batting against RHP.

 

Macha is giving Kendall an extra at bat today. Batting orders matter very little as long as you are not doing something really crazy like batting your worst hitter leadoff. Oh wait.

[southpaw121505]

Did anyone hear Ash on the radio pregame? I caught the tail end of it but it sounded like he was describing a pitcher and I got the vibe it was a minor leaguer being called up, I could be way off on that. He was describing a sinkerballer being moved to the rotation, is Dillard being called up?

[cheesecup22]

i thought the hit by JJ was a for sure double and maybe a run with corey running.. frustrating

[topper09er]

I just think it is stupid to use career numbers for someone if they are from 10 years ago. I dont care if Kendall maybe hit Zambrano well when he was an all star in Pittsburgh, he is that player anymore and could not hit .300 against any pitcher anymore. Same thing when you try to use Bill Hall's stats from 2006, he is not that player anymore, those numbers dont apply.

[phxMILWfan]

phxMILWfan wrote:

If I had a hitter that was 1 for 20 in his career against a pitcher, I'd sit him that day. If I had a player that was 12 for 20 against a pitcher, I'd make sure he was in the lineup that day. That might be wrong according to some study that was done but it makes sense to me. The same way players play better in one stadium vs another I see value in it. They may see the ball out of their hand better or are just more confident against them. I see value in that stat. I wouldn't go only on that though. A player being hot for the last week or two is important too.

That's fine, but I think you are completely wrong. Go ahead and play that inferior player. In your lineups we would probably see Hall batting against RHP.

 

Macha is giving Kendall an extra at bat today. Batting orders matter very little as long as you are not doing something really crazy like batting your worst hitter leadoff. Oh wait.

Thats where my comment about how I wouldn't go only on that comes in. If that same hitter that was 12 for 20 was hitting .196 or whatever Hall is hitting for the season, 3 months into the season following an entire year where he didn't hit I would ignore the individual match up stats. I don't really know what we are debating here. I'm not arguing the opposite of you, all I'm saying is it isn't completely useless. If I had a team full of players that had terrible stats vs a pitcher but one guy that was hitting .400 against him, for that 1 day I'd bump him up in the lineup. I don't think that is crazy.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Only the wind to stop a complete Z meltdown.

[jeffy]

You left off the last half of what I said, changing the meaning of it. The rest of what I said made my comment pretty similar to yours.

I don't think I changed the meaning...I did not mean to imply that my comment about some worrying too much about batting orders was meant for you. I was agreeing with you that maybe he pays too much attention to individual match-up stats that, perhaps, don't mean, but then pointing out that all the fretting about batting order is also about something that does not mean much.

[pebadger]

Horrible idea by Casey.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Horrible at bat Casey.

[nate82]

At least Corey "The Rally Killer" Hart can't hit into a double play now.

[phxMILWfan]

You left off the last half of what I said, changing the meaning of it. The rest of what I said made my comment pretty similar to yours.

I don't think I changed the meaning...I did not mean to imply that my comment about some worrying too much about batting orders was meant for you. I was agreeing with you that maybe he pays too much attention to individual match-up stats that, perhaps, don't mean, but then pointing out that all the fretting about batting order is also about something that does not mean much.

Sorry, I re-read it. Don't know what I'm talking about.

 

 

 

Seriously, 2 foul pop ups with bases loaded no one out. Ouch.

[pebadger]

OK, either the Brewers make some 2-out magic and Z's head explodes, or he gets out and Suppan gets tagged in teh bottom half.